Posted on 05/28/2010 10:12:00 AM PDT by thackney
The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector index, commonly known by its ticker OSX, is based on the stock market movements of 15 oil service company components. The current members of the OSX are Baker Hughes, Cameron, Global Industries, Halliburton, Lufkin Industries, Nabors, Noble Corporation, National Oilwell Varco, Oceaneering, Rowan Companies, Transocean, Smith International, Schlumberger, Tidewater, and Weatherford. By overlaying the OSX with the Baker Hughes US Rig Count; one can make the argument that some correlation between the two may exist.
We would expect US rig market to continue tracking OSX, albeit with a slight lag. Inflection points for the OSX in 2008 and 2009 preceded turns in the US rig count by nine and fourteen weeks, respectively. After falling 69% last year from an all-time high in June 2008, the OSX doubled in value. Similarly, a parallel but slightly less severe 57% drop in the US rig count (as tracked by Baker Hughes) has been followed with a 73% rise, which continues to date.
Most recently the OSX peaked on April 23rd at 228.22, the day after the Deepwater Horizon sank. Subsequently, the index has fallen 20% as both the broader markets have been roiled by European concerns and the oil prices have begun to re-couple with fundamentals (i.e. excess inventory levels). Crude oil has fallen 14% in recent weeks.
If the recent fall of the OSX and commodities foreshadows a similar move in the US rig count, then a pullback to 1300 rigs or a 15% decline from current level of 1518 rigs would not be a huge surprise. Of the 200 rigs that would be sidelined, a split of 45% oil and 55% gas rigs removed from the count seems plausible. From a timing stand-point this assumes that approximately 445 oil rigs and 855 gas rigs will remain active as we roll from summer into fall.
If you are the owner of a multi-multi million dollar rig which can rent for 500k a day, are you going to idle your rig for 6 months while obama diddles about?
The unitended consequences of Barry’s misinformed directives will drive oil and gas prices through the roof and put tons of people out of work.
The Shell well in the Chuchki Sea is in less than 150 ft of water in possibly the richest undiscovered oil resource in the USA. Shell has been blocked from drilling for years by the envirowackos and now Obama set them back another year at least. We are our own worst enemies
Barry is not a deep thinker nor is he contemplative. He, like a child, reacts without thinking about consequences.
We really have to ask questions about the timing of this.
I'm long past the point of unintended with this crew. Anything bad that happens is intended.
If I was an American oil rig company I would seriously be considering relocating to China. It is my understanding that China, Vietnam, Cuba and Mexico all have rigs in the gulf and there is nothing US law can do about it because they are in International Waters and “flagged” to a foreign country. So essentially the only companies that will be harmed by the ban are American companies.
Cloward & Piven
see my tagline
I would be quite surprised if gasoline isn’t well above $4.00 a gallon by Labor Day.
There are over 50,000 wells in the Gulf of Mexico. Six digits for world wide well count offshore.
this is the first time (that I'm aware of) that a well has run away.
Not the first or even the tenth and not the worst, not even the worst in the Gulf of Mexico.
Brazil. By 2007 they had already leased 80% of the World's Deepwater rigs anyways.
It is my understanding that China, Vietnam, Cuba and Mexico all have rigs in the gulf and there is nothing US law can do about it because they are in International Waters and “flagged” to a foreign country.
US waters extend 200 nautical miles. There is nearly no international Waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Mexico, Cuba and some others have some smaller amounts under their jurisdiction.
US Exclusive Economic Zone
When was there a bigger leak?
1979, Ixtoc 1 by Pemex.
I believe it flowed 30,000 BPD for 9 months.
Far less cleanup and containment than ours today and much more oil.
Transocean already moved their corp domicile to Switzerland. If they proceed with this ban others could follow them. Plus these rigs and boats float..they will float away to other shores. Rates may drop a little until they find a home, but the industry will go along without us.
My company moved their headquarters and top executives to Switzerland already for what I suspect are the same reasons as Transocean.
Most of our business is now outside the US and the US Taxes are expected to continue to climb. We moved after the 2008 elections.
just waiting for the ChiComs to experience an even bigger leak on one of their Gulf rigs, and to watch the shock and horror of the MSM when they thumb their noses at us over it.
I’m just a wildass guesser on this, but I am looking for $6-8/gal. by late summer. Worst case scenario but it’s going up, I don’t know how there can be any doubt about that.
Nothing happens by accident. If someone had just farted, they would have halted all new construction of nuclear plants. The USA could have been by now like 80% nuclear, like France, but the the oil industry would have lost gazillions.
God knows what really is happening now! With all the offshore oil rigs around the world in all the countries with no EPA and every man for himself, it's odd to me that this happens in the USA.
Nothing happens by accident!
Almost no oil is used for electrical power.
80% Nuclear would effect coal and natural gas. Oil wouldn’t see a difference.
The unitended consequences of Barry’s misinformed directives will drive oil and gas prices through the roof and put tons of people out of work
That is exactly what the leftists want to happen - then they can have even more control of the government.
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