Posted on 06/02/2010 8:52:50 AM PDT by MissesBush
Just after his big Republican Primary win last month, Rand Paul led his Democratic opponent Jack Conway by 25 points in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race. Now Paul’s lead is down to just eight points.
Now, however, Paul holds a much smaller advantage. The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey finds the GOP nominee with support from 49% of the state’s voters while Conway earns 41% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
Almost all candidates receive a bounce following a big victory and Paul clearly lost his post-primary bounce. But he added to the decline by quickly stumbling out of the gate in an interview on MSNBC. During the interview, he discussed reasons for opposing the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and was immediately hit with charges of racism. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Kentucky voters say they have followed news reports about his comments on MSNBC, including 39% who have followed Very Closely.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Kentucky voters now have a favorable opinion of Paul, down from 69% percent in the previous survey. Thirty-eight percent (38%) view him unfavorably, and five percent (5%) have no opinion.
Conway is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 43%, marking virtually no change from two weeks ago. Eleven percent (11%) have no opinion of the Democrat.
Forty-five percent (45%) say the comments on MSNBC are at least somewhat important to how they will vote in November, with 25% who say they are Very Important. But slightly more voters (47%) say the comments are not very or not at all important in determining how they will vote.
Interestingly, most of those who have followed the story Very Closely support Paul, suggesting they don’t consider it that big a deal. But 76% of those who consider the comments Very Important to how they will vote now favor Conway.
Politically speaking, 39% of Democrats describe the comments as Very Important to how they will vote, a view shared by just 13% of Republicans and 17% of voters not affiliated with either major party.
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This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Kentucky was conducted on June 1, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Paul leads among male voters by more than 20 points, while Conway holds a modest lead among female voters. Unaffiliated voters prefer Paul by a 52% to 35% margin.
Sixty percent (60%) of Kentucky voters favor repeal of the national health care bill, while 32% oppose repeal. This is comparable to views nationally and includes 50% who Strongly Favor repeal and 22% who Strongly Oppose it.
Paul earns 75% of the vote from the larger group that Strongly Favors repeal. Eighty-four percent (84%) of those who Strongly Oppose repeal support Conway.
Just 22% of voters in the state believe the U.S. Department of Justice should challenge Arizona’s new immigration law in federal court as the Obama administration is reportedly considering. Sixty-one percent (61%) are against such a challenge. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say U.S. troops should be sent to the Mexican border to help stop illegal immigration.
Paul’s primary victory was credited in large part to support from so-called Tea Party voters. Thirty-one percent (31%) of voters in Kentucky consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement. That's double the national average. Fifty-three percent (53%) in the state say the movement is good for America, but 24% disagree.
John McCain carried Kentucky over Obama in the November 2008 elections by a 58% to 41% spread. Only 37% of Kentucky voters now approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 63% disapprove. This is considerably lower than the approval ratings he earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Rasmussen Reports has recently surveyed Senate races in Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin.
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Though I do have some misgivings about Paul, I am glad to see he’s not charging around the state on an apology tour, like George Allen did in VA after the “macaca” incident.
Rand Paul (son of traitorous egomaniac Ron Paul) needs to understand that the MSM is not his friend. They will do him no favors. Having said that this is Paul’s race to lose and if he loses in Kentucky he will have NOBODY to blame but himself.
Just after his big Republican Primary win last month, Rand Paul led his Democratic opponent Jack Conway by 25 points in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race. Now Paul’s lead is down to just eight points.
After all the bad press that Paul received he’s STILL up 8 pts?
That’s AWESOME!
I agree. If Paul still has the lead now, he cannot lose.
Relax. Paul will win this one unless he does something stupid.
The second is difficult for principled traditional libertarians.
Paul’s post-primary bounce was going to fade to begin with.
But what is amazing to me, after all the media did to attempt to tear him down, he has led in every poll since the phony “controversy”. In order of release: a 3 point lead (Daily Kos), a 6 point lead in SurveyUSA and now an 8 point lead.
If after all that, the best Conway can poll is trailing Paul outside the MOE with Paul above or right at 50%...it’s over for Conway. Conway has peaked already and it ain’t pretty.
I don’t see a path to victory for a Democrat in Kentucky this year. As of now, the whole race has been about Rand Paul’s negative press, and he still has led in every single poll taken. It will be hard for a Democrat to win in Kentucky, where Obama has a 37% approval rating, and where his agenda is overwhelmingly unpopular. Conway supports healthcare, cap and trade, and card check (KY is a right-to-work state). Once those views are widely known, the race will not be close.
Please... NEVER assume that.
Agreed! If anyone on our side is to address the MSM at all, it should only be to deliver a good dressing-down in the manner of NJ. Gov. Christie.
If civil rights ever comes up again, he should just say he’s “pro-choice,” not pro-racism. He thinks it’s morally wrong but he doesn’t think the government should interfere in the choice.
Being aborted is more damaging than being refused service, although both are morally wrong.
Don’t the people who favor legal abortion on demand always complain when they are described as “pro abortion?”
(Yes, it’s a flippant suggestion. But you get the point.)
I was thinking along those lines myself. I don’t much like libertarians, but I will take a couple of them over RINOs any day.
Wow! Now proud of my Governor and his style with working with the lame stream media!
I wonder where Rand stands on DODT? Being a good libertarian, he may be a champion of homosexualizing the military.
Well we now know where his pervert dad stands. Neither of the Pauls seem very good when it comes to standing up for protecting our rights at all if it touches on the aspect of securing those rights. His pervert dad Ron seems to want to force our troops to have deal with open perversion as if it was normal. Sick man.
And how often will the blood of these perverts be checked? I cannot see how anyone would want to serve with them in any capacity whereas there could be a chance of coming in contact with their blood. To me this seems to be an extreme violation of the rights of the men and woman of the Armed Forces to be told that they have to bunk, shower, etc… with people who are openly expressing a perversion for their same gender. It seems that Paul thinks this is normal behavior and that the government should force people to accept his view regardless of the fact that the majority does not accept it as normal. It would be interesting to know if his son agrees with him.
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