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Forget PIIGS, US Debt Is Out of Control (depreciation of the dollar looms)
MinyanVille ^ | 06/05/2010 | Robert Barone

Posted on 06/06/2010 8:59:15 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

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To: AzaleaCity5691
If you ended unemployment and laid off 15% of federal workers today all you would do is further harm consumer demand and make an already bad situation 5 times worse.

This is a perfect illustration of the dilemma concerning all economic and financial decisions that must be made. We have successfully been maneuvered into a damned if you do and damned if you don't position mainly by incompetence and inaction over the last 30 years.

21 posted on 06/06/2010 10:24:21 AM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: SeekAndFind
Table 2 shows estimates (for fiscal year 2010) of the Population (1), State GDP (2), State Debt/State GDP (3), Local Debt/State GDP (4), Unfunded Pension/State GDP (5), Other Unfunded Benefits/State GDP (6), Total Debt/State GDP (7), and Per Capita Debt (8) for the states mentioned in the Barron’s piece plus Michigan.

He's doing okay until he adds #5 and #6. Why would you compare a liability that's payable over decades to a GDP number that's one year? And if he does that, to show how bad off we are, he needs to add the same liability number to the debt numbers of the PIIGs.

Try again.

22 posted on 06/06/2010 10:28:02 AM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (Math is hard. Harder if you're stupid.)
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To: AzaleaCity5691

“If we want to try and bring back manufacturing to this country we’re going to need some dollar depreciation.”

It will take more than the collapse of the dollar to bring back manufacturing in this country. A factory is a high capital cost investment that requires a long term view to justify the expense. A century ago, JP Morgan (the person) and other Wall Street investors funded factories, ships, railroads and other high cost, long term capital investments that allowed this country to become the strongest industrial nation on the planet. It was that industrial might that saved western civilization in WWII. Had the US industrial base not existed, it is likely the Third Reich and Japan would be ruling the world today.

Unfortunately, the Wall Street banks and investment houses today are populated by speculators with investment time horizons of nanoseconds. Today’s bankers will lend hundreds of thousands of dollars to high credit risk low income people to buy a house with an inflated price but will not consider a loan to a small business for a $50,000 machine tool with the potential to create products of value for several decades. The mortgage loan to the low credit score individual without the income to make the payments is considered less risky than the loan to the small businessman who always pays his/her bills on time. This distortion is due to government policy. Until we change government tax and trade policies to favor long term investment in productive manufacturing assets, we will continue to fritter our national savings away and fail to create the infrastructure required for a strong middle class.


23 posted on 06/06/2010 10:30:36 AM PDT by Soul of the South (When times are tough the tough get going.)
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To: AzaleaCity5691
If you ended unemployment and laid off 15% of federal workers today all you would do is further harm consumer demand and make an already bad situation 5 times worse.

Well, this simply means that you are in effect, in agreement with what Obama and the Pelosi congress are doing. To generalize, everytime we have a recession, it would be good reason to expand the Federal payroll further... I can't help but feel that there's something wrong with this "solution".

What did Reagan do in the huge recession (stagflation) he inherited from Carter ? Did he EXPAND Federal payroll ?
24 posted on 06/06/2010 10:31:12 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: AzaleaCity5691

I respectfully disagree.

Government workers make twice what private sectoir workers make.

And the benefits and pensions are astronomical.

By cutting entitlements, the federal budget and eliminating whole departments and programs altogether and reducing the size and scope of the federal bureaucracy and channeling the savings into more productive areas would boost the economy, not threaten it.


25 posted on 06/06/2010 10:33:41 AM PDT by Ev Reeman
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To: Ev Reeman

Not really. It’s easy for someone who hasn’t studied to ratchet off that talking point but it isn’t true.

Most government offices are filled with clerical staff that make in the 30k-40k range. I’m not saying that there aren’t those who advance far beyond that but most of your office employees in a federal office will be in that range.

Plus, federal workers essentially make a lifetime commitment to the government and forgo higher private sector wages in exchange for the better benefits, insurance and pension. If you try and take that away from them the streets of every city with a federal courthouse will look like Athens because there are more families then you realize now depending on the stable income of the family member who has the federal job.


26 posted on 06/06/2010 10:38:56 AM PDT by AzaleaCity5691
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To: SeekAndFind

I don’t recall Reagan laying that many people off in 1981. What he did was cut the top tax rates that began to start spurring economic investment.

But, I also don’t need to remind you that the recession continued through 1981 and 1982 and by early 1983 unemployment was worse then it ever was under Carter and Reagan looked like a dead duck.

Reagan got a second term because when it started picking up in late 83 it picked up fast and furious and he had the distinct advantage of getting Fritz Mondale as his opponent in ‘84.


27 posted on 06/06/2010 10:41:14 AM PDT by AzaleaCity5691
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To: AzaleaCity5691

I’m not saying CUT ALL FEDERAL WORKERS.

I AM SAYING CUT OUT THE ONES THAT ARE NOT PRODUCTIVE. CLEAN HOUSE. I USED TO WORK FOR THE FEDS. I KNOW WHAT GOES ON. ONE THIRD OF ALL FEDERAL WORKERS DO ALL THE WORK AND THE OTHER TWO THIRDS SKATE BY BY DOING THE BARE MINIMUM AND NO MORE. THEY KNOW WHO THEY ARE AND THEIR CO WORKERS KNOW TOO. IT IS RATHER THE UNIONS AND THEIR BOSSES THAT PROTECT THEM FROM BEING FIRED OR LAID OFF. THAT IS WHAT THE FEDERAL BUREAUCRACY IS ALL ABOUT. THERE IS A LOT OF WASTE FRAUD AND ABUSE IN THE FEDERAL BUDGET THAT COULD BE CUT WITHOUT BATTING AN EYELASH.


28 posted on 06/06/2010 10:43:40 AM PDT by Ev Reeman
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To: AzaleaCity5691
Informal depreciation of the dollar is already occurring. I was saving for a Canon 300 mm 2.8L lens. In January of 2008, it cost around 3K. Now, it's 4500, and is up $500 since January. The high end camera lenses are good meters for actual monetary depreciation because of the precision grinding of the lenses and mechanical complexity of the device. There is a floor for manufacturing cost which won't be overcome by technological advances.

Similarly, the Canon 1D MK IV camera is $1000 more than it's predecessor, the Mark III. Canon strives to make the new version of a camera match the old version in price. Canon and Nikon are in a blood war for the high end professional camera market, and keep each other honest on price.

The clowns in Washington are printing money as fast as they can (or adding numbers to the database) and the Arabs and N. Koreans are counterfeiting money.

They can control the rate of exchange, but foreign manufacturers will raise the price of products, regardless of what the governments dictate.

29 posted on 06/06/2010 10:46:08 AM PDT by Richard Kimball (We're all criminals. They just haven't figured out what some of us have done yet.)
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To: AzaleaCity5691
Most government offices are filled with clerical staff that make in the 30k-40k range.

Not any more. The average federal worker's salary is now $71,000, compared with $40,000 in the private sector. And that's before benefits.

In the last 18 months the number of federal workers making more than $100,000 went from 14% to 19%.

Source

Federal pay is completely out of control.

30 posted on 06/06/2010 10:46:54 AM PDT by Gideon7
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To: The_Reader_David
Yeah, devaluation's worked wonders for the inhabitants of the countries that have tried it - just go ask the Venezuelans and the Argentines (they've got plenty of spare time to talk to you, after all, considering how moribund their economies are).


31 posted on 06/06/2010 10:50:35 AM PDT by Oceander (The Price of Freedom is Eternal Vigilance -- Thos. Jefferson)
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To: Gideon7

Is that mean or is that average?

I’ll give you an example. Here is firm A

300 workers make $35,000 a year. They are overseen by $100,000 making managers and there’s 100 of them (I know that ratio is less than realistic but I’m making a point here)

Now, the 100 managers make $10,000,000 combined and the workers they oversee make $10,500,000 combined and you get a total payroll of $20,500,000. Now, take that and divide it by 400 and you come up with $51,520.

Now, no one in that firm is making $51,520 but thats the average salary because that’s how you calculate a salary.

A far better guide of what salaries really are would be to find the mean but to compute the mean would require every salary stub in America and would be far more difficult to accomplish. No one wants to do that work. It’s easier to get the broad based average.

There are many overpaid federal workers but most of them are those who have some kind of advanced degree and who’s degree was the main qualifier for their job. I have had neighbors who were federal workers and I’ve had some business associates with federal worker wives.

For every 1 federal worker making $150,000 a year you have 5 office ladies at GS-5 making around $40,000. And an interest note, if you run up those numbers you come up with an average of $70,000.

Averages are a great statistic to use in many areas, but incomes for sector workers has always been known to be a bad one. Like with attorneys. Yes, the average salary for attorneys is around $100,000 but that’s only because you have a lot of 2 mil + attorneys canceling out all the shingle guys who struggle to bring in 60k in a year and apply that same rubric to any profession including medicine.

A far better determinant is mean salary but somehow I doubt any of us will do the work to determine the mean.


32 posted on 06/06/2010 11:09:04 AM PDT by AzaleaCity5691
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To: Richard Kimball

Eventually the idea would be that this would make foreign products untenable in the American market driving foreign producers to either produce in America to continue accessing our market or it would drive domestic interests to start bringing back manufacturing.

Most people seem to think we don’t have manufacturing capacity. We have a lot of equipment in old manufacturing plants just dying to be used if their was demand. Our manufacturing sector is dead because we simply can’t be profitable doing it.

A depreciated dollar could reverse that trend.


33 posted on 06/06/2010 11:11:43 AM PDT by AzaleaCity5691
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To: AzaleaCity5691
The typical federal worker is paid 20% more than a private-sector worker in the same occupation.

Median annual salary: Federal: $66,591, Private: $55,000, Difference: $11,091.

From BLS statistics. Federal Pay Ahead of Private Industry (USA Today)

34 posted on 06/06/2010 11:18:36 AM PDT by Gideon7
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