Posted on 06/15/2010 7:52:59 AM PDT by jhpigott
By Peter Zeihan
STRATFOR often discusses how Russia is on a bit of a roll. The U.S. distraction in the Middle East has offered Russia a golden opportunity to re-establish its spheres of influence in the region, steadily expanding the Russian zone of control into a shape that is eerily reminiscent of the old Soviet Union. Since 2005, when this process began, Russia has clearly reasserted itself as the dominant power in Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Ukraine, and has intimidated places like Georgia and Turkmenistan into a sort of silent acquiescence. But we have not spent a great amount of time explaining why this is the case. It is undeniable that Russia is a Great Power, but few things in geopolitics are immutable, and Russia is no exception. Russian Geography, Strategy and Demographics Russia’s geography is extremely open, with few geographic barriers to hunker behind. There are no oceans, mountains or deserts to protect Russia from outside influences — or armies — and Russia’s forests, which might provide some measure of protection, are on the wrong side of the country. The Russian taiga is in the north and, as such, can only provide refuge for Russians after the country’s more economically useful parts have already fallen to invaders (as during the Mongol occupation). Despite its poor geographic hand, Russia has managed to cope via a three-part strategy: Lay claim to as large a piece of land as possible. Flood it with ethnic Russians to assert reliable control.
(Excerpt) Read more at stratfor.com ...
ping
Uzbekistan as Russia’s rival for influence in Central Asia. Interesting thought.
The U.S. distraction in the Middle East has offered Russia a golden opportunity to re-establish its spheres of influence in the region, steadily expanding the Russian zone of control into a shape that is eerily reminiscent of the old Soviet Union.s/b, the Obama administration's steady abandonment of US allies around the world has served as a signal to Putin and his proxies to re-create the Soviet Union.
Putin’s goal has always been to reestablish the USSR.
Amateurish analysis. There is no threat to Russian borders as long as Russia has all those nuclear warheads.
Exactly. Russians are holding Uzbekistan by the balls same way they do to other Central Asian nations. Uzbekistan is on same life support from millions of illegals working in Russia sending their money home. As soon as they are to be sent back by planeloads, like Geogians in 2004, Uzbekistan will be destabilized too. In contrast with Georgia, Uzbecs doesn’t have good Uncle Sam to pay the damage of anti-Russian policy since they are in bed with Al-Qaeda and under critisism for their civil right problems.
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