Skip to comments.Scientists: Oil leaking up to 2.52M gallons daily
Posted on 06/15/2010 2:37:24 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
NEW ORLEANS Scientists provided a new estimate for the size of the Gulf oil spill on Tuesday that indicates it could be worse than previously thought.
A government panel of scientists said that the ruptured well is leaking between 1.47 million and 2.52 million gallons a day of oil. That is an increase over previous estimates that put the maximum size of the spill at 2.1 million gallons per day.
"This estimate brings together several scientific methodologies and the latest information from the sea floor, and represents a significant step forward in our effort to put a number on the oil that is escaping from BP's well," Energy Secretary Steven Chu said in a statement.
The latest numbers reflect an increase in the flow that scientists believe happened after undersea robots earlier this month cut off a kinked pipe near the sea floor that was believed to be restricting the flow of oil, just as a bend in a garden hose reduces water flow. BP officials has estimated that cutting the kinked pipe likely increased the flow by up 20 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Heckuva job, Barry!
And who says we can’t get much more energy from offshore?
This sounds like one damn big well!
Huh? Increase? Huh? What? Read that again. Huh?
Just in time for POtuS Big Adventure tonight.
From 1,000 per day to 20,000 per day to up to 60,000 per day to 2.5 million a day. See the pattern here? It keeps going up!
Was that an oil engineer? Whatever an “oil engineer” is.
Every other day, they pull a new number out of their a$$.
can you link the thread/post this is on?
Aren’t you full of good news! :( This oil thing is beginning to freak me out. Maybe a collapse will close it off!
Apparently they don’t thing we can handle the truth and they are using some sort of incremental method in releasing the true figures. Kinda scary!
Why do they measure the leak in gallons and the recovered oil in barrels?
The reason why there is a 1 million gallon (or approximately 20,000 barrel) difference between the high and the low estimates is because there is so much natural gas in the formation, the flow has been extremely inconsistent. If you look at the actual figures BP is producing, they are recovering about 18,000 barrels of oil and water emulsion, and flaring off several million cubic feet of gas. As the gas rises it expands many times in volume and it directly effects how much oil can make it up the pipe to the surface.
The gas in this reserve is what has troubled this well from the very start. I recall reading that one of the reasons why the concrete seals failed is because there was likely bits of liquid methane that leaked into the concrete when it was being set, and as the concrete cured and heated up, the gas expanded and forced the concrete particles apart, ruining the seal. I’m not sure there is anything to be done about that once that happens except to immediately move to plug the well, but it’s clear they didn’t do that.
It’s a shame they have to flare that gas off instead of trying to capture it for resale but under these extreme circumstances there is nothing else to be done.
As I write this the new estimate of flow is 35,000 to 60,000 barrels per day...
This is the question I just asked before seeing your post. Can anyone tell me how many gallons are in a barrel?
Want your name in the news? Top the previous doomsayer.
@ 55 gallons in a barrel
Oil is measured at 42 gal/barrel
“Oil has not actually been shipped in barrels  since the introduction of oil tankers, but the 42-US-gallon size is still used as a unit for measurement, pricing, and in tax and regulatory codes. Each barrel is refined into about 19.74 US gallons (16.44 imp gal; 74.7 L) of gasoline, the rest becoming other products such as jet fuel and heating oil, using fractional distillation.
The current standard volume for barrels for chemicals and food is 55 US gallons (46 imp gal; 208 L).”
It’s 42 gallons per barrel, different than the 55 gal. oil drum sitting in the garage.
don’t confuse barrels with gallons
some estimates describe the leak in terms of barrels, others use gallons which sounds lots worse
I’m sure the dum dum press is not careful about this
Because then the leak looks WAY bigger. Just like with “global warming” and CO2 - it is always in tons of CO2. 2,000,000,000 tons of CO2 looks like a huge problem. Expressed as 0.4 % of the atmosphere - not so much.
NOT to minimize the awful effects of this oil leak - but I imagine that they are trying to make it look as bad for BP and “Big Oil” as possible.
I was reading that earlier and had to stop. Ominous doesn’t come close to describing the possible destruction if that thing cannot be stopped or worse, if that thing collapses on itself and opens up the seabed. I don’t think most people can get their minds around such a calamity.
Thats a drum.
Heres a good article from 2009 about the first of its kind deep water rig (BP). Amazing the difficult conditions and the technology required to overcome it. They are producing lots of oil with no problem at this site (Thunder Horse) - with flow rates of up to 50,000 barrels/day per well (and multiple wells from one rig).
One of the most obvious challenges for BP was the location of the project (Thunder Horse Project, 2009) in ultra deepwater in a region notorious for both loop currents and the menace of hurricanes. A new generation of drilling rigs, such as the derrick rigs on the Discoverer Enterprise drillship and the PDQ had to be designed for these extremes.
The project also had to deal with reservoir temperatures up to 270º F (132° C), pressures up to 18,000 psi (124 MPa), and reservoir flow rates of up to 50,000 b/d of oil per well.
I just saw your post; & I checked my figures about Imperial gallons in a drum— you are closer than I was in #23. I was going on memory; where, I guess we always just rounded down & called them “45 gallon drums”. (45.797 gallon drum, just doesn’t roll easily off the tongue.)
“Because then the leak looks WAY bigger. Just like with global warming and CO2 - it is always in tons of CO2. 2,000,000,000 tons of CO2 looks like a huge problem. Expressed as 0.4 % of the atmosphere - not so much.”
I completely agree with your point. In fact, the exaggeration about CO2 is an order-of-magnitude greater; it being only 0.04% of the atmosphere.
You are right. The EPA made pretend the air was not dangerous in New York during the Twin Towers attack and clean up and it was very dangerous, actually. I think that deception is going on with this oil spill and clean up. That is scarey!
Thanks. (I’m surprised I was only a decimal point off!) I should be careful when I’m just tossing numbers out there like that and say “or something like that”. Although I bet I’ve done stuff like that 1,000,000 times and no one ever notices or says anything. ;)
That site is run by a bunch of eco snots, so not sure I would trust it. That is what I am comforting myself with for now anyway. It read like a really bad sci-fi movie. If it gets that bad, we should just nuke it.
..the oil well core could collapse and release the entire oil supply uncontrolled.
Can we make it wait until October. :-)
Members of the media photograph U.S. oil company executives before they testify on the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico during a House Energy and Commerce hearing on Capitol Hill, June 15, 2010. REUTERS/Larry Downing
Amazing stuff, and it demonstrates that this technology really is the “tip of the spear” for the Nation’s energy needs.
It also reinforces the extreme conditions that this oil is produced from, and how close to the edge of disaster this whole industry operates on a regular basis. We civilians take all of this for granted, and I admit I had no idea how complicated all of this is until this disaster occurred. I’ve learned more about offshore drilling in the last 2 months than I ever imagined I would want to know, and the people out there running this have my deep respect.
The industry is going to change again because of this, in ways we could not have envisioned without this disaster. Thunder Horse worked out, and that encouraged exploring at the Macondo site, but the Macondo reserve may well be too difficult to develop with existing technology; but that only means that there is already a bunch of engineers who are trying to figure out how to do this better.
It’s how all industry progresses.
I am overwhelmed with the certainty of Chu's report.
Biden warned us that something like this would happen. Have faith. 0bama will roll back the oceans like he promised, in his own good time, and then he'll fix that leak with his mighty middle finger.
It could happen then or who knows ?
The Bureaucrats are involved now. Everything they do, makes the problem worse.
I read a month ago that they drilled this well into a field deemed larger than the fields in Saudi Arabia.
“The Bureaucrats are involved now...”
GWB let the banksters pick our pockets so cleanly in September ‘08, that the Enviroweenies are lining up to “get theirs” now...
If the cement plug in the wellbore was bad, then there was initially a small channel in the plug that oil and gas could leak through. No doubt, the channel through the plug has increased in size over time, as the oil carrying sand and other solids with it erodes the plug.
There are 42 gallons in a stock tank barrel, the standard measure of crude oil.