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GOP Poll Shows Rodriguez (D, TX-23) In Trouble
Hotline On Call ^ | 6/17/10 | Reid Wilson

Posted on 06/18/2010 5:57:53 AM PDT by randita

GOP Poll Shows Rodriguez In Trouble

June 17, 2010 11:26 AM

By Reid Wilson

Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX) faces a tough re-election bid against an Hispanic GOPer the party is excited about, according to a new survey for attorney Quico Canseco's (R) campaign.

Rodriguez leads Canseco by a narrow 48%-45% margin, according to the survey, and the Dem doesn't have a lot of backup. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Pres. Obama both have overwhelmingly negative images, and GOPers lead the generic ballot test by 5 points.

Canseco is little-known, and he doesn't have a huge amount of cash to spend on the race; Canseco only had $28K in the bank as of March 31, just after the GOP primary and runoff.

But he has the ability to put at least some money into his own race. Canseco already owes himself $967K, all but $56K of which is from his unsuccessful '08 bid, when he lost in the primary.

National GOPers wanted Canseco to win the primary, and they've listed him as an "On the Radar" Young Gun contender -- the lowest of the 3 tiers. Still, he could give GOPers a chance in the sprawling district, which takes in the San Antonio suburbs in the east and the El Paso suburbs out west. Canseco will have to make inroads with Hispanic voters, who make up 65% of the district.

Rodriguez hasn't had the easiest time keeping his seat, which he won in '06 after serving in a differently-drawn district for 3 terms prior. Rodriguez took 54% in an '06 runoff against ex-Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) and 56% against Bexar Co. Commis. Lyle Larson (R) in '08.

The poll, conducted by GOP firm OnMessage Inc. for Canseco's campaign, tested 550 likely voters between May 11-13 for a margin of error of +/- 4.1%.

Update: "This poll shows that Rep. Rodriguez already has a lead in a swing district, but he is taking nothing for granted," said Jesse Ferguson, a DCCC spokesperson. "That's why he travels through the 20 counties of the district regularly and stays in touch with his constituents. He has broad support from families across the district because of his independent-minded approach and you can see this from his last election where he outperformed President Obama."


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: democrats; keyhouseraces; khr; texas; texas23; ushouse

1 posted on 06/18/2010 5:57:53 AM PDT by randita
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To: InterceptPoint; Clintonfatigued; Impy

Key House Races Ping!


2 posted on 06/18/2010 5:58:29 AM PDT by randita (Visit keyhouseraces.com for a list of vulnerable DEM and must hold GOP House seats.)
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To: randita; InterceptPoint

Yes!

We might also look at Roy Morales running for CD 29 in the Houston area. He did quite well in the Houston Mayors race and might be a sleeper this year.

http://roymorales.com/bio/2


3 posted on 06/18/2010 6:03:43 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: texasredhead8712; TexKat; ValerieTexas; AdmSmith; Berosus; bigheadfred; blueyon; ...

Thanks randita.


4 posted on 06/18/2010 6:16:06 AM PDT by SunkenCiv ("Fools learn from experience. I prefer to learn from the experience of others." -- Otto von Bismarck)
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To: randita
Make a quicko contribution for Quico.

Canseco for Congress

5 posted on 06/18/2010 6:26:40 AM PDT by Gritty-Kitty
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To: randita

Man, the margin between them is tight (much closer than I would expect).


6 posted on 06/18/2010 6:33:37 AM PDT by Army Air Corps (Four fried chickens and a coke)
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To: randita
I was once an auditor for the FEC and participated in an audit of Ciro in San Antonio. I was surprised at how much of his financial support came from outside the district. More accurately, surprised at how little financial support there was in his district. Ole Ciro was a huge Barny Frank supporter. I don't think his folks knew that.
7 posted on 06/18/2010 7:03:26 AM PDT by cpa4you (CPA4YOU)
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To: Gritty-Kitty
Make a quicko contribution for Quico.

I'm not ready to make a contribution until I research him, since he wasn't on my radar. I will check on him, as I hope many Freepers will, and I'll be sending a BIG donation if he passes muster.

8 posted on 06/18/2010 7:06:32 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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To: cpa4you

Someone ought to get that message to Canseco.


9 posted on 06/18/2010 7:06:42 AM PDT by La Lydia
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To: cpa4you; randita; AuH2ORepublican; Clintonfatigued; fieldmarshaldj

That’s not shocking since Ciro originally represented a different district.


10 posted on 06/18/2010 10:23:29 AM PDT by Impy (DROP. OUT. MARK. KIRK.)
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To: ExTexasRedhead; ml/nj; Lady GOP; GOP_Lady; Candor7; patriot08; BP2; SatinDoll; pissant; ...

Ping!!!


11 posted on 06/18/2010 12:29:30 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: randita; txmissy; culpeper; rimtop56; carjic; patriot08; ezoeni; Yehuda; Texas Gal; RC one; ...

TX-23 ping!

If you want on, or off this S. Texas/Mexico ping list, please FReepMail me.


12 posted on 06/18/2010 9:36:33 PM PDT by SwinneySwitch (They died for liberty, not so that oppression might spring from nearer tyrants. The Whiskey Rebels)
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To: SwinneySwitch

I sure hope Solly and Solly, Jr. get beat this year. TX-27 seems to be off the radar for most pollsters.


13 posted on 06/18/2010 9:48:57 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: cpa4you; randita; La Lydia; Impy; SwinneySwitch
Ole Ciro was a huge Barny Frank supporter. I don't think his folks knew that.

Does he stand behind Barney or if front of him?

14 posted on 06/18/2010 9:52:41 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: randita

Nighty nite Ciro ...

15 posted on 06/18/2010 10:14:34 PM PDT by Liberty Valance (Keep a simple manner for a happy life :o)
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To: CPT Clay
We might also look at Roy Morales running for CD 29 in the Houston area.
Who is the Dem incumbent in that District?
16 posted on 06/19/2010 3:30:53 AM PDT by no dems (I never thought I could loathe anyone more than the Clintons; enter Barack Hussein Obama.)
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To: randita

Unfortunately, Republicans will not do well in heavily Hispanic congressional districts this year. Bush won in 04 with 40% of the Hispanic vote. We’ve shot ourself in the foot with a really big and growing demographic group.


17 posted on 06/19/2010 8:25:46 AM PDT by DaGman
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To: randita

In Texas, when in doubt, bet on the Dem losing.


18 posted on 06/19/2010 3:50:08 PM PDT by Eleutheria5 ( Two-state solution: A bad idea whose time has gone.)
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To: no dems

Mean Gene Green.


19 posted on 06/19/2010 4:35:28 PM PDT by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: randita; stevie_d_64; Bigun; humblegunner; Xenalyte
This is great news and a place Texas FReepers might want to give. This district went for Bush in 04 and McCain.

It is one of two districts we can take over this year, the other being Chet Edwards.

20 posted on 06/19/2010 4:43:30 PM PDT by HoustonCurmudgeon ("I'll try to be NICER, if you will try to be SMARTER!" ~ MNJohnnie, FReeper)
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To: CPT Clay
Roy is a nice guy who has no chance of beating Green.
21 posted on 06/19/2010 4:45:02 PM PDT by HoustonCurmudgeon ("I'll try to be NICER, if you will try to be SMARTER!" ~ MNJohnnie, FReeper)
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To: HoustonCurmudgeon

Never ceases to amaze me how someone like this running for a political office, in this kind of contentious political atmosphere, can be “listed” as an “on the radar” candidate...

When we need every single one running to win...The leadership is still playing like this is just another election...

Pathetic...


22 posted on 06/20/2010 4:24:52 PM PDT by stevie_d_64 (I'm jus' sayin')
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To: CPT Clay
OMGoodness; how I'd love to see a Pubbie take that seat from Gene Green. Do you have any polling data on that race? I know that all of the city of Houston is HEAVILY HISPANIC. What do you think are Mr. Morales chances?
23 posted on 06/20/2010 8:11:35 PM PDT by no dems (Palin/Jindal in 2012 or Jindal/Palin in 2012. Either is fine with me.)
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To: DaGman
We’ve shot ourself in the foot with a really big and growing demographic group.

Excuse me, but how do you explain the narrow margin in this district -- which is 65% Hispanic.

Note as well that the Republican challengers have been competitive in this district since it was first formed.

It's designed to produce a Hispanic congressman. Yet, the GOP is very competitive in the district.

How do you explain that?

Fact is that the party's tough stand on amnesty is NOT a vote-killer among legal and long-term Hispanic citizens.

Most Hispanics vote the way they do, not because they are "Hispanic", but because of their demographics. Income and education have more to do with it than ethnicity.

24 posted on 06/20/2010 8:29:31 PM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA: Ignorance on Parade)
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To: randita

“This poll shows that Rep. Rodriguez already has a lead in a swing district, but he is taking nothing for granted,” said Jesse Ferguson, a DCCC spokesperson. “That’s why he travels through the 20 counties of the district regularly and stays in touch with his constituents. He has broad support from families across the district because of his independent-minded approach and you can see this from his last election where he outperformed President Obama.”

What a load of crap! He hardly ever goes to the hinterland towns, and didn’t even schedule visits until right before the Republican primary when there was a tight race between Canseco and Will Hurd.

He’s a tool and needs to be replaced. Canseco’s not my guy because of his “gotta have a hispanic surname to win” race-baiting, but he’s the candidate.

Colonel, USAFR


25 posted on 06/20/2010 8:36:44 PM PDT by jagusafr (Don't make deals with pirates)
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To: jagusafr

I’m stuck with the RAT Charlie Gonzalez. Ciro is a shade better. Still would be happy to see the GOP pick up that seat.


26 posted on 06/20/2010 8:49:00 PM PDT by Tuxedo (Got to keep the loonies on the path...)
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To: Tuxedo

Charlie’s a friend of mine and a complete and bitter disappointment as a congressman. He was a truly excellent district court judge, but has turned into his dad without the spine of steel (no matter what you thought of his politics, Henry B. Gonzalez said what he meant). I’d love to see him trounced, if for no other reason than to remind people that (like the Mass. race) this isn’t a Gonzalez seat, it’s the people’s seat.

Colonel, USAFR


27 posted on 06/20/2010 8:56:25 PM PDT by jagusafr (Don't make deals with pirates)
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To: DaGman
The desire to protect our sovereignty against vermin sneaking illegally into our country offends a large segment of Hispanics?

IF that's true - and I don't concede it except for the sake of argument - I'm at a loss as to what long-term benefit could be gained by courting them. Unless the election of sovereignty destroyers with “R” opposed to “D” next to their name matter a lot to you.

Hank

28 posted on 06/20/2010 8:58:58 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Where's the diversity on MSNBC? Olbermann, Schultz, Matthews, Maddow.....all white males!)
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To: no dems; CPT Clay; randita; AuH2ORepublican; Clintonfatigued; InterceptPoint

TX-29 would be a very tough one. Bush even with home state advantage lost it twice by low double digits. McCain lost it by 24 points.

Under ideal circumstances that seat can vote 51% Republican. However unless Green develops some kind of scandal I’d call it safe rat.

But good luck to Mr. Morales. We need to maintain a presence in urban districts.


29 posted on 06/21/2010 12:38:39 AM PDT by Impy (DROP. OUT. MARK. KIRK.)
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To: Impy

The TX-29 is very tough for us because not only does the CD’s Hispanic majority vote Democrat, so do its blue-collar Anglos. Gene Green is well entrenched, having survived several tough Democrat primaries and changes in district lines, but that doesn’t mean that Morales can’t catch fire and make the race competitive.


30 posted on 06/21/2010 4:11:43 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: jagusafr

Wish I could vote for Lamar Smith. Don’t want to move though.


31 posted on 06/21/2010 6:00:42 AM PDT by Tuxedo (Got to keep the loonies on the path...)
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To: Impy

But good luck to Mr. Morales. We need to maintain a presence in urban districts.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
And in the Hispanic community.


32 posted on 06/21/2010 4:31:44 PM PDT by no dems (Palin/Jindal in 2012 or Jindal/Palin in 2012. Either is fine with me.)
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To: no dems; AuH2ORepublican; WOSG; DrewsDad; basil; Allegra

I just know that Roy is an honorable guy. He ran a great race for Mayor of Houston last year. Races like this could be a sleeper in a year like this.


33 posted on 06/21/2010 9:49:35 PM PDT by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: okie01
"Excuse me, but how do you explain the narrow margin in this district -- which is 65% Hispanic."

I explain it by the fact that this district takes in a large part of the heavily Anglo northside of San Antonio. This ncludes the Dominion area NW of SA where George Strait, and others live.

34 posted on 06/22/2010 6:21:08 AM PDT by DaGman
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To: DaGman
This ncludes the Dominion area NW of SA where George Strait, and others live.

Which supports my contention that the GOP share of the Hispanic vote is not necessarily a result of ethnicity -- but is driven by demographics (specifically, income/education).

35 posted on 06/22/2010 8:51:06 AM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA: Ignorance on Parade)
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To: okie01

All politics are driven by income and education. The higher the education and income, the more likely someone is to participate in politics. But I don’t think income and education determine political philosophy as a rule. I’ve yet to see any research that asserts this in an unchallengeable way.


36 posted on 06/22/2010 11:41:23 AM PDT by DaGman
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To: DaGman; okie01

That district was GOP held before the courts stuck a chunk of heavily rat southern San An in it.

A district that like TX-23 is a lot different from an urban Hispanic seat.


37 posted on 06/22/2010 5:40:56 PM PDT by Impy (DROP. OUT. MARK. KIRK.)
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To: Impy

Well said. The way you win a 65% Hispanic swing district? RUN A HISPANIC REPUBLICAN! This is why this is a winnable race now.


38 posted on 06/22/2010 6:59:37 PM PDT by WOSG (OPERATION RESTORE AMERICAN FREEDOM - NOVEMBER, 2010 - DO YOUR PART!)
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