Posted on 06/18/2010 5:57:53 AM PDT by randita
GOP Poll Shows Rodriguez In Trouble
June 17, 2010 11:26 AM
By Reid Wilson
Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX) faces a tough re-election bid against an Hispanic GOPer the party is excited about, according to a new survey for attorney Quico Canseco's (R) campaign.
Rodriguez leads Canseco by a narrow 48%-45% margin, according to the survey, and the Dem doesn't have a lot of backup. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Pres. Obama both have overwhelmingly negative images, and GOPers lead the generic ballot test by 5 points.
Canseco is little-known, and he doesn't have a huge amount of cash to spend on the race; Canseco only had $28K in the bank as of March 31, just after the GOP primary and runoff.
But he has the ability to put at least some money into his own race. Canseco already owes himself $967K, all but $56K of which is from his unsuccessful '08 bid, when he lost in the primary.
National GOPers wanted Canseco to win the primary, and they've listed him as an "On the Radar" Young Gun contender -- the lowest of the 3 tiers. Still, he could give GOPers a chance in the sprawling district, which takes in the San Antonio suburbs in the east and the El Paso suburbs out west. Canseco will have to make inroads with Hispanic voters, who make up 65% of the district.
Rodriguez hasn't had the easiest time keeping his seat, which he won in '06 after serving in a differently-drawn district for 3 terms prior. Rodriguez took 54% in an '06 runoff against ex-Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) and 56% against Bexar Co. Commis. Lyle Larson (R) in '08.
The poll, conducted by GOP firm OnMessage Inc. for Canseco's campaign, tested 550 likely voters between May 11-13 for a margin of error of +/- 4.1%.
Update: "This poll shows that Rep. Rodriguez already has a lead in a swing district, but he is taking nothing for granted," said Jesse Ferguson, a DCCC spokesperson. "That's why he travels through the 20 counties of the district regularly and stays in touch with his constituents. He has broad support from families across the district because of his independent-minded approach and you can see this from his last election where he outperformed President Obama."
Never ceases to amaze me how someone like this running for a political office, in this kind of contentious political atmosphere, can be “listed” as an “on the radar” candidate...
When we need every single one running to win...The leadership is still playing like this is just another election...
Pathetic...
Excuse me, but how do you explain the narrow margin in this district -- which is 65% Hispanic.
Note as well that the Republican challengers have been competitive in this district since it was first formed.
It's designed to produce a Hispanic congressman. Yet, the GOP is very competitive in the district.
How do you explain that?
Fact is that the party's tough stand on amnesty is NOT a vote-killer among legal and long-term Hispanic citizens.
Most Hispanics vote the way they do, not because they are "Hispanic", but because of their demographics. Income and education have more to do with it than ethnicity.
“This poll shows that Rep. Rodriguez already has a lead in a swing district, but he is taking nothing for granted,” said Jesse Ferguson, a DCCC spokesperson. “That’s why he travels through the 20 counties of the district regularly and stays in touch with his constituents. He has broad support from families across the district because of his independent-minded approach and you can see this from his last election where he outperformed President Obama.”
What a load of crap! He hardly ever goes to the hinterland towns, and didn’t even schedule visits until right before the Republican primary when there was a tight race between Canseco and Will Hurd.
He’s a tool and needs to be replaced. Canseco’s not my guy because of his “gotta have a hispanic surname to win” race-baiting, but he’s the candidate.
Colonel, USAFR
I’m stuck with the RAT Charlie Gonzalez. Ciro is a shade better. Still would be happy to see the GOP pick up that seat.
Charlie’s a friend of mine and a complete and bitter disappointment as a congressman. He was a truly excellent district court judge, but has turned into his dad without the spine of steel (no matter what you thought of his politics, Henry B. Gonzalez said what he meant). I’d love to see him trounced, if for no other reason than to remind people that (like the Mass. race) this isn’t a Gonzalez seat, it’s the people’s seat.
Colonel, USAFR
IF that's true - and I don't concede it except for the sake of argument - I'm at a loss as to what long-term benefit could be gained by courting them. Unless the election of sovereignty destroyers with “R” opposed to “D” next to their name matter a lot to you.
Hank
TX-29 would be a very tough one. Bush even with home state advantage lost it twice by low double digits. McCain lost it by 24 points.
Under ideal circumstances that seat can vote 51% Republican. However unless Green develops some kind of scandal I’d call it safe rat.
But good luck to Mr. Morales. We need to maintain a presence in urban districts.
The TX-29 is very tough for us because not only does the CD’s Hispanic majority vote Democrat, so do its blue-collar Anglos. Gene Green is well entrenched, having survived several tough Democrat primaries and changes in district lines, but that doesn’t mean that Morales can’t catch fire and make the race competitive.
Wish I could vote for Lamar Smith. Don’t want to move though.
But good luck to Mr. Morales. We need to maintain a presence in urban districts.
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And in the Hispanic community.
I just know that Roy is an honorable guy. He ran a great race for Mayor of Houston last year. Races like this could be a sleeper in a year like this.
I explain it by the fact that this district takes in a large part of the heavily Anglo northside of San Antonio. This ncludes the Dominion area NW of SA where George Strait, and others live.
Which supports my contention that the GOP share of the Hispanic vote is not necessarily a result of ethnicity -- but is driven by demographics (specifically, income/education).
All politics are driven by income and education. The higher the education and income, the more likely someone is to participate in politics. But I don’t think income and education determine political philosophy as a rule. I’ve yet to see any research that asserts this in an unchallengeable way.
That district was GOP held before the courts stuck a chunk of heavily rat southern San An in it.
A district that like TX-23 is a lot different from an urban Hispanic seat.
Well said. The way you win a 65% Hispanic swing district? RUN A HISPANIC REPUBLICAN! This is why this is a winnable race now.
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