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For House Democrats: More Favorable Terrain Than 94
Sabato's Crystal Ball ^ | 6/24/10 | Rhodes Cook

Posted on 06/24/2010 6:29:27 AM PDT by randita

For House Democrats: More Favorable Terrain Than ‘94

Rhodes Cook, Senior Columnist June 24th, 2010

Editor’s Note: Following last week’s article by Prof. Alan Abramowitz comparing 1994 and 2010 on the basis of open seat races, noted political author and Wall Street Journal online columnist Rhodes Cook delves into the differences between the “political terrain” of 1994 and that facing Democrats today. His smart commentary and scholarly analysis serves as a call to look beneath the surface and he offers a much-needed glimpse at the partisan and regional factors which will make or break this year for both political parties. Those who want to see exactly where Republicans and Democrats will be fighting hardest, and why, will find this piece a definite must-read. - Larry J. Sabato

When the Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives in 1994, one of their main problems was the political terrain on which they had to fight. While many political observers find the present electoral environment to be eerily similar with that of 1994, not nearly as many House Democrats are as exposed as they were then.

Fully half of the Democratic seats in that strongly anti-incumbent, anti-Democratic election 16 years ago were in districts that had voted for the Republican presidential ticket in one or both of the previous two presidential elections. This time, just one third of Democratic seats are in similarly problematic territory.

(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: keyhouseraces; khr; ushouse
This is a long article, but worth a read. I believe the author should have gone back three presidential elections for the basis of his analysis rather than just two.

At Key House Races, we have a chart showing the races we are following which charts the district's presidential voting history back to 2000 - Key Races Three-Year Presidential Voting History Chart

Forty three of the districts we are tracking favored the Republican for President in the last three elections by an average margin of 5% or more. There are additional ones favoring the Republican by a smaller average margin. In some cases, there were large swings toward Obama in reliably Republican districts, skewing the average.

If the author had considered the possibility that 2000 and 2004 were indicative of a district's lean and that 2008 was an anomaly, his analysis would show larger Republican projections for this year.

1 posted on 06/24/2010 6:29:34 AM PDT by randita
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To: InterceptPoint; Impy; Clintonfatigued; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Minus_The_Bear; Crichton

Ping


2 posted on 06/24/2010 6:30:35 AM PDT by randita (Visit keyhouseraces.com for a list of vulnerable DEM and must hold GOP House seats.)
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To: randita

I would like to see what the author said about the ‘94 races before they were held. I only recall Robert Novak talking about a Republican takeover of the house prior to the election and he only did that a few weeks before the election took place.


3 posted on 06/24/2010 6:35:59 AM PDT by vbmoneyspender (e)
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To: randita

The fact that it is necessary to compare the upcoming mid-term election to 1994 is telling indeed. And there was no Tea Party movement this time. The GOP is facing heavy pressure to actually represent popular will rather than go along to get along as before.

America’s future for a generation to come may well hang in the balance come November.


4 posted on 06/24/2010 6:37:27 AM PDT by walford (http://natural-law-natural-religion.blogspot.com/)
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To: randita

If Larry Sabato has anything to do with something, I ignore it. I can’t stand that guy


5 posted on 06/24/2010 6:38:20 AM PDT by faucetman (Just the facts ma'am, just the facts)
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To: randita

Those who try to put lipstick on the Leftist pig are always described as “smart” and “scholarly”. Why, you wouldn’t want to listen to those ignorant hayseeds on the Right would you?


6 posted on 06/24/2010 6:45:13 AM PDT by centurion316
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To: randita

I think Cook might try explaining away the 20+ enthusiasm gap and the 6 to 10 point generic gap, but hey that’s just me.


7 posted on 06/24/2010 6:46:19 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: randita
One key word from the Sabato article: "arguably"....because I find what he is indicating as being just that as it relates to the Dems and this coming November. Personally....Dems had better be praying that an expected slaughter does not become a literal massacre.
8 posted on 06/24/2010 6:46:45 AM PDT by cranked
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To: randita
Democrats need to learn one lesson in life, "To thine own self, be true"

They teach their children that they can do "anything they want to do (in life)"...but they never teach them to prepare themselves for what they want to do. Wanting something isn't earner or deserving something...it's only desire.

The dems are trying to comfort themselves and each other for the steep, uphill, battle they will be facing in November. They WANT to win, but with their behavior and wanton disregard for the wishes of the American people in the last 3 years, they have neither earned it, nor deserve it.

I'm surprised they don't all have on big, foam-rubber fingers and shouting "We're number one, we're number one" Telling themselves at this point they are going to have a good outcome in November will do about as much good as those foam-fingers do in winning a sports contest...good for show, but not much go.

The dems have hitched themselves to the obama wagon, and the wheels are coming off...I'm not sure they can drag it across the finish line.
9 posted on 06/24/2010 6:49:01 AM PDT by FrankR (Standing against tyranny must start somewhere, or the future belongs to the tyrants.)
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To: vbmoneyspender
I well remember the pundits talking about a possible Repub gain of NOT MORE THAN 6 at the outside. Most said 3 or 4. The Repubs gained 54 seats.

My worry now is the 16 years of practice since '94 that the Dems have in stealing elections.

vaudine

10 posted on 06/24/2010 7:01:51 AM PDT by vaudine (,,)
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To: randita
Leftist Larry is a dedicated DEMOCRAT party operative and a HUGE FRAUD.

Old Larry was caught working for JIM WEBB and hit theCable circuit smearing the GOP VA senator and INTENTIONALLY FAILED to disclose he was a paid WEBB Employee.

This same fraud went around predicting that G W Bush would not be reelected in 2004 !

Ignore all this fraud DNC propaganda !

11 posted on 06/24/2010 7:04:33 AM PDT by ncalburt (e)
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To: randita

“Arguably, the political landscape is more favorable for the Democrats this time because they are a more cohesive, top-down party than they were in 1994.”

Even though Sabato thinks that a centralized organization can defeat its opposition, the public might not share that view. Now that every Democrat votes in lock step, every Democrat must endure the question “Do you support 0bama’s agenda?” Apparently, the public is not buying 0bama’s agenda as evidenced by 0bama’s sinking poll numbers. Look at the right track wrong track numbers: 2 to 1 see the country going on the wrong track. Look at numbers showing the public’s rejection of ever expanding government.
Moreover, the lack of transparency has been truly appalling. The public was not able to know details of key legislation such as health care and stimulus until the bills were passed. Corruption abounds in this administration but there is no effective check on power precisely because the Democrats are a top down, unaccountable organization.

Perhaps Sabato is right and the Democrats have a really well organized juggernaut. The only problem is that the juggernaut is not aimed at solving the nation’s problems. It is a juggernaut aimed at putting the boot on the throat of the American people. If the Democrats think they can win by waging war on the American people, let’s see how that turns out.


12 posted on 06/24/2010 7:06:40 AM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est)
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To: faucetman
“Sabato has anything to do with something, I ignore it.”
Excellent point!

Sabato does sometimes have good analysis of situations and how they may play out, but one must take anything about lib/dems with a grain of salt as he does seem to bank on previous creditability to spin ever so subtly for his dem friends.

13 posted on 06/24/2010 7:08:32 AM PDT by dusttoyou (libs are all wee wee'd up and no place to go)
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To: vbmoneyspender

I remember well that the Sunday before liberal Morton Kondracke predicted a House and Senate takeover...that certainly wasn’t a few weeks out, like Novak. But you are right: those predicting GOP victories were few and far between.


14 posted on 06/24/2010 7:10:07 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: randita
Much more noteworthy have been the special elections held over the last year in a trio of “Purple” districts. Republicans were unable to win any of them. Two were in upstate New York, the other Murtha’s seat in southwest Pennsylvania.

This.

Way too many people are ignoring the fact that we simply have not been able to win these critical special elections (except Hawaii which ofcourse we will lose in November). Republicans are not winning in places that would be an indication of massive gains this fall. We couldn't even win Murtha's district(PA-12) which is a terrible omen of how this election cycle may go.

There is just zero evidence this crop of American's will be voting conservative. Yes, many are irritated at Obama, but there is no groundswell to fundamentally move to the right. It just isn't happening...yet.

In the long term, we are losing the demographic battle. We are headed very quickly to a time where many people will feel they are a total stranger in their own country. A time where EVERYONE they know hates the leftists running our nation, but where the majority are now victim groups, hispanics, blacks, etc, who reliably vote for liberals.

15 posted on 06/24/2010 7:11:47 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Longbow1969
We couldn't even win Murtha's district(PA-12) which is a terrible omen of how this election cycle may go.

It was a fantasy to think that PA-12 was ever winnable. It's specifically gerrymandered to guarantee a Democrat victory it is also economically depressed and dependant on pork.

16 posted on 06/24/2010 7:16:41 AM PDT by NeoCaveman ("There is no more money. Period. We are BROKE." - Lurker 5/21/10)
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To: Longbow1969
“In the long term, we are losing the demographic battle”

2010 may be the last gasp of the angry Caucasian. The face of America is much different from 1980 or even 1994.

17 posted on 06/24/2010 7:35:37 AM PDT by buckalfa (Confused and Bewildered)
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To: randita

Larry Sabato is delusional.


18 posted on 06/24/2010 7:39:16 AM PDT by DarthVader (That which supports Barack Hussein Obama must be sterilized and there are NO exceptions!)
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To: Longbow1969
"We couldn't even win Murtha's district(PA-12) which is a terrible omen of how this election cycle may go."

I don't know why anyone thinks it should be a slam dunk for a Repub to win in a district where registered Rats outnumber Repubs by 2 to 1.

19 posted on 06/24/2010 7:39:31 AM PDT by uncommonsense (Conservatives believe what they see; Liberals see what they believe.)
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To: Longbow1969

Larry is a Democrat and his spin on each election is the DNC spin .
he actually works for the DNC on the side and fails to report it .
Larry was running around in 2003 and 2004 screamin that Busgh could not get reelected while he was quietly working for the DNC.
He is still secretly working for the DNC and that is the reason why Hannnity dropped him .
AS for the purple district. the GOP votes were split in the Hoffman case and in the other NY district , the DNC was caught promoting that non resident summer home owners could cast a vote in that Sept special election and as the
PA case the DNC had as 2 to 1 votong advantage plus the Dem had the close Specter primary while the GOP primary was
dull.
But Larry always ignore the facts in order to peddle the
DNC talking points .
Just like Larry’s prediction that Jeb Bush and GW Bush would lose in 2002 and 2004.
larry is a worthless leftist.


20 posted on 06/24/2010 7:50:50 AM PDT by ncalburt (e)
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To: Longbow1969
Larry is a Democrat and his spin on each election is the DNC spin .
he actually works for the DNC on the side and fails to report it .
Larry was running around in 2003 and 2004 scream in that Bush could not get reelected while he was quietly working for the DNC.
He is still secretly working for the DNC and that is the reason why Fox dropped him .
AS for the purple district. the GOP votes were split in the Hoffman case and in the other NY district , the DNC was caught promoting that non resident summer home owners could cast a vote in that Sept special election and as the
PA case the DNC had as 2 to 1 voting advantage plus the Dem had the close Specter primary while the GOP primary was
dull.
But Larry always ignore the facts in order to peddle the
DNC talking points .
Just like Larry's prediction that Jeb Bush and GW Bush would lose in 2002 and 2004.
larry is a worthless leftist.
21 posted on 06/24/2010 7:51:35 AM PDT by ncalburt (e)
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To: randita
Sabato is looking at only one, very skewed, facet of the situation and it is a facet that the average American voter is not seeing. Taking into account all of the political missteps of the Dems over the past two years, the terrain is actually less favorable for them now.
22 posted on 06/24/2010 8:23:35 AM PDT by 84rules ( Ooh-Rah! Semper Fi!)
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To: randita

In 1994 the Generic Polling as per polling report.com on the last day before the vote actually had the Democrats up by 3 points. Latest Rasmussen has then down by 10.

Comparing this election coming to anything in the past is ludicrous beyond belief since the situation we are facing today is not nearly comparable anything in the past, nor has the anger been so evident as it is today.


23 posted on 06/24/2010 9:16:11 AM PDT by 101voodoo
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To: vaudine
"My worry now is the 16 years of practice since '94 that the Dems have in stealing elections."

16 years of democratic population growth. Welfare toddlers in 1994 are now eligible to vote.

24 posted on 06/24/2010 9:25:57 AM PDT by The Good Doctor (Democracy is the only system where you can vote for a tax that you can avoid the obligation to pay.)
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To: The Good Doctor

True and there are a lot more illegals on the rolls also.
However almost none of the Dem candidates inspire much energy from the electorate. That subtracts a lot of votes.

I’m cautiously optimistic.
If the Republicans use the hammer of 10% unemployment effectively, they can win a lot of seats. Carville’s economy comments are still pertinent.


25 posted on 06/24/2010 9:30:17 AM PDT by nascarnation
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To: randita

Comparisons like this are just as stupid as when they do it in sports, e.g. “Houston teams are 8-12 in playoff games at night over the past 30 years, so they’ll probably lose tonight”.

So what? That was then, this is now.


26 posted on 06/24/2010 9:50:13 AM PDT by j-damn
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To: NeoCaveman; Longbow1969

It’s some consolation to consider that PA-12 as it exists now may be a goner in 2012. PA is going to lose one congressional seat as a result of the census numbers and it’s widely speculated that PA-12 is the one that’s going bye-bye.


27 posted on 06/24/2010 9:52:39 AM PDT by randita (Visit keyhouseraces.com for a list of vulnerable DEM and must hold GOP House seats.)
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To: randita
If the author had considered the possibility that 2000 and 2004 were indicative of a district's lean and that 2008 was an anomaly, his analysis would show larger Republican projections for this year.

And, even if you accept the author's premise and employ his calculations based on the 1994 turnover rate in blue, purple and red districts, you end up with GOP gains of 45 seats.

That's not quite as many as in 1994 (56), but still enough to take control of the House.

And, as you point out, that's likely to be the floor -- rather than a ceiling.

28 posted on 06/24/2010 10:12:15 AM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA: Ignorance on Parade)
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To: okie01

There seems to be agreement among major pollsters that the GOP has a lock on gaining 25-30 seats at this point in time. Even Sabato (whom some claim is too liberal) has a projection of +32 for the GOP (and his projections are among the rosiest). There are a couple dozen more seats that are in the “lean D-tossup-leanR” categories. The GOP probably has to pick up about half of those to win the House. In this election cycle, that should be doable.

The Senate, however, is a much steeper climb. May not happen this year, but the GOP will be well positioned for 2012, esp. with Dear Reader’s favorability sinking like lead.


29 posted on 06/24/2010 10:32:33 AM PDT by randita (Visit keyhouseraces.com for a list of vulnerable DEM and must hold GOP House seats.)
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To: randita
The Senate, however, is a much steeper climb. May not happen this year, but the GOP will be well positioned for 2012...

I believe about the rosiest projection one can make for the GOP Senate is +8. That's assuming they successfully defend NH and MO -- and there are no unpleasant surprises.

In order to gain a majority, they'd have to take two of three in CA, WA and WI.

And, of course, in the back of our minds is the awareness that the GOP is perfectly capable of screwing it all up. Especially, if they actually get elected...

30 posted on 06/24/2010 10:51:32 AM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA: Ignorance on Parade)
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To: vaudine

SO, the real question is, are the folks that good at stealing elections, are they motivated? I’d guess they aren’t. Community Awareness and outreach programs are probably not bursting at the seams for volunteers. The Demorat base right now is queitly peeling off their Obama stickers...


31 posted on 06/24/2010 10:54:45 AM PDT by Professional
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To: randita

Many offshoots of Reaganism with the GOP freshmen back then.

Today, we’re battling a serious RINO infection. Hopefully Conservatives and the Tea Party will fix that.


32 posted on 06/24/2010 10:57:30 AM PDT by Gene Eric (Your Hope has been redistributed. Here's your Change.)
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To: Longbow1969
There is just zero evidence this crop of American's will be voting conservative. Yes, many are irritated at Obama, but there is no groundswell to fundamentally move to the right. It just isn't happening...yet.

So those polls which show the Rep woth a 8-10 point lead in the Generic ballot are meaningless?

33 posted on 06/24/2010 12:20:02 PM PDT by 101voodoo
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To: randita

gut insticnt leads me to believe the Nov races will not go ALL out Republican. Republicans have no leadership, no message nada!


34 posted on 06/24/2010 12:22:59 PM PDT by rrrod
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To: randita; InterceptPoint; Clintonfatigued; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Minus_The_Bear; ...

The Senate picture for the rats is worse than in 1994. They lost only 2 incumbents that year, they lost control because they lost every open seat.

We haven’t beaten more than 2 incumbent democrat Senators in one election since 1980. That will change in 2010.

They will lose the Senate or come close to it. And all but 2 of their losses will be in states that voted for Obama. That’s horrible for them.

The House may surpass the 230 Republicans elected in 1994. The races for Governor look good.

Stu Rothenberg recently wrote a column on how this is a Republican wave election not an “anti-incumbent” election. The democrats are the only incumbents in general election danger.


35 posted on 06/24/2010 1:19:12 PM PDT by Impy (DROP. OUT. MARK. KIRK.)
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