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Poll scandal sends campaign shockwaves
Politico ^ | 7-1-10 | DAVID CATANESE

Posted on 07/01/2010 5:33:25 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic

In the final weeks leading up to the June 8 Democratic Senate runoff in Arkansas, no data proved more pivotal in shaping conventional wisdom than a pair of Research 2000 polls showing challenger Bill Halter holding a lead.

And those surveys—which fueled the narrative that Sen.Blanche Lincoln was a goner—may have been bogus, according to the blog that commissioned them.

The prospect that polling data in a Senate contest of national consequence may have been faked has sent shockwaves across the campaign world, raising disturbing questions not only about the reliability of suddenly ubiquitous public polls, but about a new media environment where polling numbers are accepted without question even as they threaten to influence the outcome of campaigns.

The episode marks the second time in less than a year that a pollster’s results came under serious questioning—the Atlanta-based polling firm Strategic Vision, was also accused of falsifying data, and its failure to disclose information about its methodology led to a rebuke from the American Association for Public Opinion Research for violating its ethics rules.

The troubling developments involving Research 2000—which began when Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas alleged that the pollster, Research 2000, “fabricated or manipulated” at least a portion of its data over the last year—served to highlight the ever-increasing role that publicly released polls are playing in the life cycle of campaigns, as well as their drawbacks in an era of ever-shortening news cycles and an atomized, hyper-competitive political press.

“It influences races, it drives decisions, the number of volunteers, the number of donors, how much they give,” said longtime GOP strategist Charlie Black. “Part of the problem is, you don’t know about them, many of them do not have a track record you can judge by.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39265.html#ixzz0sQvBuxFr

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Arkansas
KEYWORDS: 2010electionbias; bogus; cookedthebooks; cultureofcorruption; dailykos; democratscandals; lincoln; polls; research2000

1 posted on 07/01/2010 5:33:30 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Oh, NOW it’s a big surprise that Lefty groups lie and manipulate to try to achieve their ends.


2 posted on 07/01/2010 5:34:54 AM PDT by fightinJAG (Obama: "I will gladly pay you on Tuesday for a hamburger today.")
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To: afraidfortherepublic

ALL POLLING IS BOGUS

Polling is done by area code, zip code too.

By manipulating who and where you are polling you are guaranteed certain results.

If all else fails you can always use dem date double the repub data. So called ‘weighting’.

Every single polling company is ‘cheating’.


3 posted on 07/01/2010 5:38:24 AM PDT by Carley (For those who fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic
Where/why surprise?

Sure wish someone on the looney left would step up and claim Breitbart's offer of $100,000.

Now, that might crack the door and put some sunlight on the subject. Crooked left.

4 posted on 07/01/2010 5:41:22 AM PDT by pointsal
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To: afraidfortherepublic

...took a poll once during Bubba’s impeachment hearings......
When I was told it was a poll, I asked how long it would take, and the young lady said between 5-7 minutes, I agreed..
She started off with “do you think President Clinton’s impeachment hearings are hurting the country?” I replied “no”
She then thanked me and hung up....the poll lasted 50 secs....


5 posted on 07/01/2010 5:45:02 AM PDT by Doogle (USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated)
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To: afraidfortherepublic
data proved ... pivotal in shaping conventional wisdom ...

... surveys--which fueled the narrative ...

... environment where polling numbers are accepted without question even as they threaten to influence the outcome of campaigns

None of that is going to change. Polls are used to FORM public opinion, and they will ALWAYS be used for that, because the tool is effective. Lying WORKS.
6 posted on 07/01/2010 5:45:47 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: Cboldt
I once got a telephone poll wherein I was asked my party affiliation. When I said I was a voting Republican, the "survey" ended...

They did NOT WANT my opinion messing up their "findings".

7 posted on 07/01/2010 5:51:00 AM PDT by Huebolt (Government bureaucracies: DE-UNIONIZE, DOWNSIZE, DECENTRALIZE)
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To: Carley

Recent polling shows that most people polled like the feeling!


8 posted on 07/01/2010 6:05:43 AM PDT by cartoonistx
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To: Huebolt

They were probably polling for a democrat primary.


9 posted on 07/01/2010 6:06:04 AM PDT by pie_eater
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To: Carley

I have done polling for campaigns I’ve been involved in, and anyone who thinks that the results of a poll are “exact” are loony.
1) You can influence the results by choosing how the questions are worded
2) You can influence the results by choosing the order of the questions
3) You can influence the results by the time of day and day of week that you call
4) The polling firm estimates what/who will turn out and vote, and then tries to find enough people to answer the poll to predict how the groups will vote, and then multiplies that by the predicted turnout proportions
5) If someone isn’t home or has caller ID or uses a cell phone, they’re not counted and the survey moves on to the next number

Even if you have a huge sample size, it all comes down to how well you predict the turnout and how you handle the questions. Rasmussen’s methodology is some of the best out there.

Also, a poll costs a fortune. A basic poll can run from $5,000 to $10,000 and up, so there is a HUGE incentive to cut corners. The free market will root them out eventually, but cheaters can do some damage for a cycle or two.


10 posted on 07/01/2010 6:12:18 AM PDT by pie_eater
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To: afraidfortherepublic

That should have been an apology from POLITICO instead of reporting about something like they weren’t involved up to their necks in using the data to enhance the hits on their website.


11 posted on 07/01/2010 6:18:46 AM PDT by ThePatriotsFlag (http://www.thepatriotsflag.com - The Patriot's Flag)
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To: pie_eater

Been there know exactly how they manipulate.

Zogby nearly got away with his pretense but was caught early on.

They all use special sauce.


12 posted on 07/01/2010 6:26:37 AM PDT by Carley (For those who fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

78.4% of all statistical analyses posted on the Internet were pulled out of thin air.


13 posted on 07/01/2010 6:39:02 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation Continues)
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To: Bubba_Leroy

If you do the actual calculations with recent data, the figure is 78.3%


14 posted on 07/01/2010 6:42:39 AM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 The winds of war are freshening)
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To: afraidfortherepublic
I do believe that polls should by law be "own use only". If you pay for the poll, you can read it. But not publish the results. There is so much possibility for fraud and the entire science of it, they should be used by the payer.

OWN USE. Like prescription drugs. OWN USE. That's my story and I'm sticken to it.

15 posted on 07/01/2010 6:44:59 AM PDT by Pit1 (Not illegal immigrants. They are CRIMINAL BORDER CROSSERS.)
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To: Carley

>>> ALL POLLING IS BOGUS

And I suppose some might reply all generalizations are bogus.

That Kos polling was dishonest should surprise nobody. Kos is openly biased in its operations. That doesn’t invalidate the industry.

Polling companies have a track record going back decades. For the most part they seem to deliver valid results. In recent years Rasmussen particularly has a history the actual voting confirms as accurate.


16 posted on 07/01/2010 7:10:32 AM PDT by tlb
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To: afraidfortherepublic
The prospect that polling data in a Senate contest of national consequence may have been faked has sent shockwaves across the campaign world,

Wow, here all these years I thought that was the plan, run fake polls so the public will accept the results of rigged elections.

17 posted on 07/01/2010 7:14:24 AM PDT by itsahoot
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To: cartoonistx
Recent polling shows that most people polled like the feeling!

My name is Al Gore, and I endorse that statement.


18 posted on 07/01/2010 7:29:24 AM PDT by GalaxieFiveHundred
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To: cartoonistx

Hope you’re not a poll smoker...


19 posted on 07/01/2010 7:48:41 AM PDT by Yorktownpatriot
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To: afraidfortherepublic; All
From the article:

"The prospect that polling data in a Senate contest of national consequence may have been faked has sent shockwaves across the campaign world, raising disturbing questions not only about the reliability of suddenly ubiquitous public polls, but about a new media environment where polling numbers are accepted without question even as they threaten to influence the outcome of campaigns."

Photobucket

20 posted on 07/01/2010 7:49:00 AM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: Pit1

By law? Have you ever heard of the First Amendment?

Using your logic, I couldn’t even let anyone else know how you answered my question.


21 posted on 07/01/2010 8:38:13 AM PDT by Balding_Eagle (Women are natural socialists, since the 19th passed the US has been drifting Liberal)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Son look around. Would I be surprised?


22 posted on 07/01/2010 9:59:15 AM PDT by Tzimisce (No thanks. We have enough government already. - The Tick)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Geez, all this time, I thought lefties, Dems, and libtards did not lie or care about polls......=.=


23 posted on 07/01/2010 10:29:27 AM PDT by cranked
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