Skip to comments.Poll scandal sends campaign shockwaves
Posted on 07/01/2010 5:33:25 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
In the final weeks leading up to the June 8 Democratic Senate runoff in Arkansas, no data proved more pivotal in shaping conventional wisdom than a pair of Research 2000 polls showing challenger Bill Halter holding a lead.
And those surveyswhich fueled the narrative that Sen.Blanche Lincoln was a gonermay have been bogus, according to the blog that commissioned them.
The prospect that polling data in a Senate contest of national consequence may have been faked has sent shockwaves across the campaign world, raising disturbing questions not only about the reliability of suddenly ubiquitous public polls, but about a new media environment where polling numbers are accepted without question even as they threaten to influence the outcome of campaigns.
The episode marks the second time in less than a year that a pollsters results came under serious questioningthe Atlanta-based polling firm Strategic Vision, was also accused of falsifying data, and its failure to disclose information about its methodology led to a rebuke from the American Association for Public Opinion Research for violating its ethics rules.
The troubling developments involving Research 2000which began when Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas alleged that the pollster, Research 2000, fabricated or manipulated at least a portion of its data over the last yearserved to highlight the ever-increasing role that publicly released polls are playing in the life cycle of campaigns, as well as their drawbacks in an era of ever-shortening news cycles and an atomized, hyper-competitive political press.
It influences races, it drives decisions, the number of volunteers, the number of donors, how much they give, said longtime GOP strategist Charlie Black. Part of the problem is, you dont know about them, many of them do not have a track record you can judge by.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39265.html#ixzz0sQvBuxFr
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
Oh, NOW it’s a big surprise that Lefty groups lie and manipulate to try to achieve their ends.
ALL POLLING IS BOGUS
Polling is done by area code, zip code too.
By manipulating who and where you are polling you are guaranteed certain results.
If all else fails you can always use dem date double the repub data. So called ‘weighting’.
Every single polling company is ‘cheating’.
Sure wish someone on the looney left would step up and claim Breitbart's offer of $100,000.
Now, that might crack the door and put some sunlight on the subject. Crooked left.
...took a poll once during Bubba’s impeachment hearings......
When I was told it was a poll, I asked how long it would take, and the young lady said between 5-7 minutes, I agreed..
She started off with “do you think President Clinton’s impeachment hearings are hurting the country?” I replied “no”
She then thanked me and hung up....the poll lasted 50 secs....
data proved ... pivotal in shaping conventional wisdom ...None of that is going to change. Polls are used to FORM public opinion, and they will ALWAYS be used for that, because the tool is effective. Lying WORKS.
... surveys--which fueled the narrative ...
... environment where polling numbers are accepted without question even as they threaten to influence the outcome of campaigns
They did NOT WANT my opinion messing up their "findings".
Recent polling shows that most people polled like the feeling!
They were probably polling for a democrat primary.
I have done polling for campaigns I’ve been involved in, and anyone who thinks that the results of a poll are “exact” are loony.
1) You can influence the results by choosing how the questions are worded
2) You can influence the results by choosing the order of the questions
3) You can influence the results by the time of day and day of week that you call
4) The polling firm estimates what/who will turn out and vote, and then tries to find enough people to answer the poll to predict how the groups will vote, and then multiplies that by the predicted turnout proportions
5) If someone isn’t home or has caller ID or uses a cell phone, they’re not counted and the survey moves on to the next number
Even if you have a huge sample size, it all comes down to how well you predict the turnout and how you handle the questions. Rasmussen’s methodology is some of the best out there.
Also, a poll costs a fortune. A basic poll can run from $5,000 to $10,000 and up, so there is a HUGE incentive to cut corners. The free market will root them out eventually, but cheaters can do some damage for a cycle or two.
That should have been an apology from POLITICO instead of reporting about something like they weren’t involved up to their necks in using the data to enhance the hits on their website.
Been there know exactly how they manipulate.
Zogby nearly got away with his pretense but was caught early on.
They all use special sauce.
78.4% of all statistical analyses posted on the Internet were pulled out of thin air.
If you do the actual calculations with recent data, the figure is 78.3%
OWN USE. Like prescription drugs. OWN USE. That's my story and I'm sticken to it.
>>> ALL POLLING IS BOGUS
And I suppose some might reply all generalizations are bogus.
That Kos polling was dishonest should surprise nobody. Kos is openly biased in its operations. That doesn’t invalidate the industry.
Polling companies have a track record going back decades. For the most part they seem to deliver valid results. In recent years Rasmussen particularly has a history the actual voting confirms as accurate.
Wow, here all these years I thought that was the plan, run fake polls so the public will accept the results of rigged elections.
My name is Al Gore, and I endorse that statement.
Hope you’re not a poll smoker...
"The prospect that polling data in a Senate contest of national consequence may have been faked has sent shockwaves across the campaign world, raising disturbing questions not only about the reliability of suddenly ubiquitous public polls, but about a new media environment where polling numbers are accepted without question even as they threaten to influence the outcome of campaigns."
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