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Rothenberg: With 4 Months To Go, House Could Turn, Senate Probably Not
NPR ^ | July 7, 2010 | Ken Rudin

Posted on 07/07/2010 2:10:36 PM PDT by Drango

There's less than four months to go before the November midterm elections, and by the looks of things now, Republicans have a legitimate shot at capturing control of the House.

That's the sense of Stuart Rothenberg, the widely respected political analyst who publishes the conveniently-titled "Rothenberg Political Report." Stu sat down and talked politics with All Things Considered host Robert Siegel for an interview that will air this evening.

Of the 435 seats in the House, Democrats currently hold 255, Republicans 178, and there are two vacancies — the Republican seat in Indiana where Mark Souder resigned and the Democratic seat in New York where Eric Massa quit. There are no plans to hold a special election to replace Massa — Gov. David Paterson (D) says the state can't afford it, though Republicans are convinced that he doesn't want to give the GOP a shot at picking up the seat in a special, which it probably would. The Indiana seat is likely to stay in Republican hands in a special election.

So, if we're assuming 179 GOP seats going into November, that means they would need a net gain of 39 to take control of the House and make John Boehner speaker. Doable?

Absolutely, says Rothenberg. He sees a whopping 80 seats in play this year, all but a dozen or so held by the Democrats. "There are enough seats on the table that the Republicans could net the 39" needed for control, he said. "Substantial Republican gains," but it's "premature" to say whether they win a majority.

It's not surprising, of course, for the president's party — in this case, the Democrats — to lose seats in a midterm election. "Voters who were enthusiastic for a new president often do not turn out two years later," he said. Rothenberg points out that other than the exceptions of 2002, where the GOP picked up seats "probably because of 9/11," and 1998, where Democrats made gains because of Republicans "overplaying their hands on impeachment," the party that controls the White House loses congressional seats in the midterm elections.

That's not to say that the GOP won't lose a few of their own seats as well. Stu listed Charles Djou in Hawaii, Joseph Cao in Louisiana and the open seats in Delaware (vacated by Senate candidate Mike Castle) and Illinois (by Senate candidate Mark Kirk) as potential or likely Democratic pickups.

But for the most part, the change is going to go in the opposite direction — towards the GOP. Yes, it's only July, but Rothenberg says that "the general direction of the election is clear." Only the "magnitude" — how many seats, which districts — is uncertain, for that will "change up to the last minute."

Another 1994, where the Republicans won control of the House and Senate? "That's premature," he said. "It depends on the economy and the jobs numbers. Right now I don't think we're there yet. There will be damage to the Democratic side, but not like '94."

Change of control in the Senate is less likely, he noted. Of the 36 seats up in November, 18 are held by each party.

Currently the Senate makeup is 56 Democrats, plus two independents who vote to organize with the Dems, plus the vacancy in West Virginia that will most assuredly be held by a Democratic appointee. For the Republicans to gain control, they need to pick up a net of 10 seats: "Difficult," Stu said. He sees a GOP gain of perhaps five to eight seats. "They will need more states to come into play," he said, "before they have any chance of netting 10."

Democrats would love the the May special election in Pennsylvania's 12th District to be the model. In that race, to succeed the late John Murtha (D), Republicans ran a national campaign — anti-Obama, anti-Pelosi, anti-Washington — while Democrats focused on the local economy. And the Democratic candidate, Mark Critz won.

But November is "going to be about Barack Obama and the economy," Rothenberg said. "You don't see numbers like these" — so many more vulnerable Democratic seats than Republican seats — "if it wasn't a national election. There is a definite political wave building here, like we saw in 2006 and 2008. Only this time it's in the Republicans' direction."

Note: Check out this poll of 70 House districts conducted in June for NPR by Democrat Stan Greenberg and Republican Glen Bolger that forecasts significant gains for the GOP.


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2010electionbias; defundpbsnpr; dnctalkingpoints; pravdamedia; rothenberg
It's the economy stupid.
1 posted on 07/07/2010 2:10:42 PM PDT by Drango
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To: Drango

I predict a win of 58 House seats and 8 Senate seats.


2 posted on 07/07/2010 2:14:55 PM PDT by MBB1984
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To: MBB1984

I doubt either will turn. But I do believe we’ll make a huge dent in both.


3 posted on 07/07/2010 2:15:39 PM PDT by Artemis Webb (DeMint 2012)
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To: Drango

Take Carville’s advice.
Wrap that 10% unemployment around their necks and don’t let go until November.


4 posted on 07/07/2010 2:17:23 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: Drango
This is the only Senate class which has a Republican majority already, thus it is the toughest one to pick up enough seats.
5 posted on 07/07/2010 2:17:51 PM PDT by KarlInOhio (Gun control was originally to protect Klansmen from their victims. The basic reason hasn't changed.)
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To: Drango

The Senate already “turned” in the sense that the Rats no longer have a filibuster proof majority.


6 posted on 07/07/2010 2:19:04 PM PDT by a fool in paradise (I wish our president loved the US military as much as he loves Paul McCartney.)
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To: Drango

CA, NV, ND, PA, WI, DE, IL, WA, CO and maybe a few surprises. It’s doable.


7 posted on 07/07/2010 2:20:34 PM PDT by cotton1706
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To: MBB1984

58 gain? Good to hope for but unlikely.

1994 (GOP +52)

1974 (Dem +43)

1966 (GOP +47)

1958 (Dem +49)

1948 (Dem +75)

1946 (GOP +56)


8 posted on 07/07/2010 2:21:54 PM PDT by Drango (A liberal's compassion is limited only by the size of someone else's wallet.)
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To: Drango

Do you think that the progressives are going to quietly let their agenda get slowed or stopped?

Starting in January 2011, you’re going to see savagery and lying and screaming and finger-pointing at 110 decibels.


9 posted on 07/07/2010 2:22:44 PM PDT by lurk
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To: Drango
When I see something from NPR, I take it as a grain of salt.

I suspect that the RATS and their running dogs in the media are trying mightily to keep some enthusiasm in their base.

10 posted on 07/07/2010 2:24:17 PM PDT by Redleg Duke (RAT Hunting Season started the evening of March 21st, 2010!)
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To: Drango

To maximize our victory on 2NOV, we should make Sarah Palin the head of the RNC. She draws big crowds wherever she speaks, and is a good fundraiser. Look at Sharron Angle’s web-page....she has just raised 1.5mil from the internet. Things are lookin’ good!


11 posted on 07/07/2010 2:25:47 PM PDT by abenaki (It CAN happen here.)
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To: Drango

The GOP is going to take back both Houses of Congress. The anger out there across the country is at a fever pitch. Rothenberg is whistlin’ past the graveyard.


12 posted on 07/07/2010 2:26:29 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: Drango

All that really matters is taking one or the other. Since we won’t get a veto proof majority our morst pressing need is to stop the Dems from ramming this nightmare scenario through at will. Even if we got both the Senate and House any worthwhile retreat from the O agenda which the Pubs passed would get vetoed. For now we stop the bleeding, and get as much as possible. In ‘12 we get the Pres and both houses and start taking this monster apart.


13 posted on 07/07/2010 2:26:58 PM PDT by circlecity
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To: Artemis Webb

I agree, the dems will lose the majority in both houses.

Scott Brown will no longer be quite as crucial.


14 posted on 07/07/2010 2:29:11 PM PDT by dforest
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To: Artemis Webb

“I doubt either will turn. But I do believe we’ll make a huge dent in both.”

That’s all that’s needed. I want to see these conservative candidates win in the House. If we win the house with a +58 seat gain, a lot of RINOs will make it into the mix thus causing the vicious cycle to begin again. We need more time.

The Senate is always going to have liberal tendencies & it is tougher to make that more conservative at this time, but making a dent in the House and scaring the hell out of the remaining moderates will neutralize Obama. If the Republicans capture the House or Senate, Obama and his lapdog media has something to blame.

I say wound them in ‘10, then go for the kill in 2012. 2012 could be a banner year for conservatism in the USA if ‘10 works out like you said. If we wind up with a +4 gain in the Senate and +25 gain in the House (and those gains should be “real” conservative gains), Obama is done for. That’s how thin the guy is. His style of politics may play well in Chicago, but it fails miserably in DC.

The last thing I want to see on FR is a suicide watch if we don’t win the House back ... I’d argue winning the House back would make things easier for Obama in ‘12.


15 posted on 07/07/2010 2:30:43 PM PDT by edh (I need a better tagline)
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To: Redleg Duke
I suspect that the RATS and their running dogs in the media are trying mightily to keep some enthusiasm in their base.

Yes they are.

That's what the "kick A**" comments and the declaration of Gay and Lesbian Month are all about.

The enthusiasm factor on the left will determine whether we take the House or not IMO. I notice the White House is having a harder and harder time getting that excitement level to rise over there on DU.

16 posted on 07/07/2010 2:31:18 PM PDT by Siena Dreaming
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To: Drango

He is stubbornly holding on the old political math. He is either so set in his ways he can’t see the change comming, or he is hoping it won’t come.

A Republican won Ted Kennedy’s seat in Mass.

For the first times since...ever, conservatives are marching in the streets.

65% of Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction (not having a hard time, but going in the wrong direction).

Even a blind man can read this writing on the wall. This will be an election like no other.


17 posted on 07/07/2010 2:33:06 PM PDT by Brookhaven (The next step for the Tea Party--The Conservative Hand--is available at Amazon.com)
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To: Drango

Screw NPR. We’re going to take both houses back!


18 posted on 07/07/2010 2:34:01 PM PDT by nagdt ("None of my EX's live in Texas")
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To: Drango

We’re dealing with bolsheviks. How many of those elections will be stolen, like in Minnesota etc.? I think our side is too cocky and sure and still assuming that we are playing the old fashioned politics of fair elections. That’s not the way stalinists play them.


19 posted on 07/07/2010 2:35:32 PM PDT by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: Drango

just imagine if we had a real Republican party!


20 posted on 07/07/2010 2:36:22 PM PDT by rrrod (at home in Medellin Colombia)
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To: Drango

Weren’t the pundits saying, six months ago, that the Senate would turn, but not the house?


21 posted on 07/07/2010 2:39:41 PM PDT by GVnana
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To: Siena Dreaming

All this catering to the moonbat base SHOULD wake up the rest of normal American that we have a leftist loon in the White House and we need a Republican Congress to keep a short leash on him.


22 posted on 07/07/2010 2:41:05 PM PDT by WOSG (OPERATION RESTORE AMERICAN FREEDOM - NOVEMBER, 2010 - DO YOUR PART!)
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To: WOSG
All this catering to the moonbat base SHOULD wake up the rest of normal American

I really they are waking up as evidenced by the news this morning that Zero is at only 38% approval among indies. Things like that NASA story surely are not helping him in the middle.

I think Obama thought he could go way left now and then veer back to the middle just before Nov. I don't think it's going to work. I think he's going to be reaching just to get his base out all the way thru election day.

23 posted on 07/07/2010 2:44:58 PM PDT by Siena Dreaming
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To: fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; Norman Bates; LdSentinal; ExTexasRedhead; justiceseeker93; ..

It looks very promising.


24 posted on 07/07/2010 2:49:52 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Obama's more worried about Israelis building houses than he is about Islamists building atomic bombs)
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To: Drango

NOT doable if the ‘Pubbies don’t start getting out a message beyond “We’re not Democrats!”


25 posted on 07/07/2010 2:55:27 PM PDT by Little Ray (The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!)
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To: Cacique

How many of those elections will be stolen, like in Minnesota etc.? “”

ACORN is still very busy, working on stealing another election.

NObama gave them billions for a reason.

It was a pre-purchase of services.


26 posted on 07/07/2010 2:58:09 PM PDT by ridesthemiles
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To: Redleg Duke

They are trying to raise the bar for a Republican “victory.” Anything less than a turnover in the House and Senate will be trumpted as a “victory” for Obama and an “endorsement” of his policies.


27 posted on 07/07/2010 3:04:35 PM PDT by Little Ray (The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!)
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To: InterceptPoint

fyi bump


28 posted on 07/07/2010 3:50:35 PM PDT by Drango (A liberal's compassion is limited only by the size of someone else's wallet.)
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To: Drango

Best result for Republicans is to take the House, and win about 8 more seats in the Senate. Darrell Issa, as committee chairman, will open Sestak hearings in the House. But the Democrats will continue to get the lion’s share of the blame for the economy, because they will still have the White House and the Senate, and the economy will still stink to high heaven next year.


29 posted on 07/07/2010 3:52:30 PM PDT by Califelephant
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To: nascarnation
Events between now and November may turn the whole world upside down. Stock market, particular, appears to be pointing to something very, very negative that nobody can explicate.

I think it points to a vacuum that will be filled in a yet unknown manner. This does not appear to be far-fetched. We are perceived, correctly, to be economically weak; and our foreign policy is purposefully weak. There are therefore at least two vacua to be filled. We might have a civil war or dictatorship. If so, nobody will be counting seats in either case.

30 posted on 07/07/2010 3:59:28 PM PDT by TopQuark
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To: Drango

My tag line says it every post I make.

BANK ON IT !!


31 posted on 07/07/2010 4:20:27 PM PDT by RachelFaith (2010 is going to be a 100 seat Tsunami - Unless the GOP Senate ruins it all...)
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To: Drango; SunkenCiv; Clintonfatigued; theothercheek; fieldmarshaldj; Just A Nobody; jazusamo; ...
Rothenberg is really a Democrat who bills himself as “non-partisan.” So I'd say that his prediction that the GOP “has a legitimate shot at taking back the House” can be translated into something like “the GOP would win back the House if the election were held today.” I'm sure it hurts him to say that.
32 posted on 07/07/2010 4:23:54 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: indylindy

Which means Franken was..........

designed to make a joke of US legislation. And, legislators.


33 posted on 07/07/2010 5:29:02 PM PDT by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spirito Sancto.)
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To: Califelephant

They only need to gain a couple of Senate seats in order to sustain the filibuster more easily. In some ways it might be good if Reid is reelected and Dems keep control. Make Reid and his ugly disposition the main face of congressional Dems. This will not help them in 2012. Having said that I find him to be awful and I hope he loses his own seat. But if he wins there is some silver lining at least.

At this point it looks as if Repubs take control of the House it will be by a very tiny margin. I hope they don’t have a lot of “moderate” defectors trying to side with the Dems to give them a working majority.


34 posted on 07/07/2010 7:49:19 PM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: Signalman

Too many voters, who believe that their representative or senator is a good guy and that it is the voters in the other states who have a bad representative and senator.

The GOP has to tie each and every Democrat to Obama in their ads and ram it down their throats. We have to play it all out- we have to go all in or else we lose.


35 posted on 07/07/2010 8:48:22 PM PDT by TennTuxedo
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To: justiceseeker93

Thanks for the ping!


36 posted on 07/07/2010 10:45:33 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: nascarnation

I think at this point Karl Rove and James Carville are new BFF. Obama is going to fall flat on his ass and take most of those morons with him.


37 posted on 07/08/2010 1:48:38 AM PDT by nolongerademocrat ("Before you ask G-d for something, first thank G-d for what you already have." B'rachot 30b)
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To: justiceseeker93; Drango; MBB1984; Clintonfatigued; randita; AuH2ORepublican; darkangel82; ...

Rothenberg isn’t a bad analyst. Most of them appear to me to be a little too favorable to the rats. (Their wishful thinking hopefully rather than mine).

I think the House will turn. I wouldn’t be shocked if more seats are netted than in 1994 or 1946.

The Senate is interesting. The GOP is sure to come close but getting over the top will require some good fortune in the tossup races. It’s not uncommon for most of the close races to break to one party. In 2000 and 1986 the rats won most close races.


38 posted on 07/08/2010 2:01:28 AM PDT by Impy (DROP. OUT. MARK. KIRK.)
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To: Drango

The better news, long term, is that the Dems have many more seats to defend in 2012 and 2014, many of whom will be vulnerable first termers.

So if the Tea Party movement can maintain momentum, preventing the GOP from returning to stupidity form, you could have a filibuster-proof GOP majority after the 2014 elections.


39 posted on 07/08/2010 4:47:24 AM PDT by almcbean
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To: circlecity
Since we won’t get a veto proof majority our morst pressing need is to stop the Dems from ramming this nightmare scenario through at will.

We don't need a veto proof majority. All we need to do is win control of the House because all spending bills must originate in the House.

We can than defund every Obama program and all of the wasteful agencies (EPA, DOE, DOEd, Interior, etc) if our Republicans have enouth gumption. That's all the more reason to elect conservatives instead of RINOs.

40 posted on 07/08/2010 6:58:47 AM PDT by Retired COB (Still mad about Campaign Finance Reform)
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To: Impy; ExTexasRedhead; SunkenCiv; Clintonfatigued; Just A Nobody; fieldmarshaldj; InterceptPoint; ...
In 2000 and 1986 the rats won most close [Senate] races.

How about 2006, when Webb beat Allen in VA in some kind of last second "run" in the vote count? Plus, there were a few other close ones that year. When 'Rats win by less than 2%, you can be almost sure that cheating and fraud were decisive!!!

41 posted on 07/08/2010 12:26:43 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: Drango

The lefties are trying every trick in the book. Even the most diehard liberal knows what they are selling is crap.


42 posted on 07/08/2010 12:36:20 PM PDT by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: justiceseeker93
A statistical analysis might be interesting!

ML/NJ

43 posted on 07/08/2010 12:37:50 PM PDT by ml/nj
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To: Drango

The Repubs could easily get 10 Senate seats this November. I’d say the odds are between 50 to 60% and getting at least a 8 Senate seat pickup is about 75%.


44 posted on 07/08/2010 12:42:52 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: justiceseeker93
How bout when Dems lose decisively? Here's how Dems bombed in 2009 w/ WH assistance.

OBAMA WAS DESPERATE FOR INCUMBENT CORZINE TO WIN Ohaha was heavly invested in the NJ gubernatorial race---one of only two statewide 2009 races. Obama put the power of the WH machine behind Corzine. Ohaha campaigned in the state three times, Biden was there twice. Ohaha TV ads ran relentlessly.

The NY Times reported:
(a) every TV ad Corzine put on the air was being screened by Obama's WH team.
(b) Corzine's aides gave the WH daily briefings.
(c) Obama’s pollsters took over for Corzine’s polling team, and,
(d) White House operatives were on the ground for internal strategy sessions,

DEMS WERE MILKING THE ILLEGAL VOTE AT MACH SPEED
(e) White House operatives were orchestrating obscure pep rallies with Latinos (kept secret from voters),
(f) Corzine had a "Peruvian Pac" endorsing him.
(g) Sucking up to illegals bigtime was Sen Robert Menendez, a latino Corzine campaigner.
(h) Corzine promised to give illegals ‘driving credentials’ & in-state tuition.
(i) Corzine sucked up to illegal immigrants and REFUSED to enforce current immigration laws
(j) Corzine formed a Blue Ribbon committee of hypenates using tax dollars to mine votes for Corzine.

OTHER SALIENT POINTS

>> Wealthy incumbent Dem Jon Corzine (ex-G/S head) outspent the Repub winner about 4-1 (spent about $185M to buy office).
>> New Jersey has a huge Democratic registration.
>> Corzine bragged he had 20,000 paid union helpers on the ground election day to get out the vote.
>> There was a third party candidate siphoning off Republican votes.
>> Corzine had the power of incumbency.
>> Corzine had the power of a crooked Democrat Machine cooking the vote.
>> Ohaha hid $17.5 BILLION stimlulus in New Jersey.....for Corzine's reelection campaign.

==========================================

AND THIS The winning Republican Lieutenat Governor candidate, former County Sheriff Kim Guadagno, was lacerated by latinos b/c she had applied for the federal 287(g) program, to question every inmate coming to the County jail about their immigration status, regardless of the offense for which they are incarcerated. Sheriff Guadagno had sought to ensure that "criminals" are not unduly released for fear of further harm to the community.

The 287(g) program would provide the sheriff with personnel and tools to punish individuals being held at the County jail, even if they do not meet the criteria set forth by Corzine's sucking up to illegals.

Illegals lacerated Sheriff Guadagno for political pandering and for scouting incidents of indictable offenses such as driving under the influence by undocumented immigrants.

45 posted on 07/08/2010 1:54:14 PM PDT by Liz
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To: Liz
How about when Dems lose decisively?

Well, they just can't gin up enough fraud to compensate for their huge self-inflicted problems in some races. Christie actually beat Corzine by a wider margin than the official tally, when you factor out all the cheating. So what you are saying is that the fraud and cheating can be overcome, and I'd agree.

46 posted on 07/08/2010 2:15:23 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: Liz
How about when Dems lose decisively?

Well, they just can't gin up enough fraud to compensate for their huge self-inflicted problems in some races. Christie actually beat Corzine by a wider margin than the official tally, when you factor out all the cheating. So what you are saying is that the fraud and cheating can be overcome, and I'd agree.

47 posted on 07/08/2010 2:15:38 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: justiceseeker93

It’s an “art” - thanks for the ping!


48 posted on 07/08/2010 8:32:51 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: justiceseeker93

And 2008.

Any close race is suspect. But any very close race is guaranteed fraud. Alaska and Minnesota in 2008.


49 posted on 07/09/2010 4:09:24 PM PDT by Impy (DROP. OUT. MARK. KIRK.)
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