Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

For Congressional Dems, Time Is Almost Up [independent voters "pretty well lost" to 'rats this fall]
National Journal ^ | 07/07/10 | Amy Walter

Posted on 07/07/2010 7:25:38 PM PDT by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle

For months now, the alarm bells have been sounding for President Obama. First there was the drop in support among independents. Then his precipitous drop in support among white voters. Now comes the predictable news that Wall Street donors, sick of being used as political punching bags, are no longer lavishing campaign funds on Democrats.

But while these developments should be worrisome to the White House, they should be downright terrifying to congressional Democrats. Obama has time to right himself. For congressional Democrats, time has almost run out.

A series of focus groups in five states conducted last month for the conservative nonprofit group Resurgent Republic found that while independent voters have soured on Obama, they haven't abandoned him completely. The same can't be said of their feelings for congressional Democrats.

In analyzing one such group in Orlando, GOP pollster Jan van Lohuizen concluded that it was two issues, health care and BP's oil spill, that ultimately soured these independent voters on Obama. On health care, van Lohuizen blames the process of the debate more than the substance for turning off independents. As for BP, voters are disappointed that they "don't see strong leadership" from the president.

While Obama could still win these voters back in 2012, van Lohuizen says, they are "pretty well lost" to Democrats this fall.

These voters aren't exactly sold on the GOP, either. If Republicans take control of Congress, they'll "have to deliver," said Resurgent director Ed Gillespie. If they don't, voters will be more than willing to throw them out too.

Obama's struggle among white voters has also gotten plenty of ink lately. Still, it'll be felt most acutely and immediately by House Democrats. Only a handful of the 66 most vulnerable Democratic-held seats as rated by the Cook Political Report have significant minority populations. For example, three of the most vulnerable freshman Democrats -- Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.-03), John Boccieri (Ohio-16) and Mark Schauer (Mich.-07) -- sit in districts that range between 87 percent and 93 percent white.

Moreover, the percentage of white voters tends to increase in midterm elections. That's not always a problem for Democrats. In '06, for example, while white voters made up 79 percent of the electorate, Democrats won 47 percent of the white vote. That year, many Democrats won in rural and overwhelmingly white districts. Think Zack Space in Ohio-18, Heath Shuler in N.C.-11, and Christopher Carney in Pa.-10.

This year, however, the white vote is breaking overwhelmingly toward the GOP. The most recent Gallup generic ballot shows white voters giving Democrats just 38 percent of the vote. That's not just an Obama problem, that's a Democratic problem.

Finally, we always knew that it was going to be tough for Obama to convey his Internet fundraising prowess to his Democratic colleagues. After all, first-time political donors who got swept up in Obama-mania are not going to be the slightest bit interested in supporting a random Democratic incumbent they've probably never heard of in the first place. But a poor economy combined with a frustrated donor base and the likelihood of an energized GOP 527 effort spells real danger for House Democrats. Their one saving grace is that the National Republican Congressional Committee has been unable to capitalize on its good fortune. If the NRCC doesn't start raising some more money, and soon, it could leave a whole lot of seats on the table this fall. And we suspect that 527 groups like American Crossroads are going to be focusing their fire almost exclusively on Senate races, especially if they are having trouble hitting their fundraising goals.

With just over four months left until Election Day, there's plenty of time for something big to happen that will change the current trajectory. But the emphasis should be on the word "big." A simple change in tone or an uptick in trend lines ain't gonna do it.

TOPICS: Culture/Society; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: democrats; election2010; karma
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-38 last
To: ExTexasRedhead

AWESOME SONG!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for posting.

Right back at ya!


Every time our country stands in the path of danger
An instinct seems to summon her finest first — those who truly understand her

When freedom shivers in the cold shadow of true peril
Its always the patriots who first hear the call

When loss of liberty is looming, as it is now
The siren sounds first in the hearts of freedoms vanguard

The smoke in the air of our Concord Bridges and Pearl Harbors
Is always smelled first by the farmers who come from their simple homes to find the fire and fight

21 posted on 07/07/2010 8:12:02 PM PDT by TheCause ("that these United Colonies are, and of right ought to be, free and independent States")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: garjog

I have some problems with your post. I want all anti-constitutional critters fired. I want the EPA to have all rules pass congressional muster. I want the NEA completely disbanded, and a congressional oversight committee on all national education agendas. I want power to return to our representatives as it should be. I want all representatives and higher to be impeached if they refuse the Constitution. If liberals cannot understand why they exist they are fools.

22 posted on 07/07/2010 8:15:11 PM PDT by eyedigress ((Old storm chaser from the west)?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: eyedigress

Then we completely agree.

Now if only everyone else did.

23 posted on 07/07/2010 8:37:28 PM PDT by garjog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: garjog

Even the so-called “moderates” are appalled at Obama’s arrogance. His race-baiting is starting to be a sticking point. It would seem to the modest independent that he incites race relations, and that is the agenda. As far as the reps that followed lock-step, Buh-Bye.

24 posted on 07/07/2010 8:54:58 PM PDT by eyedigress ((Old storm chaser from the west)?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle

25 posted on 07/07/2010 8:57:39 PM PDT by Oceander (The Price of Freedom is Eternal Vigilance -- Thos. Jefferson)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: eyedigress
Everyone is catching onto what we knew before the election: this guy is too inexperienced and without ANY executive qualifications to be in charge of ANY organization, let alone the Presidency of the USA.

Did you see this Mark Steyn article?

26 posted on 07/07/2010 9:18:05 PM PDT by garjog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle
GALLUP: Obama Job Approval Rating Down to 38% Among Independents
Gallup | Jeffrey Jones / FR Posted by SeekAndFind

PRINCETON, NJ -- Thirty-eight percent of independents approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, the first time independent approval of Obama has dropped below 40% in a Gallup Daily tracking weekly aggregate. Meanwhile, Obama maintains the support of 81% of Democrats, and his job approval among Republicans remains low, at 12%.

These data are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted the week of June 28-July 4. Over the past year, Obama has lost support among all party groups, though the decline has been steeper among independents than among Republicans or Democrats. Today's 38% approval rating among independents is 18 percentage points lower than the 56% found July 6-12, 2009. During the same period, his support has fallen nine points among Democrats (from 90% to 81%) and eight points among Republicans (from 20% to 12%).

Overall, 46% of Americans approve of the job Obama is doing as president in the June 28-July 4 aggregate, one point above his lowest weekly average. Obama's average weekly job approval rating has not been abov 50% since Feb. 8-14, though it reached the 50% mark as recently as May 3-9. (Excerpt) Read more at ...

27 posted on 07/07/2010 9:24:40 PM PDT by Liz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle

Too bad; so sad. ;o)

28 posted on 07/07/2010 9:25:47 PM PDT by SuziQ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All

29 posted on 07/07/2010 9:26:36 PM PDT by Liz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: garjog

Remember that liberals are never wrong. They have been the best and brightest since childhood and have no structure to create a balance between right and wrong. They reject God’s rules and now live with the confusion master. It is our life to trust our God and his way of bringing truth to light. Keep the faith. :^)

30 posted on 07/07/2010 9:33:28 PM PDT by eyedigress ((Old storm chaser from the west)?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Frantzie

Who crawls you worse Rubio or Crist? Don’t vote = Crist, same result as nobama extra votes from mclame’s Won’t voters.
Its always lesser of two evils to one degree or another. Ain’t no perfect politician. Hope you reconsider Marco.

31 posted on 07/07/2010 9:35:40 PM PDT by dusttoyou (libs are all wee wee'd up and no place to go)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: dusttoyou

I am stuck voting for Rubio but he is a liar claiming he is a Tea Party candidate when he is pro open borders Jeb Bush-bot.

The idiot had it sewn up and he opened his mouth and revealed he is who I expected - Mel Martinez 2.

Charlie Crist sickens me. I wish there was a real Tea Party candidate. I heard Bob Smith (?) is running on the conservative party.

32 posted on 07/07/2010 9:48:35 PM PDT by Frantzie (Democrats = Party of I*lam)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: Oceander

Every one here needs to take a chill pill, I believe the libs and Obamas Minions are going to do something and cheat and cheat and cheat, November is going to get ugly fast... Be weary my friends.. Never trust a communist.

33 posted on 07/07/2010 10:28:19 PM PDT by crazydad
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: garjog
Let the state handle education, agriculture, environmental protection maintaining a military for the common defense & a unified currency.

Letting the "state" handle education is how we got this bone crushingly stupid in the first place, not to mention infested with service unions, and they are increasingly set to run agriculture right out of America with all of the stupid enviro nut laws just like they did heavy industry.

Think it isn't happening now?

The "state" fvcks up everything it touches in civil matters, even something as simple as mailing a letter, and is now a behemoth that exists to ensure its own existence as we get taxed out of prosperity and our kids become the future wage slaves of the world.

34 posted on 07/07/2010 10:29:38 PM PDT by bill1952 (Choice is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: crazydad

“Be weary my friends.. “

I say keep your strength up, and your wits about you!

Be wary my friends! LOLOLOLOLOL

Sorry, I couldn’t help it, and it’s late too! LOLOLOLOL

35 posted on 07/07/2010 10:51:19 PM PDT by Forty-Niner (One aspect of the information age is the acceptance as fact of the uninformed opinion)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: crazydad
"Every one here needs to take a chill pill, I believe the libs and Obamas Minions are going to do something and cheat and cheat and cheat, November is going to get ugly fast... Be weary my friends.. Never trust a communist."

Of course they are, and we're going to do our best to fight back, and fight hard (we'll leave the "fight dirty" part to the liberals as that's about the only thing they're good at, and we wouldn't want to take that away from them, now, would we?). That being said, you can't rally the troops with cold water - remember when Steele did that (he hasn't really stopped, has he)?

36 posted on 07/08/2010 4:32:09 AM PDT by Oceander (The Price of Freedom is Eternal Vigilance -- Thos. Jefferson)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: bill1952

OOps. That is a typo. I meant to say “states” — the individual states handle the stuff other than the military and maybe a few other limited departments.

37 posted on 07/08/2010 9:06:19 AM PDT by garjog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

They really thought by now the economy would be rebounding so their losses would not be so bad.

Because they truly do believe that their economic ideas are the uniformly most wonderful, and they were going to bring prosperity with their high taxes and even higher spending.

As you said, they own it now, and when November comes around, they won't be able, with any sort of straight face, to blame the Republicans, though they'll try mightily to do so.

38 posted on 07/08/2010 8:42:05 PM PDT by SuziQ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-38 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794 is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson