Skip to comments.Poll Shocker: Lally Tied with Yarmuth (KY-3)
Posted on 07/10/2010 9:12:21 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat
GOP congressional candidate Todd Lally released his campaigns first internal poll after winning the May primary. Lally surprised many with his strong win in the primary, but his landslide victory corresponded with the campaigns internal polling performed by Rivercity Polling, a Republican-affiliated consulting group.
Rivercitys latest poll showed support for Lally at 43%, Yarmuth at 44% and Undecided or Other at 13%. The automated poll was conducted from June 20-29, and surveyed 300 likely voters with a margin of error at + 3%.
The Lally campaign welcomed the news, which puts the race in an effective dead heat. This polling confirms the results of a statewide poll conducted in early June by Got Focus, LLC, which showed Lally at 43% and Yarmuth at 49%, but did not have a statistically significant sample size for the 3rd district data.
Yarmuth is shown in both polls to have support below 50%, a typical sign of disaster for any incumbent. This news accompanies the decision by the NRCC last week to place Todd Lally On the Radar in their Young Guns program, a status granted to candidates showing significant progress in both polling and fundraising, as well as other factors.
Given the budget disaster awaiting Congress this fall, the poor economy and Democrat calls for tax increases, the trend of support shifting from Yarmuth to Lally will likely continue over the next 4 months.
(Excerpt) Read more at lallyforcongress.com ...
Excellent news from Louisville!
That other poll cited showing 49-43 is probably more accurate, as internal polls tend to understate the support of the opponent - still, at this stage with Lally having low name recognition vs. a two term incumbent, that is still a very good sign...but Lally will need fundraising success as Yarmuth will certainly start running ads heavily by August.
LOL. remember 18 months ago TV saying “end of republicans, end of conservatives”
I’m shocked and excited by this. It should send a major boost for this conservative. We need this seat!
Mandy Connell on 840 WHAS has pretty much raked Yarmuth over the coals on all the issues. Too bad the folks who voted Yarmuth in don’t listen to her show.
Four years ago when he first ran against Anne Northup, Yarmuth stood there and said, "We're both for the bridge."
Well, where is it? 827 billion dollars of stimulus money for "shovel ready" projects later, and here's one that hasn't seen a single shovel of dirt turned for the last 3 1/2 years...and won't ever see one as long as Yarmuth is the representative for KY-3.
The approach to the new bridge will be literally 200 yards from Yarmuth's house. I guess all his neighbors would stop inviting him to cocktail parties if he ever let it be built.
Meanwhile the rest of us in Jefferson County can just rot, or at least wait in long lines to cross the river.
And you folks in Southern IN get to wait with us, too.
GOP congressional candidate Todd Lally... surprised many with his strong win in the primary, but his landslide victory corresponded with the campaign's internal polling performed by Rivercity Polling, a Republican-affiliated consulting group... latest poll showed support for Lally at 43%, Yarmuth at 44% and Undecided or Other at 13%. The automated poll was conducted from June 20-29, and surveyed 300 likely voters with a margin of error at + 3%... confirms the results of a statewide poll conducted in early June by Got Focus, LLC, which showed Lally at 43% and Yarmuth at 49%, but did not have a statistically significant sample size for the 3rd district data. Yarmuth is shown in both polls to have support below 50%, a typical sign of disaster for any incumbent.
you can’t have a poll of 300 and have a margin of error of only 3% that is statistically wrong.
How many of the GOP KY congressmen have essentially free rides to reelection. I’d think that those of them that do would certainly be able to help raise some money in order to rid congress of Mr. Yarmouth.
It all depends upon the size of the population that you are sampling. Remember that this is not a national poll, but rather a poll of only one congressional district. (National polls usually require a sampling of about 1,000 to get a about a 3% margin of error, IIRC.)
Thanks for the ping.
Yarmuth reminds me a little of Gresham Barrett. May he suffer the same fate.
After 18 months of this socialist pacifist Admin. dissing the South : its guns,religion, and industry, and with the Gulf oil spill disaster perped by the Obamabot’s ineptness and inefficiency in dealing with a real crisis, it is surprising that anyone down South who is a business person, a vet, a fisherman, a boater, would ever vote for any Dem ever again.
Wasn’t it the Kos Kids who claimed that Yarmuth’s district was their firewall, because it was a district the GOP “had to win” to take over the House (which is not true) and because Yarmuth was safw (not true either)?
This district leans a bit Democrat (it held President Bush to around 48% in 2000 and 2004), since it’s like 20% black and Louisville has both affluent white liberals and working-class white Democrats. But if turnout is light among blacks, and working-class whites continue to turn against the Democrats, Yarmuth is going down.
Yarmuth only won last time because he said he would make marijuana legal and push the fairness doctrine(gays). He did neither. The black voters are upset with him because he didn’t get the money for them like Northup did. Lally should win, as I don’t know anyone voting for Yarmuth. We will be voting Lally. He is the son of my husband’s former co-worker. Raised in a good family.
Yeah it was repeatably stated by rat types for years that “if we win that seat we are winning the house”.
Sweet sassy molassy.
KY has a chance at finally getting an all GOP delegation if Paul wins and Yarmuth and legacy rat Chandler III can be eliminated.
Almost had it in 1998 with Jim Bunning picking up the Senate seat and Ernie Fletcher winning Scotty Baesler’s seat but “conservative” rat Ken Lucas (actually more conservative than a few RINOs he served with) had to go and steal Bunning’s open seat.
It was just like 1994 in Maine with the House seats of the 2 Senate candidates each switched hands. Baesler tried to get the House seat back in 2000 in what was supposed to be a marque race and got CRUSHED by 18 points with some Reform party guy getting 12% (DJ you know anything about that?).
That pus Chandler ultimately reclaimed it for the rats after Fletcher became Governor, right before we got the other seat back after Lucas quit in favor of Nick Clooney. Some deranged freeper from the district insisted to me that Clooney would not only win but win easily because old people liked his sister and remembered when he used be on tv in the area and they wouldn’t mind at all that every Hollywood liberal gave him a maximum donation.
Lucas ran again in 2006 and I was thrilled that his district rejected his pro-Pelosi ass. But Northrup went down to make it 4-2 GOP.
Impy, you do remember the big difference between the 2002 race in whivh Ken Lucas beat Geoff Davis and the 2006 rematch in which Davis won, right? A clue: it had something to do with Davis’s upper lip.
I didn't expect Baesler to get his seat back, but his 35% showing was embarrassing (and effectively a career-ender). Gatewood Galbraith is a fairly well-known KY perennial candidate, and he got a good chunk of the liberal and drug-legalization protest vote (actually, if you add in Baesler & Galbraith's totals, they got 47%, about what I'd have expected Baesler to receive). After all that happened, I rather wish Dr. Fletcher had stayed put in his House seat, he'd have never had the same problems going to Frankfort.
Yes. It’s silly when it comes right down to it, but that mustache actually did cost him votes.
A few - and you’re right, they should help, but for some reason this race is not currently on the radar as being competitive - but it should be. Anne Northup ousted an incumbent Democrat in this district in a year where Clinton carried the district handily (although McConnell also carried it handily at the same time), and was able to hold it for a decade. Certainly not a district where a Republican cannot win and in an environment like we have now, is one that should definitely be targeted.
...for those interested. :D
That's an excellent point, although I don't think it should be his main campaign theme. Democrat incompetence and Democrat corruption is on display.
Nick Clooney was a strong candidate and could have won. It took an excellent GOP candidate in Geoff Davis running a good, smart campaign to win and hold the seat the next term.
Think we have a shot at Raul Grijalva this year? ;p
I thought Clooney was doomed. This was based mostly on my youthful hubris but I still think his candidacy was overblown.
For some reason, black and Mexican-American candidates (as well as white candidates from North Dakota) can sport a mustache without suffering any political ramifications.
Oh, this is a good year to be a Republican in a swing district. There is soooo much ammo to shoot at the Demoncrats. Thanks, Obama!