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Joseph Cao Poll Shows Big Lead
Hotline On Call (National Journal) ^ | July 12, 2010 | Reid Wilson

Posted on 07/12/2010 6:49:14 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican

Conventional wisdome suggests Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA) is the most vulnerable GOPer in Congress, seeking re-election in a heavily African-American district in which any scandal-free Dem should easily top half the vote. But conventional wisdom has been wrong before, and a new poll for Cao's campaign hopes to prove it wrong again.

Cao led state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) by a 51%-26% margin, according to a survey conducted May 27-June 2 by LA pollster Verne Kennedy. Cao leads Richmond by a 67%-13% margin among white voters, and by a narrower 39%-36% margin among African American voters.

That African American vote will play a decisive factor in the New Orleans-based district. African Americans make up 61% of the voter registration rolls, but recent turnout statistics show African Americans are seriously underrepresented at the polls.

Kennedy writes in a memo to Cao's campaign that he believes turnout among black voters will top out at 57%. Accordingly, 57% of the sample was African American, while 39% was white. Cao's lead comes even as both candidates were identified by party -- meaning voters said they would vote for Cao even though they knew he was a GOPer.

"Strong evidence exists that a fundamental change has occurred among African-Americans in the New Orleans area, where performance overrides ethnic voting," Kennedy said. "And since Joseph Cao is also a minority candidate who has an outstanding record of personal and political accomplishments, African-Americans identify with him and are willing to give much higher support to a non-African-American than in previous elections."

Cao is well-known throughout his district -- surprisingly so, for a freshman. Fully 54% of district residents rate him favorably, while just 9% say they see him unfavorably. Richmond is much less well-known, clocking in at 23% favorable and 12% unfavorable. Dems believe they will win over a much larger vote share as Richmond's name becomes better known.

The poll also tested Cao against state Sen. Karen Carter Peterson (D), who last week said she wouldn't run and who trailed Cao by a 49%-30% margin. The poll did not test state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), who has qualified to run for the seat but who has much less cash on hand than Richmond and is seen as an underdog in the Dem primary.

Dems say Carter Peterson's decision not to file will give them a leg up in the long run. Running alongside Richmond and LaFonta, little-known businessman Gary Johnson (D) and ex-Congressional aide Eugene Green (D) are unlikely to take a significant percentage of the vote, meaning the winner of the Aug. 28 primary will likely get more than 50% of the vote and avoid a runoff.

Dems also caught a break when several African Americans considering an independent bid against Cao said they would not file, limiting the potential for a split Dem base. Cao got a challenger at the last minute in salesman Norman Billiot (R), though on Monday Billiot withdrew his name, giving Cao a clean shot at the GOP nomination.

Opposition strategists pointed to the very makeup of Cao's district, which gave Pres. Obama 75% of the vote in '08. No other member of Congress holds a district that favored the other party's WH nominee by such a large margin.

"Rep. Cao has done anything he needed to in order to stay in good graces with his national Republican benefactors and try to block President Obama's agenda in a district where voters strongly support it," said DCCC spokesman Jesse Ferguson. "The moment Cao voted against historic health insurance reform was the moment we knew our Democratic nominee will be successful in November."

The poll was conducted by Kennedy's firm, Market Research Insight. It surveyed 400 voters for a margin of error of +/- 5%.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Louisiana
KEYWORDS: 2010midterms; 2010polls; cao; josephcao; keyhouseraces; khr; la02; la2010; louisiana
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If this poll is anywhere close to accurate, the GOP will pick up over 100 House seats.

Alas, even a 100-seat pickup would be likelier than fluke 2008 winner Republican Congressman Joseph Cao leading a black state representative by 39%-36% among black voters in his hyper-Democrat black-majority New Orleans district.

1 posted on 07/12/2010 6:49:16 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Since when does ‘scandal free’ matter there ?


2 posted on 07/12/2010 6:51:50 PM PDT by EDINVA
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To: fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; Impy; BillyBoy; GOPsterinMA; Clemenza; Coop; Norman Bates; ...

My comment #1 says it all: this poll sounds far too good to be true. But if there’s even a kernel of truth to it, November will be even better than we all have been hoping for.


3 posted on 07/12/2010 6:52:59 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Having lived down there 4 months late last year, I’m no longer sure that is a Black majority district, or at least that the margin is that high. Sure, they are still on the rolls. However, I don’t believe they are there any longer.


4 posted on 07/12/2010 6:53:09 PM PDT by Ingtar (If he could have taxed it, Obama's hole would have been plugged by now.)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Having lived down there 4 months late last year, I’m no longer sure that is a Black majority district, or at least that the margin is that high. Sure, they are still on the rolls. However, I don’t believe they are there any longer.


5 posted on 07/12/2010 6:53:15 PM PDT by Ingtar (If he could have taxed it, Obama's hole would have been plugged by now.)
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To: AuH2ORepublican
I suppose the substantial lead is due to the oil spill.

Even many blacks in Louisiana are likely getting sick of the thuggishness of the WH.

6 posted on 07/12/2010 6:54:00 PM PDT by Siena Dreaming
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To: AuH2ORepublican

look up his voting record- health care bill and who knows what else.


7 posted on 07/12/2010 6:55:06 PM PDT by 4buttons
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To: AuH2ORepublican

He votes like your average Black Congressional Caucus member. Why change.


8 posted on 07/12/2010 6:55:50 PM PDT by pissant (THE Conservative party: www.falconparty.com)
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To: 4buttons

He voted for Obamacare the first time (casting his vote only after the Democrats had a majority), but then voted against Obamacare the second time around (claiming that he couldn’t support the bill without the anti-abortion language). I doubt that the moonbats will be supporting Cao.


9 posted on 07/12/2010 6:58:27 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: pissant
He votes like your average Black Congressional Caucus member. Why change.

As long as he keeps voting for a GOP speaker, he can do what he wants.

10 posted on 07/12/2010 6:59:10 PM PDT by NeoCaveman ("There is no more money. Period. We are BROKE." - Lurker 5/21/10)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

I’m sorry, but I cannot distinguish this RINO’s voting record from that of any other CommieCrate. Why should I care what happens to him?
He is dead to me, as far as being Republican in any meaningful sense of the concept.


11 posted on 07/12/2010 6:59:12 PM PDT by J Edgar
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To: pissant

You got that right. He has already proved what a traitor he is to America by voting with the libs.


12 posted on 07/12/2010 6:59:47 PM PDT by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: EDINVA

“Since when does ‘scandal free’ matter there ?”

Actually, it does seem to matter to enough of these black voters - who helped vote out William Jefferson, Democrat-Louisiana. There is NO WAY that Cao would have ever had a chance had it not been for these black voters.

They are a reachable bunch, in my opinion. They know full-well how badly they’ve been SCREWED by the DEMOCRATS. It will be much harder (in fact, impossible) to reach gays and young married couples who could care less about ANYTHING beyond their next summer holiday.


13 posted on 07/12/2010 7:01:13 PM PDT by BobL (The whole point of being human is knowing when the party's over.)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Don’t try to put the boodgie woodgie on us. Getting rid of RINOS is part of what we are doing.


14 posted on 07/12/2010 7:01:18 PM PDT by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: freekitty

“Don’t try to put the boodgie woodgie on us. Getting rid of RINOS is part of what we are doing.”

LOL. GROW UP!!! If we can hold a district carved out to be represented by a BLACK DEMOCRAT with a non-black pro-life person, then what the HELL is wrong with that.

I’d love a Conservative Republican DICTATORSHIP as much as you, but getting Cao to represent a black district in New Orleans is pretty damn good to me.


15 posted on 07/12/2010 7:04:59 PM PDT by BobL (The whole point of being human is knowing when the party's over.)
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To: J Edgar
Well Cao is a vote against Pelosi and that's enough for me.
16 posted on 07/12/2010 7:05:38 PM PDT by Reily
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Incumbency does have its advantages, fortunately AND unfortunately, depending upon each individual circumstance.


17 posted on 07/12/2010 7:06:55 PM PDT by johnthebaptistmoore (If leftist legislation that's already in place really can't be ended by non-leftists, then what?)
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To: AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; Impy; Galactic Overlord-In-Chief; GOPsterinMA; ExTexasRedhead; ...
If this is true, it's awesome news. Cao has been active in the cleanup efforts and other constituent services issues.
18 posted on 07/12/2010 7:20:05 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Obama's more worried about Israelis building houses than he is about Islamists building atomic bombs)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Other than has nearly unforgivable vote on ObamaCare, I can give Cao an occasional pass for trying to survive in a district of Obamabots, much like with Scott Brown. I hope he wins re-election.


19 posted on 07/12/2010 7:30:49 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Washington, we Texans want a divorce!)
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To: AuH2ORepublican
If this turns out to be correct, I'll be the first to admit I was 180 degrees wrong about Cao's re-election chances. Cao squeaked in to a seat that had been held by Democrats since '91 - 1891 - and then only because the other side was in utter chaos (Jefferson). I thought sure he was "one and done."

This could make for a very interesting November...

20 posted on 07/12/2010 7:45:07 PM PDT by DemforBush (Serpentine, Shel! SERPENTINE!)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

I’m sick of these GOP candidates trying to fit in to the mold of Demorats. Let the welfare cheats and scoflaws of New Orleans house districts be represented by their own crooked kind. Then send them to jail every few years.


21 posted on 07/12/2010 7:48:45 PM PDT by anton
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To: AuH2ORepublican
So what? Just another CommieLib, only with an "R" after his name.

Scouts Out! Cavalry Ho!

22 posted on 07/12/2010 7:54:19 PM PDT by wku man (Claire Wolfe's clock is winding down...tick......tick..........tick...............tick..............)
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To: BobL
LOL. GROW UP!!! If we can hold a district carved out to be represented by a BLACK DEMOCRAT with a non-black pro-life person, then what the HELL is wrong with that.

You're wasting your time trying to convince the witch-burning faction of the GOP that a moderate Republican in a liberal district is worth fighting for. All I can say is that the members of this all-or-nothing faction are set in their ways.

23 posted on 07/12/2010 7:55:45 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always)
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To: BobL

Well good for you.


24 posted on 07/12/2010 8:00:48 PM PDT by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: Zhang Fei

Ain’t no moderates. When are you guys going to learn that.


25 posted on 07/12/2010 8:01:34 PM PDT by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Thanks for posting this. I saw it briefly but was planning to go back and read it thoroughly.

I am pretty shocked and sure hope it holds. Incumbency does have its perks. Being on the news every night and telling constituents what you’re doing about the oil spill doesn’t hurt.

But still, Cao has had two years to close the sale, and it looks like the “pens are coming out for the signatures”. He’s done a good job.


26 posted on 07/12/2010 8:20:46 PM PDT by randita (Visit keyhouseraces.com for a list of vulnerable DEM and must hold GOP House seats.)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Anyone who really believes that 70% black district is really going to re-elect Cao should stay off the mushrooms. Cao is gone for sure. His election was a one-time fluke due to cold-cash Jefferson.


27 posted on 07/12/2010 8:23:50 PM PDT by packrat35 (Planned Parenthood... killing more blacks than the Ku Klux Klan could have ever dreamed of.)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Cao was the only “Republikan” who went to Obama’s Super Bowl party..and later called it bi-partisan. Pathetic..


28 posted on 07/12/2010 8:28:26 PM PDT by max americana
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To: Clintonfatigued

To see any poll showing Cao leading is a shocker to me.

Then again, I would point out that some prominent local N.O. pols have had to resign or go to jail as of late, like N.O. Councilman Oliver Thomas and State Senator Derrick Shepherd. Cao by contrast is a complete boy scout. Also, the N.O. city council is now majority white, and even elects white candidates from black majority council districts (Stacy Head is a prime example), so it’s not as if black voters will reflexively vote for the black candidate. Having said that, I’m still floored at the possibility that so many would vote for a Republican for federal office.


29 posted on 07/12/2010 8:44:08 PM PDT by Galactic Overlord-In-Chief (Our Joe Wilson can take the Dems' Joe Wilson any day of the week)
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To: BobL

Blacks were Republican for generations. It wasn’t till the 60’s Civil Rights era that somehow the propaganda was that the D’s were the ones who made it all possible to eat in any restaurant, stay in any hotel,sit anywhere on a bus, or drink from any water fountain. All pure BS, but it’s been bought now for 40-50 years.

Middle class black family should by all rights be Republican. They tend to be more conservative than most whites on social issues, and increasingly on economic issues. It makes no sense for them to stay on the Dem plantation. If I were black it’d make me furious to have the likes of Jesse Jackson/Al Sharpton appointed as my ‘spokesman.’


30 posted on 07/12/2010 9:27:12 PM PDT by EDINVA
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To: Clintonfatigued; fieldmarshaldj; Impy; Galactic Overlord-In-Chief; GOPsterinMA; Coop; Clemenza; ...

You know, this poll is quite a bit old—it was taken between May 27 and June 2. One of the reasons why this poll didn’t seem right to me is that I couldn’t think of a reason why would Cao sit on such a fantabulous result for over a month unless he knew that it was a sham.

But I just realized something that makes me wonder whether there might not have been another reason for Cao abstaining from trumpeting these results back when they were fresh. During the past 6 weeks or so there were several prominent black liberals publicly considering running for the seat as independent candidates. Now, if there was one thing that could place Cao in the driver’s seat for reelection it’s having a second black liberal take votes from the Democrat nominee, so Cao would be wise not to do anything that would discourage one or more black liberals from making an indie run.

I would posit that a poll showing Cao with 51% overall would discourage any black liberal who was thinking of running as an independent, since such a candidate would be hoping of winning with 35% or so, and if Cao was well over 40% it wouldn’t be worth the effort; in addition, it would be even more difficult for a black liberal independent to fundraise if people thought that a united liberal base was the only way of defeating Cao (as opposed to the conventional wisdom that Cao would be lucky to get 30% in a multi-candidate race or 40% in a two-person race). So Cao and his advisers decided not to release the results of the poll and see whether any black liberal candidates would make indie runs and make his path to reelection far easier.

Alas, the filing deadline came and went, and no one filed to run as an independent candidate. So, with no reason to keep the poll under wraps anymore, Cao releases the results. While I still refuse to believe that Cao could be leading a black Democrat state representative by 39% to 36%, I don’t think that this poll smells quite as bad as I originally thought.


31 posted on 07/12/2010 9:30:23 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: EDINVA

Actually it was FDR that bought them off first, they switched instantly.

In 1936, 71% of blacks registered Democrat and they stayed Democrat, reaching up to 77% and 76%, then in 1964 Johnson and his welfare plan jumped them to 94%, since then they have been mostly in the mid to high 80%s.


32 posted on 07/12/2010 9:37:28 PM PDT by ansel12 (Mitt: "I was an independent during the time of Reagan-Bush. I'm not trying to return to Reagan-Bush")
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To: EDINVA
I made a big mistake, those were voting numbers not registration numbers. Registration as Republican was 37% in 1936, and 18% in 1952, and plummeted to 8% (from 22% in 1960) in 1964.
33 posted on 07/12/2010 10:14:52 PM PDT by ansel12 (Mitt: "I was an independent during the time of Reagan-Bush. I'm not trying to return to Reagan-Bush")
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To: J Edgar; fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; Impy; BillyBoy; GOPsterinMA; Clemenza; Coop; ...
>> If this poll is anywhere close to accurate, the GOP will pick up over 100 House seats. Alas, even a 100-seat pickup would be likelier than fluke 2008 winner Republican Congressman Joseph Cao leading a black state representative by 39%-36% among black voters in his hyper-Democrat black-majority New Orleans district. <<

I seriously doubt Cao has a "big lead" in a district this overwhelmingly RAT, but unlike many here I don't assume he's DOA because of the district's demographics either. Nobody thought he could win 2008 either, and 2010 is shaping up to be a FAR better year for the GOP. It's quite possible he could catch lighting in a bottle twice. The odds are he'll lose (that would be what you'd assume if you're a betting man), but he's only GURANTEED to lose if we make it a self-fulfilling prophesy. I'm personally tired of the defeatist attitude from Republicans "writing off" RAT districts. The Dems go all out to win 60% GOP districts and then cling to them for years and have to be dragged kicking and screaming from those seats. We should fight like hell to keep every seat we have.

>> this poll sounds far too good to be true. But if there’s even a kernel of truth to it, November will be even better than we all have been hoping for. <<

Bingo. If this election is anything like 1994, we could see quite a few upsets in districts that have been RAT forever. This "poll", if it even slightly resembles the actual numbers, should give us pause. It would mean a RAT slaughter is on the way.

p> >> >>> He votes like your average Black Congressional Caucus member. Why change. I’m sorry, but I cannot distinguish this RINO’s voting record from that of any other CommieCrate. Why should I care what happens to him? He is dead to me, as far as being Republican in any meaningful sense of the concept. <<

I'm sorry you can't distinguish his record from your average moonbat Black Congressional Caucus member, but I certainly can. He's nowhere near as conservative as me but he'll way to the right of the "typical" Maxine Waters type RAT representing those types of districts. Here's some of his positions over the past year:

Final Passage of Obamacare - NO
Prohibit Federally Funded for Abortion Services -YES
Prohibit the return of the Fairness Doctrine - YES
Substitute Health Care and Insurance Law Amendments - YES
Require Timetable for Withdrawal from Afghanistan - NO
Remove Funding for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter's - NO
Prohibit Federal Assistance to ACORN - YES
Pass Energy and Environmental Law ("Cap and Trade") - NO
Allocate additional $825 billion for Obama's "economic recovery package" - NO

Do you honestly feel that Bill Jefferson would have voted the same way if he was still representing that district? Cao has a lifetime ACU rating of 55%. I would rather have someone who votes with me the majority of the time representing a district with 90% RAT politicians than have someone who votes with me 5% of the time.

>> Other than has nearly unforgivable vote on ObamaCare, I can give Cao an occasional pass for trying to survive in a district of Obamabots, much like with Scott Brown. I hope he wins re-election. <<

I agree. Normally I'd be all for purging a Republican who votes with the RATs half the time, but given the EXTREME lopsided RAT history of that district, Cao is a vast improvement. I believe the last time it had a Republican Congressman was the 1880s? And Cao did switch to the GOP on Obamacare after the "pro-life" Bart Stupak sold us out. Cao was on the right side when we needed Republicans united on the final roll call vote.

>> You're wasting your time trying to convince the witch-burning faction of the GOP that a moderate Republican in a liberal district is worth fighting for. All I can say is that the members of this all-or-nothing faction are set in their ways. <<

I understand the anti-Cao sentiment here, because many of the same arguments used to defend Cao are being used by the GOP establishment to defend socialist RINOs who DON'T deserve it. Kirk apologists make the same claim ("he's a moderate Republican representing a very liberal district, that makes him better than any Democrat"), but in Kirk's case it's not true and the voting record of Kirk and his constituents reflects that.

In Kirk's case, you have a LIBERAL Republican representing a MODERATE district (rather than the other way around). Kirk's district is roughly 50% Republican, but Kirk agrees with the RATs on the majority of issues and switches to their side when his vote needed, because they're the one in power now and he wanted to suck up to the ruling RAT overlords in Washington to gain power and clout. That's not acceptable and Kirk is certainly not "better" than any Illinois Democrat. Indeed, many Democrats politicians in districts with comparable demographics and percentage of Obama voters are not as liberal as him (a prime example being my district). There's no excuse when a "Republican" like Mark Kirk votes in favor of partial birth abortion or cap n' trade.

The same is true of people like Arlen Specter, Mike Castle, etc., etc. Their constituency is middle of the road, not a voter base filled Barney Frank and Cynthia McKinney clones. They jumped ship to the left to gain clout in Washington, not because their constituents were demanding they vote hard-left on key legislation. Those kinds of treasonous RINOs should have been purged long ago.

Cao, on the other hand, does have the misfortune of representing the kind of district falsely attributed to guys like Kirk. Cao is an normally "safe" one-party socialist Democrat district that Obama won by an absolutely HUGE 9-to-1 margin. I wish Cao were more conservative than he is, but every time he votes with us, he is voting to the right of his constiuecy. Hopefully if Cao is re-elected and can establish long enough roots to be an institution in that district, he could risk voting with the GOP more often. As of now, any time he goes against Obama he gives the opposition ammo to bring out the legions of brain-dead Obamabots against him. I can see why Cao just lays low and says he's Obama's pal at public events.

There's an important distinction between a liberal Republican representing a centrist district VS. a centrist Republican representing a liberal district. Unfortunately, that seems to be lost on many people.

34 posted on 07/12/2010 10:49:54 PM PDT by BillyBoy (Impeach Obama? Yes We Can!)
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To: BillyBoy

Yeah, yeah. When the marbles are down, RINOs will stab you in the back. Scott Brown and Olympia Snowe demonstrated that once again today.


35 posted on 07/12/2010 11:07:29 PM PDT by pissant (THE Conservative party: www.falconparty.com)
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To: BillyBoy

Excellent post.


36 posted on 07/12/2010 11:33:04 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: Ingtar

After Katrina, many of those folks were dispersed all over the country. They may be still on the rolls, and for several elections they were allowed to vote absentee. I think that is no longer true.

Miss Mary may be in trouble...


37 posted on 07/13/2010 12:01:48 AM PDT by dixiechick2000 (Remember November...I can see it from my house!)
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To: pissant

And...apparently Susan Collins, too!


38 posted on 07/13/2010 12:04:47 AM PDT by dixiechick2000 (Remember November...I can see it from my house!)
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To: BillyBoy

NICE post! Thank you!

I lived there for a while. After Katrina, the demos drastically changed.

Frankly...every contested ‘Rat seat, and every open seat of any party, is up for grabs right now...with the nod going to the GOP. For me...I’m TEA Party all the way...NO RINOS...but we take what we can get, numbers wise...and hope and pray that they will be shamed into voting right.

You know what else? Obama’s push for amnesty will NOT help his party. ;o)


39 posted on 07/13/2010 12:15:02 AM PDT by dixiechick2000 (Remember November...I can see it from my house!)
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To: BillyBoy; AuH2ORepublican; Clintonfatigued; fieldmarshaldj; GOPsterinMA; randita

The Dems go all out to win 60% GOP districts and then cling to them for years and have to be dragged kicking and screaming from those seats. We should fight like hell to keep every seat we have.

There's an important distinction between a liberal Republican representing a centrist district VS. a centrist Republican representing a liberal district.

Money quotes.

I was ready to chuck him when he voted for Obamacare. Good thing he changed his mind.

I'd be glad to have him as my Rep. rather than the execrable Stalinist Luis Gutierrez. Hell I'd even take Connie Morella. ;O

If the poll is close to being accurate it could be a local fluke like his initial election. His own explanation that NOLA just likes incumbents may be true. If it's indicative of the size of the anti-rat wave then even our most optimistic predictions would be well exceeded. If would mean rats like Janice Schakowsky could be going down. (to defeat not just on Turkish spies).

40 posted on 07/13/2010 2:15:10 AM PDT by Impy (DROP. OUT. MARK. KIRK.)
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To: freekitty

“Well good for you.”

You must be a lot of fun at a Tea Party rally.


41 posted on 07/13/2010 3:25:36 AM PDT by BobL (The whole point of being human is knowing when the party's over.)
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To: Zhang Fei

“You’re wasting your time trying to convince the witch-burning faction of the GOP that a moderate Republican in a liberal district is worth fighting for. All I can say is that the members of this all-or-nothing faction are set in their ways. “

Yea, I hear you. Much of the time they’re trolls, attempting to demoralize us. You just have to fight them off.


42 posted on 07/13/2010 3:26:34 AM PDT by BobL (The whole point of being human is knowing when the party's over.)
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To: EDINVA

“Middle class black family should by all rights be Republican.”

Tell me about it. So should Hispanics (thankfully, some are). As I mentioned before, Democrats, represent a TINY FACTION of this country, when you look at value base - maybe 10%, at most. There is NO WAY they should have ever gotten this much power - but they did.


43 posted on 07/13/2010 3:29:02 AM PDT by BobL (The whole point of being human is knowing when the party's over.)
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To: BobL
There is NO WAY they should have ever gotten this much power - but they did.

Unicorns that pass skittles are hard to resist.

44 posted on 07/13/2010 5:19:43 AM PDT by randita (Visit keyhouseraces.com for a list of vulnerable DEM and must hold GOP House seats.)
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To: BillyBoy

Re Post #34. That is a great post.

A congressional seat is a terrible thing to waste. Cao is not wasting his. In fact, by voting to the right of his constituency on some key issues, he is really taking risks. Liberal Republicans like Kirk and Specter totally wasted theirs. I rejoiced the day Specter switched parties. No longer would I have to hold my nose shut with vice grips and vote for him as I had done for several elections (never primaries-only general).


45 posted on 07/13/2010 5:24:42 AM PDT by randita (Visit keyhouseraces.com for a list of vulnerable DEM and must hold GOP House seats.)
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To: BobL

BobL, you are wasting your breath on some of these people.

They’ve never dealt with having to win an election in a DEM majority district.


46 posted on 07/13/2010 6:27:45 AM PDT by campaignPete R-CT ("pray without ceasing" - Paul of Tarsus)
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To: AuH2ORepublican; BillyBoy

What are your predictions of the U.S. Senate and House elections? I think that Republicans will gain four seats in the Senate and 25 in the House.


47 posted on 07/13/2010 6:47:37 AM PDT by PhilCollins
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To: randita

Mark Kirk is my congressman, and I’ve never voted for him, since he’s as liberal as all of the Democrats he defeated. I skip that section, of the ballot.


48 posted on 07/13/2010 6:49:54 AM PDT by PhilCollins
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To: PhilCollins

I think you are being too pessimistic regarding the GOP’s chances in November. I think that the GOP has a realistic chance of gaining 12 net Senate seats (for these purposes, I’m counting RINOs like Kirk and Castle as Republicans), and if you made me make a prediction right now I would say that the GOP picks up 11, since the environment won’t get any better for the Democrats come November. In the House, I’ve been talking about a broad range from 50-80 seats for a few months now, and I’ve heard nothing to make me want to reconsider my prediction; if anything, I think that the GOP will gain closer to 75 than to 55. But the election is still over 3 and 1/2 months away, and we won’t know exactly how things will shake out until at least after Labor Day.


49 posted on 07/13/2010 8:46:36 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Many people think that I’m being pessimistic, but I think that I’m being realistic, based on 2008 and ‘06 election results. Please give me a list of at least 40 House districts that will change from Democrat to Repubican, this year.


50 posted on 07/13/2010 8:58:12 AM PDT by PhilCollins
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