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The Key House Races 2010 - Updated - Republicans Gain ^ | 17 July 2010 | Interceptpoint

Posted on 07/17/2010 9:40:36 AM PDT by InterceptPoint

We've made a much requested change to the Master List format. We now show an "Incumbent or Open" column that will make it much easier to see which races are in districts where the seat is OPEN and whether it is a Republican seat or a Democrat seat. For those cases where there is an incumbent we now indicate whether the incumbent is a Republican or a Democrat.

And just a reminder: The Master List has 91 seats and 79 of those are Dem Seats. These are the vulnerable Democrats. We need to generate a net 39 seat pickup from those 79 Dems and right now the KHR projection is for a net pickup of 30 seats. 

Other changes: Martha Roby won the runoff in AL-02 and she will be on the Republican ticket running against the Incumbent Dem Bobby Bright.

There were 10 changes in our "Expert" ratings by Election Projection and one from Real Clear Politics. All were favorable to the Republicans. So it was a shutout week for the Dems. Nice.

Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:

  • There were a total of 11 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
  • 11 were favorable to the Republicans
  • None were favorable to the Democrats

Those change leave our index at -.353. That looks less favorable than last week because of some errors that were discovered in the RCP entries that have been corrected. In any case, this was a good week for the Republicans.

Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page.

Note: On July 20th Georgia will be holding their primary. We have Georgia's District 8 on our Key House Races list so we will be watching that one for sure.

Here is the full schedule for August Primaries:

August 3: Kansas, Michigan and Missouri

August 5: Tennessee

August 10: Colorado, Conecticut, Minnesota and a Georgia Runoff if necessary

August 17: Washington and Wyoming

August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida and Vermont

August 28: Lousiana

District Dem Primary Winner Incumbent
or Open
Republican Incumbent or Challengers ALL Primary Experts District
Or Incumbent Main Challenger Challenger Challenger
AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D Martha Roby AL 1-Jun Toss-Up AL 2
AR 1 Chad Causey Open D Rick Crawford AR 18-May Toss-Up AR 1
AR 2 Joyce Elliott Open D Tim Griffin AR 18-May Leans R AR 2
AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent D Rusty Bowers Bradley Beauchamp Paul Gosar AZ 24-Aug Leans D AZ 1
AZ 5 Harold Mitchell Incumbent D David Schweikert Susan Bitter Smith Dr. Chris Salvino AZ 24-Aug Leans D AZ 5
AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Incumbent D Jonathan Paton Jesse Kelly Brian Miller AZ 24-Aug Leans D AZ 8
CA 3 Ami Bera Incumbent R Dan Lungren CA 8-Jun Leans R CA 3
CA 11 Jerry McNerney Incumbent D David Harmer CA 8-Jun Leans D CA 11
CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Incumbent D Van Tran CA 8-Jun Likely D CA 47
CO 3 John Salazar Incumbent D Scott Tipton Bob McConnell CO 10-Aug Leans D CO 3
CO 4 Betsy Markey Incumbent D Cory Gardner Tom Lucero Dean Madere CO 10-Aug Toss-Up CO 4
CT 4 Jim Himes Incumbent D Dan Debicella Robert Merkle CT 10-Aug Likely D CT 4
CT 5 Christopher Murphy Incumbent D Sam Caligiuri Justin Bernier Mark Greenberg CT 10-Aug Likely D CT 5
DE AL Dem Primary Open R Michele Rollins Rose Izzo DE 14-Sep Leans D DE AL
FL 2 Allen Boyd Incumbent D Eddie Hendry David Scholl Steve Southerland FL 24-Aug Leans D FL 2
FL 8 Alan Grayson Incumbent D Daniel Webster Kurt Kelly Bruce O’Donoghue FL 24-Aug Toss-Up FL 8
FL 12 Dem Primary Open R Dennis Ross Randy Wilkinson John Lindsey Jr. FL 24-Aug Likely R FL 12
FL 22 Ron Klein Incumbent D Allen West FL 24-Aug Leans D FL 22
FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Incumbent D Sandy Adams Karen Deibel Craig Miller FL 24-Aug Toss-Up FL 24
FL 25 Dem Primary Open R David Rivera Paul Crespo Marili Cancio (I) FL 24-Aug Leans R FL 25
GA 8 Jim Marshall Incumbent D Austin Scott Paul Rish Angela Hicks GA 20-Jul Likely D GA 8
HI 1 Colleen Hanabusa Incumbent R Charles Djou HI 18-Sep Toss-Up HI 1
IA 3 Leonard Boswell Incumbent D Brad Zaun IA 8-Jun Leans D IA 3
ID 1 Walter Minnick Incumbent D Raul Labrador ID 25-May Leans D ID 1
IL 8 Melissa Bean Incumbent D Joe Walsh IL 2-Feb Likely D IL 8
IL 10 Dan Seals Open R Bob Dold IL 2-Feb Toss-Up IL 10
IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Incumbent D Adam Kinzinger IL 2-Feb Leans D IL 11
IL 14 Bill Foster Incumbent D Randy Hultgren IL 2-Feb Toss-Up IL 14
IN 2 Joe Donnelly Incumbent D Jackie Walorski IN 4-May Likely D IN 2
IN 8 W. Trent Van Haaften Open D Dr. Larry Bucshon IN 4-May Toss-Up IN 8
IN 9 Baron Hill Incumbent D Todd Young IN 4-May Toss-Up IN 9
KS 3 Open D (Moore) Open D Kevin Yoder Patricia Lightner KS 3-Aug Toss-Up KS 3
LA 2 Dem Primary Incumbent R Joseph Cao LA 28-Aug Leans D LA 2
LA 3 Open D (Melancon) Open D Hunt Downer Jeff Landry Kristian Magar LA 28-Aug Leans R LA 3
MA 10 Open D (Delahunt) Open D Jeff Perry Joe Malone Ray Kasperowicz MA 14-Sep Toss-Up MA 10
MD 1 Frank Kratovil Incumbent D Andy Harris Jeannie Haddoway-Riccio Jeff Ghrist MD 14-Sep Leans R MD 1
MI 1 Open D (Stupak) Open D Dr. Daniel Benishek Tom Stillings Jason Allen MI 3-Aug Toss-Up MI 1
MI 7 Mark Schauer Incumbent D Tim Walberg Brian Rooney Marvin Carlson MI 3-Aug Toss-Up MI 7
MI 9 Gary Peters Incumbent D "Rocky" Raczowski Paul Welday Anna Janek MI 3-Aug Likely D MI 9
MN 1 Tim Walz Randy Demmer MN 14-Sep Likely D MN 1
MN 6 Dem Primary Incumbent R Michele Bachmann MN 10-Aug Likely R MN 6
MO 4 Ike Skelton Incumbent D Bill Stouffer Vicky Hartzler Art Madden MO 3-Aug Leans D MO 4
MS 1 Travis Childers Incumbent D Alan Nunnelee MS 1-Jun Toss-Up MS 1
NC 8 Larry Kissell Incumbent D Harold Johnson NC 4-May Leans D NC 8
ND AL Earl Pomeroy Incumbent D Rick Berg ND 8-Jun Toss-Up ND AL
NE 2 Tom White Incumbent R Lee Terry NE 11-May Likely R NE 2
NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Frank Guinta Rich Ashooh Bob Bestani NH 14-Sep Toss-Up NH 1
NH 2 Open D (Paul Hodes) Open D Jennifer Horn Charlie Bass Bob Giuda NH 14-Sep Toss-Up NH 2
NJ 3 John Adler Incumbent D Jon Runyan NJ 8-Jun Leans D NJ 3
NM 1 Martin Heinrich Incumbent D Jon Barela NM 1-Jun Leans D NM 1
NM 2 Harry Teague Incumbent D Steve Pearce NM 1-Jun Leans R NM 2
NV 3 Dina Titus Incumbent D Dr. Joe Heck NV 8-Jun Toss-Up NV 3
NY 1 Tim Bishop Incumbent D Randy Altschuler George Demos Chris Cox NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 1
NY 13 Mike McMahon Incumbent D Mike Grimm Michael Allegretti NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 13
NY 19 John Hall Incumbent D Nan Hayworth Thomas DeChiaro NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 19
NY 20 Scott Murphy Incumbent D Chris Gibson NY 14-Sep Likely D NY 20
NY 23 Bill Owens Incumbent D Doug Hoffman Matt Doheny NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 23
NY 24 Mike Arcuri Incumbent D Richard Hanna NY 14-Sep Toss-Up NY 24
NY 25 Dan Maffei Incumbent D Ann Marie Buerkle NY 14-Sep Likely D NY 25
NY 29 Open D (Massa) Open D Tom Reed Angelo Campini George Winner NY 14-Sep Leans R NY 29
OH 1 Steve Driehaus Incumbent D Steve Chabot OH 4-May Leans R OH 1
OH 2 Surya Yalamanchili Incumbent R Jean Schmidt OH 4-May Safe R OH 2
OH 13 Betty Sutton Incumbent D Tom Ganley OH 4-May Leans D OH 13
OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Incumbent D Steve Stivers OH 4-May Leans R OH 15
OH 16 John Boccieri Incumbent D Jim Renacci OH 4-May Leans D OH 16
OH 18 Zach Space Incumbent D Bob Gibbs OH 4-May Leans D OH 18
PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Incumbent D Mike Kelly PA 18-May Leans D PA 3
PA 4 Jason Altmire Incumbent D Keith Rothfus PA 18-May Likely D PA 4
PA 6 Manan Trivedi Incumbent R Jim Gerlach PA 18-May Likely R PA 6
PA 7 Bryan Lentz Open D Pat Meehan PA 18-May Toss-Up PA 7
PA 8 Patrick Murphy Incumbent D Mike Fitzpatrick PA 18-May Leans D PA 8
PA 10 Chris Carney Incumbent D Tom Marino PA 18-May Leans D PA 10
PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Incumbent D Lou Barletta PA 18-May Toss-Up PA 11
PA 12 Mark Critz Incumbent D Timothy Burns PA 18-May Leans D PA 12
PA 17 Tim Holden Incumbent D David Argall PA 18-May Likely D PA 17
SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Incumbent D Mick Mulvaney SC 8-Jun Leans D SC 5
SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Incumbent D Kristi Noem SD 8-Jun Toss-Up SD AL
TN 4 Lincoln Davis Incumbent D Jack Bailey Dr. Scott Desjarlais Kent Greenough TN 5-Aug Likely D TN 4
TN 6 Open D (Gordon) Open D Jim Tracy Diane Black Lou Ann Zelenik TN 5-Aug Likely R TN 6
TN 8 Open D (Tanner) Open D Stephen Fincher George Flinn TN 5-Aug Toss-Up TN 8
TX 17 Chet Edwards Incumbent D Bill Flores TX 13-Apr Toss-Up TX 17
TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Incumbent D Francisco "Quico" Canseco TX 13-Apr Likely D TX 23
VA 2 Glenn Nye Incumbent D Scott Rigell VA 8-Jun Toss-Up VA 2
VA 5 Tom Perriello Incumbent D Robert Hurt VA 8-Jun Toss-Up VA 5
VA 9 Rick Boucher Incumbent D Morgan Griffith VA 8-Jun Leans D VA 9
VA 11 Gerald Connolly Incumbent D Keith Fimian VA 8-Jun Leans D VA 11
WA 3 Open D (Baird) Open D Jaime Herrera David Castillo David Hedrick WA 17-Aug Toss-Up WA 3
WA 8 Dem Primary Incumbent R Dave Reichert WA 17-Aug Leans R WA 8
WI 7 Open D (Obey) Open D Sean Duffy Dan Mielke WI 14-Sep Toss-Up WI 7
WI 8 Steve Kagen Terri McCormick Roger Roth Marc Savard WI 14-Sep Leans D WI 8
WV 1 Mike Oliverio Open D David B. McKinley WV 11-May Toss-Up WV 1
Code Color Code Indicates
New Entry or Major Change Average Expert’s Rating of the Master List -0.353
Upcoming Primary or Runoff
Republican Primary Winner - Completed Primary
Republican Open Seat or Contested Seat
Open Dem Seat
Updated 17-Jul-10
Rating and Color Code Average Expert
From To
Safe D -3 -2.5
Likely D -2.5 -1.5
Leans D -1.5 -0.5
Toss-Up -0.5 0
Toss-Up 0 0.5
Leans R 0.5 1.5
Likely R 1.5 2.5
Safe R 2.5 3.5

TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2010midterms; election2010; goppickups; keyhouseraces; khr
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To: InterceptPoint

thanks for the update

41 posted on 07/17/2010 3:58:35 PM PDT by PMAS
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To: Political Junkie Too


42 posted on 07/17/2010 4:51:39 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

I agree with your prediction that Democrats will have small majorities, next year. I think that Republicans will gain 25 seats in the House and four in the Senate.

43 posted on 07/17/2010 4:56:57 PM PDT by PhilCollins
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To: InterceptPoint

Thank you for all your work in setting up that great schedule.

44 posted on 07/17/2010 7:07:18 PM PDT by potlatch (*snip* - *snap*)
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Comment #45 Removed by Moderator

To: randita; nhwingut

Mahoney definitely looks like Guinta’s main competition. Gotta bump one of those other 2 guys off the list.

Months ago it appeared to me that Guinta would take the primary in a walk. Things have changed it seems.

Nhwingut seems like a good guy to go to for New Hampshire updates.

46 posted on 07/17/2010 11:17:58 PM PDT by Impy (DROP. OUT. MARK. KIRK.)
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To: randita

Cao’s district is shown as leaning Dem in this survey, I believe, so he can’t be too comfortable.

47 posted on 07/18/2010 12:55:04 AM PDT by saganite (What happens to taglines? Is there a termination date?)
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To: InterceptPoint; randita

RE: Delaware

Moderate Michelle Rollins is the frontrunner, her main foe is the more conservative Glen Urquhart.

Rose Izzo is an also ran.

48 posted on 07/18/2010 1:31:00 AM PDT by Impy (DROP. OUT. MARK. KIRK.)
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To: nhwingut; InterceptPoint

We’ll shuffle that race around and list Sean Mahoney second. Things have really changed up there in the last couple of months. Bottom line is Che-Porter is very vulnerable and needs to go.

Is it okay to put you on the ping list? It would be helpful to have your input on both the NH races we have listed. Just chime in if you see anything you think needs a closer look.


49 posted on 07/18/2010 6:43:32 AM PDT by randita (Visit for a list of vulnerable DEM and must hold GOP House seats.)
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To: InterceptPoint
California 47th Sanchez vs. Tran.

Van Tran has a real opportunity to take this one. The Vietnamese community is strong and getting stronger, he is well regarded by many and like so many Vietnamese who fled South Viet Nam when they could, he is a solid Conservative:

50 posted on 07/18/2010 8:45:13 AM PDT by Michael.SF. (Even Hitler had Government run health care, but at least he got the Olympics for Germany)
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To: InterceptPoint; grellis; AdmSmith; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; bigheadfred; blueyon; ...

Nice work! Thanks InterceptPoint.

51 posted on 07/18/2010 9:11:22 AM PDT by SunkenCiv ("Fools learn from experience. I prefer to learn from the experience of others." -- Otto von Bismarck)
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To: Springman; sergeantdave; cyclotic; netmilsmom; RatsDawg; PGalt; FreedomHammer; queenkathy; ...
If you would like to be added or dropped from the Michigan ping list, please freepmail me.

Race updates

52 posted on 07/18/2010 10:32:38 AM PDT by grellis (I am Jill's overwhelming sense of disgust.)
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To: grellis

thanks for the ping!!!

53 posted on 07/18/2010 10:36:29 AM PDT by gibsosa
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To: InterceptPoint
We are only half way through the Primary season so we have a situation where for about 1/2 the races we don't know who the candidates are.

True, a lot of these races are going to solidify after the primaries. You have my district (Mi-7) listed as a toss up but we're a traditionally GOP district. Once were down to just GOP vs Dem i think it will lean pretty firmly in the direction of the GOP.

Also there's the fact that you can't judge the feeling on the ground or read every comment made by the candidates. The democrat has admitted that his chances or reelection in this district are not great without Obama on the ticket. Also his fundraising appears to be primarily outside the district so I don't think he's getting much support from the actual voters.

I'm not trying to be critical, just trying to explain the uncontrolable limitations of your analysis for those who may be discouraged.
54 posted on 07/18/2010 11:20:49 AM PDT by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin! (look it up))
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To: InterceptPoint; randita
For what it's worth, here is my analysis of the Senate races, based on the most recent Rasmussen polls.

Week GOP
of 51
18-Jul-10 47 48.84 50 6.95% 7


55 posted on 07/18/2010 12:04:20 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ("Comprehensive" reform bills only end up as incomprehensible messes.)
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To: Michael.SF.; InterceptPoint

Thanks for the input on that race. That was B1 Bob’s old seat - correct? So there have to be a lot of conservatives left in that district.

Joseph Cao, LA-2, is another first generation Vietnamese who has worked hard and thrived. We’re hoping we hold on to that seat.

Please keep us posted on any polls or other relevant information concerning this race.

56 posted on 07/18/2010 12:49:59 PM PDT by randita (Visit for a list of vulnerable DEM and must hold GOP House seats.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

I think it’s worth a lot. Often, we get inquiries about how the senate races are going and we really don’t know because we’re only focussed on the House ones - that’s enough to keep us very busy. So you are a good resource for information about the senate.

Your +7 number pretty much jives with what I’ve seen on CQ, Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato, etc.

57 posted on 07/18/2010 1:03:38 PM PDT by randita (Visit for a list of vulnerable DEM and must hold GOP House seats.)
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To: InterceptPoint

When you click on the name Dave Argall for PA against Mark Crist, the link takes you to Frank Ryan’s site.

Unfortantely Col. Ryan lost to Mr. Argall for the nomination. You will want to remove the link and replace it with one that takes the reader to Argall’s site.

Nothing about Dave Argall is related to Frank Ryan’s site.

58 posted on 07/18/2010 1:58:54 PM PDT by HonestConservative (Remember; You can't spell Mohammed without HAM.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

A 7 seat pickup sounds about right.

The problem here will be that the RINOs from the North East will become even more important than they are now when the Senate is close to 50/50. If the Republicans end up winning the Senate then they will the Kings and Queens who decide our fate. But I guess that is better than what we have now.

59 posted on 07/19/2010 7:28:53 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: HonestConservative
When you click on the name Dave Argall for PA against Mark Crist, the link takes you to Frank Ryan’s site.

I checked our original database, an Excel file, and it was correct with the link pointing to Dave Argall's campaign website. But the version posted on FR does point to the Frank Ryan website.

We did have Frank Ryan on our list before the primaries of course and it turns out that when I deleted the Frank Ryan entry in the Excel file it didn't actually delete the link. The field was blank but the link was still there. I guess that's an Excel feature not a bug. So I've updated the file to delete hidden Frank Ryan link so it should be OK the next time you see it.

Thanks for heads up.

60 posted on 07/19/2010 7:45:28 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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