Posted on 07/24/2010 8:54:50 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
Yes. Best estimate right now is a 30 seat pickup. We need 39 seats and we need some margin. So I think we have quite a way to go. But the trend is in our favor. If it continues we will make it.
Thanks for the ping! :)
Very good news I.P.
I don’t know any experts but FL-2 is not leaning D this time. The incumbent can’t win, in fact, he may get Primaried.
I don’t know any experts but FL-2 is not leaning D this time. The incumbent can’t win, in fact, he may get Primaried.
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You may be right. Rothenberg just moved FL-02 to Toss-Up this week. He smells something. RCP also rates it as Toss-Up. We need some polls. If they show the Dems in trouble the “Experts” will come around.
I agree with you re FL-02. I’m not sure why the experts haven’t caught up with what’s going on down there.
It’s been reported in Politico that Boyd has spent $1.4 million already in his bid to stave off Al Lawson, who is attacking him from the left. Boyd voted for cap and trade AND health care reform, yet Lawson is attacking him for his “conservative” record.
A poll earlier this year showed Southerland (R) beating Boyd by double digits. If Boyd does manage to scrape by in the primary, he’s going to have a pretty empty piggy bank. I guess that’s why the DCCC has bought a bunch of airtime already in this market to defend this seat.
Lawson is not a good fit at all for this conservative district which voted for Bush twice and picked McCain by 9 over Obama. Guess we should be rooting for Lawson to win.
Make Nancy fly coach!
Thanks, as always for ping, and all the work of the team!
A whoohoo for NY20, all the hard work of the campaign is starting to ‘show’ our headway. Last time, Sabato moved his ranking, this week 2 changes EP/Cook
NY20—
Chris Gibson for Congress
http://www.chrisgibsonforcongress.com/
FReepers, take a look at Chris, and send something if you can. We will turn this district back to RED
Quote:
There were a total of 44 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
37 were favorable to the Republicans
7 were favorable to the Democrats
Please keep me on the list. Thanks.
You are really missing the boat by excluding IL-9 from your list ... Joel Pollak’s challenge to Jan Schakowsky is begining to draw some national attention, and she’s starting to flail at him rather than igoring him as she has previous challengers ... Joel Pollak is the real deal.
We'll take a look at IL-09. We're in the process of reviewing our "Tier 2 List" of those races that are candidates for moving up to the Master List. We won't do it unless we have very strong evidence that the race is really in play. Right now that means we need our "Experts" to think so. Later it will be the polls as they come out. If you have any poll data please pass it on.
Thanks InterceptPoint!
From today’s Comic Appeal
From today’s Comic Appeal 54% of Tennesseans rank economy, jobs as the most important issue, followed by taxes, government spending, state budget shortfall, which 22% listed as most important issue or problem.
Republicans showing big improvements in turnout. 1 week after early voting Deidre Malone (D) posted to her facebook “have you voted yet? I normally wait until election day, but I’m getting a little concerned about early voting numbers, specifically D numbers. Who wants to join me and vote early?”
Saturday was again a disappointing day for D turnout, & strongest yet for R, with 2006 (52%) voters asking for D ballot 1858 45%. Huge reversal from numbers seen in ‘06-’08 when up to 70% asked for D ballots. and registered black voters often comprised 45% of a given day’s turn out. Over all turnout is 41,344 or 6.9% of the 600,518 registered voters in Shelby Co. If second week of early voting ends with traditional spike 90,00-100,00 votes are possible. Which would set a record turnout pn pace to surpass the ‘06 Aug primary, when nearly 159,00 voted.
The latest chart.
Thanks for the ping & for doing this.
BTW are you not following the IL 9? Does Pollack have a chance? How Democratic is that District?
Also, do you have anything on the Senate races?
Can we pick up both houses?
Thanks for the ping & for doing this.
BTW are you not following the IL 9? Does Pollack have a chance? How Democratic is that District?
Also, do you have anything on the Senate races?
Can we pick up both Houses?
We are only working the House Races. There will be plenty of attention to the Senate by others. But my personal opinion is that we have a better shot at regaining the House than the Senate. That's really the the goal of KeyHouseRaces.com: Help Republicans take back the House.
As to IL-09. It's not our radar screen at this point. If it's not on the Master List you can take a look at our "Tier-2 list" that has the races that we are watching as possible candidates to be promoted to our main list. I don't see IL-09 in either place. That's because the polls and the "Expert's" evaluation of the district tell us that the race looks safe for the Dems, or in some instances for the Republicans.
But stay tuned. Things change. If you see any favorable IL-09 polls let us know.
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