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To: Political Junkie Too

The circles that you frequent must be full of people that produce power point graphs for those who don’t understand what they are seeing.

I pointed out one small thing that you could have, all by yourself, googled and learned from. Instead you refused to take personal responsibility for what you wrote (”In the circles that I frequent”) and tried to protect your original conception of your credibility.

Sorry guy but blaming others doesn’t make up for a mistake in judgment.

The fact that you talk about things you don’t really understand is one reason why I think this ping list is dumb, D U M B, dumb. Another is that using ensemble averages of data based on different sampling techniques is the oldest dumb mistake of sophomoric self proclaimed statisticians. Since you’re giving me the brush off, I can only assume you don’t want to know about your errors in trying to make do without a formal understanding of the Logistics Regression Function.


40 posted on 07/24/2010 2:34:04 PM PDT by MontaniSemperLiberi
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi
You don't know me, I don't know you. My circles are quite credible, as I'm sure are yours, but I wasn't insulting in how I approached you.

I did google your comments, hence my second post to you. I determined that the distinction was splitting hairs for the purpose here.

If you have an argument with the results of my post, then say so, but don't waste my time on terminology.

-PJ

41 posted on 07/24/2010 2:37:40 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ("Comprehensive" reform bills only end up as incomprehensible messes.)
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi; Political Junkie Too; randita
Another is that using ensemble averages of data based on different sampling techniques is the oldest dumb mistake of sophomoric self proclaimed statisticians.

Well don't blame Political Junkie Too for that 'mistake'. I'll take credit for that one. But it is worth noting that this series of 'mistakes' results in a predicted Republican gain of 30 seats in the House. That's pretty much the consensus these days among the political types. So PJToo seems to have 'stumbled' on the right answer. Just lucky I guess.

I'm curious. How would you estimate the number of Republicans seats we are going to have in January 2011?

And one more: What do you think the 'sampling techniques' are? We have 6 experts and 6 opinions. We average those opinions. These guys are reading polls and making their call. I see nothing wrong with averaging those inputs. Subjective IN - Subjective OUT. We're all guessing right now. These guys are simply sampling the polls and the gossip and the funding and the historical data and drawing their conclusions. I wouldn't call this a 'sampling technique'.

48 posted on 07/24/2010 4:08:18 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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