Posted on 07/28/2010 8:27:12 AM PDT by speciallybland
Mitt Romney continues to look like an overwhelming early favorite for the 2012 New Hampshire primary but the most surprising thing about our newest set of numbers there may be that Ron Paul's in third place, outpolling Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin (albeit by small margins.)
Romney leads the way with 31% to 14% for Newt Gingrich, 13% for Paul, 12% for Huckabee, 9% for Palin, 3% for Tim Pawlenty, and 1% for Mitch Daniels.
Observations from the numbers:
-Among voters who are more likely to support a candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin...Romney leads...with 29% to Palin's 21%. We've written repeatedly about how our 2012 polling shows a disconnect between people liking Palin and being willing to support her for President and this is a great example of it.
-Mike Huckabee's inability to follow up on his Iowa victory with a strong showing in New Hampshire significantly stunted his momentum from the surprising early win in 2008 and it doesn't look like he has much more appeal in the state now than he did then.
-The numbers provide some evidence that the happier GOP voters are with their party in 2012 the better off Romney's going to be. With voters who think the party's too liberal he's tied at 22 with Gingrich. With voters who think the party's too conservative he trails Paul 24-22. But he's up 42-12 on Gingrich with folks who think the party is ideologically 'about right' and that's fueling his overall lead. What happens in this fall's elections could have a big impact on Romney's prospects. If Republicans get back in control the rank and file will be happier and might be more inclined to support a mainstream candidate like Romney. If the party falls short its voters might be more inclined to shake things up and go with someone a lot less conventional than the former Massachusetts Governor.
-Ron Paul's numbers challenge the general assumptions about his support a little bit. With voters who identify themselves as Tea Partiers he's in fifth place with only 9%. With voters who don't identify themselves as such he's in second place with 15%. His son, Rand Paul, has been to some extent the poster child for the Tea Party on the national level but that's not equating to support from that quarter for his dad. Paul's numbers also suggest some appeal to the anti-Palin wing of the party. With GOP primary voters who consider a Palin endorsement to be a negative he's running almost even, getting 23% to Romney's 25%. But he polls at only 6% with people for whom Palin support is a plus.
-We get a lot of e-mail asking us to include Tim Pawlenty in all of our 2012 Presidential polling but his numbers here are a reminder of why we aren't- yet. Pawlenty was at 3% in our New Hampshire polling in April and he's still there. He's getting a lot of attention in insider circles as he positions himself for a 2012 bid but it's not translating to the general public enough yet for him to make a real dent in the polls. Pawlenty still has plenty of time to become a serious player for the Republican nomination but his name recognition isn't to the point yet where we'd get much out of including him every month on our national 2012 poll testing match ups against Obama.
Are we going to repeat this B.S. again-giving states like NH and Iowa undeserved attention?
Why don’t we just get this over with and announce that Obama will be the Republican nominee for president in 2012.
LooooooooL...!!
RomneyCare = ObamaCare
End of discussion.
NO WAY we pick Romney.
This poll is worth the paper it is written on.
Romney needs to go away.
Glad to see the GOP is doing everything it can to hand 0bama a second term. When is it going to wise up and STOP HAVING OPEN PRIMARIES IN FLAMINGLY BLUE STATES AT THE START OF THE ELECTION CYCLE?!?!
Did you just start voting? NH has been the first primary for near 100 years.
Once again the media is trying to steer people towards specific individuals before anyone has declared.
Why don't we keep our eyes "peeled" on Puerto Rico this time. ;-)
Yes. The primary path will not change for 2012...these are the facts we have to deal with...strong starts in Iowa and NH are critical in Republican political runs for President...right now, Romney is on top. It remains to be seen, however, about the thought that a happy GOP is a winner for Romney...the proof will be in Nov when we take back the House...magritte
lol
...and of course, Fox's All Star Panel (of NeoCons) will be right there to laugh at Sarah.
So he can get himself elected president of NH and leave the rest of us alone.
“Are we going to repeat this B.S. again-giving states like NH and Iowa undeserved attention?”
Last I recall it takes more than one state to choose a nominee.
Remind me again how many states Hunter, Tancredo or Thompson won in 2008? Thought so.
Don’t get me wrong, I voted hard right in the primary (as always) but it takes more than me, other Freepers and handful of politically aware conservatives in NH to pick our nominee.
The word needs national amplification by grassroots organizations and the conservative media.
The conservative media specifically needs to STOP giving RINOS and party hacks airtime. That means you Hannity, etc. Tell Romney’s people to pound sand. Tell Pawlenty’s people “Tim who?” Tell Huckster to stick to his diet. Tell Newt to work ground not the airwaves. Start putting real conservatives on EVERY SINGLE NIGHT! And start now!
Don’t buy-in to the MSM narrative of who should be our nominee. The base needs to decide on a nominee now and then force our media to push that candidate to the front of the line.
Why is it that our 2012 nominee looks like it will be a 2008 retread?
vaudine
So what?
Listen, my job is to get rid of MY congressman this November. YOUR job is to get rid of YOUR congressman this November.
If we all do our jobs, everything else will take care of itself -— Pelosi and Reid will be out of power, and Obama will be rendered impotent.
We can’t allow New England to give us another establishment Republican, especially the one who gave us Obamacare. Throw out all the old garbage.
I fully understand these state’s placements in the race, but that should not be enough to give them so much sway in the final decision. Obama gamed caucus Iowa and creamed Hillary who had much wider appeal. We pay thru the nose for the ridiculous ethanol program because of Iowa’s slot in the primaries. Refuse to be swayed by the early polls..it’s a dummie’s game.
One more reason to move New Hampshire’s primary to a Super Tuesday where they can be just another state in the chaos.
Put a couple of closed primaries from large states to the front of the line and watch Mittens shrink and wither.
Well.
New England.
‘Nuff said.
I like the way you think.
Romney-Care is just Obama-Care cross dressed EXACTELY..
Romney is a Progressive just as John McLaim is.. and Huckabee too..
AND also anybody elected from MAINE(or Vermont)..
Unless an “October Surprise” changes everything! It could cancel the November 2 election, or not! It’s all a guessing game. Obama is destroying the entire country on purpose, and he’s not even concerned about the upcoming November 2 election. What’s the definitive answer as to why Obama isn’t concerned about the upcoming November 2 election? Is Obama just out of touch, or does he have a plan(s) in place, before November 2?
i was a romney guy last round... but he showed himself to have a weakness that the media beat to death... his mormon religion. he never was able to put the media in its place, and they buried him with it.
nominating him would guarantee the left a candidate they can shoot down. which is EXACTLY what they want.
compare his inability to deal with the media to Sarah Palin’s handling of the media. with just facebook, she has made them look ridiculous.
any republican candidate given time in the media these days is the lefts attempt to undermine Sarah. romney should understand this, not play into their bs, and step down.
Re: Maine. Paul LePage isn’t a Progressive. He’s leading in the polls for Governor.
I think Palin can win Iowa, but then she needs SC to make up for NH.
Nah. We don’t want him.
I agree as well....it’s not insurmountable for a conservative candidate to survive through the first couple...it’s gonna take a TON of money...magritte
There really was no effective conservative alternative to McCain, I think there’s more hope for conservatives to hang together behind Palin this time. Also, Ron Paul could be an Obama-sustainer or a queen-maker, depending upon which route he chooses. And, knowing common family dynamics, Rand Paul could be influential in that. If they get behind Palin and she unites libertarians and conservatives against the Establishment statists, there’s hope indeed.
Interesting poll.
Sarah Palin should want Ron Paul in the NH primary.
Ron Paul gets 37% of the 18-29.
Palin gets 0% of the 18-29.
If Ron Paul wasn’t in the race, it’s extremely likely that Ron Pauls votes would not go to Palin, but to someone else, like Romney or Gingrich or whoever else it is that’s running.
What’s your thinking about that - Ron Paul either helping or hurting Palin.
I looked at the crosstabs fairly closely.
Personally, I like both Ron Paul and Sarah Palin. And Mitt Gingabee is unacceptable.
But there’s very little overlap between Pauls support and Palins support in this poll. I find that surprising, but it’s there in the polls.
Mitt Gingabee has many a big government scheme to their name and Palin and Paul lack those. Voters don’t seem to see it that way.
I think that’s because with the whole anti-abortion/Trip/Track/Trick thing, Palin is known and feared in the Northeast as a religious-fundamentalist conservative. NH, when it veers right, is basically libertarian more than ‘conservative’ and Palin’s been successfully painted as the latter throughout the Boston media market, of which NH is a part.
I think she can win nationally with a Reaganesque economic conservatism, but she’ll have to get out of the conservative branding and establish her libertarian bona fides within the Lower 48 to make many on the coasts and in the major cities sufficiently comfortable with her.
NH could be seen as a good first test for that—or as already too far gone for her to hope to win unless she’s already built a primary landslide.
How do you know.. You ask him?...
Huh? There were 7 candidates for Governor of Maine. LePage was one of 2 solid conservatives - Beardsley was the other one. LePage won.
Ok, that makes some sense. I haven’t really gotten the impression that Palin is a super Socon. I guess others feel that way.
I think Todd’s very libertarian and she’s at least moderately so. Embellished or made up stories like the book-banning one have contributed to her being caricatured in a socon way, at least here in the Northeast. She’s got some rebranding to do, but I think it will be authentic, so she’s got a chance with it.
Are the people in Maine cross dressed as conservatives.. when they are really DEMOCRATS.. like in Massachusetts.. or Connecticut? or New York?
OR stone socialist parasites like the Canadians, English, Germans, or French?..
I’m saying that Paul LePage is a solid Conservative. I’m not saying that Snowe and Collins are solid Conservatives. Paul LePage had tea party support for the primary and continues to have it.
I would presume that if Romney run, he’d win NH probably, based on the location. NH gets Boston TV, people commute from NH to Boston, etc.
I think Palin will be strong in 2012. She did say that marijuana use wasn’t a big deal - so she does have libertarian positions.
Yep, and he’s had a place up on Lake Winnipesaukee in NH for years.
New Hampshire is a libertarian state or at least becoming more libertarian b/c of the work of the Free State Project. I’m sure the real person to win the next New Hampshire primary will be Ron Paul assuming he runs in 2012. Dr. Paul isnt liked by most freepers or MS conservatives but he is by far the most conservative person in Washington. He is for ending the FED and going back to America’s Constitutional roots.
Bull. "Libertarian" states don't vote for McCain (GOP primary) and Obama (general). And the couple of thousand involved with the "free state project" don't even make a dent in that state compared to the thousands and thousands of leftist former Massachusetts residents invading that state.
I’m sure the real person to win the next New Hampshire primary will be Ron Paul assuming he runs in 2012.
I like Ron Paul but he got 8% in New Hampshire in 2008 after spending so much time there. Things aren't getting much better for him. He'll never go mainstream until he stops going on Alex Jones' show.
Most of those that left MA to go to NH are conservatives. We mostly settle in the southern part of the state that votes conservative. It is the northern and west sections of the state that voted for people like Kerry in 2004...
If it were not for NH, the country would have had Al Gore as president. We should get some credit for that....
NH will be a red state after this next election. 3 R’s to DC and 1 D (Shaheen). Hopefully the R’s will take back the state senate and state house... We probably won’t be able to get rid of the governor (d) until 2012...
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