Battle for the Senate; Map and Ratings

Real Clear Politics ^ | July 29,2010 | RCP Staff

[no dems]

51 Seats Needed For Majority

Likely Dem CT: Open (D) NY: Gillibrand (D) OR: Wyden (D) WV: Open (D)

Leans Dem CA: Boxer (D)

Toss Up CO: Bennet (D) FL: Open (R) IL: Open (D) KY: Open (R) NV: Reid (D) OH: Open (R) PA: Open (D) WA: Murray (D) WI: Feingold (D)

Leans GOP MO: Open (R) NH: Open (R) NC: Burr (R)

Likely GOP AR: Lincoln (D) DE: Open (D) IN: Open (D) IA: Grassley (R) LA: Vitter (R)

[no dems]

For all you hard core Political Junkies: Here's something interesting, from Real Clear Politics, I thought you might enjoy. More detail if you go to the link provided.

[pepsionice]

I don’t see how Boxer gets the plus in California...she’s very likely out in November.

[no dems]

I don’t see how Boxer gets the plus in California...she’s very likely out in November. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ I hope you're right. I think that at this stage of the game, people are going strictly on "name recognition". That will change the closer we get to the Election.
But, I must add, I don't care for Carly. I think they both come across as an old, snobby, rich b****.

[RockinRight]

I like the House map:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html

According to RCP (which, since it includes a lot of left-leaning and inaccurate polls, probably leans a bit Dem), the GOP has 201 SOLID House seats already...and only needs to win 17 of the tossups.

Also quite interesting that almost all the “leaning” GOP seats are actually currently held by Dems.

[tcrlaf]

Several states that were listed as SAFE (D) as late as March are now certain Repub, or very competitive.

Bayh was run out by the crazies in the Democrat Party, And Carnahan, Feingold, Murray and Lincoln should all have been safe(D).

The Soros-manipulated nutroots crazies are destroying the party from within.

[Clintonfatigued]

North Dakota is a very likely pickup and even DemocRATS seem resigned to losing that seat.

I largely agree with this list. I would add that Kentucky, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are leaning slightly to Republicans.

Also, there are two states (Kansas and Alaksa) which are safe Republican but feature important primaries between establishment and grass roots conservative candidates.

[RockinRight]

My prediction today would be:

Senate breaks even at 50/50. GOP ends up winning the house 232/203.

[Clintonfatigued]

There needs to be some fundraising for Republican nominees in some states, including Colorado, New Hampshire, and Washington state (which haven’t had primaries yet).

In Utah, it’s safe Republican, but the new incumbent (Bob Bennett) was rejected and the man who defeated him, Mike Lee, is considerably more conservative. We’ve already come out ahead there. In Alaksa, the RINO incumbent faces a conservative primary challenge. And there is the aforementioned primary in Kansas.

[nbenyo]

Boxer always looks vulnerable and then pulls ahead in the home stretch, due to California’s Democrat leaning.

[no dems]

Latest polls show us winning AR (Lincoln) in a cake walk. We are leading in WI (Feingold) and WA (Murray). Polls show either, Rossi or Didier, defeating Murray.

Now, MO is a toss-up for sure, but it is a Conservative State outside of St. Louis and Kansas City. B. Hussein Obama is not on the ballot so I look for the GOP to hold onto this seat.

[no dems]

Unfortunately, the RINO, Moran, is leading in the GOP Primary in KS quite handily.

[no dems]

Did anyone notice that Nevada is still in the “toss-up” column even though Harry Reid has made gains by discrediting and slandering Sharron Angle.

Someone give me your honest take on NV. Is Harry gonna stay in office or is there a silent, ground swell of anti-incumbency that is going to rise up on November 2nd and send the old fart packing?

[no dems]

Thanks for the link and the insight. I checked it out; very encouraging.

[seton89]

Has Gillibrand announced a position on The Mosque in NYC?

[Michael.SF.]

Sounds a bit optimistic for the Senate, but not by much. If one looks at the ‘toss-up’ states it is indicative of how deep the problems are for the Dims.

[JLS]

During the 2006 election coverage when it was doubtful that the Dims would pick up the Senate on one of the old “Beltway Boys” shows [I think] they pointed out that the House has never changed hands without the Senate also changing hands. [Or that is how I remember the bit of political trivia.] And that year it took a very late election night and the loss by Sen Allen to make the Senate change.

To me it will be interesting to see if that holds true this time too. This election seems alot like 2006 to me. Things seem to all be trending one way.

[MitchellC]

Seems odd that KY is listed as a toss-up, but MO is ‘leans GOP.’ They’ve been pretty identical in the polls.

[no dems]

Has Gillibrand announced a position on The Mosque in NYC?
______________________________________________________________
Good question; I don’t know. If she does announce in FAVOR of it, hopefully the 2 million Jews in New York will vote Republican, for one time in their life, and send her packing.

[no dems]

My prediction today would be:

Senate breaks even at 50/50. GOP ends up winning the house 232/203.
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________

I’d settle for that.

[DaxtonBrown]

[Someone give me your honest take on NV.]

My honest take is that it all depends on me. I wrote a book about Reid that goes after bribery charges and collusion with some pretty nefarious characters (click my name to see more). If I get traction in the national media, it takes the heat off Sharron. If I don’t get traction, then she may be swamped by Harry’s money.

[Repeal The 17th]

bump to top and
bookmark for later read

[randita]

My honest opinion is maybe (he’ll stay in office).

But I would have said that about Daschle as well several months before the election, and he got ousted. But Thune was a better candidate than Angle- more experience and battle tested as he ran for Senate in 2004 against Johnson and lost by only around 500 votes.

I do disagree with those who think that Lowden or Tarkanian would have had a better chance against Reid. Anyone of them would have gotten the same treatment. After faring poorly initially, Angle seems to be using the dog days of summer to regroup and fine tune. She’ll need lots of money, but she does have excitement on her side and with support by conservative stalwarts like Palin, she should be able to raise enough money.

[no dems]

Angle seems to be using the dog days of summer to regroup and fine tune. She’ll need lots of money, but she does have excitement on her side...

Thanks for the encouraging word. It's 94 days away; anything can happen.

[no dems]

O.K., I'm no marketing expert but may I suggest:

#1. Get a copy of your book to the Angle Campaign with a letter telling them that you are willing to do what you can to help oust Harry Reid.

#2. If you could have a face-to-face meeting with someone in the hierarchy of the Angle Campaign it would be worth the drive over to Nevada or a "cheap" Southwest Airlines plane ticket.

#3. See if the Angle Campaign can get you on local (Nevada) TV and Radio "Talk-show" Stations. That's where the votes for this race are anyhow; not nationwide. If the Angle Campaign is unresponsive, make contact with folks in the Nevada Tea Party movement. You might be surprised who those people might be able to put you in contact with. And finally.....

#4. Send a copy of your book to: Mark Levin, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, Laura Ingraham, Bill O'Reilly, Glenn Beck and anyone else you can think of. (Include in that list any radio talk-show stations in Nevada. They are always looking for people of interest to come on their programs).

There's still time. We have a little over 3 months. Your expose' of Reid could work best right before the Election. That way, Harry would not have adequate to to respond to (lie his way out of) the facts presented in your book Maybe some other Freepers have some suggestions. I wish you the best.

[no dems]

Remember DaxtonBrown, it was one Freeper who exposed Dan Rather's bogus military DD Form 214 on George W. Bush and caused Dan Rather to leave the national stage in disgrace. You could be the man who saves America from Harry Reid.

[RockinRight]

Agreed. Actually, I thought the Senate would be untouchable but the House a likely pickup, I’m shocked at how well things look for us in the Senate as of now.

However, I don’t want a repeat of 1996 where Obama (like Clinton) can sail to re-election by taking credit for Republican successes while blaming the Republicans for things that aren’t going well. I’d almost rather we get one while the Dems keep the other (or the aforementioned 50/50 split) so we can stop Obama’s agenda (and possibly not fund Obamacare) while the Dems can still be in control in the Senate so WE have a boogeyman other than Obama in 2012.

[Impy]

Unfortunately, the RINO, Moran, is leading in the GOP Primary in KS quite handily.

Oh come on. Tihart is only slightly more conservative than Moran overall. Moran is no RINO. Support Tihart all you want but there's no need for this nonsense. This is not a conservative versus RINO primary. If you are looking for one of those try Alaska and Delaware.

[Impy]

North Dakota is a very likely pickup

It's more likely that the Sun sets in the east on election night than the democrats hold that seat. ;D

[no dems]

Ref. your Post #27: If I’ve “bought into” some erroneous info about Moran, I apologize. I hope you’re right. I assume you live there so I’ll take your word for it. And, I must say, I feel much better about that race now.

Thanks,
no dems

[Impy]

I don’t live in KS. But you don’t have to in order to know what’s going on.

Moran is closer to the establishment so backing Tihart is probably the right play but there’s no need to worry if Moran wins.