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Why the Dems will lose Congress
NY Post ^ | July 31, 2010 | Michael Barone

Posted on 07/31/2010 2:47:16 AM PDT by Scanian

Democratic spin doctors have set out how their side is going to hold on to a majority in the House. They'll capture four at-risk Republican seats, hold half of the next 30 or so Democratic at-risk seats, and avoid significant losses on target seats lower on the list.

That's one plausible scenario. The shift of opinion away from Democrats, so evident in the polls, could turn out to be illusory. The widely held assumption that Republicans will turn out in greater numbers than Democrats could prove wrong.

Democratic candidates do indeed have a money advantage in many close races, and their campaign committee has more cash than its Republican counterpart.

All that said, this Democratic spin sounds a lot like the Republican spin back in the 2006 cycle. If the numbers don't change too much from 2004, Republicans said then, we can hold on. If the numbers don't change too much from 2008, Democrats think now, we can hold on.

(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: genericballot; house; incumbents; republicans

1 posted on 07/31/2010 2:47:17 AM PDT by Scanian
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To: Scanian

Never forget the ACORN factor in this.
Why aren’t these columnists mentioning it?


2 posted on 07/31/2010 2:53:27 AM PDT by RandallFlagg (30-year smoker, E-Cigs helped me quit, and O wants me back smoking again?)
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To: RandallFlagg

Ya mean the capability of ACORN’s successors to still cheat the vote? Or the infamous Acorngate?


3 posted on 07/31/2010 2:55:11 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: Scanian

The only thing the Dumbs will be able to hang on to is their A$$es as we bounce them out the door. Amen


4 posted on 07/31/2010 2:58:28 AM PDT by gakrak
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To: HiTech RedNeck

Anything. Any mention of ACORN.
You’d think that in an election year, someone on our side would be bringing that subject up.


5 posted on 07/31/2010 3:01:32 AM PDT by RandallFlagg (30-year smoker, E-Cigs helped me quit, and O wants me back smoking again?)
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To: RandallFlagg

I’m planning on visiting some Philadelphia polling places this cycle........


6 posted on 07/31/2010 3:05:48 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (Too many conservatives urge retreat when the war of politics doesn't go their way.)
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To: Scanian

Going to be a lot of dead people vote in the November election for the chad counters.


7 posted on 07/31/2010 3:15:00 AM PDT by Vaduz
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To: Erik Latranyi

Bring a video camera/phone.


8 posted on 07/31/2010 3:16:43 AM PDT by RandallFlagg (30-year smoker, E-Cigs helped me quit, and O wants me back smoking again?)
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To: RandallFlagg
ACORN, SEIU, ACLU, UAW, AFT, NEA....all UNIONS - Obama has given them a leg up with your bail out money over the private sector. Obama's Czars, his crooked Sec. of the Treasury, his fabled lies, thinly veiled racism, Marxism, how could he be otherwise, the man was raised by Communists, parents, grandparents and family friends...Obama is a Communist. He is fundamentally changing America by nationalizing private business's and overthrowing Capitalism for Marxist/communistic 'business practices'...backing away from the trees as it were, you can watch it in real time as Hugo Chavez trashes his country. Obama never salutes our flag........Add to the list and let's throw the bum and bums out.
9 posted on 07/31/2010 3:18:59 AM PDT by yoe ("N" is for NO for Progressives in government.)
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To: yoe

The GOP is too ethical to raise dead voters, but can’t it borrow a page from the Rats and run buses to the polls?


10 posted on 07/31/2010 3:22:04 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: Scanian
Why the Dems will lose Congress

Simple... Their 'Liar-in-Chief', the Foreign Occupier.

WAKE UP AMERICA


Dictator, Socialist and Liar in Chief
Dictator, Socialist and Liar in Chief


11 posted on 07/31/2010 3:32:11 AM PDT by BobP (The piss-stream media - Never to be watched again in my house)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

“The GOP is too ethical to raise dead voters, but can’t it borrow a page from the Rats and run buses to the polls?”

Duhhh..How many Americans, AKA Republicans, need a free bus ride to the polls?


12 posted on 07/31/2010 3:34:48 AM PDT by AlexW
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To: Vaduz

‘If its not close, they can’t cheat’- Hopefully it won’t be close-!


13 posted on 07/31/2010 3:35:45 AM PDT by imjimbo (The constitution SHOULD be our "gun permit")
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To: RandallFlagg
Bring a video camera/phone.

....and my violent Panther hunting license.

:)

14 posted on 07/31/2010 3:40:00 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (Too many conservatives urge retreat when the war of politics doesn't go their way.)
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To: HiTech RedNeck
...but can’t it borrow a page from the Rats and run buses to the polls?

THe GOP tried that in Milwaukee in 2004. A bunch of thugs (including the son of a Milwuakee Congresswoman, Gwen Moore) slashed the tires of the rented vans the night before the election. The perps just got a slap on the wrist for interfering in a Federal election.

15 posted on 07/31/2010 3:42:24 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic (Southeast Wisconsin)
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To: HiTech RedNeck
The liberal tactic is not just running busses, but running them at strategic times.

Loading up a busload and taking them to the polls is a lot more effective when you can swamp the polls and pack the lines at around 4:30 - 5:00.

That way, when the people who have a job get a chance to get to the polls after work, they are faced with huge lines composed of unemployed/retired/disabled liberal voters who could have voted anytime during the day, but are rounded up and deposited at the polls in the period between the end of the work day and the closing of the polls.

16 posted on 07/31/2010 3:44:11 AM PDT by Quiller (When you're fighting to survive, there is no "try" -- there is only do, or do not.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

So wise up and keep the buses in a garage. This is warfare.


17 posted on 07/31/2010 3:44:53 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: Quiller

There is a Federal law that employers in the USA must permit time off to vote. For the self employed who would take a hit that is a financial problem, sure. But this is warfare. Excuses need to be cast to the wind and every effort made. Why can’t the GOP stuff lines with outraged grandmas just before the Rats deposit their toiletloads?


18 posted on 07/31/2010 3:48:11 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: HiTech RedNeck

“For the self employed who would take a hit that is a financial problem, sure.”


They’re going to have bigger problems if they don’t vote, like being out of business.


19 posted on 07/31/2010 3:58:22 AM PDT by CommieCutter (A Centrist Democrat is now defined as: between Socialism and Communism.)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

Well there was more than one person, including me, that thought it was pretty stupid to park those vans outside the Milwaukee GOP campaign headquarters. Staffers and volunteers should have taken them home for the night.


20 posted on 07/31/2010 4:07:37 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic (Southeast Wisconsin)
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To: yoe
I got a call from the SEIU yesterday. They are already starting.

I am not going to discuss how the call ended.

21 posted on 07/31/2010 4:37:55 AM PDT by Gorzaloon (CNN:AP:etc:Today, President Obama's stool was firm and well-formed. One end was slightly pointed. ")
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To: RandallFlagg
Never forget the ACORN factor in this.
Why aren’t these columnists mentioning it?

Acorn?
Who are they?
Where was this Acorn you are so scared about in the VA (won by 0bama in 2008), NJ (blue state) and MA (blue state) elections then?

22 posted on 07/31/2010 4:42:39 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: afraidfortherepublic

They’re not called the stupid party for nothing.


23 posted on 07/31/2010 4:50:41 AM PDT by tal hajus ( too disgusted to care...much)
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To: Scanian

If they lose the House, it will be because they suck.

If they keep the House, it will be because of voter fraud.

I say right now we’re at 50/50.


24 posted on 07/31/2010 4:54:25 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Gorzaloon

SEIU ought to know better than to call Gorzaloon.


25 posted on 07/31/2010 4:56:47 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: SmokingJoe

They got discombobulated for a while from Acorngate. This hydra-headed monster will be back in other guises. Count on it.


26 posted on 07/31/2010 4:58:24 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: SoFloFreeper

27 posted on 07/31/2010 5:27:59 AM PDT by estrogen (2012 can't come soon enough)
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To: RandallFlagg

The most important thing the new improved congress can do is make sure groups like ACORN and its spin offs are shut off from funding. The other thing is to make sure there’s no bailout for unions. There must be a price to pay for years upon years and billions when all totaled spent to elect dems and dems only. Had they kept those funds they would not be in as deep a hole as they currently are. It should actually be illegal for them to involve themselves financially in elections. Those funds are for the workers benefits and not in the round about way of helping elect people to make unions bigger.


28 posted on 07/31/2010 5:43:08 AM PDT by wiggen (Government owned slave.)
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To: Scanian

Michael Barone vs Charlie Cook, looks like.

Cook reports he sees “the Republican wave possibly subsiding before November”.

Cspan did a morning segment on Cook of course never mentioning Barone.

Callers clearly Obama bots called in on every line whether dem, gop or independent to trash talk republicans while offering not a single comment of substance.

It was one of that network’s most outlandish episodes as only they can do it.

Good to hear from Barone after that...


29 posted on 07/31/2010 5:43:08 AM PDT by txrangerette ("...hold to the truth; speak without fear". - Glenn Beck -)
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To: wiggen

What really ticks me off is how brain dead Republicans were when they controlled Congress. They could have cut these groups off, but did not.


30 posted on 07/31/2010 5:46:02 AM PDT by rbg81 (When you see Obama, shout: "DO YOUR JOB!!")
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To: Scanian
I love Michael Barone...but he was wrong about the Dems and the healthcare bill.

He was counting the votes in the days leading up to the vote, and said it would not pass.

31 posted on 07/31/2010 5:57:53 AM PDT by what's up
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To: HiTech RedNeck
Hydra-headed monstrers, have, can and will be chopped into pieces. You can count on that too.
No communist gang is going to stop the will of the people. Just go ask the communist Soviet, East German, Romanian, Polish etc regimes which were all swept out of power by an angry citizenry, despite the communist regimes using Soviet style T-54 tanks against the masses.
32 posted on 07/31/2010 6:01:28 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: HiTech RedNeck
SEIU ought to know better than to call Gorzaloon.

They do now. The warmup introduction was, "Oh, you were the people whose thugs beat up that poor black man in Pennsylvania! Yeah, I remember you racist pigs..."

33 posted on 07/31/2010 6:03:01 AM PDT by Gorzaloon (CNN:AP:etc:Today, President Obama's stool was firm and well-formed. One end was slightly pointed. ")
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To: Scanian

I’m not sure how things will turn out in November. All I’ll venture now is that with the history of, and the continuing display of, corruption by the democrat party, many seats will never be in contention. It’s not new, but “District by demographics” is as old as politics itself.

If Rangel doesn’t resign, no problem. He will get the nod. They are used to corruption in Harlem. Don’t forget that he replaced Adam Clayton Powell.

Maxine Waters could be photographed gunning down baby kittens in the streets of Watts and would still be returned to D.C. with an overwhelming majority.

Seniority and vitriol hold the key - see Nancy Pelosi.

The only real surprise in the last decade was the election of Cao in New Orleans in 2008. That was only due to the fact that “Cold Cash” Jefferson was under indictment and most of his consistent constituency (read: moochers) hadn’t been “made whole” & returned to the district.


34 posted on 07/31/2010 6:05:37 AM PDT by hotshu (Keep the Faith, that's all 0bama and his fellow traitors can't steal from us.)
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To: txrangerette
Michael Barone vs Charlie Cook, looks like.

It's not even close. Michael Barone is a vastly better elections prognosticator than Charlie Cook will ever be, and Barone has an excellent record to back up what he says. After all, Barone was the first analyst to predict a big Republican win in 1994. Where was Charlie Cook at the time?

35 posted on 07/31/2010 6:11:14 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: what's up
I love Michael Barone...but he was wrong about the Dems and the healthcare bill.
He was counting the votes in the days leading up to the vote, and said it would not pass.

# 1. That was not an election. It was a vote in congress.
# 2. The Democrats used parliamentary tricks to pass 0bamacre without actually bringing it back for a vote in the US Senate, which they would have lost.
# 3. Michael Barone has been right on practically every major elections in recent American history. He was calling the House for the GOP in 1994, back when every other major analyst thought the Democrats would win it. That's what counts. This year is kinda like 1994 for the Democrats only worse.

36 posted on 07/31/2010 6:21:04 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: AlexW

I have been registered as a democrat ever since Florio days in NJ (in order to vote against Florio in the primary). I never bothered to switch back to republican, just for grins (when i get called for polls I proudly say I am registered DEMOCRAT so I can skew the polls as much as possible when they apply their fudge factors).

But anyway, back to the point. I have to tell you, I get called REPEATEDLY before every election with reminders to go vote, and with sweetly worded offers for someone to come drive me to the polls. My wife, who switched back to Republican following that old primary, gets NO calls from the GOP.

Yes, before you ask, I have never, for grins, actually taken them up on their offers of a drive. Although it would be funny to tie up their resources driving me to the polls to vote AGAINST them, that’s over the top even for me. Besides, I figure if they drive up and see I’m obviously not incapacitated to need a ride, I might get a visit from a union thug the next day...


37 posted on 07/31/2010 6:50:39 AM PDT by drangundsturm
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To: txrangerette

I saw cook on a network interview just a day or two ago and he was saying a wave against dems was very possible, he mentioned nothing about it “peaking” before november. How could he possible even predict that? What data could possibly show what the wave will peak at some arbitrary time in the future? If anything the polls have been getting worse and worse for the dems as evidence for the deterioration of the economy becomes stronger and stronger. Unless charlie can predict a sudden turn in the economic data, which clearly is a major factor in the polls, I call BS.


38 posted on 07/31/2010 7:05:23 AM PDT by drangundsturm
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To: drangundsturm

I agree-he’s one of the “spin doctors” the DNC regularly employs. I bet in a week or two he’ll be telling a different story, after it becomes clear his “spin” has been fruitless.


39 posted on 07/31/2010 7:21:04 AM PDT by TexasKate
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To: txrangerette

I love those C-Span (R) callers...

I am a Republican but I have to say the Republicans are wrong and I have to support Obama on...


40 posted on 07/31/2010 8:43:04 AM PDT by nhwingut (Palin/Bachmann '12)
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To: drangundsturm

All I know is that this morning on C-Span they featured a report by him with the headline of Republican wave possibly peaking before November. Not that he was interviewed, but referencing something he just published. It said that based on information available to him and that he’s been analyzing, he thinks this might be happening.

It was obviously an astroturf report...to borrow a favorite characterization from Nancy Pelosi.

:0)


41 posted on 07/31/2010 8:46:51 AM PDT by txrangerette ("...hold to the truth; speak without fear". - Glenn Beck -)
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To: Scanian

There are 10 million Alzheimer patients in nursing homes. The Dems have perfected the art of assisting them in polling stations. They’ll do just fine.


42 posted on 07/31/2010 8:49:24 AM PDT by nhwingut (Palin/Bachmann '12)
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To: nhwingut

“The Dems have perfected the art of assisting them in polling stations.” Do you live in Delray Beach,Fl.? Is THAT guy still doing that?


43 posted on 07/31/2010 8:56:22 AM PDT by litehaus (A memory tooooo longt A)
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To: SmokingJoe
It was the House votes Barone was counting, not the Senate. He got those wrong. Because he's so familiar with national elections, people were listening to him on the House vote because he knows the districts and the reps; in some ways these votes are easier to count than elections because they're not all up for grabs. Most members announce ahead of time how they will vote.

That being said, I hope he is correct about the elections. I'm not saying he's not. He is still very capable and worthy of being listened to. My point is...he's not always correct.

44 posted on 07/31/2010 11:45:12 AM PDT by what's up
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To: what's up

Is it possible Barone actually believed that Stupidak and his cohorts were genuinely pro-life and meant it when they said either put guarantees in the language or else? Dick Morris made that error in his calculations, I know...


45 posted on 07/31/2010 11:59:38 AM PDT by txrangerette ("...hold to the truth; speak without fear". - Glenn Beck -)
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To: what's up
It was the House votes Barone was counting, not the Senate.He got those wrong.

He wasn't counting the votes for an election. It was a vote in the House. This is a general election we are talking about here. The only that counts here is his predictions on previous House elections, and on that count he is peerless. He was calling the 1994 House elections for GOP long before anyone else, when other analysts were still convinced the Democrats were going to win it.

46 posted on 07/31/2010 5:27:49 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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