NC-11: If Blue Dog Shuler Is in Trouble, the Democratic Majority Is in Trouble (poll, 45-44)

firedog lake ^ | Tuesday August 3 | Jon Walker

[saganite]

According to a new SurveyUSA poll of North Carolina’s 11th district for the Civitas Institute, Rep. Heath Shuler is effectively tied with his Republican opponent, Jeff Miller. While the district is Republican leaning, the race so far has been ranked “Likely Democratic” by the Cook Political Report. Shuler first won in 2006 and was re-elected in 2008, both times by substantial margins. If Shuler is in real danger of losing his seat, this means Democrats are in real danger of losing their majority in the House. The 11th District is the kind of seat Republicans need to win to overcome their large numeric deficit in the House.

SurveyUSA Heath Shuler 45 Jeff Miller 44 Undecided 11

For an incumbent to be effectively tied at this point is a risky place to be. While I don’t want to read too much into a single small poll taken for a conservative institute so far out from the election, this kind of race could make or break Democrats’ control of the House. Contests like this are worth keeping your eye on.

[RockinRight]

The Dem majority IS in trouble regardless of this race.

[DLfromthedesert]

My son just moved into that district last year; bought a house in the Asheville area.
I know he’s a reliable R vote

[saganite]

Yeah but it’s my district so I couldn’t resist posting the good news.

[saganite]

If you would like to help kick Shuler out of the House you can contribute at Miller’s election website.

http://jeffmiller2010.com/donate/

[dalebert]

that race is too close to call

[MillardFillmore]

This is moderately good news.

Per this analysis:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/introducing-partisan-propensity-index.html

% in last column is percentage chance of a democrat being elected if the seat was open. Ranked from 0% to 100% since Nate Silver is a liberal but also a great statistician.

Heath Shuler appears at the 50.5% level way down the chart

There are 52 more republican-leaning districs which previously elected Democrats than 2008 than NC-11. (52 blue D’s above Shuler in the chart). This chart doesn’t consider incumbency but it’s encouraging that a tougher district to flip from D to R when the incmbent remains in place is looking so close to a R takeover.

In order to gain 39, GOP needs districts like NC-11 but doesn’t require them. Nice to hae yet another district in play

[cvq3842]

Any Democrat that votes for Pelosi or a Democrat as leader of the House (which is to say, every one of them) is an enemy of conservative principles. The vote for leadership is probably the most important vote cast, in every term.

[Congressman Billybob]

I ran twice for this seat, in ‘06 and ‘08. The Dems have more registered voters than the Repubs. But half of the Dems are conservative, Zell Miller Dems. Plus, the independents who hold the balance of power, are also more conservative than liberal.

If the Repubs do a competent job of hanging Pelosi around Schuler’s neck like an albatros, and spend the right amount of money, then Schuler is toast. The article is right that Schuler is a bellwether for Demo trouble in 2010,

John . Billybob

[Paleo Conservative]

Blue Dog? A vote for Shuler is a vote for Pelosi!

[equalitybeforethelaw]

Did Shuler twist his ankle? That generally is the signal for complete career collapse. What a putz, both as politician and QB. Maybe New Orleans will trade for him?

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Maybe New Orleans will trade for him?

What are you trying to unload him on us for? We're a Superbowl winning city now. Let some other city take him.

[equalitybeforethelaw]

What are you trying to unload him on us for? We’re a Superbowl winning city now. Let some other city take him.

Because you took him last time. My guess is he would be a big improvement on your current congressman.

[des]

Did Pelosi allow Schuler to vote against health care as she did Mike Ross (AR)?

[Aegedius]

Miller’s internal polls show that among people who are familiar with the backgrounds of BOTH candidates, Miller wins comfortably. So, his task is to make sure voters know his background. I suspect that he will leave the Shuler=Pelosi stuff to the sideline flame throwers, like you and me.

[saganite]

Hi Congressman B! I haven’t run across you here in some time and I remember your campaign. You would have done a helluva lot better job than the guy who ran in ‘08. Shuler is in trouble from the left here too as I’m sure you’re aware. He only pulled about 60% (don’t remember the exact number) in the Dem primary against a no name liberal. Good to see you’re still posting.

[saganite]

Too close to call now but Shuler had a comfortable lead in the only other poll I’ve seen in the district and that was right after the Republican primary. Also, this poll is a poll of “voters” so I’m not too sure it’s completely reliable. Polls of likely voters would probably show Miller with a lead and he’s got momentum.

[Aegedius]

The story in the Asheville paper

http://www.citizen-times.com/article/20100803/NEWS/308030032

included this...

“Chris Hayes, an analyst for Civitas, said SurveyUSA polling has been found to be accurate. He said among likely voters polled, Miller was ahead by 6 percentage points.”

[saganite]

More excellent news. Thanks

[saganite]

I also saw this in that article. Miller is going to need a lot more money. Hopefully the Republican party will shift some money his way:

But Miller said national Republican Party officials who saw the poll called Monday to discuss how they might help his campaign.

That will take money, an area where Shuler enjoys a distinct advantage. He had $1.4 million in his campaign account as of July 1, according to the most recent filings with the Federal Election Commission. Miller had $65,036.