Skip to comments.Cracks in the Iranian Monolith--Opposition is spreading in the streets, prisons, and the military.
Posted on 08/23/2010 8:34:14 PM PDT by Ooh-Ah
The Iranian regime loves to boast of its military strength, international clout and hold on domestic power. Much of this is accepted by outside experts, but in fact the regime is in trouble. Iran's leaders have lost legitimacy in the eyes of the people, are unable to manage the country's many problems, face a growing opposition, ....
A few weeks ago, according to official and private reports, the Iranian air force shot down three drones near the southwestern city of Bushehr, where a Russian-supplied nuclear reactor has just started up. When the Revolutionary Guards inspected the debris, they expected to find proof of high-altitude spying. Instead, the Guards had to report to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that the air force had blasted Iran's own unmanned aircraft out of the sky.
That opposition is fed by enduring social and economic crises. Unemployment last month reached 15% and is as high as 45% in some regions. In Tehran, health officials warned pregnant women and mothers of young children not to drink the water. Electrical failures are widespread. Taxi drivers have been striking around the country this summer, some because of the long lines at gas stations and others because of a shortage of compressed natural gas. The sanctions seem to be having an effect.
Challenges to the regime now come even from prisoners. When Mr. Ahmadinejad challenged Barack Obama to a debate this month, a Green Movement website reported with grim admiration that five journalists in Tehran's infamous Evin Prison had invited Mr. Ahmadinejad to come to jail and debate them.
Very little of this news reaches a mass Western audience, and one wonders to what extent Western governments understand what's going on. If they do, their failure to support the democratic revolutionaries is all the more lamentable.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
It’s true the Lord works in mysterious ways... but we’ve heard predictions of Iranian populists overthrowing the mullahcracy for SO long, and it just never seems to jell...
“Unemployment last month reached 15%.”
Sounds a lot better than California, Nevada and Michigan. I like Michael Leden but he has been saying this since we invaded Iraq. THe Iran leadership has the country totally controlled in the same way the TV networks in America control the drooling masses for liberals and Islam.
Kudos to the Iranian Air Force... and a big HaHa! to the Iranian Air Force.
Yep. IIRC, it has been nearly 9 years of these stories.
Sure . . . a report here and there of this kind, then of "willingness to talk" on nukes, the usual blather. Ahmadinejad's usual talk is the only indication of their true agenda, especially relating to "hasten(ing) the return of the Mahdi". Iran won't re-revolutionize back to a peaceful country; it'll have to be done from the outside, and this time with people that are actually committed to achieving peace by destroying such warmongers as these and others.
IIRC, it has been nearly 9 years of these stories
**Forever mired in islam Alert**
This is “wishful thinking”. Trying to take the heat off of the headmuzzi in WH.
Once Iran gets the bomb, there will be little to no hope for anyone wishing to overthrow the mullahs and their crazy president.
Is this a reprint from 5 years ago or 15 years ago?
>>>>”one wonders to what extent Western governments understand what’s going on.”
I’d say Western govts understand far more than less.
However, the foundation has to be set in Iran. And, the Will for change has to be initiated from within Iran & by Iranians abroad alike, and then supported by W. govts, imo.
It seems there is not a firm consensus among (esp. politically active) Iranian population as yet, whether the Islamic govt should reform itself or be replaced in its entirety, along with its largely Islamic constitution & mandate.
It also seems that Western govts simply accept/accepted that an Islamic govt in Iran is what many Iranians want. So, at best, W. govts support “reform” of Islamic govt, as a viable alternative. Imo, it is a false alternative. Iran needs a “Regime Change”.
The other crippling issue is lack of strong & secular *leadership*.
Apart from airy fairy jibes & speeches of a few prominent Iranian (leaders) about a need for a secular govt in Iran, most of these people are either unwilling and/or unable to put the proverbial money where their mouth is.
So, the remaining so-called *leaders* continue to be drawn from different factions of the same Islamic Regime/govt in Iran. Hence, business as usual will continue..
The Green Movement begged for just a nod from Obama, this was before Iran had a nuke, which is a game changer. The Green Movement correctly sees their future as living in squalor behind the outward threat of their own glorious nuke for the next generation or two. I’d imagine that thought is emboldening -for them.
In case you haven’t read already!
Amid a deepening split within the Islamic system's “principlist” conservative faction, the combative president has begun stressing nationalistic Iranian themes in what some observers characterize as an attempt to carve out a new political constituency amongst nonpolitical types who neither identify with religion nor the pro-reform Green Movement.
I know what you mean.
Just last week, pro-Ahmadinejad lawmakers asked the justice authority to investigate remarks by two leading conservative members of parliament from the so-called pro-justice faction headed by Ahmad Tavakkoli. The deputies reportedly sharply criticized Ahmadinejad and his supporters for “distancing themselves from the clerics” and acting like “a terrorist group.”
Thanks Admsmith for the links.
Just wanna say that “religious-nationalism” is not a “new” concept in Iran (pre & post Islamic regime) by any means.
The 3 pillars of consequence for Iran, for a long time, are/have been: Monarchy, Religion & Trade/Business (Merchants i.e. Bazzaris).
The ‘Supreme Leader’ position of IRI today took over from an absolute ‘Monarch’ of yesterday, in a sense, while promoting an air of democracy & peoples’ participation in the political process. The intentions & in comparison were, however, distinct & different.
Actually, during latter yrs when Khomeini was still alive, and thereafter during Rafsanjani & Khatami, “religious-nationalism” was often injected into Iranian society (whether mostly Islamic, Shia Islam, and/or a hybrid of Zoroastrianism & Islam).
Because, in Iran, Islam or Shia Islam on its own simply can not survive.
See some links & some comments on Islam & preceding religions, from one perspective:
As a summary, my assessment is/has been that whenever, specifically in last 31 yrs, IRI sees a threat of a *secular* revolt in Iran, it falls back on further reinforcing Islam (esp. Shia Islam), AND, combines it with Iranian long ingrained pride in nationalism - nothing new.
IRI continues in the tradition of initial Muslim-Arab invaders of Iran, later those of Safavids (15 to 17 century), who forced their version of Shia Islam on Iran & made it the official State religion, and now we have IRI, who Perfectly knows how to deal with Iranian tradition & religious psyche.
IRI, thru history, knows how to combine religion with Iranian non-religious nationalism. They do it by force, or thru some type of pressure. Examples can be numerous. It is very clever & goes to show they aren’t as stupid as many in the West would like to portray them.
I do wish that we didn’t So Much focus on Ahmadi-Nejad alone. He is only a small portion of the Overall Iranian problem.
But, the more we focus on Ahmadi-Nejad, the more IRI is able to distract us from the Real issue, which is the IRI regime itself & in its entirety, incl. its *other leaders & reformists*. That’s what IRI wants, imo.