Skip to comments.Dangus' Latest Polling Round-up (Senate)
Posted on 08/24/2010 11:13:21 AM PDT by dangus
Republicans are holding all six of their open seats:
Florida: Rubio-R, 40; Crist-I 32; Meek-D, 17 (PPP, 8/18)
Kentucky: Paul-R, 51; Conway -D, 41 (Rasmussen, 8/17)
Missouri: Blunt-R, 54; Carnahan-D, 41 (Rasmussen, 8/23)
New Hampshire: Ayotte-R, 51; Hodes-D, 38 (Rasmussen, 8/5)
Ohio: Portman-R, 48; Fisher-D, 39 (Rasmussen, 8/16)
In addition, they are leading in ten Democrat-held seats:
Arkansas: Boozman-R, 65; Lincoln-D, 27 (Rasmussen, 8/18)
California: Fiorina-R, 47; Boxer-D, 42 (SurveyUSA, 8/11)
Colorado: Buck-R, 46, Bennet-D, 41 (Rasmussen, 8/11)
Delaware: Castle-"R", 48; Coons-D, 35 (PPP, 8/8)
Indiana: Coats-R, 50; Ellsworth-D, 29 (Rasmussen, 8/7
) Nevada: Angle-R, 48 or 50*; Reid-D, 48 (Rasmussen, 8/16)
North Dakota: Hoeven-R, 69; Potter-D, 25 (Rasmussen, 8/11)
Pennsylvania: Toomey-R, 48; Sestak-D, 40 (Rasmussen, 8/16)
Washington: Rossi-R, 52; Murray-D, 45 (SurveyUSA, 8/19)
Wisconsin: Johnson-R, 47; Feingold-D, 46 (Rasmussen, 8/10)
(*Rasmussen's web site reports 48, Real Clear Politics reports 50; my guess is that the 50 includes leaners.)
Three more seats may be potentially competitive:
Illinois: Giannoulias-D, 37; Kirk-"R", 35 (PPP, 8/15)
Oregon: Wyden-D, 53; Hoffman-R, 35 (SurveyUSA, 7/27)
West Virginia: Manchin-D, 51; Raese-R, 35 (Rasmussen, 7/22)
I'd also predict that if the Republicans win the Senate, Sen Joe Lieberman (Independent Democrat) would caucus with Republicans, giving 52 seats, with potential reach 55.)
All poll results shown are the latest independent polls available. PPP refers to Public Policy Polling. If the primary has not taken place, the candidates who perform best in the primary polls are shown. This does not imply endorsement. ALMOST ALL OF THESE RACES ARE COMPETITIVE. Optimism is no excuse for complacency. Turnout and last-minute messaging could be the difference between having 44 Republicans in the Senate, and having 55!
The GOP has a shot in CT too.
Note: In Delaware there is a choice:
So, let’s get Hoffman and Raese up. Need 10 to flip the senate.
Oh, stupid, stupid, stupid me! I thought I had three races that could see a GOP surge, “No, you must have been counting Illinois.”
Is Kirk (IL) the one who 0bama beat after they smeared him with some sex or divorce scandal?
Connecticut: Blumenthal-D, 50; McMahon-R, 43.
Ya, if we can’t find 51 people ready for sainthood, let’s let the Demon-crats stay in power......
VERY well said, dangus.
Would you consider putting together a ping list IF you're going to put this up on a regular basis? If you just had some extra time to kill today, no worries, and thanks for the great work!
No, you’re sorta thinking about Jack Ryan. The Democrats leaked his confidential divorce filings revealing that he used to take his wife, Seven of Nine, to strip clubs. Ryan, however, withdrew. Former Republican presidential candidate Alan Keyes ran, but the once great thinker ran on a platform of slavery restitution, and was soundly beat. Ryan became a naval submarine hero, was appointed Secretary of Treasure, and became President after terrorists flew a plane into the State of the Union address. Oh, wait, that wasn’t THAT Jack Ryan. But bizarrely, it *was* THAT Seven of Nine.
>> Ya, if we cant find 51 people ready for sainthood, <<
That’s a pretty lame straw man. I’ve got no problem electing David Vitter over a Democrat. But electing Kirk would mean we’d be LESS likely to pass a Republican agenda, not MORE likely. Calling a communist a Republican doesn’t make him vote any more conservative. It just means Republicans take the blame for the failures.
Don’t whine to me about Kirk, unless you’ve got a non-Democrat alternative in IL.
The don’t write to me, period. I’m not interested in ‘bots.
No way does Lieberman caucus with the Republicans. And while I share your feelings on Kirk and Castle, the only viable choices in these races are the RINO or a Marxist Democrat. A RINO, at least, understands that a viable and healthy private sector economy is necessary to generate the needed taxes for the Nanny State.
Just like a big-government liberal, trying to tell others what they can and can’t post. I’m not interested in your battered-wife syndrome.
>> A RINO, at least, understands that a viable and healthy private sector economy is necessary to generate the needed taxes for the Nanny State. <<
I agree. But we’re not dealing with mere RINOs. We are dealing with the two most liberal Republicans ever to serve in Washington, both of whom are well to the LEFT of most Democrats.
Kirk is definiately better than the alternative and to think otherwise is simply wrongheaded.
Yes he’s a social liberal he’s pro-abortion asshat but G is worse. He is far more the fiscal conservative of the two. I’ll hold my nose and vote for him because I have no viable options.
Then you don’t like what Mark Levin said either. He said the same thing about Kirk and Castle. And I don’t think Mark Levin is a defeatist or a martyr. He’s fighting every day to help save this country.
By all means, support the conservative in the primary. But if the RINO wins anyway, don’t help elect the Marxist RAT like Didier appears to be poised to do in the State of Washington,
Mark has a show to sell, I don’t.
Castle did himself a lot of harm last night. He was a no-show at a town hall Q & A. Seems like coffee and cookies at the other end of the state was more important. Judging by crowd reaction, it cost him some votes.
Christine O’Donnell, while frustrated at Castle’s bad manners, rose above it and comported herself quite well.
I live a couple hours away from Delaware. Far enough where I’m not in any loops about how to support Christine, but close enough where my participation in phone banks, canvassing, etc. may be plausible. If you could post some way for conservative activists to get involved, that’d be wonderful.
How can you consider West Virginia and Oregon potential wins? Over 50 for the winner and in the 30’s for the loser today? I guess they could turn this around but it seems quite a task especially West Virginia would could not have chosen a more beloved politician.
Comrade Obambam, then a somewhat obscure state senator, came seemingly out of nowhere to defeat the favored Demonrat candidate (Blair Hull?) whose primary qualifications were reliably leftist views and a gigantic personal fortune. Unfortunately for Hull and America, Hull had been twice divorced from the same woman and in each case there had been scurrilous allegations of personal brutality used by the wife in the divorce proceedings. Although the divorce records were ordered sealed by the trial court, somehow they were stolen, copied and revealed in time for Obambam to successfully destroy his primary opponent as a wife beater. On to the general election against Jack Ryan.
GOP conservatives exulted in the nomination of Jack Ryan, seemingly the perfect candidate, a Catholic conservative with plenty of money to self-finance a successful campaign. BUT, surprise, surprise, Jack Ryan had a divorce from Jeri (aka SevenofNine) in his background and there were allegations in that matter of his taking her not to a mere strip club but to a sex club where participants would engage in sexual acts of wide variety for the entertainment of the club members. Apparently Mrs. Ryan decided to forego that experience in exhibitionism and in voyeurism as well. BUT the records had been ordered sealed by the trial court. No problemo! Somehow, by sheer coincidence, no doubt (wink, wink!), those sealed divorce records were stolen, copied and revealed in time to force Jack Ryan out of the race and, apparently, out of public life. That taught him to try and derail the destiny of Bill Ayres' comrade.
Then Alan Keyes was nominated as the replacement candidate. Now, I generally agree with Alan Keyes without believing in slavery "reparations." OTOH, I have never witnessed in nearly 5 decades of political interest such an appallingly terrible conservative candidate for public office. He spent the entire campaign running around yelling and screaming at Comrade Obambam, at press and media, and at the voters until Keyes was buried on election day by a margin of about 3 to 1. The rest, as they say (possibly including our country) is history.
In West Virginia, the Democrat candidate is a sitting governor who’s become very popular by bucking local Democrat orgs. But he immediately leapt in the lap of Obama and the K street crowd by supporting the lawsuit against Arizona. Obama is hated by West Virginians. If Raes plays that right, he can rip a giant, gushing wound into Manchin’s approval ratings, and can do in the general election exactly what Rubio did in the GOP primary.
The Dems will have filibuster power even if they lose control but they lose the ability to control the debate if they can't run the chamber. At this point, Gridlock is all we can hope for until 2013.
I supported J.D. over that a-hole McLame in AZ, but the fact is there are times when numbers matter.
yeah, whats up w Didier?
There’s still a primary in Delaware, so we aren’t stuck with Castle.
Too late for Illinois. Kirk is the Republican. And no conservative is going to win a 3rd-party race there.
Plus there wouldn’t be a point. Why let him caucus with us if we don’t need him — it would just cost us majority seats on some committees he’d want to be a part of.
The only way he’d be any use is to break a 50-50 tie that would otherwise be broken by Biden. But if that happened, he wouldn’t caucus with us.
I thought that guy was named Kelly.
HillBuzzBoys say Kirk would like boyztown, though, and that might be an October surprise...
Sorry. Picked the wrong Irish surname. Ryan not Kelly.
>> HillBuzzBoys say Kirk would like boyztown, though, and that might be an October surprise... <<
Gee, if they could do it a little before October, maybe we could pull a Lautenberg and get a Republican on the ballot.
For the record: “Amiable” divorce, no kids. Consistent with, but not evidence of, “I just can’t live this lie anymore.”
100% Feminazi record from Planned Non-Parenthood; 23% record from Concerned Women of America. 0% record from Gunowners of America. Career C+ from NumbersUSA (immigration reduction group).
“Gee, if they could do it a little before October, maybe we could pull a Lautenberg and get a Republican on the ballot.”
That would be nice. Is it too late for an Independent to go on the ballot? I know sometimes folks don’t think an R candidate is conservative enough. If it’s a blue state, they won’t be a Jim DeMint, but this Kirk guy [with the record you posted, thanks] really might as well be a ‘D’. Just as bad as Scuzzyfavabean in NY23.