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103 Democrat Seats in Play - Club for Growth
Club for Growth ^ | 8/17/10 | David Keating

Posted on 08/26/2010 8:07:49 AM PDT by Haiku Guy

I've never seen so many House seats in play in one party. I'm tracking four of the pundits who rate House races -- Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato and CQ.

Between the four an incredible 103 Democratic seats are in play. I think they have missed maybe 3 to 5 seats, but they may list them sooner or later.

24 seats are very slightly to strongly leaning Republican.

16 are pure toss ups to very slightly tilting Democratic.

25 are leaning Democratic

That means an incredible 65 seats are very seriously in play.

Another 38 seats are rated likely Democratic but at least one of the four, and two thirds of the cases two or more of the pundits.

Here is the list of the seats most likely to switch, based on the pundit average. In the event of a tie, my computer rating of the seat breaks the tie.

Rank 2010 Incumbent District GOP Candidate
1 Gordon TN6 Dianne Black
2 Melancon LA3 TBD
3 Snyder AR2 Tim Griffin
4 Massa NY29 Tom Reed (likely)
5 Kratovil MD1 TBD
6 Kilroy OH15 Steve Stivers
7 Teague NM2 Steve Pearce
8 Driehaus OH1 Steve Chabot
9 Moore, D. KS3 Kevin Yoder
10 Ellsworth IN8 Larry Bucshon
11 Markey CO4 Cory Gardner
12 Shea-Porter NH1 TBD
13 Hodes NH2 TBD
14 Pomeroy NDAL Richard Berg
15 Tanner TN8 Stephen Fincher
16 Kosmas FL24 TBD
17 Childers MS1 Alan Nunnelee
18 Titus NV3 Joe Heck
19 Perriello VA5 Robert Hurt
20 Nye VA2 Scott Rigell
21 Grayson FL8 TBD
22 Stupak MI1 Dan Benishek
23 Arcuri NY24 Richard Hanna
24 Kanjorski PA11 Lou Barletta
25 Mollohan WV1 David McKinley
26 Schauer MI7 Tim Walberg
27 Baird WA3 TBD
28 Sestak PA7 Pat Meehan
29 Foster IL14 Randy Hultgren
30 Edwards, C. TX17 Bill Flores
31 Berry AR1 Rick Crawford
32 Bright AL2 Martha Roby
33 Hill IN9 Todd Young
34 Minnick ID1 Raul Labrador
35 Spratt SC5 Mick Mulvaney
36 Dahlkemper PA3 Mike Kelly
37 Obey WI7 Sean Duffy (likely)
38 Kissell NC8 Harold Johnson
39 Herseth Sandlin SDAL Kristi Noem
40 Boyd FL2 TBD
41 Kirkpatrick AZ1 TBD
42 Boccieri OH16 Jim Renacci
43 Giffords AZ8 TBD
44 Halvorson IL11 Adam Kinzinger
45 McNerney CA11 David Harmer
46 Hall, J. NY19 Nan Hayworth (likely)
47 Adler NJ3 Jon Runyon
48 Murphy, P. PA8 Michael Fitzpatrick
49 Boucher VA9 Morgan Griffith
50 Space OH18 Bob Gibbs
51 Donnelly IN2 Jackie Walorski Swihart
52 Mitchell AZ5 TBD
53 Heinrich NM1 Johnathan L. Barela
54 Boswell IA3 Brad Zaun
55 Owens NY23 TBD
56 Bishop NY1 TBD
57 Critz PA12 Tim Burns
58 Delahunt MA10 TBD
59 Skelton MO4 Vicky Hartzler
60 Carney PA10 Thomas Marino
61 Connolly VA11 Keith Fimian
62 Kagen WI8 TBD
63 Salazar CO3 Scott Tipton
64 Murphy NY20 Chris Gibson
65 Sutton OH13 Tom Ganley
66 Marshall GA8 Austin Scott
67 Chandler KY6 Andy Barr
68 McMahon NY13 TBD
69 Schrader OR5 Scott Bruun
70 Klein FL22 Allen West (likely)
71 Rodriguez, C. TX23 Quico Canseco
72 Peters MI9 Rocky Raczkowski
73 Shuler NC11 Jeff Miller
74 Holden PA17 Dave Argall
75 Altmire PA4 Keith Rothfus
76 Murphy, C. CT5 Sam Caliguri
77 Kind WI3 TBD
78 Pallone Jr. NJ6 Anna Little
79 Davis, L. TN4 Scott DesJarlais
80 Himes CT4 Dan Debicella
81 Walz MN1 Randy Demmer
82 Maffei NY25 Ann Marie Buerkle
83 Sanchez, Loretta CA47 Van Tran
84 Rahall WV3 Elliot "Spike" Maynard
85 Bean IL8 Joe Walsh
86 Etheridge NC2 Renee Ellmers
87 Cardoza CA18 Michael Berryhill
88 Yarmuth KY3 Todd Lally
89 Larsen WA2 John Koster
90 Loebsack IA2 Marianette Miller-Meeks
91 Barrow GA12 Ray McKinney
92 Matheson UT2 Morgan Philpot
93 Ross AR4 Beth Anne Rankin
94 McIntyre NC7 Ilario Pantano
95 Wilson, C. OH6 Bill Johnson
96 Bishop, S. GA2 Mike Keown
97 Perlmutter CO7 Ryan Frazier
98 Hare IL17 Bobby Schilling
99 Costa CA20 Andy Vidak
100 Braley IA1 Benjamin Lange
101 Holt NJ12 Scott Sipprelle 102 Wu OR1 Rob Cornilles
103 Carnahan MO3 Ed Martin


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: little; pallone
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-57 next last
I realize the table comes out FUBARed. Sorry about that.

Click through to see nice neat columns...

Happy to see my local congresscritter is #78 on this list.

1 posted on 08/26/2010 8:07:52 AM PDT by Haiku Guy
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To: Haiku Guy
Happy to see my local congresscritter is #78 on this list.

Ditto that!

2 posted on 08/26/2010 8:09:42 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: Haiku Guy
I realize the table comes out FUBARed. Sorry about that.

Right click, "View Selection Source", copy, paste.

____________________________________________________________

Here is the list of the seats most likely to switch, based on the pundit average.  In the event of a tie, my computer rating of the seat breaks the tie.

Rank 2010 Incumbent District GOP Candidate
1 Gordon TN6 Dianne Black
2 Melancon LA3 TBD
3 Snyder AR2 Tim Griffin
4 Massa NY29 Tom Reed (likely)
5 Kratovil MD1 TBD
6 Kilroy OH15 Steve Stivers
7 Teague NM2 Steve Pearce
8 Driehaus OH1 Steve Chabot
9 Moore, D. KS3 Kevin Yoder
10 Ellsworth IN8 Larry Bucshon
11 Markey CO4 Cory Gardner
12 Shea-Porter NH1 TBD
13 Hodes NH2 TBD
14 Pomeroy NDAL Richard Berg
15 Tanner TN8 Stephen Fincher
16 Kosmas FL24 TBD
17 Childers MS1 Alan Nunnelee
18 Titus NV3 Joe Heck
19 Perriello VA5 Robert Hurt
20 Nye VA2 Scott Rigell
21 Grayson FL8 TBD
22 Stupak MI1 Dan Benishek
23 Arcuri NY24 Richard Hanna
24 Kanjorski PA11 Lou Barletta
25 Mollohan WV1 David McKinley
26 Schauer MI7 Tim Walberg
27 Baird WA3 TBD
28 Sestak PA7 Pat Meehan
29 Foster IL14 Randy Hultgren
30 Edwards, C. TX17 Bill Flores
31 Berry AR1 Rick Crawford
32 Bright AL2 Martha Roby
33 Hill IN9 Todd Young
34 Minnick ID1 Raul Labrador
35 Spratt SC5 Mick Mulvaney
36 Dahlkemper PA3 Mike Kelly
37 Obey WI7 Sean Duffy (likely)
38 Kissell NC8 Harold Johnson
39 Herseth Sandlin SDAL Kristi Noem
40 Boyd FL2 TBD
41 Kirkpatrick AZ1 TBD
42 Boccieri OH16 Jim Renacci
43 Giffords AZ8 TBD
44 Halvorson IL11 Adam Kinzinger
45 McNerney CA11 David Harmer
46 Hall, J. NY19 Nan Hayworth (likely)
47 Adler NJ3 Jon Runyon
48 Murphy, P. PA8 Michael Fitzpatrick
49 Boucher VA9 Morgan Griffith
50 Space OH18 Bob Gibbs
51 Donnelly IN2 Jackie Walorski Swihart
52 Mitchell AZ5 TBD
53 Heinrich NM1 Johnathan L. Barela
54 Boswell IA3 Brad Zaun
55 Owens NY23 TBD
56 Bishop NY1 TBD
57 Critz PA12 Tim Burns
58 Delahunt MA10 TBD
59 Skelton MO4 Vicky Hartzler
60 Carney PA10 Thomas Marino
61 Connolly VA11 Keith Fimian
62 Kagen WI8 TBD
63 Salazar CO3 Scott Tipton
64 Murphy NY20 Chris Gibson
65 Sutton OH13 Tom Ganley
66 Marshall GA8 Austin Scott
67 Chandler KY6 Andy Barr
68 McMahon NY13 TBD
69 Schrader OR5 Scott Bruun
70 Klein FL22 Allen West (likely)
71 Rodriguez, C. TX23 Quico Canseco
72 Peters MI9 Rocky Raczkowski
73 Shuler NC11 Jeff Miller
74 Holden PA17 Dave Argall
75 Altmire PA4 Keith Rothfus
76 Murphy, C. CT5 Sam Caliguri
77 Kind WI3 TBD
78 Pallone Jr. NJ6 Anna Little
79 Davis, L. TN4 Scott DesJarlais
80 Himes CT4 Dan Debicella
81 Walz MN1 Randy Demmer
82 Maffei NY25 Ann Marie Buerkle
83 Sanchez, Loretta CA47 Van Tran
84 Rahall WV3 Elliot "Spike" Maynard
85 Bean IL8 Joe Walsh
86 Etheridge NC2 Renee Ellmers
87 Cardoza CA18 Michael Berryhill
88 Yarmuth KY3 Todd Lally
89 Larsen WA2 John Koster
90 Loebsack IA2 Marianette Miller-Meeks
91 Barrow GA12 Ray McKinney
92 Matheson UT2 Morgan Philpot
93 Ross AR4 Beth Anne Rankin
94 McIntyre NC7 Ilario Pantano
95 Wilson, C. OH6 Bill Johnson
96 Bishop, S. GA2 Mike Keown
97 Perlmutter CO7 Ryan Frazier
98 Hare IL17 Bobby Schilling
99 Costa CA20 Andy Vidak
100 Braley IA1 Benjamin Lange
101 Holt NJ12 Scott Sipprelle
102 Wu OR1 Rob Cornilles
103 Carnahan MO3 Ed Martin
Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=13914
3 posted on 08/26/2010 8:12:51 AM PDT by Plutarch
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To: Haiku Guy
This is a good list to keep handy.
The pundits all laughed when Boehner said Republicans would take 100 seats.
Their laughter has turned to tears.

I'm just hoping that Mike Pence will be Speaker of the House.
 
4 posted on 08/26/2010 8:23:06 AM PDT by counterpunch (Imam B'araq Hussein Mohammad 0bama, President of the 57 States of Islam.)
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To: Haiku Guy

WE ARE COMING FOR YOU CONGRESS.


5 posted on 08/26/2010 8:25:07 AM PDT by Freddd (CNN is down to Three Hundred Thousand viewers. But they worked for it.)
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To: Freddd

Oh Nancy! You got so ‘splainin’ to do!


6 posted on 08/26/2010 8:26:51 AM PDT by Haiku Guy (You can force me to recycle, but I will NOT sing the song!)
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To: Freddd

Oh Nancy! You got so ‘splainin’ to do!


7 posted on 08/26/2010 8:27:00 AM PDT by Haiku Guy (You can force me to recycle, but I will NOT sing the song!)
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To: Plutarch

Mine is #17. Got to make Cousin Travis a blip from the past!


8 posted on 08/26/2010 8:27:06 AM PDT by Sybeck1
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To: Haiku Guy

Incumbent Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D-SD) is down some 10 points to political newcomer Kristi Noem. Herseth-Sandlin who has not actually lived in SD for years, is running TV ads featuring her two year old kid, being a Mom and living in what would be a typical SD home. It’s all a sham, she doesn’t actually live in this state and that SD “home” I’m betting isn’t hers either as her husband works for a Washington, DC lobbying group and certainly is commuting from SD.


9 posted on 08/26/2010 8:27:58 AM PDT by The Great RJ (The Bill of Rights: Another bill members of Congress haven't read.)
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To: Plutarch

Thank you, thank you, thank you!


10 posted on 08/26/2010 8:27:59 AM PDT by Haiku Guy (You can force me to recycle, but I will NOT sing the song!)
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To: Plutarch

I see they are neatly arranged in numerical order.

I wonder if anyone thought to arrange them by state? Naw, that would be to easy to find your own gy.


11 posted on 08/26/2010 8:32:18 AM PDT by Balding_Eagle (Overproduction, one of the top five business worries of the Amercan Farmer for the past 50 years)
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To: Sybeck1

Mine is “48 Murphy, P. PA8”.

I own you Murphy. Your going down.


12 posted on 08/26/2010 8:38:42 AM PDT by PA-RIVER
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To: Haiku Guy

Remember #71 that nasty Democrat Ciro Rodriguez should be replaced.

Here he is getting all angry at a town hall. (I love YouTube!)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jENE5Nh6qIs


13 posted on 08/26/2010 8:39:57 AM PDT by King_Corey (www.kingcorey.com)
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To: Haiku Guy

I nominate the “Kennedy seat” (open) in RI for #104.


14 posted on 08/26/2010 8:44:25 AM PDT by campaignPete R-CT ("pray without ceasing" - Paul of Tarsus)
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To: Haiku Guy

Throw out all the traitors that voted for the vile HealthCare Bill!

Toss out any knucklehead that thinks the Cap n’ Trade tax is a good idea.


15 posted on 08/26/2010 8:44:51 AM PDT by PATRIOT1876 (Language, Borders, Culture, Full employment for those here legally)
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To: Balding_Eagle

just do a ctl+f and type in your two letter state. Repeat until all are found


16 posted on 08/26/2010 8:46:08 AM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: Sybeck1

number 26 (Golden) Schauer is goin down.


17 posted on 08/26/2010 8:50:15 AM PDT by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin! (look it up))
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To: Plutarch
I'm from Missouri and if Carnahan looses(he is in a supposedly safe demo district) it will be a democrat wipeout.

Also I heard somewhere and I can't remember where that John Dingle was in trouble in Michigan.

This is all well and good,But it is over 2 Months till the election. We have to stay focused and keep working like we are 10 points down.

18 posted on 08/26/2010 8:50:23 AM PDT by painter (No wonder democrats don't mind taxes.THEY DON'T PAY THEM !)
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To: Balding_Eagle
I wonder if anyone thought to arrange them by state? Naw, that would be to easy to find your own gy.

In Windows, just hit < CTRL> F and enter the candidate's name in the search box.

19 posted on 08/26/2010 8:52:36 AM PDT by Haiku Guy (You can force me to recycle, but I will NOT sing the song!)
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To: painter
We have to stay focused and keep working like we are 10 points down.

I prefer the no-stone-left-on-stone approach. If a single Donk is left, that's one Donk too many...

20 posted on 08/26/2010 8:54:51 AM PDT by Haiku Guy (You can force me to recycle, but I will NOT sing the song!)
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To: Haiku Guy

LET’S TAKE ALL 103 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

and a few more !


21 posted on 08/26/2010 8:57:13 AM PDT by DontTreadOnMe2009 (So stop treading on me already!)
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To: Haiku Guy
Gary Peters (more appropriately named “DICK”) is #72 on the list. This closet commie MUST go. I've met his rival Raczkowski twice. Former military, conservative, traditional Christian values. Michigan District #9.

Peters voted for Obozo's healthcrap...inexcusable.

22 posted on 08/26/2010 9:01:02 AM PDT by Mich Patriot (There's a communist muslim living in the White House. We need to fumigate the place!)
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To: cripplecreek
(Remember the River Raisin! (look it up))

I looked it up. It's amazing the things you don't know. I lived in Michigan for a few years, and never heard of this. Fascinating.

23 posted on 08/26/2010 9:01:09 AM PDT by Haiku Guy (You can force me to recycle, but I will NOT sing the song!)
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To: PATRIOT1876
"Throw out all the traitors that voted for the vile HealthCare Bill!"

Exactly...we will NEVER FORGET the healthcare idiots & traitors to the constitution. I still have my list of the 'yes' voters handy.

24 posted on 08/26/2010 9:04:16 AM PDT by Mich Patriot (There's a communist muslim living in the White House. We need to fumigate the place!)
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To: Haiku Guy

Great compilation. Thank you. The election results this year could be seismic (fingers crossed).


25 posted on 08/26/2010 9:06:34 AM PDT by Lando Lincoln (Reconciliation takes place in November.)
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To: Haiku Guy; 2A Patriot; 2nd amendment mama; 4everontheRight; 77Jimmy; A Strict Constructionist; ...
South Carolina
Ping

Send FReepmail to join or leave this list.

Check out #35. Bye bye Jack.

26 posted on 08/26/2010 9:21:53 AM PDT by upchuck (The Mosque at Ground Zero (sorry AP) is about SUBMISSION, not tolerance.)
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To: counterpunch
The pundits all laughed when Boehner said Republicans would take 100 seats.
Their laughter has turned to tears.


I don't think we will get 100. However, with 103 in play the Democrats can't concentrate their money in a hand full of vulnerable races. They will be forced to fight all over the country. The more races in play the better our chances to take a significant portion of them.

We have to be careful about the expectations game that the Democrats are playing. If victory is defined as a 100 seat turn around the Dems will drop 99 seats and claim they still have a mandate for Obama to rule through executive order. Winning the war in a day is always nice, but we must concentrate on winning the battle of 2010. We need 41 to take back the house. We can lose over 60 of the above races and still take the gavel away from Pelosi. That must be the goal that matters most at the moment. Sure an electoral Tsunami would be great. But all we actually need is to flush that San Francisco turd.
27 posted on 08/26/2010 9:33:04 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: InterceptPoint

FYI


28 posted on 08/26/2010 9:45:27 AM PDT by ken5050 (Save the Earth..It's the only planet with chocolate!!!)
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To: GonzoGOP

Re the two or three Dems who are actually running ads attacking Pelosi....including one who fantasized about her dying.....we need to ask them ON CAMERA if they will vote for her for Speaker..


29 posted on 08/26/2010 9:47:12 AM PDT by ken5050 (Save the Earth..It's the only planet with chocolate!!!)
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To: ken5050

CAUTION - ONLY 24 ARE LEANING REPUBLICAN AND WE NEED 39. NO WONDER PELOSI AND BIDEN AREN'T WORRIED. THEY CAN STEEL ENOUGH VOTES AND ACORN THEIR WAY TO HOLDING ALL THE OTHER SEATS BUT THE 24.


30 posted on 08/26/2010 10:21:17 AM PDT by RED SOUTH
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To: Haiku Guy
Does anyone get that this is pysch-ops? 103 gives the GOP a super majority in the house. They must have emperical data that is is possible, and to also get them running scared...
31 posted on 08/26/2010 10:24:02 AM PDT by taildragger ((Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
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To: RED SOUTH

STEEL ?????


32 posted on 08/26/2010 10:24:08 AM PDT by Balding_Eagle (Overproduction, one of the top five business worries of the Amercan Farmer for the past 50 years)
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To: ken5050

Yep. That is the question for each and every one of these Democrats that is running scared... Are you going to vote with the Democrats on organization? Are you going to vote for San Fran Nan for Speaker?


33 posted on 08/26/2010 10:30:16 AM PDT by Haiku Guy (You can force me to recycle, but I will NOT sing the song!)
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To: Balding_Eagle
Because Wisconsin does not have their primaries until next month, I have yet to see any polls for my district. The 8th is currently held by Steve Kagan, but for years (prior to 2006) is was a Republican leaning seat. There are something like 8 people competing to run for the GOP.

There is a press release today from the Reid Ribble campaign that says that a poll has come out that gives him a 10 point lead (if he wins the nomination) over Kagan. So if that is credible I think that the WI 8th district will be back in GOP hands.

34 posted on 08/26/2010 10:34:33 AM PDT by codercpc
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To: codercpc

I was commenting on the spelling of steal.


35 posted on 08/26/2010 10:37:01 AM PDT by Balding_Eagle (Overproduction, one of the top five business worries of the Amercan Farmer for the past 50 years)
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To: Plutarch

100+ seats for Republicans is freaking dreaming. SC05 — John Spratt’s seat ain’t happening. I imagine the Club For Growth is similarly overly optimistic on at least 2/3rd’s of these seats.

While the electorate is very dissatisfied with Obama and the Democrats, they STILL don’t trust Republicans (with good reason) and most of the Republicans have given them NO good, POSITIVE reasons to vote FOR them this November. They are just hoping that they are the only alternative and that the Democrats destroying themselves is “enough.”

WHAT, pray tell, are the Republicans OFFERING? Where is their CONSERVATIVE agenda?! Where is “Reaganism?” Or a new “Contract with America?” Where’s the evidence that their Conservative convictions will last more than 100 days, and they won’t just become “Democrats lite?”

Republicans may pick up 30-38 seats in the house and 6-7 in the Senate — but they won’t get Congress back. But it’s nice to dream Club for Growth....


36 posted on 08/26/2010 10:38:59 AM PDT by patriot preacher
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To: Haiku Guy

I can’t wait to see the detestable coward Patrick “Lapdog” Murphy go down (#48). Pelousy will have to find another doggie to pet.


37 posted on 08/26/2010 10:39:07 AM PDT by Fresh Wind (For the first time in half a century, there is no former KKK member in the US Senate.)
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To: InterceptPoint
Ping.

-PJ

38 posted on 08/26/2010 10:39:18 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too ("Comprehensive" reform bills only end up as incomprehensible messes.)
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To: GonzoGOP; All
The unions are going to pump a ton of money into all these races, and they will get hosed in terms of payback for dollars spent. Many Wealthy GOP-ers running will take great resources from the DNC to combat them, i.e. Scott and Snyder.

But IMHO the big game is in the Senate. The Dems are going to spend a fortune to hang onto seats and it will cost them a fortune.

The question is, how much damage will it do to the unions?

My take on the Senate, we could pick up between 8 to 14, here they the ones in play IMHO, and are really possible, i.e. retiring Dems, Died in Office, Spectre, etc. Note these are all Republican pickups, not a Republican picking up a Republican Seat.

1.) California, Fiorina,
2.) Colorado, Buck
3.) IL, Kirk,
4.) Nevada, Angle
5.) Washington, Rossi,
6.) Wisconsin, Johnson
7.) Connecticut, McMann,
8.) PA, Toomey,
9.) Delaware, Castle
10.) Arkansas, Boozman
11.) North Dakota, Hoeven

The long shots...

1.) OR, Hoffman over Widen
2.) West Virgina, the Byrd Seat,
3 & 4.) The NY seats, Gillibrand and Schumer

39 posted on 08/26/2010 10:44:43 AM PDT by taildragger ((Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
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To: patriot preacher
Doesn't matter what the GOP is offering, this a repudiation of the Obama/Pelosi/Reid dictatorship.
40 posted on 08/26/2010 10:48:13 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (When the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn (Pr.29:2))
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To: patriot preacher
WHAT, pray tell, are the Republicans OFFERING? Where is their CONSERVATIVE agenda?! Where is “Reaganism?” Or a new “Contract with America?” Where’s the evidence that their Conservative convictions will last more than 100 days, and they won’t just become “Democrats lite?”

Check out Anna Little in NJ-6 or Scott Sipprelle in NJ-12.

Both are running as full-bore, unapologetic Conservatives. And this is in New Freepin' Jersey!

41 posted on 08/26/2010 11:15:22 AM PDT by Haiku Guy (You can force me to recycle, but I will NOT sing the song!)
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To: Balding_Eagle

OOPS, sorry, just meant to comment on seats in play, and hit the last reply instead of the first.


42 posted on 08/26/2010 12:04:23 PM PDT by codercpc
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To: upchuck

35 Spratt SC5 Mick Mulvaney

I think Spratt is toast. Crispy on both sides. I have to take care of some personal stuff this weekend but I WILL be doing my part for Mulvaney soon.

Hey - Something occurs to me. Do you think we could ping the SC ping list with Mulvaney’s fund raising info? I’m betting a bit of money, even if it was just a little bit from each person, would go a long way.


43 posted on 08/26/2010 12:04:48 PM PDT by MontaniSemperLiberi
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To: Plutarch

Add Kucinich to the list. He’s toast!


44 posted on 08/26/2010 12:34:15 PM PDT by Gen. Burkhalter
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To: painter

“keep working”? painter, you slave-driver.

I’m heading on a vacation. Play some golf. Eat some shrimp. Then, play some golf, again.


45 posted on 08/26/2010 12:46:11 PM PDT by campaignPete R-CT ("pray without ceasing" - Paul of Tarsus)
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To: Political Junkie Too; ken5050
Here is my e-mail to The Club for Growth:

"We love your methodology at KeyHouseRaces.com since we have been using exactly this method since April or so to project the House seats in play for 2010. We use your 4 "experts" plus Election Projection and Real Clear Politics. We are a little more conservative with our projected pickups but the scheme is basically the same. You can see our ranking of the races including the Republican seats in play at KeyHouseRaces.com . We are currently showing 81 Dem seats plus 12 Republican seats in play. That number is expected to grow in the next two months."

46 posted on 08/26/2010 1:25:50 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: Haiku Guy

See my post #46 above.


47 posted on 08/26/2010 1:28:47 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

Yet another add for Key House Races.

If I were to write Club For Growth, I might say,

“Please ignore Key House Races. Their thinking is more muddled than their statistics. Adding two more polls, Election Projection and Real Clear Politics, will make their “predictions” worse if those polls are worse than those you have used and it necessarily means that they aren’t doing “exactly” what you have done.

Also, thank you for being limited in your conclusions. By saying “these races are in play” you make it clear that YOU yourselves aren’t predicting anything and you are much more self effacing and credible.”


48 posted on 08/26/2010 2:37:17 PM PDT by MontaniSemperLiberi
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

You should go ahead. Please post their reply if you get one.


49 posted on 08/26/2010 4:33:07 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: Haiku Guy

Check out Anna Little in NJ-6 or Scott Sipprelle in NJ-12.

Both are running as full-bore, unapologetic Conservatives. And this is in New Freepin’ Jersey!


I believe you. And there are Republicans who are running as unapologetic, unrepentant and unreconstructed Conservatives — here and there. MOST, however, are on “cruise control,” trying to ride the wave of aniti-Obama sentiment and anti-democrat anger. That’s alright as far as it goes — but with SO many RINO’s in the Republican party, that’s NOT VERY FREAKIN’ FAR.

The Conservatives who win, even if Republicans do take the House or BOTH House and Senate back, will be mightily challenged by the RINO’s, because the impulse of the RINO’s will be COMPROMISE — “go along to get along,” work WITH Obama. The Conservatives will HAVE to say NO, AND present an ALTERNATIVE AGENDA loud and clear.

From what I’ve seen, that’s next to impossible. The MSM will stonewall and shut out all news of a Conservative alternative agenda, the RINO’s will sell them down the river in a heartbeat (McCain, Grahamnesty, Collins, Snowe — please...) Even Boehner would be likelier to cooperate with Pelosi than with some of the more staunch Conservatives if it came down to REAL Constitutional issues or cutting spending issues.

Thankfully, we have an alternative media that is now breaking thru — people are paying attention to various sources, from FoxNews to Rush to Beck to Hannity, to Savage and Reagan and Valentine and dozens of others. Not to mention the internet — FR and hundreds of forums and blogs. With the Tea Party and 9/12 groups, we are just beginning to be able to compete with the machines the Left has built for decades. But it won’t come easily. That’s why I don’t think we’ll win Congress this time — at least not both houses. And it will get uglier before we can purge out the dross and reset the system as the Founders meant it to be.


50 posted on 08/26/2010 9:54:23 PM PDT by patriot preacher
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