Skip to comments.Over Time, a Gay Marriage Groundswell (NYT Uses Its Crystal Ball)
Posted on 08/27/2010 8:57:30 AM PDT by zort
Gay marriage is not going away as a highly emotional, contested issue. Proposition 8, the California ballot measure that bans same-sex marriage, has seen to that, as it winds its way through the federal courts.
But perhaps the public has reached a turning point.
A CNN poll this month found that a narrow majority of Americans supported same-sex marriage--the first poll to find majority support. Other poll results did not go that far, but still, on average, showed that support for gay marriage had risen to 45 percent or more (with the rest either opposed or undecided).
Thats a big change from 1996, when Congress passed the Defense of Marriage Act. At that time, only 25 percent of Americans said that gay and lesbian couples should have the right to marry, according to an average of national polls....
According to our research, as recently as 2004, same-sex marriage did not have majority support in any state. By 2008, three states had crossed the 50 percent line.*
Today, 17 states are over that line (more if you consider the CNN estimate correct that just over 50 percent of the country supports gay marriage)....
This trend will continue. Nationally, a majority of people under age 30 support same-sex marriage. And this is not because of overwhelming majorities found in more liberal states that skew the national picture: our research shows that a majority of young people in almost every state support it. As new voters come of age, and as their older counterparts exit the voting pool, its likely that support will increase, pushing more states over the halfway mark.
State figures are based on a statistical technique has been used to generate state estimates from national polls....
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Also, I was amused by this comment:
As new voters come of age, and as their older counterparts exit the voting poolLOL -- older voters don't exit the voting pool... they stick with the Democratic Party forever. ;-)
“Gay marriage is not going away as a highly emotional, contested issue”
When has the NYet Times ever led off an article about protecting unborn children with a sentence like this?
I don’t care if 99.999% of the people support gay marriage. I don’t, won’t and never will...
And as more red diaper doper babies are edumacated through public schools, oppositition to Communism, Socialism, and the decline of America’s standard of living also wanes.
How about if their polls showed 103% support for it?
NYT should start with a poll of their reporters and editors—and publish it.
The poll was BS when first published, and it is still BS.
From where I sit there is only a small hard-core minority of gay activists who are really FOR gay marriage.
The rest of the population is divided between those who are adamantly opposed, and those (mainly younger people) who seem indifferent on the subject.
1) gays will get married
2) the gay divorce rate will be 4 times that of straight couples
3) the primary cause of the high divorce rate in gays will be ‘adultery’-—read about the very promiscuous lifestyle of the homosexual community.
4) lawyers will make a killing on the high divorce rate(what else is new)
5) gays will blame the high divorce rate on ‘nonacceptance prejudice’ from straights and demand new laws
6) NAMBLA will push for lowering the age of consent
7) Blacks and Hispanics will be the greatest opposition to gay marriage YET STILL vote democrat
And in addition to what you mention, we will see the same legal arguments for same-sex marriage (i.e. consenting adults in relationships want equal rights, etc. ) will be used to justify polygamy and group marriage. Limiting the number of people in a marriage to two will be said by judges to be as discriminatory as limiting marriage to opposite sex partners. The seeds for this are being planted now.
Yep. I say this all the time, but no one gets it. This is why homosexual marriage is inevitable. Without support from blacks and Latinos in 2008, Prop 8 would have failed. Exit polls in other states in 2004 showed a similar dynamic - heavy support for traditional marriage from minorities. Those same blacks and Latinos then voted for politicians who either pass homosexual-friendly legislation, or nominate and confirm homosexual-friendly judges.
On NAMBLA, it's never going to happen. First, consent laws are set by the state, not the FedGov. Second, the sickos in NAMBLA don't want to have sex with teenagers, they want to have sex with children - they're pedophiles. That is never going to happen. For a lot of different reasons, the age of consent is never going to be lower than 15 or 16 (for sex between a minor and adult). It is lower is some states for sex between two minors.
You mean like the Equal Rights Amendment?
Wasn’t that also inevitable?
20 years ago they were saying that about homosexual "marriage". Now you're throwing in the towel and being a defeatist, calling it inevitable. 20 years from now, another defeatist may be saying the same about NAMBLA.
Give an inch and they'll take a mile.
No, it won't. Why? Because in addition to social conservatives not wanting to lower the age of consent, militant feminists don't either. They believe that sex between a grown man and a teenage girl is rape. NAMBLA has no friends on the left, nor right.
I'm not a "defeatist". I'm a realist. I'm smart enough to understand practical realities, demographics, law, and the legislative process. Prohibitions on homosexual marriage will be struck by the Court, probably within the next five years, and there isn't the political will to pass a constitutional amendment. If you think there is, you don't have any idea how constitutional amendments are passed.
“Give an inch and they’ll take a mile.”
Ah, the slippery slope. Unfortunately, this is a battle thats been going for a reasonable amount of time. But the problem is related to desensitization, which means that people get used to it and stop caring about it and more significantly stop opposing it. So disappointing as it may seem (and it really is) this does seem inevitable.
I’d wait for a few more polls to confirm or deny any given result.
The phrase “Mr. and Mr.” will never be uttered by me.
Yup. We won on abortion, didn't we. We were ASSURED that it was ONLY in the case of incest, rape and the life of the mother. It would NEVER be used as birth control.
militant feminists don't either.
You mean those women that are all over islam for women's rights?
They believe that sex between a grown man and a teenage girl is rape.
They back what is politically expedient at the moment.
I'm not a "defeatist". I'm a realist.
You're also not a conservative.
I agree - as perverse as the idea of legalized gay marriage undoubtedly is, it still is a choice of consenting adults and affects how the Courts would see it. NAMBLA is an impossibility at every level that I can think of and conflating gay-marriage with it is absurd.
That attitude isn't popular on FR. This is not just a forum. It is a grassroots activist site. If you won't fight, get out of the way.