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District by District Polls Showing Republicans Will Sweep Congress
Every poll I could find ^ | 9-1-10 | dangus

Posted on 09/01/2010 8:57:26 PM PDT by dangus

Polls have been conducted in a small minority of districts, but there are still plenty to show that Republicans are poised to take control of Congress. (The more competitive districts are most likely to have polls taken in them, of course.) After checking Wikipedia, Real Clear Politics and googling the names of every remaining candidate in Republican-leaning districts with Democratic congressmen, I present the poll data to show Republicans already leading in plenty of districts to overwhelm the Democrats' current 39-seat majority. Based only on this data (excluding hundreds of districts with no polling found), I predict 52-60 seats gained. (I'd guesstimate that the Republicans could win an additional dozen or more unpolled districts.)

39 Districts where Republican challengers are already ahead:(Republicans listed first.)
AZ 8 Patton 45, Giffords 44 R+4
AR 1 Crawford 40, Causey 34 R+8
AR 2 Griffin 52, Elliott 35 R+5
CO 3 Tipton 49, Salazar 43 (internal) R+5
FL 2 Southerland 52, Boyd 37 R+6
FL 8 Long 46, Grayson 38 R+2 (Unpolled Webster beat Long in primary)
FL 22 West 44, Klein 42 D+1
FL 24 Miller 44, Kosmas 41 R+4
IL 8 Walsh 38, Bean 37 R+1
IL 10 Kinzinger 52, Halvorson 32 D+6
IL 14 Hultgren 44, Foster 37 R+1
IL 17 Schilling 45, Hare 32 D+3
IA 3 Zaun 51, Boswell 41 D+1
MI 1 Benishek 45, McDowell 29 MI +4
MI 13 Clarke 44, Cheeks-Kilpatrick 31 D+31
MI 7 Walberg 50, Schauer 40 R+2
MS 1 Nunnelee 50, Childers 42 R+14
NH 1 Giunta 42, Shea-Porter 38 D+0
NH 2 Bass 44, Swett 27 D+3
NM 1 Barela 51, Heinrich 45 D+5
NC 2 Ellmers 39, Etheridge 38 R+2
ND Berg 53, Pomeroy 44 R+10
OH 1 Chabot 47, Driehaus 45 D+1
OH 15 Stivers 49, Kilroy 44 D+1
OH 16 Renacci 49, Boccieri 35 R+4
PA 3 Kelly 52, Dahlkemper 38 R+3
PA 7 Meehan 47, Lentz 26 D+3
PA 10 Marino 52, Carney 37 R+8
PA 12 Burns 44, Critz 40 R+1
SD Noem 51, Herseth-Sandlin 42 R+9
TN 8 Fincher 47, Herron 37 R+6
TX 17 Flores 53, Edwards 41 R+20
TX 23 Canseco 43, Rodriguez 37
VA 2 Rigell 51, Nye 35 R+5
VA 5 Hurt 49, Perriello 43 R+5
VA 11 Fimian 40, Connolly 35 D+2
WA 3 Herrerra 54, Heck 41 D+0
WI 7 Duffy 42, Lassa 33 D+3
WI 8 Ribble 49, Kagan 39 R+2

5 more open seats in Republican leaning districts
TN 6 R+13 (no polls, but open seat)
LA 3 R+12 (no polls, but open seat)
IN 8 R+8 (no polls, but open seat)
WV 1 R+8 (no polls, but open seat)
NY 29 R+5 (no polls, but open seat)
----
16 districts with Republicans close to or tied with Democrat incumbents, with the incumbent well below 50%
CA 11 Harmer 41, McNerney 42
CT 4 Dabicella 42 , Himes 46 D+6
GA 8 Scott 39, Marshall 44 R+10
IN 2 Wlaorski 44, Donnelly 46 R+2
MD 1 Kratovil 44/36, Harris 39/39 R+13
MO 4 Hartzler 42, Skelton 45 R+8
NV 3 Titus 43/42/44/40, Heck 42/40/49/40 D+2 (4 polls showing see-sawing leads)
NM 2 Pearce 46, Teague 47 R+6
NY 1 Altschuler 45, Bishop 47 D+0
NC 7 Pantano 42, McIntyre 45 R+5
NC 8 Johnson 35, Kissell 41R+2
NC 11 Miller 44, Shuler 45 R+6
OH 13 Ganley 41, Sutton 43 D+5
OH 18 Gibbs 43, Space 43 R+7 (internal)
SC 5 Mulvaney 41, Spratt 43 R+7
VA 9 Boucher 42, Griffith 39 R+11
---
6 Republican-leaning districts with Democrats still leading (Democrat listed first)
AL 2 Bright 54, Roby 30 (Feb) R+16
ID 1 Minnick 37, Labrador 27 R+17
IN 9 Jill 41, Young 34 R+6
KY 6 Chandler 46, Barr 32 R+9
OK 2 Boren 45, Thompson 25 R+14
WV 3 Rahall 53, Maynard 37 R+6

(The letter-and-number value after each poll result indicates the Cook Presidential Vote Index for the district. This is a measure of how much Democrat- or Republican- leaning a district is, based on 2004 and 2008 votes for president. For instance, "R+6" means that the district votes 6% more Republican, on average, than the average district. All poll results are the most recent, independent polls, where available.)

Please post any poll data you have, to help make this list more complete.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2010; dangus; democrats; election; house; houseraces; midterms; republicans
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1 posted on 09/01/2010 8:57:28 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

Let’s not let our guard down, or get overconfident. We still need votes!


2 posted on 09/01/2010 9:02:01 PM PDT by BAW (November. Let's roll.)
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To: dangus
ID 1 Minnick 37, Labrador 27 R+17

This is going to be a tough one for the GOP to pick up. Many people I personally know don't trust Labrador on immigration issues given he's an immigration attorney.

3 posted on 09/01/2010 9:03:06 PM PDT by Domandred (Fdisk, format, and reinstall the entire .gov system.)
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To: BAW

Let’s not let our guard down, or get overconfident. We still need votes!


Exactly. No let up.


4 posted on 09/01/2010 9:03:49 PM PDT by unkus
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To: dangus

Good work. Dick Morris has been using a similar approach to prove that the Republicans will take control of the Senate also. He says the House is a given, it’s just a matter of “how many seats”. But, we can’t get overconfident.


5 posted on 09/01/2010 9:05:04 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: dangus

btt


6 posted on 09/01/2010 9:05:27 PM PDT by Ciexyz
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To: dangus

Some are well within the margin of error..
Don’t let down..This will be a battle.


7 posted on 09/01/2010 9:05:48 PM PDT by MEG33 (God Bless Our Military Men And Women)
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To: InterceptPoint

ping


8 posted on 09/01/2010 9:05:48 PM PDT by randita (Visit keyhouseraces.com to find GOP House candidates who need your support to knock off a DEM.)
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To: dangus

Thank you, dangus.


9 posted on 09/01/2010 9:06:09 PM PDT by unkus
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To: dangus

This article shows Mike Fitzpatrick having a lead over the incumbent Rat Pat Murphy in PA 08.

http://www.pa2010.com/2010/08/gop-poll-memo-claims-7-point-edge-for-fitzpatrick/


10 posted on 09/01/2010 9:06:20 PM PDT by Shadow44
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To: bigbob

I’m pretty sure Dick Morris cribbed one of my vanities. I posted a while ago, predicting that there were 99 Democrat-held seats that could be in play, if the Democrats passed Obamacare. Not 100. 99. The next night, Morris predicted that there could be 99 Democrat-held seats in play if the Democrats passed Obamacare. Not 100. 99.


11 posted on 09/01/2010 9:08:35 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus
Given that democrat = communist now, will there be any votes for a democrat on November 2nd?
12 posted on 09/01/2010 9:09:50 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: unkus

Don’t let up is right! As far as I’m concerned, the margin of error is always 100%!


13 posted on 09/01/2010 9:10:27 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

The lesser of 2 evils.Great choice America.


14 posted on 09/01/2010 9:10:43 PM PDT by taxtruth
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To: Shadow44

Excellent! I’ll be sure to do include that (with notes that it’s internal) for any later editions of this.


15 posted on 09/01/2010 9:12:13 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

How’s Doug Hoffman doing up there in NY-23?


16 posted on 09/01/2010 9:13:07 PM PDT by tflabo
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To: BAW

Barack Obama and his Merry Men are the best GOP campaigners that America has seen for decades.


17 posted on 09/01/2010 9:13:07 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: BAW

I agree. It won’t happen unless YOU VOTE!!!


18 posted on 09/01/2010 9:13:26 PM PDT by Frank_2001
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To: dangus

MI 13 Clarke 44, Cheeks-Kilpatrick 31 D+31

Those were the Dem primary candidates. Hansen Clarke beat the incumbent, Kwame’s mommie. GOP has no shot here.


19 posted on 09/01/2010 9:13:32 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Amber Lamps !"~~)
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To: dangus
Don't forget this one:

Poll Shows Small Gap Between Pallone and Little (NJ-6)

20 posted on 09/01/2010 9:14:27 PM PDT by Haiku Guy (You can force me to recycle, but I will NOT sing the song!)
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To: dangus

Exactly! We’re in a fight for our survival.


21 posted on 09/01/2010 9:15:16 PM PDT by unkus
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To: dangus

Can’t happen soon enough.

I want Boxer & Stark to go down.


22 posted on 09/01/2010 9:17:30 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder ("No longer can we make no mistake for too long". Barack d****it 0bama, 2009, 2010, 2011.)
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To: dangus

I’d bet Morris did just that. Your work is to be commended!


23 posted on 09/01/2010 9:17:40 PM PDT by unkus
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To: taxtruth
The lesser of 2 evils.Great choice America.

If you can't stop bitchin' and get votin' in this election, I pity you...

24 posted on 09/01/2010 9:17:50 PM PDT by Haiku Guy (You can force me to recycle, but I will NOT sing the song!)
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To: dangus
FL 8 Long 46, Grayson 38 R+2

I sincerely hope this turns out this way. Grayson is an embarrassment to the human race.

TX 17 Flores 53, Edwards 41 R+20

This would be awesome, as well. It's time for Chet Edwards to retire.

25 posted on 09/01/2010 9:18:38 PM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good WOMAN (Sgt. Kimberly Munley) with a gun)
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To: tflabo

I found an internal poll where Hoffman leads by 5, but the GOP establishment wanted a guy named Doheny, who already took the Independent party line. Hoffman claims his poll shows him leading Doheney 55-20 in a primary.


26 posted on 09/01/2010 9:19:28 PM PDT by dangus
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To: tflabo

I found an internal poll where Hoffman leads by 5, but the GOP establishment wanted a guy named Doheny, who already took the Independent party line. Hoffman claims his poll shows him leading Doheney 55-20 in a primary.


27 posted on 09/01/2010 9:19:38 PM PDT by dangus
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To: Frank_2001

I selectively encourage people on our side to get out and vote and, in casual conversation with the “enemy”, I discourage them.


28 posted on 09/01/2010 9:19:58 PM PDT by unkus
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To: HiTech RedNeck

Karl Rove, you sick, crazy genius... planting a Kenyan impostor in the Democrat party!


29 posted on 09/01/2010 9:20:49 PM PDT by dangus
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To: Art in Idaho

Just how many elections have communists lost once they were in power?


30 posted on 09/01/2010 9:21:09 PM PDT by REDWOOD99
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Thanks, that one seemed very odd.


31 posted on 09/01/2010 9:21:35 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

Well done dangus. Any chance we could get you to add Polling Source and Polling Date to your list. KeyHouseRaces has most of these polls but not all and we need the extra data before we can post them.


32 posted on 09/01/2010 9:22:17 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: Domandred

I like Minnick. Met him and he’s a stand up guy. Gives his word and stands by it. Despises the leadership. I could see a party switch in his future. Don’t know much about him personally but any guy who wears cowboy boots to the Capital is okay with me.


33 posted on 09/01/2010 9:22:20 PM PDT by appeal2 (Don't steal, the government hates competition.)
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To: REDWOOD99

Nicaragua, Poland, Czechoslavakia, New Jersey...


34 posted on 09/01/2010 9:22:27 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

I said 95 to 100 seats when they were trying to ram health care through. But elections are a lot like the laws congress passes, you have see the results to find out what’s in them.


35 posted on 09/01/2010 9:24:41 PM PDT by appeal2 (Don't steal, the government hates competition.)
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To: dangus

Please add TX-27 to the list. It is the third most likely district to swing Republican, and this was even before the travel stipend story that broke yesterday.


36 posted on 09/01/2010 9:26:18 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: Domandred
Many people I personally know don't trust Labrador on immigration issues given he's an immigration attorney.

Attorney: Two strikes.

Immigration attorney: Strike three.

37 posted on 09/01/2010 9:26:50 PM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA: Ignorance on Parade)
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To: dangus

Once upon a time, the prospect of “Republicans” seizing control of Congress could be viewed as unquestionably good news.....


38 posted on 09/01/2010 9:28:32 PM PDT by EyeGuy
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To: dangus

WOW, you did a lot of good work for this post, thank you!

Also, VERY GOOD in telling us which person is with which party.

The guy on NRO had a blog post the other day with a bunch of poll info, much like this (not as many as shown here). But he had no indication of which party each candidate was from.

I really thought that was awful and was going to comment, but their comments are not 24 hours, so I never did. But I hope someone did.

The way he had it the list was basically useless, at least for a quick read.

I mean, I know we are political junkies and all, but there are HUNDREDS of these congress critters, we really can’t be expected to know too many of them.

That would go from political junkie to political OD.


39 posted on 09/01/2010 9:34:55 PM PDT by jocon307 (No enemies on the right, from now until November)
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To: dangus

Only if we vote !!!


40 posted on 09/01/2010 9:35:00 PM PDT by NordP (COMMON SENSE CONSERVATIVES - Love of Country, Less Govt, Stop Spending, No Govt Run Health Care!!!)
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To: dangus
UPDATES: REPUBLICANS LEADING INCUMBENT DEMOCRATS NJ 3 Runyan 36, Adler 35 D+4
OR 5 Bruun 41, Schrader 38 D+3
PA 11 Barletta 52, Kanjorski 41 D+10
VA 2 Rigell 41, Nye 35 R+5
(That's 42, not 43, since MI-13 was in error. ) REPUBLICANS CLOSING IN ON DEMOCRATS NY 25 Burkle 41, Maffei 44 D+7

41 posted on 09/01/2010 9:35:42 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus
"VA 9 Boucher 42, Griffith 39 R+11"

I have a difficult time believing that one. As disgusting as it may sound, Boucher practically 'owns' that district. I've never seen him win by anything less than 15 points, and that was in 2004. I was happy just to see the GOP even challenge him.

Just anecdotal here, but I HAVE seen LOTS of Griffith signs everywhere, and hardly any Boucher signs. I know this means nothing, because in '04, there were LOTS of Kerry signs(Kerry lost by 30 points in the locality where I saw lots of his signs), but I never recall seeing a challenger to Boucher with lots of signs up. I also saw a Boucher TV add earlier this week. I've NEVER seen him run a Television ad. His TV as was almost a comedy, if not just sad. He was remarking on all of the jobs he has "created". Anyone that has lived here for more than a few years knows that this area has been literally BLEEDING jobs. I saw him in the grocery store not long after he voted FOR Cap & Trade, and I almost yelled at him. lol The ONLY thing he has done is bring home pork since the dems took CONgress, and always manages to get his mug on the newspaper when it happens. Who knows... Maybe Boucher doesn't know how to run a seriously contested race, because he's never had one...

If the republicans can get within single digits in this district, it truly will be a 'wave' type election. If the republicans can get a win out of this district, it will be a Tsunami of epic proportions!

42 posted on 09/01/2010 9:35:49 PM PDT by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
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To: REDWOOD99
Just how many elections have communists lost once they were in power?

That's why this election is so important. If our guy or gal is ahead by 5-10 pts and loses, then it's on to Revolution II while we still can. . .

43 posted on 09/01/2010 9:37:28 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: Paleo Conservative

I’m all ears, if you have any poll data to tell me.


44 posted on 09/01/2010 9:37:43 PM PDT by dangus
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To: justlurking

In FL8, Todd Long lost the Repub primary to long-time Fla. legislator Daniel Webster. Race against Grayson already dubbed “The devil and Daniel Webster”! Webster is gentlemanly, reserved - could not be more of a contrast to the bombastic, unhinged a**hole Grayson!
Haven’t seen any polls yet re Webster v Grayson.


45 posted on 09/01/2010 9:39:11 PM PDT by nuvista (Obama-care - you think that arrogant Marxist "cares" about you?)
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To: Haiku Guy

Americans keep voting for the same system expecting a different result.That’s called insanity.GOOD LUCK!


46 posted on 09/01/2010 9:39:31 PM PDT by taxtruth
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To: KoRn

I double-checked, and found a source saying 52-39. That seems unlikely, though, since that leaves only 9% undecided. I’ll definitely see what I can find before I post another thread, probably in a couple of weeks.


47 posted on 09/01/2010 9:40:46 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus
AZ 8 Patton 45, Giffords 44 R+4

Jesse Kelly is the Rep nominee. You must be using old data.

48 posted on 09/01/2010 9:41:09 PM PDT by kabar
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To: Haiku Guy

Thanks. I hadn’t found that one (probably because it was an internal).


49 posted on 09/01/2010 9:42:50 PM PDT by dangus
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To: kabar

Thanks. I tried to find out when a polled candidate lost (Long v Grayson, for instance).


50 posted on 09/01/2010 9:44:07 PM PDT by dangus
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