Posted on 09/01/2010 8:57:26 PM PDT by dangus
Polls have been conducted in a small minority of districts, but there are still plenty to show that Republicans are poised to take control of Congress. (The more competitive districts are most likely to have polls taken in them, of course.) After checking Wikipedia, Real Clear Politics and googling the names of every remaining candidate in Republican-leaning districts with Democratic congressmen, I present the poll data to show Republicans already leading in plenty of districts to overwhelm the Democrats' current 39-seat majority. Based only on this data (excluding hundreds of districts with no polling found), I predict 52-60 seats gained. (I'd guesstimate that the Republicans could win an additional dozen or more unpolled districts.)
39 Districts where Republican challengers are already ahead:(Republicans listed first.)
AZ 8 Patton 45, Giffords 44 R+4
AR 1 Crawford 40, Causey 34 R+8
AR 2 Griffin 52, Elliott 35 R+5
CO 3 Tipton 49, Salazar 43 (internal) R+5
FL 2 Southerland 52, Boyd 37 R+6
FL 8 Long 46, Grayson 38 R+2 (Unpolled Webster beat Long in primary)
FL 22 West 44, Klein 42 D+1
FL 24 Miller 44, Kosmas 41 R+4
IL 8 Walsh 38, Bean 37 R+1
IL 10 Kinzinger 52, Halvorson 32 D+6
IL 14 Hultgren 44, Foster 37 R+1
IL 17 Schilling 45, Hare 32 D+3
IA 3 Zaun 51, Boswell 41 D+1
MI 1 Benishek 45, McDowell 29 MI +4
MI 13 Clarke 44, Cheeks-Kilpatrick 31 D+31
MI 7 Walberg 50, Schauer 40 R+2
MS 1 Nunnelee 50, Childers 42 R+14
NH 1 Giunta 42, Shea-Porter 38 D+0
NH 2 Bass 44, Swett 27 D+3
NM 1 Barela 51, Heinrich 45 D+5
NC 2 Ellmers 39, Etheridge 38 R+2
ND Berg 53, Pomeroy 44 R+10
OH 1 Chabot 47, Driehaus 45 D+1
OH 15 Stivers 49, Kilroy 44 D+1
OH 16 Renacci 49, Boccieri 35 R+4
PA 3 Kelly 52, Dahlkemper 38 R+3
PA 7 Meehan 47, Lentz 26 D+3
PA 10 Marino 52, Carney 37 R+8
PA 12 Burns 44, Critz 40 R+1
SD Noem 51, Herseth-Sandlin 42 R+9
TN 8 Fincher 47, Herron 37 R+6
TX 17 Flores 53, Edwards 41 R+20
TX 23 Canseco 43, Rodriguez 37
VA 2 Rigell 51, Nye 35 R+5
VA 5 Hurt 49, Perriello 43 R+5
VA 11 Fimian 40, Connolly 35 D+2
WA 3 Herrerra 54, Heck 41 D+0
WI 7 Duffy 42, Lassa 33 D+3
WI 8 Ribble 49, Kagan 39 R+2
5 more open seats in Republican leaning districts
TN 6 R+13 (no polls, but open seat)
LA 3 R+12 (no polls, but open seat)
IN 8 R+8 (no polls, but open seat)
WV 1 R+8 (no polls, but open seat)
NY 29 R+5 (no polls, but open seat)
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16 districts with Republicans close to or tied with Democrat incumbents, with the incumbent well below 50%
CA 11 Harmer 41, McNerney 42
CT 4 Dabicella 42 , Himes 46 D+6
GA 8 Scott 39, Marshall 44 R+10
IN 2 Wlaorski 44, Donnelly 46 R+2
MD 1 Kratovil 44/36, Harris 39/39 R+13
MO 4 Hartzler 42, Skelton 45 R+8
NV 3 Titus 43/42/44/40, Heck 42/40/49/40 D+2 (4 polls showing see-sawing leads)
NM 2 Pearce 46, Teague 47 R+6
NY 1 Altschuler 45, Bishop 47 D+0
NC 7 Pantano 42, McIntyre 45 R+5
NC 8 Johnson 35, Kissell 41R+2
NC 11 Miller 44, Shuler 45 R+6
OH 13 Ganley 41, Sutton 43 D+5
OH 18 Gibbs 43, Space 43 R+7 (internal)
SC 5 Mulvaney 41, Spratt 43 R+7
VA 9 Boucher 42, Griffith 39 R+11
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6 Republican-leaning districts with Democrats still leading (Democrat listed first)
AL 2 Bright 54, Roby 30 (Feb) R+16
ID 1 Minnick 37, Labrador 27 R+17
IN 9 Jill 41, Young 34 R+6
KY 6 Chandler 46, Barr 32 R+9
OK 2 Boren 45, Thompson 25 R+14
WV 3 Rahall 53, Maynard 37 R+6
(The letter-and-number value after each poll result indicates the Cook Presidential Vote Index for the district. This is a measure of how much Democrat- or Republican- leaning a district is, based on 2004 and 2008 votes for president. For instance, "R+6" means that the district votes 6% more Republican, on average, than the average district. All poll results are the most recent, independent polls, where available.)
Please post any poll data you have, to help make this list more complete.
Let’s not let our guard down, or get overconfident. We still need votes!
This is going to be a tough one for the GOP to pick up. Many people I personally know don't trust Labrador on immigration issues given he's an immigration attorney.
Let’s not let our guard down, or get overconfident. We still need votes!
Exactly. No let up.
Good work. Dick Morris has been using a similar approach to prove that the Republicans will take control of the Senate also. He says the House is a given, it’s just a matter of “how many seats”. But, we can’t get overconfident.
btt
Some are well within the margin of error..
Don’t let down..This will be a battle.
ping
Thank you, dangus.
This article shows Mike Fitzpatrick having a lead over the incumbent Rat Pat Murphy in PA 08.
http://www.pa2010.com/2010/08/gop-poll-memo-claims-7-point-edge-for-fitzpatrick/
I’m pretty sure Dick Morris cribbed one of my vanities. I posted a while ago, predicting that there were 99 Democrat-held seats that could be in play, if the Democrats passed Obamacare. Not 100. 99. The next night, Morris predicted that there could be 99 Democrat-held seats in play if the Democrats passed Obamacare. Not 100. 99.
Don’t let up is right! As far as I’m concerned, the margin of error is always 100%!
The lesser of 2 evils.Great choice America.
Excellent! I’ll be sure to do include that (with notes that it’s internal) for any later editions of this.
How’s Doug Hoffman doing up there in NY-23?
Barack Obama and his Merry Men are the best GOP campaigners that America has seen for decades.
I agree. It won’t happen unless YOU VOTE!!!
MI 13 Clarke 44, Cheeks-Kilpatrick 31 D+31
Those were the Dem primary candidates. Hansen Clarke beat the incumbent, Kwame’s mommie. GOP has no shot here.
Exactly! We’re in a fight for our survival.
Can’t happen soon enough.
I want Boxer & Stark to go down.
I’d bet Morris did just that. Your work is to be commended!
If you can't stop bitchin' and get votin' in this election, I pity you...
I sincerely hope this turns out this way. Grayson is an embarrassment to the human race.
TX 17 Flores 53, Edwards 41 R+20
This would be awesome, as well. It's time for Chet Edwards to retire.
I found an internal poll where Hoffman leads by 5, but the GOP establishment wanted a guy named Doheny, who already took the Independent party line. Hoffman claims his poll shows him leading Doheney 55-20 in a primary.
I found an internal poll where Hoffman leads by 5, but the GOP establishment wanted a guy named Doheny, who already took the Independent party line. Hoffman claims his poll shows him leading Doheney 55-20 in a primary.
I selectively encourage people on our side to get out and vote and, in casual conversation with the “enemy”, I discourage them.
Karl Rove, you sick, crazy genius... planting a Kenyan impostor in the Democrat party!
Just how many elections have communists lost once they were in power?
Thanks, that one seemed very odd.
Well done dangus. Any chance we could get you to add Polling Source and Polling Date to your list. KeyHouseRaces has most of these polls but not all and we need the extra data before we can post them.
I like Minnick. Met him and he’s a stand up guy. Gives his word and stands by it. Despises the leadership. I could see a party switch in his future. Don’t know much about him personally but any guy who wears cowboy boots to the Capital is okay with me.
Nicaragua, Poland, Czechoslavakia, New Jersey...
I said 95 to 100 seats when they were trying to ram health care through. But elections are a lot like the laws congress passes, you have see the results to find out what’s in them.
Please add TX-27 to the list. It is the third most likely district to swing Republican, and this was even before the travel stipend story that broke yesterday.
Attorney: Two strikes.
Immigration attorney: Strike three.
Once upon a time, the prospect of “Republicans” seizing control of Congress could be viewed as unquestionably good news.....
WOW, you did a lot of good work for this post, thank you!
Also, VERY GOOD in telling us which person is with which party.
The guy on NRO had a blog post the other day with a bunch of poll info, much like this (not as many as shown here). But he had no indication of which party each candidate was from.
I really thought that was awful and was going to comment, but their comments are not 24 hours, so I never did. But I hope someone did.
The way he had it the list was basically useless, at least for a quick read.
I mean, I know we are political junkies and all, but there are HUNDREDS of these congress critters, we really can’t be expected to know too many of them.
That would go from political junkie to political OD.
Only if we vote !!!
I have a difficult time believing that one. As disgusting as it may sound, Boucher practically 'owns' that district. I've never seen him win by anything less than 15 points, and that was in 2004. I was happy just to see the GOP even challenge him.
Just anecdotal here, but I HAVE seen LOTS of Griffith signs everywhere, and hardly any Boucher signs. I know this means nothing, because in '04, there were LOTS of Kerry signs(Kerry lost by 30 points in the locality where I saw lots of his signs), but I never recall seeing a challenger to Boucher with lots of signs up. I also saw a Boucher TV add earlier this week. I've NEVER seen him run a Television ad. His TV as was almost a comedy, if not just sad. He was remarking on all of the jobs he has "created". Anyone that has lived here for more than a few years knows that this area has been literally BLEEDING jobs. I saw him in the grocery store not long after he voted FOR Cap & Trade, and I almost yelled at him. lol The ONLY thing he has done is bring home pork since the dems took CONgress, and always manages to get his mug on the newspaper when it happens. Who knows... Maybe Boucher doesn't know how to run a seriously contested race, because he's never had one...
If the republicans can get within single digits in this district, it truly will be a 'wave' type election. If the republicans can get a win out of this district, it will be a Tsunami of epic proportions!
That's why this election is so important. If our guy or gal is ahead by 5-10 pts and loses, then it's on to Revolution II while we still can. . .
I’m all ears, if you have any poll data to tell me.
In FL8, Todd Long lost the Repub primary to long-time Fla. legislator Daniel Webster. Race against Grayson already dubbed “The devil and Daniel Webster”! Webster is gentlemanly, reserved - could not be more of a contrast to the bombastic, unhinged a**hole Grayson!
Haven’t seen any polls yet re Webster v Grayson.
Americans keep voting for the same system expecting a different result.That’s called insanity.GOOD LUCK!
I double-checked, and found a source saying 52-39. That seems unlikely, though, since that leaves only 9% undecided. I’ll definitely see what I can find before I post another thread, probably in a couple of weeks.
Jesse Kelly is the Rep nominee. You must be using old data.
Thanks. I hadn’t found that one (probably because it was an internal).
Thanks. I tried to find out when a polled candidate lost (Long v Grayson, for instance).
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