Sixty Days to Go The Crystal Ball's Labor Day Predictions (Sabato raises estimate of Dem losses)

Center for Politics ^ | Sep 2, 2010 | Larry J. Sabato

[tlb]

The Democrats’ self-proclaimed “Recovery Summer” has become a term of derision.

Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net.

If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains.

In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react).

Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law of politics, but they do suggest an electoral tendency.

The statehouses will provide the third leg of the Republicans’ 2010 victory. We have long suggested the GOP would gain a net +6 governorships. We now believe they will win +8. This boon to the GOP for redistricting will be enhanced by a gain of perhaps 300 to 500 seats in the state legislatures, and the addition of Republican control in 8 to 12 legislative chambers around the country.

We still have 6 toss-ups for Senate (seats held by the Democrats in all but Florida ). The 9 toss-ups for Governor—six currently held by GOP chief executives and three by Democrats. In the House, the Crystal Ball counts 29 toss-ups, 28 seats held in this Congress by Democrats and just one by Republicans.

[tlb]

Interesting to watch the tide build.

[screaminsunshine]

The storm surge will hit on Nov. 2nd.

[kittymyrib]

Sounds as though Sabato has finally discovered the power of the TEA Party. He was very dismissive at the beginning of the year.

[fieldmarshaldj]

If Sabato is making the predictions, he is surely downplaying GOP gains.

[TruthShallSetYouFree]

Interesting to watch the tide build.

Roll, Tide!

[TomGuy]

it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react<

With the return of McCain, look for more 'gangs' to include Graham, Snowe, Collins, possibly Brown, and Lieberman. They want to be the power brokers and forming 'gangs' allows them to do just that.

[11th Commandment]

True... Dick Morris is now saying that West Virginia’s Senate seat is in play... +13...

[TomGuy]

One massive change could be happening in Arkansas.

Formerly, Arkansas had only one Republican representative to 3 Dem Reps and 2 Dem Senators.

Heading into the fall election, Arkansas could very likely end up with only one Dem rep. Two Rep seats formerly held by 'retiring' Dems could go Republican, and former Representative Boozman (R) is some 30 points ahead of Lincoln (D) in the Senate race.

That could give Arkansas one Dem Rep and one Dem Senator, three GOP Reps and one GOP Senator.

[TomGuy]

Sounds as though Sabato has finally discovered the power of the TEA Party. He was very dismissive at the beginning of the year.

After Santelli called for a Tea Party on CNBC and literally started the movement, a couple of days later Neal Cavuto commented that the 'tea party' movement was a passing fancy and wouldn't last more than a couple of weeks. lol. I bet Cavuto hopes that foresight video never sees the light of day.

[drangundsturm]

If Sabato is making the predictions, he is surely downplaying GOP gains.

He even admits in this article that he is downplaying them. He says he's being "conservative" on gop strength. OTOH, he does admit that the senate always seems to flip when the house flips historically, even when not predicted to do so. So he's covering his bases in case the gop does far better than his predictions.

[albie]

For what it’s worth, Dick Morris says that “hard numbers” point to a 10 seat gain for Republicans in the senate.

[Obadiah]

The Crystal Ball’s predictions are clinical. We are fond of people in both parties. We cheer for no one....

combined with the tendency of Republicans in some districts and states to nominate ideological fringe candidates,...

and to most voters—fair or not—it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered.

Larry Sabato is a dedicated leftist who still proclaims his political virginity. I have learned never to trust or believe what Sabato says as he always has a hidden agenda. Hey Larry, how about Obama is a hardcore Marxist aided and abetted by Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and the corrupt Journolists. Here's what we have been screaming for over a year now:

[MrB]

Morris is estimating up to 70 or 80 seats in the house, and 10-12 in the Senate.

[taildragger]

He has been reading my post again :-)...

If we run the table, The 2 NY's we could get 15. I have saying for 2 weeks we get 52. But I must admit, as yesterday and hearing more about it, I now think WV is in play i.e.the Byrd seat, so we are at +13 potentially.

[paulycy]

Larry Sabato is a dedicated leftist who still proclaims his political virginity.

True that.

[equalitybeforethelaw]

Sabato is a creep. Too bad things aren’t going his way. Look out for him to insert himself into a VA election like he did with George Allen. Sabato is a flunky for the WAPO.

[GailA]

Meet the US 9th District Memphis, TN GOP primary winner
Charlotte Bergmann http://www.charlottebergmann.com/, she took 61% of the GOP primary vote. Her opponent the incumbent says he a white, Jew, votes like a black woman, but won’t debate his black woman opponent. Unfortunately she does not have a ‘war chest’ like his.

Here is her original ad
http://www.charlottebergmann.com/RadioSpot.htm

[NeoCaveman]

If we run the table, The 2 NY's we could get 15.

The good news is Gillibrand is only polling at 44%. The bad news is the GOPers are unknowns.

[Mr. Wright]

All $$$ must originate in the U.S. House.
We can defund Obama care if we win — that is assuming that the R’s have the balls to do the right thing!!

[ken5050]

After watching the California debate last night, I seriously feel that Carly will win..Boxer came off shrill, petty..she’s a lousy speaker, campaigner..never had a tough race before this one..I think she implodes

[mad_as_he$$]

That’s just crazy talk; but it is Morris.

[Little Ray]

Ya know, I’m really getting tired of this.

1. The ‘Pubbies are not pushing out a unified message, beyond “We’re NOT Democrats.” There are pro-Tea Party factions, anti-Tea Party factions, etc. This is not really justification for to vote FOR the Republicans.

2. The bar for Victory is being raised to an exagerated height. As it stands now, if the ‘Pubbies fail to take both the House and Senate, it will be a “victory” for the Democrats and the Obama Agenda and a “mandate” to pursue them.

Expectations need to be set lower, and the ‘Pubbies need to work harder at giving Americans something to vote FOR rather relying on votes against the Democrats and Obama.

[misterrob]

The repubs lost power in 2006 then were washed out even further in 2008. Hard to see the trend not repeat itself with an incompetent Congress and a widely unpopular POTUS.

[twigs]

I agree with you. However, I’ve been hearing that the Republicans are going to put out details after Labor Day, conventional wisdom that doing so before that is too soon.

I’m also worried about the Dem’s purse in the fall. From what I’ve been hearing, they are raising more money than the Republicans and they are going to come out after Labor Day dropping a load of money on ads.

The Republicans need to beware and as you say, the best way to do that is to come out with superior, detailed plans. And we have to fight for every seat as though each one is polling at 50/50.

[CPT Clay]

All $$$ must originate in the U.S. House.
We can defund Obama care if we win — that is assuming that the R’s have the balls to do the right thing!!

You can say that again.

[CPT Clay]

From your keyboard to Gods ears.

[BelegStrongbow]

I love that sign. :)

[American Constitutionalist]

Are you sure the old hippie Democrats are not referring to the 1967 Summer of Love with all the drugs, crime ? .... no, wait, this is 2010.
Wait folks, now I got it, now I know why the Democrats and Obama are proclaiming it the " Recovery Summer " it's because it took them this long to recover from the " Summer of Love " back in 1967.

[American Constitutionalist]

A storm surge rip tide is more like it.