Skip to comments.District-by-district polls already show 2010 should eclipse 1994. (So make it happen!)
Posted on 09/06/2010 4:46:37 AM PDT by dangus
Republicans are now leading in 47 congressional districts held by Democrats. (This is up 8 just since last week.) There are another 5 seats held by retiring Democrats in significantly Republican-leaning districts which have not been polled. That's a total of 52 seats, almost equal to the number gained by Republicans in the 1994 election (54). There are another 20 where Republicans have pulled very close to Democrats, and the Democrats are polling well below 50%, normally a sign of grave danger this early in the election season. And of course, although the media tend to poll the races where the suspect the greatest likelihood of a strong challenged, there are still dozens of competitive seats which have not been polled yet.
47 Districts where Republican challengers are already ahead:
The letter-sign-number combination after the poll numbers indicates the Cook Presidential Vote Index, a measure of how Republican or Democrat leaning a district is, based on recent presidential elections. For instance, R+6 means that the Republican candidates on average win a 6% greater margin in that district than they do nationally.
AZ 1 Gosar 47, Kirkpatrick 41 R+6
AZ 5 Schweikert 50, Mitchell 44 R+5
AZ 8 Kelly 46, Giffords 46 R+4
AR 1 Crawford 40, Causey 34 R+8
AR 2 Griffin 52, Elliott 35 R+5
CA 11 Harmer 45, McNerney 44 R+1
CO 3 Tipton 51, Salazar 43 R+5
CO 4 Gardner 50, Markey 39 R+6
FL 2 Southerland 52, Boyd 37 R+6
FL 8 Long 46, Grayson 38 R+2 (Unpolled Webster beat Long in primary)
FL 22 West 44, Klein 42 D+1
FL 24 Adams 44, Kosmas 41 R+4
IL 8 Walsh 38, Bean 37 R+1
IL 10 Kinzinger 52, Halvorson 32 D+6
IL 14 Hultgren 44, Foster 37 R+1
IL 17 Schilling 45, Hare 32 D+3
IA 3 Zaun 51, Boswell 41 D+1
MI 1 Benishek 45, McDowell 29 MI +4
MI 7 Walberg 50, Schauer 40 R+2
MS 1 Nunnelee 50, Childers 42 R+14
NH 1 Giunta 42, Shea-Porter 38 D+0
NH 2 Bass 44, Swett 27 D+3
NM 1 Barela 51, Heinrich 45 D+5
NC 2 Ellmers 39, Etheridge 38 R+2
ND Berg 53, Pomeroy 44 R+10
NJ 3 Runyan 36, Adler 35 D+4
NV 3 Heck 48, Titus 45 D+2
OH 1 Chabot 47, Driehaus 45 D+1
OH 15 Stivers 49, Kilroy 44 D+1
OH 16 Renacci 49, Boccieri 35 R+4
PA 3 Kelly 52, Dahlkemper 38 R+3
PA 7 Meehan 47, Lentz 26 D+3
PA 8 Fitzpatrick 48, Murphy 41 D+2
PA 10 Marino 52, Carney 37 R+8
PA 11 Barletta 52, Kanjorski 41 D+10
PA 12 Burns 44, Critz 40 R+1
SD Noem 51, Herseth-Sandlin 42 R+9
TN 8 Fincher 47, Herron 37 R+6
TX 17 Flores 53, Edwards 41 R+20
TX 23 Canseco 43, Rodriguez 37 R+6
VA 2 Rigell 41, Nye 35 R+5
VA 5 Hurt 61, Perriello 35 R+5
VA 11 Fimian 40, Connolly 35 D+2
WA 2 Koster 50, Larsen 46
WA 3 Herrerra 54, Heck 41 D+0
WI 7 Duffy 42, Lassa 33 D+3
WI 8 Ribble 49, Kagan 39 R+2
5 more open seats with no known poll data, in Republican leaning districts
TN 6 +13
LA 3 +12
IN 8 +8
WV 1 +8
NY 29 +5
20 districts with Republicans close to Democrat incumbents, with the incumbent well below 50%
CA 47 Tran 43, Sanchez 45 D+4
CT 4 Debincella 38, Himes 42 D+6
FL 25 Rivera 35, Garcia 38 R+18 GA 8 Scott 39, Marshall 44 R+10
IN 2 Walorski 44, Donnelly 46 R+2
KY 3 Yarmouth 47, Lally 43
MD 1 Harris 39, Kratovil 44 or Harris 39, Kratovil 36 R+13
MO 4 Hartzler 42, Skelton 45 R+8
NM 2 Pearce 46, Teague 47 R+6 ( a different poll had Pearce ahead)
NY 1 Altschuler 45, Bishop 47 D+0
NY 20 Gibson 40, Murphy 45 R+4
NY 25 Burkle 41, Maffei 44 D+7
NC 7 Pantano 42, McIntyre 45 R+5
NC 8 Johnson 35, Kissell 41R+2
NC 11 Miller 44, Shuler 45 R+6
OH 13 Ganley 41, Sutton 43 or Ganley 44, Sutton 41 D+5
OH 18 Gibbs 43, Space 43 R+7
OR 5 Bruun 36, Schrader 44 or Bruun 41, Schrader 38
SC 5 Mulvaney 41, Spratt 43 R+7
VA 9 Griffith 40, Boucher 50 R+11
Interestingly, the ten most moderate/conservative Democrats are all doing fairly well, for now.
1. AL 2 Bright R+16 (actual new, conservative Democrat!)
2. MS 4 Taylor R+20 (another conservative Democrat!)
3. NJ 7 Lance R+3 (a moderate Democrat... in the Northeast?!)
4. OK 5 Boren R+14
5. NC 7 McIntyre (see above) R+5
6. TN 4 Davis R+13
7. ID 1 Minnick R+18
8. MN 7 Peterson R+5
9. GA 8 Marshall (see above) R+10
10. UT 2 Matheson R+15 (R+15? This guy isn't even very moderate!)
PA 17 Holden R+6
Latest 3rd-party polls are used in all cases.
Fox: Republicans, 46-37 (+9)
USA Today: 49-43 (+6)
Rasmussen: 45-39 (+6)
Gallup: 51-41 (+10)
(Look for Rasmussen to show the Republican lead to jump back up a few points, as they re-compute their weightings to show a significant change in party identification.)
I'm working hard to keep the KeyHouseRaces poll data up to date so I audit your list against mine just to see if I've missed anything. (I picked up 3 or 4 from your earlier post.) And of course Source and Poll Date would be nice but I can find those myself and it is a lot of work as you have noted previously.
And you need a ping list. People are interested in these polls.
I'm wondering about the northern third of OH. Except for those two Cleveland districts (and even Kucinich betrayed us after promising to vote against Obamacare and caving) I wouldn't be surprised to see a different set of fed-up voters come out to vote this time. Could OH sweep Republican, except for a few urban HOR districts?
Ill certainly keep records of updates between now and my next post. I haven’t really worried about the polling firm because nearly all of them are smaller or local firms; it’s not worth the work if they don’t mean anything to anyone. Almost none of these are done by the big, recognizable names (Gallup, Rasmussen, or even Quinnipiac, Public Policy Polling, etc.) But I’ll note the firms and dates on the updates.
Oh please. We are told every election cycle that this is guaranteed Republican and then it NEVER happens. It started with Ivey and has continued on forever. This by the way is Murtha’s old seat. Every cycle we talk about how this time it will become Republican and then the seat goes Democratic by huge margin. I hope all these seats are not bloated by statistics that show huge Republican gains because if we are using false data we are not going to be happy on 3 November.
This is great news, but this in NOT the end game.
We need to an ongoing “hearts and minds” campaign, because simply getting a Republican congress isn’t going to fix anything, stall the fall maybe, but it won’t fix anything.
We need 67 Senators (not counting RINOS), a House majority, and the White House.
Conservatives need to roll into Nov. 2010 with a four year game plan.
Replace election ads with public service type commercials talking directly about individual liberty, limited government, and fiscal prudence.
We need to make clear that 50 years of run away spending and debt cannot be fixed overnight, nor without a change in attitude.
.....VA 9 Griffith 40, Boucher 50 R+11.....
If the Pubs win this one, there has been a complete rout.
You’re told EVERY election cycle, huh? Wow. That’s amazing, because I’d NEVER seen Murtha polling behind ANY candidate EVER in his ENTIRE career.
This poll was blown earlier this Spring, and yes, it’s actually the same pollster again, too. But there were two super-competitive primaries in Pennsylvania on the date of the special election. The consensus among pollsters was that these resulted in Democrat turnout being much higher than Republican turnout.
>> .....VA 9 Griffith 40, Boucher 50 R+11..... If the Pubs win this one, there has been a complete rout. <<
Well, I found 72 districts MORE likely to flip. And probably dozens without polls, so I’d have to agree with you.
BTW..... your effort is appreciated. Thanks
Perhaps you did not get on the Murtha threads. I don’t know why you never heard of this before. Anyway good luck with getting this district in the red. We need it red badly. My family lives there (cousins, aunts uncles, grandparents). My parents moved to Allentown in 1976 with us kids so obviously I can’t vote in this district, but it always interests me since I visit there so often.
WA-2 - Larsen/Koster is probably from a King 5 TV/Survey USA poll (see post #35):
Yes, it was from SurveyUSA.
Yes, it was from SurveyUSA.
Well you have the Murtha person down pat. lol. Maybe I misunderstood hope for polls. :)
Make it happen folks! This is the tidal wave we have ben waiting for...for years!
I’d be interested in being on a “Ping” list.
This was a lot of work my man; and it is greatly appreciated. Thanks so much.
One of the top clowns, I'll be glad to see this one tossed.
Who can’t love a candidate named “Schweikert?” Well, ok, so there is one letter difference. Still, I’d LOVE to see Dirty Harry Mitchell go down in flames.
Well, I found 72 districts MORE likely to flip. And probably dozens without polls, so Id have to agree with you.
We have VA-09 ranked 67th out of 93 on the Master List Rankings Page and an average rating of Leans D. So is not looking like a pickup at this point. But our list has been continuously moving in the Republican direction and that trend is expected to continue. So stay tuned.
Thanks. If anyone wanted to organize a polling ping list, that’d be great, but I’m not organized enough.
Breaking: Stimulus Funds to be Used for Ministry of Silly Walks
Obama on the economy: I meant to do that.
If the Republicans don't sweep the Democrats and run them out of town on a rail...as so many pundits and pollsters are predicting...this nation is finished. If Obama is left in charge of anything but the White House motor pool this nation is done.
Your very thought here is what scares me half to death. My fear is the Rush listeners are the Glenn Beck army are the take back America crowd are the Palin wave are the town hall din.
If it's all just the same people, there aren't enough of us to do the job. Then we can shift gears toward the academic exercise of discussing how a once great nation that rescued the world...became the world.
Thanks for including VA 9 on your list. I just sent the Republican in this race a contribution (along with the Republican challengers known to have a good chance in this state). The fellow is a very attractive candidate. The Democrat is entrenched, and we might not ever take him out. Years of constituent service have their effect. But, even if we don’t win the seat this year, we must prepare the ground for when the seat comes open.
Well, I guess it does indeed turn out to be, that we are the ones we have been waiting for.
Good job and thank you.
The first of many steps is this November - neuter Obama’s agenda.
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