Posted on 09/08/2010 9:02:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
If this “glass half empty” moron thinks so, it must look pretty good for a republican “takeover”.
I’d say the Repubicans have the same chance of winning the Senate as Secretariat would’ve had against a random collection of horses at a racetrack in a small town.
Good point!
Yes, pictures that would effectively show he was under the sway of the mob when he was called Mr. Cleanface by Joe Agosto. It would also make him not just Dirty Harry but Naughty Harry as well - a big deal for a Mormon in a Mormon state.
Sounds like Harry’s got some ‘splaining to do!
If you look at how they are handicapping the Houuse races, they are showing that the Democrats maintain control by a comfortable margin!
Better yet, please show....pretty please :)
Even if we get them at the same time as the media, it would be great to help spread them around.
Hell! I’ll print ‘em up and poster the town.
Here’s a model for you!
The folks at RealClearPolitics.com have the Senate race at 51 - 49 Dems, with WI and CA tilting R, which would flip the advantage to 51 - 49 Republicans.
If voter turnout in Nevada boots Reid from the Senate, then we’re 52-48 and bulletproof, assuming Graham and McCain get the message that “reaching accross the aisle” is a fools errand.(Maine is hopeless)
-PJ
Intrade is blocked here; can you summarize ?
These two races are special elections to fill vacant seats, which means that the winner is seated immediately, not at the start of the next Congress.
If the Republicans can go into the lame-duck session with 43 votes instead of 41, then they might be in a stronger position to prevent cloture on any of the Democrats' lame-duck legislations that they are reported to try to force on us, such as cap-and-trade or immigration reform.
-PJ
Considering the relatively small number of discrete outcomes, I'm not a particular fan of basing projections solely on the numbers. Informed observation is likely to be more accurate.
There are enough House races to perhaps make a model more worthwhile -- but the problem with the House races is a lack of reliable polling.
That was not a criticism of your modeling, btw, just my general philosophy.
A freakin piece of sandstone could run for Senate here in Washington and say “I have more brains than Patty Murray”.
It wouldn’t be a lie!!
My House model uses polls where they exist, otherwise it uses an average of 6 expert assessments (e.g. Sabato, Cook, RCP, etc.).
Without going into the details of the model, the poll-based models use the gap in polls and the margin of error to determine the winner probabilistically, and then runs many simulations to calculate the overall probability of reaching 51 seats.
If been running the Rasmussen model since early July, and the House model with KHR data going back to May, in order to plot the trends.
-PJ
I just checked the link so you’re saying you can’t access that link? I know I have that problem sometimes when I travel and can’t access sites I normally go to. Check the link again and if you’re blocked from the site I’ll see what I can do.
There’s an arbitrage opportunity at Intrade. They give 60-60.7 for D to control Senate, 27.2-28.8 for R to control Senate, and 15.5-15.7 for neither to control Senate. That adds to 102.7-105.2 percent.
Nope. People putting real money on the line. Oh, the D has 60% to win Pres in 2012. Looks like they’re running Hitlery. Repub at 39%. 150% return in 26 months - take the money and run.
Romney leading candidate at 29-30. Thune at 18. Pawlenty at 11-23. Daniels at 7-10, Huck at 6-7, Jeb at 5-8, Ron Paul at 4-5, Ryan at 3-4, Jindal at 4-5, Gingrich (Gingrich!) at 9-10. Lots of easy money on against.
Palin at 18-19 to take nomination. That’d be a contingent probability of <8% for Palin to be President, or 12-1 against.
It’s difficult to correctly model, where the probabilities are connected, as these most assuredly are. I get about 85% for R control of the House, and about 28% for control of the Senate. If the Rs take the House, I then get 32% for the Senate.
If things move even 1% more to the Rs, I get 40% for the Senate, and 2% gets over 55%. That’s diff 1 and 2, not R up 1-2 and D down 1-2.
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