Skip to comments.Intrade: DE-Sen trading at 20
Posted on 09/16/2010 1:04:31 PM PDT by UndauntedR
Before the primary, this was trading around 85. With O'Donnell, it is now trading at 20. She has a lot of ground to make up.
(Excerpt) Read more at intrade.com ...
isnt Delaware overwhelmingl lib? How much ground can she realistically make up? I’m not trying to be a downer here. The people have spoken and she’s the GOP candidate. I just wonder what kind of chance she has in the general election.
If Castle would have won there would have been a
100% chance we would get a leftist.
Intrade is always 100%!/sarcasm
Which explains why it dropped so much.
Establishment republicans are sooo RADICAL they will align themselves with an admitted marxist in Coons then they would a conservative Republican.
Stay positive. That’s what they said about Scott Brown, who was contesting for Dead Ted’s dedicated seat in Mass. Look at Joe Miller in Alaska. Marco Rubio in Florida.
I believe this is going to be a year for the books.
If you think they aren’t, you can go make some money.
Wow, I didn’t realize DE elections took place on Intrade! If that’s really the case, she DOES have a lot of ground to make up... /sarcasm off
And every other come from behind underdog was at 20 on Intrade at some point.
Yeah - this sounds like easy money. I can guarantee she’ll at least go to 40 before this is over, if not 100.
I'm going "in" on the long side...
Gee, lets not even bother to hold the election!
Stupid question (cause I’ve never been to the site) but does Intrade deal with real money?
Frankly no. She probably won’t win. But the GOP is never going to get anywhere if it has no beliefs. I would much rather have a Democrat hold that office than someone like Castle. If Castle won you would be seeing headlines in the next two years like, “Prominent Republican Senator supports President Obama on .....”.
Screw that. We saw it with Chuck Hagel and it turned my stomach.
Get a clue people! Intrade is nothing more than average Joes reading the CURRENT POLLS and listening to the CURRENT conventional wisdom and then placing bets. IT MEANS SQUAT!
No not true, we would have a senator who likes to reach across the aisle. We also would have great conservative SC justices like Sonia and the man look alike Kagan. Just ask such great Repubs as Graham lugar hagel etc(Sacrasm is obviously not needed)
Yes. It’s a futures market where you can buy and sell contracts on events. Thus, currently the “Vegas odds” of the DE-Sen being held by a Republican, as decided by the market, is currently 20% or 4:1 against.
At the posted volumes, I can make the market go to 88 in favor of Republicans with a $200 purchase of shares.
This is an extremely low volume trade and any action can cause wild swings. There aren’t very many bids or asks posted.
Intrade is only valuable as a gauge of opinion when large numbers of traders and trades are present.
As it stands, fewer than 20 people are making the market on the low, middle and high ends. Would you trust a poll of 20 people to predict the race?
Intrade is real money, but for races like this it is completely worthless. Only 554 “shares” have been traded and only 20 traders are offering propositions.
The market isn’t based on reality, only on a small sample size.
Intrade is worthless. I remember when Scott Brown was clearly making it a race, and Intrade had him at 5. At best, it is a measurement of conventional wisdom.
>>> isn’t Delaware overwhelmingly lib?
Yes, democrat registration advantage better then 2 to 1. Castle with his 52 ACU rating was about as far right as they’d be likely to tolerate. We’ll see.
>>> If Castle would have won there would have been a 100% chance we would get a leftist
An actual leftist doesn’t score a 52 ACU rating. A dem senator endorsed by Obama is more probable to score in the single digits. But it says a lot when so many are too worked up to see the difference.
>>> but does Intrade deal with real money?
Yes. Real money at risk tends to focus the mind. People deal with realities.