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John Paulson's Scary Speech: Double Digit Inflation By 2012, Gold At $4,000
The Business Insider ^ | 9-28-2010 | Courtney Comstock

Posted on 09/28/2010 12:34:11 PM PDT by blam

John Paulson's Scary Speech: Double Digit Inflation By 2012, Gold At $4,000

Courtney Comstock
Sep. 28, 2010, 2:51 PM

John Paulson scared the pants off of a packed audience at New York's University Club recently as he warned them of huge changes in the economic environment in the years to come.

Forbes' Bob Lenzer reports Paulson's saying:

“If you don’t own a home buy one."

”If you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”

Paulson has been bullish on housing for a while now (he runs a housing recovery fund), but this is him hitting super-bull territory. His reasoning is that home prices are great, the bond market is dead, and commodities like gold, which he also has a big prediction for, are on the rise.

According to InfoWars, he told the audience that he thinks the price of gold will hit $2400-$4000. And a whopping 80% of his assets are in gold.

Given his expectation for further money printing by the Fed – and that in 1980 the gold price rose by 100% more than the correlation implied – Paulson noted that the price of gold could hit $2,400 based only on monetary expansion, and as high as $4,000 per ounce based on a projected overshoot.

Lastly, he noted that 80% of his assets are denominated in gold.

[snip]

Paulson sees coming:

* Low double-digit inflation by 2012, killing the bond market, and restoring strength to equities and gold.
* 2% GDP growth for 2011 and 2012
* Gold hitting $2,400 to $4,000

It's worth noting that if gold goes to $4,000, Paulson will be a top contender for the richest man in the world.

[snip]

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: deflation; economy; gold; hyperinflation; inflation; silver
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I don't know what to believe anymore.
1 posted on 09/28/2010 12:34:22 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

I’m glad my grandfather bought me a little gold when I was born as opposed to stocks. I just wish I hadn’t gotten so many thirty year bonds. By the time I can cash them out they’ll be play money.


2 posted on 09/28/2010 12:37:00 PM PDT by utherdoul
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To: blam

remember that those dollars will be inflated dollars, it doesn’t mean the gold will be worth more.


3 posted on 09/28/2010 12:37:24 PM PDT by GeronL (http://libertyfic.proboards.com <--- My Fiction/ Science Fiction Board)
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To: blam

ping


4 posted on 09/28/2010 12:37:33 PM PDT by unkus
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To: blam
Lastly, he noted that 80% of his assets are denominated in gold.

Ahh.. the money line. Of course.

5 posted on 09/28/2010 12:37:59 PM PDT by ScottinVA (The West needs to act NOW to aggressively treat its metastasizing islaminoma!)
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To: blam

I’ll bet he sells before $2400 and laughs when the price plummets.


6 posted on 09/28/2010 12:39:32 PM PDT by Seruzawa (If you agree with the French raise your hand - If you are French raise both hands.)
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To: GeronL

Discounted cash flow.


7 posted on 09/28/2010 12:39:46 PM PDT by Boardwalk
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To: blam

That’s because you read too much from blogs whose purpose for existance is to scare you into investing in whatever they are pushing or getting kickbacks from.

Who is John Paulson, btw?


8 posted on 09/28/2010 12:39:53 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: blam

They’re just getting scared NOW? I’ve been terrified since 2008.


9 posted on 09/28/2010 12:41:16 PM PDT by Silentgypsy
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To: blam

BTW, why would anybody who thinks gold is going to double in the near term TELL YOU?

Unless, of course, they are already fully invested, and now just need enough new buyers to drive the price up so they can sell later.

Just imagine the day that it gets announced that a major gold hawk has sold off their gold.


10 posted on 09/28/2010 12:41:42 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: GeronL
remember that those dollars will be inflated dollars, it doesn’t mean the gold will be worth more.

Yes but the debt I have now in dollars is not going to change as long as I don't add to it and I can pay it off with the money from my investment in gold.

11 posted on 09/28/2010 12:42:07 PM PDT by bkepley
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To: blam

Believe in Him and His divine Providence. It seems to work for my family. Of course, you are expected to pull your weight, so to speak. just a bit of Christian insight.


12 posted on 09/28/2010 12:42:25 PM PDT by BudgieRamone (Gimmie back my bullets.... ain't gonna see no more damage done.)
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To: blam

Paulson is very sharp. He shorted the whole housing this. He, Soros, JC Flowers and others helped elect Obama with the short/bear attack in the late summer of 2008.


13 posted on 09/28/2010 12:42:38 PM PDT by Frantzie (Imam Ob*m* & Democrats support the VICTORY MOSQUE & TV supports Imam)
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To: blam
I don't know what to believe anymore.

Neither do I. But the uncertainty is one reason I don't want to see Republicans win BOTH house of Congress this year. We can slow/stop the progress toward total disaster with one house. Two will not help and will give Obama and the rats too easy a target to blame in 2012. Keep it at one and finish the job with Congress and the President in 2012.

14 posted on 09/28/2010 12:44:17 PM PDT by CedarDave (Ten-year anniversary - proudly Freeping since Aug 17, 2000)
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To: Silentgypsy

Good. You should buy stock when you’re scared.


15 posted on 09/28/2010 12:45:27 PM PDT by RexBeach ("There is no such thing as a good tax." Winston Churchill)
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To: CharlesWayneCT
Who is John Paulson, btw?

A formerly mid-size hedge fund manager of several decades experience who bet very big on a collapse in housing and housing related debt instruments. He made billions for himself and his investors.

16 posted on 09/28/2010 12:48:12 PM PDT by Pearls Before Swine
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To: CharlesWayneCT
Please.

Will you go post your own threads and stop whining about mine.
This is the 3rd consecutive day you've whined on my threads.

Thank You.

17 posted on 09/28/2010 12:48:37 PM PDT by blam
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To: GeronL

Gold will hold it’s value as the dollars become worthless. I am not a gold bug.

Thanks to idiots who watch TV which enables the muslim and Islam - the U.S. dollar and probably America are finished. The elites and Islamics can control the idiot masses with TV. Sports fan idiots are the easiest sheep to control in between the “dumb white guy” commercials.


18 posted on 09/28/2010 12:52:36 PM PDT by Frantzie (Imam Ob*m* & Democrats support the VICTORY MOSQUE & TV supports Imam)
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To: blam

Ok, here’s my question. If gold is going to be the substitute for currency as they claim, then why would those selling gold take the worthless currency for it?


19 posted on 09/28/2010 12:58:56 PM PDT by Samizdat
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To: blam
"he runs a housing recovery fund" "he noted that 80% of his assets are denominated in gold." LOL! No doubt his predictions are completely impartial though.
20 posted on 09/28/2010 1:01:23 PM PDT by Pessimist
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To: Samizdat

you are wise, grasshopper

who are all those gold hoarders going to trade with?

maybe people who have food, toilet paper, and whiskey to sell

blessed are the cheesemakers

buy booze - poor man’s gold- and you can drink it whether inflation hits or not


21 posted on 09/28/2010 1:05:23 PM PDT by silverleaf (The lesser of two evils is still evil.)
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To: bkepley

Or just pay off the fixed debt with the double-digit inflated dollars....


22 posted on 09/28/2010 1:07:33 PM PDT by rocket002 (99% of Democrats give the rest a bad name.)
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To: blam
You made the following comment:

I don't know what to believe anymore.

I gave you a reason why you might be confused. If you don't want feedback, you probably shouldn't post threads. If you don't want people to comment on your statements, you probably shouldn't make them in a place where the purpose is to have people comment.

My comment was a direct response to your comment, explaining why I thought you were confused. I know I'd be confused if I got all my market advice from the sources you keep posting.

23 posted on 09/28/2010 1:09:17 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: blam
Low double-digit inflation by 2012 sounds about right to me. Coupled with the Obama-crippled economy, it will bring back Carter era “stagflation”.
24 posted on 09/28/2010 1:11:36 PM PDT by BenLurkin (This post is not a statement of fact. It is merely a personal opinion -- or humor -- or both.)
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To: bkepley
Yes but the debt I have now in dollars is not going to change as long as I don't add to it and I can pay it off with the money from my investment in gold.

Actually, with today's interest rates it would be crazy NOT to go deeper into debt if double-digit inflation is coming.

25 posted on 09/28/2010 1:12:42 PM PDT by wagglebee ("A political party cannot be all things to all people." -- Ronald Reagan, 3/1/75)
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To: rocket002
Or just pay off the fixed debt with the double-digit inflated dollars....

Hence the gold I own now, some of which is converted to inflated dollars to pay off the debt.

26 posted on 09/28/2010 1:14:28 PM PDT by bkepley
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To: Pearls Before Swine

Ah, he’s the guy that got all the money that everybody else lost betting that housing would never go down.

He’s having a bad year, from what I understand, except his gold investments have done OK:

“FORTUNE — It’s tough to be the king. John Paulson, current monarch of hedge funds, is having a challenging year, according to recent press reports. Bloomberg News recently reported that Paulson’s $9 billion Advantage fund was down 5.8% in the first six months of the year. His Advantage Plus fund was down 8.8%. And while his Recovery fund was reportedly up through June, it suffered a 12.4% decline that month. The lone bright spot: his gold fund, up 13% for the year.”

But that’s the nature of contrarian bets. You only need to hit a couple of times and it won’t matter how often you fail.

It will be interesting to see if housing really is at bottom and ready to shoot up, or not. I guess the point is that if inflation is about to run wild, it’s good to own physical assets like housing. Or cans of food.


27 posted on 09/28/2010 1:16:18 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: wagglebee
Actually, with today's interest rates it would be crazy NOT to go deeper into debt if double-digit inflation is coming.

No thanks...I have enough already and there might not be an inflation. Right now I'm up about 40% with the gold which ain't bad and I'll probably sell it all if it gets to 2000.00 because I can't predict the future.

28 posted on 09/28/2010 1:20:37 PM PDT by bkepley
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To: bkepley
No thanks...I have enough already and there might not be an inflation.

Thanks for making my point.

Everyone is talking like massive inflation is coming, but nobody is actually acting like it.

Right now I'm up about 40% with the gold which ain't bad and I'll probably sell it all if it gets to 2000.00 because I can't predict the future.

Adjusted for inflation, the folks who bought gold in January of 1980 would still be in the hole at $2k an ounce.

I think it's entirely possible that the current gold market is about to be exposed as the biggest scam in history. Nearly all gold bought and sold today is certificates, most people are just taking someone's word that the gold exists. And gold is very easy to buy, yet we're told it's rare -- the irony is that it really can't be both. If gold is as rare as they claim, brokers shouldn't be able to even come close to meeting demand.

29 posted on 09/28/2010 1:26:47 PM PDT by wagglebee ("A political party cannot be all things to all people." -- Ronald Reagan, 3/1/75)
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To: wagglebee

Well I certainly did not buy in 1980 and only a short time ago and only a small amount. I had a little extra due to a death in the family and was first going to buy GE stock, which I had owned in the past when it was doing well. I’m very glad I chose the gold for now.


30 posted on 09/28/2010 1:33:53 PM PDT by bkepley
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To: bkepley

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not criticizing you (I own some gold as well). But I’m also worried about the gold market overall.

On the one hand, it’s odd to see both supply and demand so high, especially with the fact that NOBODY can actually say how much there is; I can do research and in a couple seconds figure out how many shares of outstanding stock there are in a XZY Corp. and it’s easy to verify that a stock certificate is legitimate, but that is impossible with gold. It’s entirely possible that a lot of the gold that has been bought the past few years is nothing more than worthless paper.

On the other hand, look at diamonds, it is an accepted fact that the supply of gem-quality diamonds FAR EXCEEDS what is in circulation. But it’s controlled by a cartel and they have a vested interest in keeping supply down, because demand is fairly predictable. But what if demand for diamonds were to skyrocket in a short period and they just decided to flood the market at the highest prices ever? The diamond cartel could effectively cash out and people would own a lot of beautiful diamond jewelry that was now worth a fraction of what they paid for it. What if world supplies of gold are 50 or a 100 times what people believe and a consortium has been hording it for a century or more? What happens then?


31 posted on 09/28/2010 1:48:04 PM PDT by wagglebee ("A political party cannot be all things to all people." -- Ronald Reagan, 3/1/75)
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To: utherdoul

You can’t sell them?


32 posted on 09/28/2010 1:56:46 PM PDT by Darth Reardon (Some politely call me free)
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To: CharlesWayneCT
"My favorite comment from this quasi-blogging semi-sales-pitch somewhat-snake-oil site:"

This is your whining earlier today on another thread I posted. If you so hate the sites that I post from, why do you show up and often start whining?

Why don't you get off your butt and post something yourself?

Your whining is adolescent and irritating, like a little girl.

Go away.

33 posted on 09/28/2010 2:01:14 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Yes, that was a post from a different thread, about a different article you posted. It was a comment about the article you posted, based on a comment I read at the site you linked.

Again, if you don’t want people to make their own opinionated comments about what you post, you probably should not post them to a site that exists for people to make comments about what you post.

As to why I don’t post things, I do when nobody else has posted a story that I find interesting and that seems to be in line with the express purpose of this site to advance the conservative cause.

We certainly don’t need more people posting for the sake of posting — I think you are doing a fine enough job at that for at least a dozen freepers.

It’s almost a shame they can’t give you a tool that would just let you hit a button and post every article from the blogs you follow — I imagine it takes you a bit of time to enter each of them every day.

BTW, I don’t understand why you would be upset about my attacks on some web site you post information from. It’s not like I’m attacking anything you are saying, right?

It’s not like it’s your web site, or that you are the author of the stuff I am ridiculing. You are just the person who posted it so we could discuss it.

As to your comment “If you so hate the sites I post from”, well I hate the New York Times, but that doesn’t stop freepers from posting things from the NYTimes, or me from commenting about how stupid the people are that write for the NY Times.

In fact, most of the political postings around here are from people and sites we dislike, and we all mock the postings and the papers and whatever else we feel like mocking.

Which again makes me wonder why you think that nobody should mock the stuff you post, or why you are so upset that I choose to hold a negative opinion about the value of what the people say in some of the articles you post.


34 posted on 09/28/2010 2:21:51 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: GeronL

not exactly correct

although gold could move from $1300 to $4000, and the dollar had devalued thereby resulting in radically increased prices for everything. this would mean that gas would jump from $2.50/gal to about $7.50/gal. then again, salaries could jump from an average of $50,000/yr to roughly $150,000/yr. all this due to the radically reduced value of the dollar.

of course, fixed debts secured PRIOR to the inflation would not change.

thus, if you were to grab a 30 yr note NOW for $500,000 @ 5%, you would be paying $2,684/mon. this might seem tough when only making $50,000/yr now, or about $4,166/mon. but if your salary were to increase with inflation, it would be around $150,000/yr, or $12,500/mon. this would make paying your fixed rate mortgage fairly simple.

all assuming you could still find work as companies would be struggling to find enough capital to operate.

which is when the problems really start...


35 posted on 09/28/2010 2:24:26 PM PDT by sten
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To: wagglebee
What if world supplies of gold are 50 or a 100 times what people believe and a consortium has been hording it for a century or more? What happens then?

Or what happens if someone discovers a huge new supply of gold somewhere? Or develops a better way of mining that makes it easy to extract gold from mines that were otherwise abandoned as unprofitable (especially since if the price goes up, those unprofitable mines can be profitable again).

I would tend to doubt anybody could keep a huge supply of gold secret. They haven't really kept the diamond supply secret, they simply have an iron fist on everybody who could possibly get to the raw diamonds, and I'd hate to be the person who tried to break that embargo.

36 posted on 09/28/2010 2:25:16 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: sten

salaries will not keep up with inflation, especially on the lower end where it will lag greatly


37 posted on 09/28/2010 2:27:52 PM PDT by GeronL (http://libertyfic.proboards.com <--- My Fiction/ Science Fiction Board)
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To: wagglebee
I think it's entirely possible that the current gold market is about to be exposed as the biggest scam in history. Nearly all gold bought and sold today is certificates, most people are just taking someone's word that the gold exists. And gold is very easy to buy, yet we're told it's rare -- the irony is that it really can't be both. If gold is as rare as they claim, brokers shouldn't be able to even come close to meeting demand.

whoa, you really seem like a flat earth type.

people that buy gold, often resell all or portions of it. this is not uncommon.

as for being able to keep up with demand... that is why the price is $1300 per ounce. a single coin is now valued at $1300. not because some 'evil rich guy' says so, but because of supply and demand. the demand is up, therefore the price goes up as the supply is finite.

also, please, at least read the wiki before spouting: wiki: gold

from the wiki:
"A total of 165,000 tonnes of gold have been mined in human history, as of 2009.[1] This is roughly equivalent to 5.3 billion troy ounces or, in terms of volume, about 8,500 cubic meters, or a 20.4m cube."

that's about 5.3 billion 1 ounce gold coins, which would be worth $6.9 trillion today. more than enough to handle consumer demand (big banks and government buyers are the ones pushing the value of gold up as they scamper to unwind their dollars into something more stable/secure)

38 posted on 09/28/2010 2:41:52 PM PDT by sten
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To: CharlesWayneCT
"Which again makes me wonder why you think that nobody should mock the stuff you post, or why you are so upset that I choose to hold a negative opinion about the value of what the people say in some of the articles you post."

You say the same thing everyday about the same sites...as if no-one read it yesterday or the day before.

After a while it seems the intent is to disrupt.

Why not let the reader make his own judgement about the quality of the article or the publishing site?

39 posted on 09/28/2010 2:47:34 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Jim Rogers was saying over a year ago that there were going to be food shortages and commodities were going to be precious. He also recommended buying farmland and just recently another money guy was recommending the same thing.

I’ve been watching the commodities lately and it is amazing how much they have gained but I don’t know if it is money games or if companies are actually taking delivery of the product.


40 posted on 09/28/2010 2:50:43 PM PDT by tiki
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To: GeronL

Yes and no, if it keeps up with inflation then it will at least keep its worth and a heckuva lot better than US dollars.


41 posted on 09/28/2010 2:52:26 PM PDT by tiki
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To: silverleaf

Well, since I don’t drink and therefore wouldn’t use alcohol in hard times, I have the toilet paper.


42 posted on 09/28/2010 2:57:14 PM PDT by tiki
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To: GeronL

as companies struggle to keep afloat without the necessary capital, more and more people will become unemployed... driving up the ‘supply’ of available workers... while the ‘demand’ for workers decreases... resulting in reduced wages.

it depends on what type of skills you have.

of course, if you happened to pick up 200 ounces of gold in 2003, costing you about $60k, it would be worth about $800k if gold were to reach $4,000/oz. selling off a portion of the gold to pay off your debts would be an excellent move.

that... and moving to where the money is.

hong kong, japan, or the middle east (i predict north & south america, africa, europe and the former soviet states to all be broke... yea! socialism!!)


43 posted on 09/28/2010 2:58:19 PM PDT by sten
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To: wagglebee

I am already deep in debt, we had to remortgage our farms again in early 2009, we owe almost double on them than what we paid for them, LOL. It is the life of a farmer, we should have had the first farm paid for 20 years ago. You live poor and die rich...if you can hold on.

My concern is that we can get some of our inputs before inflation gets out of hand and then sell our products at the inflated prices.


44 posted on 09/28/2010 3:03:11 PM PDT by tiki
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To: utherdoul
I just wish I hadn’t gotten so many thirty year bonds.

If they're any good they can probably sold at a premium. Don't know how you would be affected by capital gains (not a CPA or doctor) but I doubt the tax rate is going to be this low much longer. At least, get yourself to a CPA.

45 posted on 09/28/2010 3:03:27 PM PDT by Stentor ( "All cults of personality begin as high drama and end as low comedy.")
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To: sten

My brother did that. He started buying gold at the beginning of Bush Jrs. first term and just kept adding and adding.

Since I couldn’t afford gold I bought silver and not that much.


46 posted on 09/28/2010 3:07:07 PM PDT by tiki
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To: Frantzie
The elites and Islamics can control the idiot masses with TV. Sports fan idiots are the easiest sheep to control in between the “dumb white guy” commercials.

I love unintentional irony.

47 posted on 09/28/2010 3:07:34 PM PDT by Stentor ( "All cults of personality begin as high drama and end as low comedy.")
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To: Pessimist

Or, you might say he is putting his money where his mouth is. Guess it depends in part on when and how he exits these investments.


48 posted on 09/28/2010 3:20:43 PM PDT by liberlog
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To: Stentor

Go play with your clicker dhimini. You have no idea who has shareholdings in the TV networks or the deals.

Fox’s biggest shareholder is providing millions fro the Victory Mosque and his uncle is behind all the money for every Mosque builty in western countries.


49 posted on 09/28/2010 3:39:17 PM PDT by Frantzie (Imam Ob*m* & Democrats support the VICTORY MOSQUE & TV supports Imam)
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To: bkepley

General Eletric is a bag of s**t and is very close with the Saudis. This is why they spew their pro-left pro-islamic BS. Uncle Sam Obama backed GE’s debt because it was going to get attacked by credit default swap shorts and would have become insolvent. If interest rates go up - GE is dead meat.


50 posted on 09/28/2010 3:43:05 PM PDT by Frantzie (Imam Ob*m* & Democrats support the VICTORY MOSQUE & TV supports Imam)
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