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Martinez Pushing Toward 'Magic Number' (New Mexico)
Albuquerque Journal ^ | 10/3/2010 | Sean Olson

Posted on 10/03/2010 9:40:54 AM PDT by woofie

Republican gubernatorial nominee Susana Martinez is nearing the "magic number" of 50 percent support among likely New Mexico voters, with a month left before the Nov. 2 election, a new Journal Poll found.

Martinez apparently led Democrat Diane Denish by 6 points in the survey overall — 47 percent to 41 percent with 12 percent undecided if the election were held at the time of the Sept. 27-30 poll.

Her lead grew to 49 percent to 42 percent when "leaners" — undecided voters leaning toward voting for one candidate — were included and was even wider, at 49 percent to 39 percent, among those surveyed who voted in both the 2006 and 2008 general elections.

Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff says those regular voters are the most likely to participate in this year's general election.

"When one looks deeper into the numbers, Susana's lead tends to increase," Sanderoff said.

Midterm elections, such as this year's, historically have lower turnouts than presidential elections, Sanderoff said, and that means Denish could lose some support from Democratic voters, who outnumber Republicans and independents in New Mexico, if they don't turn out.

"If turnout is low in this election, then Martinez's lead will widen," he said. "For Denish to narrow this gap, her campaign must increase the turnout of at-risk Democratic voters significantly."

A Journal Poll taken one month ago also found Martinez apparently leading, 45 percent to 39 percent.

Sanderoff said Martinez is edging closer to the 50 percent mark, called the "magic number" because exceeding 50 percent support on Election Day means that candidate wins.

"When you get close to 50 percent, with 12 percent of voters undecided, it's a good place to be," Sanderoff said, referring to Martinez.

(Excerpt) Read more at abqjournal.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Politics/Elections; US: New Mexico
KEYWORDS: martinez
This is a subscription only site but if you watch an ad you can read the rest
1 posted on 10/03/2010 9:40:57 AM PDT by woofie
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To: woofie

In the past New Mexico has been seen as a bell-weather state ...as its gone back and forth between Rep and Dem

I think Bill Richardson may have put a stop to that for a while


2 posted on 10/03/2010 9:45:50 AM PDT by woofie
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To: CedarDave

ping


3 posted on 10/03/2010 10:20:58 AM PDT by woofie
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To: woofie

It looks like the RGA’s membership list will be a lot longer in 2011.

- JP


4 posted on 10/03/2010 10:27:30 AM PDT by Josh Painter ("Conservatism is not a candidate. It's a movement." - Jeffrey Lord)
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To: woofie

Great news (don’t get complacent) keep working hard!


5 posted on 10/03/2010 10:32:00 AM PDT by JSDude1 (Battle Ground Vermont..if we make Leahy a toss-up then all Dems are in trouble..)
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To: woofie

I won’t miss Bill Richardson.

Will NObama make him Sec Def?

Liberals cannot let a career politico just retire.


6 posted on 10/03/2010 11:28:56 AM PDT by ridesthemiles
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To: woofie

Susana has this one nailed. It is interesting to see an abundance of Susana Martinez signs and stickers in Rio Arriba County, where the ratio of Democrats to Republicans is something like 85/15. The Democrasses seem somewhat disinterested this election cycle.


7 posted on 10/03/2010 11:45:31 AM PDT by pallis
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