Skip to comments.Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 45%, Democrats 42%
Posted on 10/04/2010 12:17:03 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush
Republican candidates now hold a three-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 3, 2010. This is the smallest gap between parties in roughly a year.
Forty-five percent (45%) of respondents say they would vote for their districts Republican congressional candidate, while 42% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. This is the first time during 2010 that the GOP edge has fallen below five points.
Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year, and it has run as high as 12 points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold an 18-point lead.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
extremely depressing numbers. I wish there was somewhere else to go but we were the last hope for humankind. I fear for the future of my children everyday.
It’s hard to imagine that 10% of those polled have changed their minds about Obamacare (around 60% down to 50%) in two weeks. However, it may be that Democrats are successfully motivating their base to vote. So, the pool of likely voters is growing with addition of more democrats.
The “generic” republicans are getting less generic now. And there isn’t much to see there.
And the Dems and their cohorts still have plenty of money for campaign ads.
There is no reason to believe the electorate is any smarter now than they were 2 years ago. And more of them are on the dole now.
The waves of attack ads and lies from the left have drawn blood, unfortunately. Pundits can say all they want about “voters tiring of character attacks, etc.,” but the fact is... negative ads work.
Races tightened because of what? What has improved the Dems chances in the last month? What have they done?
I think this is another Dem oversample.
“It is either a bad sample, or the race has significantly tightened.”
#1 - Republicans have hurt their image. GWB and the compassionate Republicans branded Republicans as Democrat lite.
#2 - Politicans have shown themselves to be mercenaries, not people of principle. More so now than in the recent past. Spector, Crist, Lieberman.
#3 - Many people who said they would vote R this time are either Democrats or Independants. It’s coming down to the wire, they’re getting cold feet. They’ll do what they always did, blindly vote D.
#4 - In general, the American public is uninformed, and lacks critical thinking skills.
I believe this poll, and fully expect that November won’t be all we wished for.
In addition to negative ads working, it appears the dems’ masters have called their sheep home to the pasture. No more independent thinking.. it’s all about the Party now.
Weekend polling heavily favors (D)..................
It is time to fight, not get depressed. Surely you did not think that the democratic base would remain so unmotivated. They have been there all along but not as “likely voters”
It will be up by 8% in a week or two
The problem for the Dems is that they have to defend some 50 seats in otherwise red districts. I don’t think that they will be able to do that. Some deep blue districts may be getting even bluer, but that isn’t going to help them hold control.
That percent is way too high, on the leftist side!
I don’t believe the polls...I believe the Dems are now using them as campaign tools and have thoroughly infiltrated this “media” market.
Why kid ourselves? America is lost forever.
I'll bet you 5 bucks the tsunami happens... do you have Paypal so you can pay me?
Forever is a long time
First, people started to really pay attention to their own races. Second, the Dhims started to campaign. This means they offer competing narrative and attacking the Republican candidates relentlessly. With a help from their MSM friends, it shouldn't be surprising that the races are tightened. Finally, we need to adjust our own expectations. Many of them are based on surveys taken in or before Summer when opposition to HC was at its peak.
Agreed, short of a major game changer like a world war, massive global disaster or massive earth event.
Radiation is the only cure...preferably from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
I just received this in an email the other day. It’s an indication of why we still need to worry about this election. The Democrats will pull every dirty trick in the book.
Right to Work on TV: SEIU’s Crooked Political Fundraising Scheme
Last week, I appeared on the Fox Business Channel to discuss the Obama Federal Election Commission’s (FEC) refusal to investigate the radical Service Employees International Union (SEIU) for its shady political fundraising scheme.
Before the 2008 elections, the SEIU amended its constitution to require local affiliate unions to meet an annual fundraising obligation to the SEIU’s political action committee (PAC) under the threat of heavy fines.
But federal election law requires that PAC contributions must be 100 percent voluntary, and unions cannot funnel cash from their general treasuries into a PAC.
Foundation attorneys filed a complaint with the FEC later that year but were only notified 23 days after the FEC quietly dismissed the complaint this spring. Stonewalling even further, the FEC only released its reasoning 111 days after that — well after the 60-day window period in which Foundation attorneys could appeal.
Meanwhile, the SEIU’s PAC has already disbursed over $21 million this election cycle, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg for the union bosses’ electioneering.
I hope you are correct.
60 to 100 seats in the House
Take back the Senate
My oh my how things have changed! Nine months ago it was "going to be a rout", then it became "an unfair contest", soon after it became "probable that conservatives would win both houses", then "probably that conservatives would win a narrow margin in the House...then recently it became " a real toss up"....and now, it's "little probability that conservatives will win either chamber at all".
Seems the "fire in the belly" turned out to be nothing but gas....as it usually does.
More's the pity too!
“I’ll bet you 5 bucks the tsunami happens... do you have Paypal so you can pay me?”
Define tsunami. Can’t make bets on terms, numbers please?
Also be aware, I’m rooting for the tsunami as much as anyone. It’s like when I bet against the Browns, most times I win money. But, once in a while, I wouldn’t mind losing a few bucks.
All polling outfits are going to tighten up their propaganda until just before the election... they cannot sell any polling data if it appears to be a blowout election.
Perhaps the “community organizer” is proving successful to remind his followers they have to go back and vote again, to keep the stuff government is doling out to them under Obama and his dems.
I don’t see genuine “middle of the roaders” and “inependents” being swayed by his overtures. Just the minority takers class, who showed up in DC and left the mess for others to clean up.
This fellow needs some of your magic Jim.
That’s why I support space colonization...
Wow. Way to blow your head off in such dramatic fashion.
Now that you are done calling races based on generic ballot polls, people can now go vote district by district, like we’ve done the past 200 + years.
This is why I’ve been discounting Dick Morris’ rosy predictions of a “tsunami,” “wipeout,” etc. for the dems. It’s always far too easy to forget the dems have the media, unions, illegals and most judges in their back pocket.
We’re going to see some gains for the GOP in November, but far fewer than hoped. One should always manage expectations of American voters, because they have an enormous propensity for stupidity at critical moments. It’s akin to running backwards and taking a safety when a winning touchdown is a near-gimme.
I still think the GOP gets the House and about 49 in the Senate, that holds with what the individual polls suggest.
The liberals’ dumbing down and inculcation of a dependency mentality in the electorate is nearly complete.
That would be incredible but very unrealistic especially the senate.
Nobody but Dick Morris said the Senate was in play until July, and nobody even now is saying the House will stay Dem aside from Democrats themselves.
Honestly, I did. Naive of me to think people were becoming more informed and realizing what Obama gives is not what we need.
Im trying to remember that there will be a huge psychological war going on in the media to deter our enthusiasm, we should be very cautious of everything coming out.
So do I. Sometimes I think we may be better off not giving the rats the advantage of scapegoating the Republicans for their failures. Let them totally collapse and take ALL the blame and get rid of the rest of the rats along with obama in 2012.
I trust Rasmussen pretty well. I think this is something of a statistical outlier. It’s bound to happen from time to time.
There have been some positive reports on Obamacare, but I don’t think that changed six percent of minds over a few days.
The more important number is the 18% gap among independents. People are abandoning the Democrat and Republican parties and labels. I think if Ras is missing anything, he might be slightly behind the shift from Repub/Rat to Independent in his sampling. That’s where the fault line is, and that’s where the Big One will hit.
If the Dems recover and hold the House, it will be a “mandate” for accelerating Socialism/Fascism and a disaster that is “historic” and “unprecedented”.
“Its hard to imagine that 10% of those polled have changed their minds about Obamacare (around 60% down to 50%) in two weeks.”
Let’s not forget that Ras underestimated Scott Brown’s surge by at least 3 or 4 points. Do that in this case (also think about the MoE) and you have 48 - 39 or 49 - 38.
In any case, because the pollsters tend to oversample RATS, we’re still in good shape.
Just my take.
This should inspire us to GOTV!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Do not take anything for granted.
Is one of the questions by the pollster "Are you planning on sitting this one out?"There are several questions, actually, that pollsters ask to determine how "likely" someone is to vote. For instance, one is always, "Did you vote in 2008?" if they were eligible to vote, and "Have you been following the race between _________ and __________ for the senate?" or whatever race they are polling about.
I have paypal, I’ll take that bet.
Your optimism is very much appreciated.
I am a little worried at these numbers. Rasmussen is a reputable pollster. The nationwide stuff is spot on. State by state, more deviation from final results, but generally, they pick the winner.
But, you can almost bet that a 3 point game is where it sits AT THIS MOMENT.
Let’s hope the GOP picks up 3 or 4 somehow before Nov. 2. Then the blowout you envision could happen....
“There is no reason to believe the electorate is any smarter now than they were 2 years ago. And more of them are on the dole now.”
Less of the dummies will be voting 11/2 though. And more of us. Plus the 18 point advantage among indies.
It’s only a matter of how LARGE a SMACKDOWN.
This should motivate us to GOTV!!!