Fomr the Rossman Groups Release:
Dingell Slightly Trailing Steele
Race within the margin, but Dean of the House behind
LANSING, Mich. In what is perceived as an anti-incumbent year, Congressman John Dingell (D-MI) the longest-serving member of the U.S. House of Representatives slightly trails his Republican opponent Rob Steele. A new, independent poll shows 43.8 percent choosing Steele, 39.5 percent Dingell, 11 percent undecided, and the other candidates splitting up the rest.
With more than 50 years of service in Congress, Dingell may be the poster boy for many dissatisfied voters who are gunning for incumbents this year, said Kelly Rossman-McKinney, CEO and founder of The Rossman Group which conducted the survey in partnership with Team TelCom. The Dean of the House will be tough to beat, but these numbers show that at this point, even The Dean is not immune to the anger that is brewing with the electorate.
Dingell and Steele both carry about three quarters of their respective party supporters, but Dingell trails 31.7 percent to fifty percent amongst Independent voters and by nearly 80 points amongst those who consider themselves Tea Party supporters. Steele is ahead 46.7 percent to 37.9 percent amongst voters 65 and older, and the only age group Dingell leads in is the 30-45 category. Men prefer Steele by a 54.4 to 31.6 margin, while women choose Dingell 46.9 to 33.8 percent.
The automated poll, conducted October 4, surveyed 400 likely voters in Michigans 15th Congressional District on the contest and has a margin of error of +/- 5.6%. The weekly survey of 400 likely voters statewide on Michigans races for Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General was also conducted on October 4th. The results of the questions on statewide races are attached and charts showing the progress over the last several weeks are attached:
Rick Snyder 53%
Virg Bernero 30.5%
Secretary of State
Ruth Johnson 47%
Jocelyn Benson 30.8%
Bill Schuette 47%
David Leyton 29%
Republicans continue to hold considerable leads in all of the statewide races, as has been the case since the weekly polling began over six weeks ago. One trend to monitor in the Governors race is that this weeks results are the third in a row where there has been a slight uptick in the number of undecideds and small drop in support for Snyder, however, Bernero does not appear to be benefiting directly from this subtle movement since he remains hovering at 30 percent.
The flood of ads Democrats have tried to dump into this race to prop up Bernero may be having a tiny effect, but is it enough and is there enough time for them to decide its worth staying the course?, said Rossman-McKinney. Considering the static nature of the Secretary of State and Attorney General numbers, Democrats will need to pour a lot of resources into these races if they hope to use them as a firewall as many observers expect.
How can any incumbent win with 39.5% of the vote at this point? The rule of thumb was that if the incumbent was under 50%, he was in deep trouble. Under 40% would mean he was toast.