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Experts Say The ‘Big One’ Will Be Even Bigger
CBS) ^ | October 10, 2010 9:35 AM

Posted on 10/10/2010 1:12:43 PM PDT by BenLurkin

The 340-mile, southern section of the San Andreas fault could slip at anytime, triggering a massive, magnitude 8.1 quake, researchers announced Sunday.

A report in the August issue of Geology by researchers at UC Irvine and Arizona State University suggest the fault is long overdue for a major quake — running from Monterey County to the Salton Sea, the Los Angeles Times reported.

The last major rupture on the San Andreas was in 1857.

Until recently, experts believed that the section of the fault through the Carrizo Plain, located approximately 100 miles northwest of Los Angeles, would remain dormant for at least another century.

Not according to the latest research.

“The next earthquake could be sooner than later,” said Lisa Grant Ludwig of UC Irvine, who helped write the study.

U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Lucy Jones, who was not involved in the study, said it was possible that the entire southern San Andreas fault could rupture.

Thomas Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, calculated that would produce a magnitude-8.1 quake. Jones said that figure sounds about right.

The northern section of the fault, which begins north of Parkfield and ends in San Benito County, tends to move at a constant creep. And because stress is relieved regularly, large quakes don’t occur there, The Times reported.

(Excerpt) Read more at losangeles.cbslocal.com ...


TOPICS: US: California
KEYWORDS: bigone; catastrophism; earthquake; sanandreas; socal

1 posted on 10/10/2010 1:12:45 PM PDT by BenLurkin
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To: BenLurkin

2 posted on 10/10/2010 1:24:08 PM PDT by MrEdd (Heck? Geewhiz Cripes, thats the place where people who don't believe in Gosh think they aint going.8)
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To: BenLurkin

There could be a 10.0 anywhere else in California but if it doesn’t happen in LA it won’t be called the ‘Big One’.


3 posted on 10/10/2010 1:26:25 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: skeeter

They;re talking about Nov 2, right?


4 posted on 10/10/2010 1:27:01 PM PDT by max americana (Hoax and Chains, Dopeychangey)
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To: BenLurkin

If Pelosi can be anywhere near it, and fall into a giant fissure never to be seen again, I’m ok with that.


5 posted on 10/10/2010 1:27:32 PM PDT by Keith in Iowa (FR Class of 1998 | TV News is an oxymoron. | MSNBC = Moonbats Spouting Nothing But Crap.)
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To: BenLurkin
“The next earthquake could be sooner than later,” said Lisa Grant Ludwig of UC Irvine, who helped write the study.

And to think that we pay people for this "brilliant" bull$#!t !!!

6 posted on 10/10/2010 1:27:43 PM PDT by airborne (Why is it we won't allow the Bible in school, but we will in prison? Think about it.)
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To: BenLurkin
“The next earthquake could be sooner than later,” said Lisa Grant Ludwig of UC Irvine, who helped write the study. U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Lucy Jones, who was not involved in the study, said it was possible that the entire southern San Andreas fault could rupture.

Teaming up for the next grant?

7 posted on 10/10/2010 1:27:46 PM PDT by mazda77 (Rubio - US Senate, West FL22nd, Scott/Carroll - FL Gov/LtGov, Miller-AK US Senate)
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To: BenLurkin
“The next earthquake could be sooner than later,” said Lisa Grant Ludwig of UC Irvine, who helped write the study.

Then again, there's always the possibility that it could be later than sooner.
It all depends on which one comes first, sooner or later or later or sooner.

But it's a pretty safe bet that Lisa's Nobel Prize is gonna be later, not sooner.

8 posted on 10/10/2010 1:30:08 PM PDT by Willie Green (Go Pat Go!!!)
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To: BenLurkin

Ho, ho. Duct tape’s got this one.


9 posted on 10/10/2010 1:39:09 PM PDT by righttackle44 (I may not be much, but I raised a United States Marine.)
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To: Keith in Iowa

Along with all the nitwit leftist retreads..including those in Hollyweird. :)


10 posted on 10/10/2010 1:42:00 PM PDT by MAD-AS-HELL (There's a revolution "brewing".....)
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To: Willie Green; mazda77; airborne

Exactly. So whatever you do, do NOT stock up on water, food, ammo, or prescription medications.


11 posted on 10/10/2010 1:42:45 PM PDT by BenLurkin (This post is not a statement of fact. It is merely a personal opinion -- or humor -- or both.)
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To: Willie Green
"...when herein and forever hereafter, the party of the first part in this document shall be known as the party of the first part."

She sounds like Groucho, Chico and Harpo all rolled into one. (-;

12 posted on 10/10/2010 1:43:11 PM PDT by tommyboy (We'll do it live)
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To: BenLurkin

I see no reason for California to exist as a state in today’s world. Time for all good Christians, Conservatives, and people who love this country to bug out and move elsewhere. Stop feeding the beast.


13 posted on 10/10/2010 1:45:16 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache (In a world where I feel so small, I can't stop thinking big.)
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To: BenLurkin

I live in Ventura County, CA. NONE of my neighbors are prepared for anything.


14 posted on 10/10/2010 1:45:22 PM PDT by barbarianbabs
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To: BenLurkin

The Pacific Rim Ring of Fire has been very busy in the last few years. I would not be surprised at all for the San Andreas Fault to make a move in the next 10 years. There has been a whole lot of shaken going on around it but none on the fault itself. A little too quiet.


15 posted on 10/10/2010 1:46:07 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: Willie Green
Then again, there's always the possibility that it could be later than sooner.
It all depends on which one comes first, sooner or later or later or sooner.
But it's a pretty safe bet that Lisa's Nobel Prize is gonna be later, not sooner.


DARK HELMET: What the hell am I looking at? When does this happen in the movie?
COL SANDURZ: Now. You're looking at now, sir. Everything that happens now, is happening now.
DARK HELMET: What happened to then?
COL SANDURZ: We passed then.
DARK HELMET: When?
COL SANDURZ: Just now. We're at now, now.
DARK HELMET: Go back to then.
COL SANDURZ: When?
DARK HELMET: Now.
COL SANDURZ: Now?
DARK HELMET: Now.
COL SANDURZ: I can't.
DARK HELMET: Why?
COL SANDURZ: We missed it.
DARK HELMET: When?
COL SANDURZ: Just now.
DARK HELMET: When will then be now?
COL SANDURZ: Soon.
DARK HELMET: How soon?

16 posted on 10/10/2010 1:49:04 PM PDT by Alex Murphy ("Posting news feeds, making eyes bleed, he's hated on seven continents")
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To: BenLurkin

The last major rupture on the San Andreas was the 1906 San Francisco quake. The last major socal ruputure was the 1857 Fort Tejon quake.


17 posted on 10/10/2010 1:50:39 PM PDT by HerrBlucher (Defund, repeal, investigate, impeach, convict, jail, celebrate.)
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To: BenLurkin

Geez, that ought to take care of our oversupply of housing.


18 posted on 10/10/2010 1:52:17 PM PDT by umgud (Wear your Border Patrol hats to the polls)
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To: airborne
“The next earthquake could be sooner than later,”

I don't know about that. At one spot on the [SA]fault, large quakes were pretty regular, on the order of every twenty years.

Monitoring stations were set up to pinpoint the exact location for taking core samples after the next large quake. One didn't happen for about twenty-nine years.

Oh, and core samples revealed the slipping was occurring along a talc mineral deposit.

19 posted on 10/10/2010 1:53:41 PM PDT by Calvin Locke
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To: My Favorite Headache
Gotta be quicker, FRiend. I expected to see the “Death to California" posts within the top ten!
8^)
20 posted on 10/10/2010 1:55:27 PM PDT by BenLurkin (This post is not a statement of fact. It is merely a personal opinion -- or humor -- or both.)
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To: BenLurkin

“The Big One” in Florida is usually expected sometime close to Labor Day each year. I am now using up my collected extras so they don’t waste away and will replenish them in a timely manner starting next June.


21 posted on 10/10/2010 2:02:08 PM PDT by mazda77 (Rubio - US Senate, West FL22nd, Scott/Carroll - FL Gov/LtGov, Miller-AK US Senate)
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To: BenLurkin

Be nice, there are still a few of us out here that hate liberals and would rather not go down with the nutjobs on the left that have a 5:1 ration on us.


22 posted on 10/10/2010 2:02:41 PM PDT by SideoutFred (B.O. Stinks...it really does)
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To: BenLurkin
So outlawing incandescent light bulbs didn't help?

Isn't there something that can be taxed to reduce seismic activity?

Or hey, wait a minute...does this have something to do with Barry lowering the sea levels?


Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

23 posted on 10/10/2010 2:29:41 PM PDT by The Comedian (Keep talking while I reload...)
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To: BenLurkin
The 340-mile, southern section of the San Andreas fault could slip at anytime, triggering a massive, magnitude 8.1 quake, researchers announced Sunday........the fault is long overdue for a major quake"

It (the "big one") has been reported as due "anytime" and "long overdue" for the last fifty years. I expect that reporting to not change in the next fifty years.

While the general mechanics of earthquakes are understood, the science of the geologic specifics for accurately identifying and predicting their next occurrences is presently in the kindergarten stage.

24 posted on 10/10/2010 2:31:44 PM PDT by Wuli
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To: BenLurkin

Well, yeah, and the New Madrid COULD go any day and is “overdue” for a major rupture. I expect the same could be said for 90% of the major fault lines in the world. (Chili and Sumatra being the obvious exceptions)


25 posted on 10/10/2010 2:39:17 PM PDT by brothers4thID (http://scarlettsays.blogspot.com/)
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To: BenLurkin

The “big one” has been said to come any second now since I was a kid in the seventies.

You just live your life and quit worrying.
I figure it’s just as likely to not happen in my lifetime as well or be much less then they thought.

Now I wouldn’t live in LA or the Bay area, there are places that you definately do not want to be.


26 posted on 10/10/2010 3:09:52 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares ( Refusing to kneel before the "messiah".)
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To: BenLurkin
Experts Say The ‘Big One’ Will Be Even Bigger

"October surprise"?

Maybe in 3012. They've been promising this would happen for years and it's been as evasive as "Global Warming".

27 posted on 10/10/2010 3:20:18 PM PDT by Caipirabob ( Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: Parley Baer
The subduction fault lying off the coasts of Oregon and Washington States moves catastrophically, on average, every 265 years. Last time a subduction earthquake occurred the coastlines sank 16 feet.

We are overdue for another quake. Predictions say it will be of about an 8 or 9 in scale. Tsunami approximately 100 ft. high. In other words, a real corker of a catastrophe.

28 posted on 10/10/2010 4:17:37 PM PDT by SatinDoll (NO FOREIGN NATIONALS AS OUR PRESIDENT!)
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To: BenLurkin

I’ve always wondered why they call it a “fault”.


29 posted on 10/10/2010 4:42:03 PM PDT by LurkedLongEnough
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To: BurbankKarl

* Ping *


30 posted on 10/10/2010 4:46:39 PM PDT by Czar (NRA Life Member)
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To: Calvin Locke
"I don't know about that."

Not quite sure what your response was in reference to, but to clarify my earlier post, I was commenting on the "expert's" statement that - “The next earthquake could be sooner than later,”

It's sort of like a weatherman predicting the chance of rain being 50%.

It doesn't take a college degree to make such a vague statement, and it appears that you provided at least as much information in your post than she did in her paid for study.

31 posted on 10/10/2010 5:28:01 PM PDT by airborne (Why is it we won't allow the Bible in school, but we will in prison? Think about it.)
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To: LurkedLongEnough
"I’ve always wondered why they call it a “fault”."

Something to do with W's geological edumacation.

32 posted on 10/10/2010 6:06:31 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: barbarianbabs

Please share this link with your neighbors. Ventura and Oxnard, even though far from the San Andreas, are going to expereience severe and prolonged shaking due to geological conditions.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xioHswbahPc
Earthquake Scenario Shaking Simulation


33 posted on 10/11/2010 7:10:44 AM PDT by BenLurkin (This post is not a statement of fact. It is merely a personal opinion -- or humor -- or both.)
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To: 75thOVI; aimhigh; Alice in Wonderland; AndrewC; aragorn; aristotleman; Avoiding_Sulla; BBell; ...
The 340-mile, southern section of the San Andreas fault could slip at anytime, triggering a massive, magnitude 8.1 quake, researchers announced Sunday.
Of course, that headline could have run at anytime since the great SF quake. :') Thanks BenLurkin.
 
Catastrophism
 
· join · view topics · view or post blog · bookmark · post new topic · subscribe ·
 

34 posted on 10/11/2010 5:28:13 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (The 2nd Amendment follows right behind the 1st because some people are hard of hearing.)
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To: brothers4thID
Chili always gives me seismic outbursts.

I'm eating some right now, in fact.

Guess I'll be sleeping on the sofa tonight!

Cheers!

35 posted on 10/11/2010 7:17:00 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: BenLurkin
Until recently, experts believed that the section of the fault through the Carrizo Plain, located approximately 100 miles northwest of Los Angeles, would remain dormant for at least another century

There has been virtually no activity on the San Andreas between the Cajon Pass and Parkfield for quite a while. Tick, Tick ... Tick.

This may be the only October Surprise the Democrats might get.

36 posted on 10/11/2010 10:21:06 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (11/2/10-Obama: Close your eyes and think of Kenya)
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To: skeeter

I heard the Midwest, all the way up the Mississippi, could experience a 13.4, that could ring their bells in D.C., real good.


37 posted on 10/11/2010 10:25:28 PM PDT by dragnet2
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