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Poll shows Barletta up on Kanjorski (supremely important point in article)
Times Tribune ^ | 10/13/2010 | BORYS KRAWCZENIUK

Posted on 10/14/2010 7:19:00 AM PDT by Tennessean4Bush

Republican Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta held a solid lead over Democratic U.S. Rep. Paul E. Kanjorski in a new Franklin & Marshall College/Times-Shamrock Newspapers poll released Tuesday.

With about three weeks to Election Day, Mr. Barletta led Mr. Kanjorski by 47 to 40 percent among likely voters with 12 percent undecided and 45 to 38 percent with 16 percent undecided among all voters, according to the poll.

The 7-percentage-point margins are slightly larger, though statistically insignificant, than a 5-point advantage that Mr. Barletta had in an F&M poll during almost the exact same week in 2008 before he lost to Mr. Kanjorski three weeks later.

Unlike 2008, when Democrats rode a wave of dislike for President Bush to control of Congress, voters are angry at Democrats this year, which could hamper Mr. Kanjorski's efforts to catch up, said G. Terry Madonna, Ph.D,. director of the F&M poll.

"They're the exact reverse," Dr. Madonna said. "In '08, the environment worked in favor of Kanjorski."

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: barletta; conservative; elections; immigration; polls
In 2008, the Pub led the Rat by 7-8 points among likely voters, yet still lost because the GOP turnout was depressed and the Rats were energized. So, even though you see a poll suggesting a Dem might be poised to win, it is all about the turnout and GOTV efforts. Stay vigilant! Call every conservative voter you know and make sure they vote. Volunteer in a competitive race. Donate to individual races if you can!
1 posted on 10/14/2010 7:19:05 AM PDT by Tennessean4Bush
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To: Tennessean4Bush

Fear is a great motivator to vote. We all have Obamaphobia.

2 posted on 10/14/2010 7:20:26 AM PDT by screaminsunshine (counter revolutionary)
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To: Tennessean4Bush

Go Lou,Go!

3 posted on 10/14/2010 7:21:03 AM PDT by Dr. Ursus
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To: Tennessean4Bush

That’s a good point. I’d say if Republicans are single digits behind, even 7,8,9, they need to work and be donated to as if they are tied, because they just might be.

4 posted on 10/14/2010 7:27:54 AM PDT by November 2010
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To: November 2010

Exactly, even a poll where we are 10-15 points down may be wrong, depending on the turnout model used by the pollster. I think Gallup is sensing this turnout difference by publishing a high and low turnout model. If you see a poll that surveys 1000 registered voters and identifies 750 likely voters, then the poll still may be skewed if it does not take into account intensity. We all know 75% of registered voters typically do not vote, especially in a midterm election. It is more like 40%. Get out the vote efforts, voter intensity, etc., can really swing it in our direction.

5 posted on 10/14/2010 7:33:25 AM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: Tennessean4Bush

Anyone concerned about illegal immigrants and the crime they bring to a city should be backing Barletta. He’s one of the few Northeastern mayors to take steps to stop the illegals by enforcing fines on landlords who rent to them.

Barletta is a standup guy. Kanjorski is a Dem hack who has been feeding at the public trough for way too long.

6 posted on 10/14/2010 7:33:55 AM PDT by Palladin ("Congress--YOU'RE FIRED!!!")
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To: screaminsunshine

I prefer to call it Baracknaphobia

7 posted on 10/14/2010 7:34:21 AM PDT by JerseyDvl (Sometimes the road less traveled.... is less traveled for a reason.)
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To: JerseyDvl

Badda-bing! Good one!!

8 posted on 10/14/2010 7:48:08 AM PDT by Palladin ("Congress--YOU'RE FIRED!!!")
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To: Owl_Eagle; brityank; Physicist; WhyisaTexasgirlinPA; GOPJ; abner; baseballmom; Mo1; Ciexyz; ...


9 posted on 10/14/2010 8:00:34 AM PDT by Tribune7 (The Democrat Party is not a political organization but a religious cult.)
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To: Tennessean4Bush

We NEED Barletta!!!

10 posted on 10/14/2010 8:20:30 AM PDT by AuntB (Illegal immigration is simply more "share the wealth" socialism and a CRIME not a race!)
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To: Palladin

Lou is a very stand up guy. He has a lot of guts as well.

11 posted on 10/14/2010 8:26:09 AM PDT by Frantzie (Imam Ob*m* & Democrats support the VICTORY MOSQUE & TV supports Imam)
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To: Tennessean4Bush

Kanjorski used to breeze through elections in this blue collar area, where voters vote for whom their union tells them to. However, in 2008, Kanjorski barely squeaked by with a 4% win over Lou. It was Monroe County which put Kanjorski over the top. This area is New York/New Jersey west, as many in the Poconos are transplants from those states.

In addition, Kanjorski purposefully rode the Obama coattails, telling everyone that he more or less had an “in” with Obama, which would greatly benefit the area.

This election is Barletta’s to lose.

12 posted on 10/14/2010 9:02:38 AM PDT by Born Conservative ("I'm a fan of disruptors" - Nancy Pelosi)
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To: Born Conservative

Kanjorski is the poster boy for the old white Democrat elitist entrenched hogs at the DC trough who have overstayed their welcome by a couple of decades.

Dingell is another one.

Time for both of them to have forced retirement parties.

13 posted on 10/14/2010 9:12:19 AM PDT by randita (Visit to find GOP House candidates who need your support to knock off a DEM.)
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To: randita

I’m so sick of these oldtime pols who think the world owes them a living.

14 posted on 10/14/2010 10:17:52 AM PDT by Palladin ("Congress--YOU'RE FIRED!!!")
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To: Tribune7

Today Lou enters the House. Tomorrow the Senate. We need guys like him in Washington.

15 posted on 10/14/2010 10:59:01 AM PDT by Temple Owl (Excelsior! Onward and upward.)
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