Posted on 10/21/2010 10:13:24 AM PDT by GOPinCa
Here is what pollster the Tarrance Group is telling the Carly Fiorina campaign:
The race for the US Senate in California is an actual dead heat, with both Fiorina and Boxer standing right at forty-four percent (44%) of the vote. Six percent (6%) of voters are voting for one of the other candidates, and 5% are undecided . . .
It is also important to note that Boxer’s negatives are fully institutionalized to the point where she has never once broken the 45% level in terms of her ballot strength, and there are a “hard” fifty-three percent (53%) of voters who believe it is time for a new person.
Conclusions
The final eleven days of the campaign are entirely about weight of message. The trajectory of the last two weeks of tracking clearly shows that the Fiorina campaign has been pitch perfect in terms of message, and have a message arc that can and will close the deal. The Boxer campaign has also shown that they are now past the end of their message arc and do not have a playbook for what to do thematically in the last eleven days. They have already tried to prosecute the messages they believe would render Fiorina unelectable — worst CEO, right-wing extremist, outsourcing, etc — and none of them have performed as they needed them to. Boxer’s only option at this point is pure weight of message, particularly in the Los Angeles and San Francisco DMA’s, to try and dominate the focus of the ballot question among the remaining undecided voters on Fiorina enough that they will hesitate and “scatter” to one of the minor party candidates.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
‘Call me ma’am’, time to say good-bye...
I am afraid that the pot head vote (the extra voters who will show up to vote yes on proposition 19) will be enough to push Boxer over the top.
The demise of Boxer, Murray and Reid is almost too much to hope for, but would rock the Democrat Party to its foundation.
I don’t know. A lot of the potheads may not be so pro-Dem this time around since the Obama admin. says it’s still going to enforce federal law re: possession of marijuan.
They can’t remember the address. No worries.
I’ve heard it said that an incumbent needs 50% or more because the independents and undecideds (especially this year) usually go against the incumbents.
There are a half dozen third parties in California. Boxer could realistically win without 50% — for example, 48 to 47%.
IMO, voter fraud, primarily illegals voting would require a 10% lead in the polls right now to beat. We are probably talking hundreds of thousands of illegal votes. And I don’t know how bad the military absentee voters will be screwed.
The Republican CANNOT win in CA when it is this close. Boxer will be back, and the media will crow ad nauseum how it negates Republican victories elsewhere.
CA voters do not like the health care bill or the stimulus. If Carly hammers Boxer on her record, Carly can win.
Ms. Boxer losing would be so sweet.
Tell you what, if she and Whitman don’t win, CA going to slip into the ocean.
Carly is getting hammered by Boxer on shipping jobs overseas. Carly needs to respond by saying she would have kept them here if the California business climate made it possible to do so and be competitive. But that wasn’t the case. Boxer and her Greens have regulated business right out of California without thought of the effect their regulations would have on jobs.
I have a number of suppliers in CA & they tell me it is hell trying to operate there.
The problem is that everyone I deal with is bringing merchandise in from offshore and moving out of CA would be logistically very difficult.
One has told me he is has been contacted by Nevada and offered perks for coming there.
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