Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Everyone Worried About Pat Toomey's Lead Should Read This (Good breakdown from NRO)
National Review Online ^ | October 21, 2010 | Jim Geraghty

Posted on 10/21/2010 11:46:11 AM PDT by GOPinCa

For those who are worried about Pat Toomey’s sudden slip in the polls in Pennsylvania — and I was among them — you’ll want to read this analysis from “Number Cruncher,” a finance/political junkie who spends even more time breaking down polls than I do.

Your readers should calm down. This race isn’t that close, or even closing. The only thing closing is the pollsters’ prediction of who to consider a likely voter. Looking at the Quinnipiac results, I find them very encouraging for Toomey, specifically among Independents. Taking the Quinnipiac crosstabs and applying 2004, 2006, 2008, and my predicted 2010 Likely voter model, the results are as follows:

2004: The last good GOP year, Pennsylvania exit poll crosstabs came in with party ID at 41 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican, 20 percent Independent. If you apply this breakdown to Quinnipiac’s sense of how each group is voting, it results in a 2.1 percent Toomey win. This year is the most likely turnout comparable to use based on history only, and one I believe understates GOP support in general.

I think Quinnipiac is using something akin to this year as their turnout mode, but 2004 has me scratching my head, namely the 41 percent Democrat party ID support.

It was a very good year for the GOP, yet if you look at party splits we see only a 2 percent upward tick for Democrats in the 2006 exit polls, when the Democrats had a landslide election — in this election Santorum lost by 18 points!.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: joesestak; pattoomey; pennsylvania; quinnipiac; rasmussen; ricksantorum; toomey
For those who are worried about Pat Toomey’s sudden slip in the polls in Pennsylvania — and I was among them — you’ll want to read this analysis from “Number Cruncher,” a finance/political junkie who spends even more time breaking down polls than I do.

Your readers should calm down. This race isn’t that close, or even closing. The only thing closing is the pollsters’ prediction of who to consider a likely voter. Looking at the Quinnipiac results, I find them very encouraging for Toomey, specifically among Independents. Taking the Quinnipiac crosstabs and applying 2004, 2006, 2008, and my predicted 2010 Likely voter model, the results are as follows:

2004: The last good GOP year, Pennsylvania exit poll crosstabs came in with party ID at 41 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican, 20 percent Independent. If you apply this breakdown to Quinnipiac’s sense of how each group is voting, it results in a 2.1 percent Toomey win. This year is the most likely turnout comparable to use based on history only, and one I believe understates GOP support in general.

I think Quinnipiac is using something akin to this year as their turnout mode, but 2004 has me scratching my head, namely the 41 percent Democrat party ID support.

It was a very good year for the GOP, yet if you look at party splits we see only a 2 percent upward tick for Democrats in the 2006 exit polls, when the Democrats had a landslide election — in this election Santorum lost by 18 points!.

This is the danger of comparing Presidential and Mid-term elections. A plausible explanation of this can be found in this study from Univ. of PA The exit poll Bush support versus actual support hurt Bush by 6.5 percent. In other words, this year’s exit poll party ID is likely off base.

In fairness to the exits on CNN, they appear to have been adjusted somewhat (they all seem to tie out to the actual results), but I recall as the article study does there might be problems.

Simply stated: How does Specter win by 9 percent in 2004 and Santorum lose by 18 percent in 2006, where the electorate only turned out 2 percent more Democrats? The answer something is wrong — a 2 point party split does not make up 27 percent points, not with a candidate like Santorum who did not have any significant ethics problems. So while I won’t fault Quinnipiac for targeting 2004 as a sanity check, it’s the best one historically, it is nevertheless a problematic data point.

So let us take a few breaths and look at the worst case scenarios for Toomey — applying 2006 and 2008.

2006: Assuming a 2006 turnout percentage — the last big Democrat midterm year, with 43 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican, 19 percent independent — the race is a dead heat, with Toomey trailing by only 0.6 percent under Quinnipiac’s cross-tabs.

This is fatal news for Sestak! When applying the Quinnipiac cross-tabs for the biggest Democrat midterm election since 1974, yields at best a .6% win for Sestak . . . Can we stop worrying?

2008: So then we look at the biggest Democratic Presidential year since 1964. Cross tabs came in with party ID at 44 percent Democrat, 37 percent Republican, 17 percent Independent.

To believe the race could duplicate this is to say you need to be smoking peyote. Assuming this turnout, including historic Philadelphia turnout . . . at best puts this still a dead heat, with Toomey trailing by just 1.4 percent.

So where is this race really at? Follow me.

Scenario One: Presume Pennsylvania’s turnout will be 36.5 percent Democrat, 37 percent Republican, 24.5 percent Independent. Applying these targets to Quinnipiac’s split yields a pretty easy to call 52.6 percent to 46.9 percent, or 5.7 point victory for Toomey. The way I came up with my splits is to take the 2008 Rate 44-37-17, and adjust based on Rasmussen’s summary of Party Affiliation percentage change in Nov 2008 versus Sept 2010.

Scenario Two: The problem with Scenario One is that while I capture the change of party affiliation, I assume a presidential year base model rather than a mid-term election. In a midterm turnout will be lower — 50 to 70% of a presidential year, which means only the more enthusiastic voters will turn out. Some expect this to be anywhere from 3 to 7 points — overall advantage to the GOP. My model takes a more conservative view with the Dems falling to 34 percent, the GOP up to 38 percent, and Independents to 28 percent. This gives Toomey a very comfortable 9 point win (and is consistent with many polls, with the same cross-tabs as Qunnipiac and PPP).

Scenario Three: But there is another problem with this assumption, which is the Tea Party as an affiliation. As noted, the GOP support has gone down since 2008. How is this possible? The emergence of the Tea Party. Tea Party Independents are going to vote and to be blunt, they will not be voting Democrat. Many of these voters also will not be telling any pollster they “are” Republicans. Going with a cruder model, but one that tries to capture the Tea Party, using flimsy data and guess-timates, I believe the Electorate in Pennsylvania is 34 percent Republican, 37 percent Democrat, 19 percent Tea Party-Independent, and 10 percent Moderate-Independent. Applying the Quinnipiac cross tabs where Republican and Tea Party have the same levels of support for Toomey, and where Moderate-Independents favor Sestak 53 percent to 47 percent yields . . . a 12 point Toomey win.

Thus I believe the margin race will end up between 9.1% and 12%, which is to say I will go out on a limb by taking the midpoint, and predicting Toomey beats Sestak by 10.5 percent.

Bottom line: nothing has changed with this race other than the pollsters’ predicted turnout models.

Separately, a few weeks ago Number Cruncher offered to bet a Ruth’s Chris steak dinner that Tom Tancredo would be the next governor of Colorado. I took the bet, and now I’m starting to worry I’m going to be paying for a filet mignon.

1 posted on 10/21/2010 11:46:14 AM PDT by GOPinCa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: GOPinCa

Next week the spin from the liberal media will be so bad it might affect the earths rotation.


2 posted on 10/21/2010 11:49:35 AM PDT by NeverForgetBataan (To the German Commander: ..........................NUTS !)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: GOPinCa

Anyone reading here ever been called a “Broken Glass Republican”


3 posted on 10/21/2010 11:52:06 AM PDT by flowerplough (Thomas Sowell: Those who look only at Obama's deeds tend to become Obama's critics.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: GOPinCa; Longbow1969; sam_paine

Ping for some non-echo chamber, good news.


4 posted on 10/21/2010 11:52:27 AM PDT by Obadiah (I can see November from my house!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Owl_Eagle; brityank; Physicist; WhyisaTexasgirlinPA; GOPJ; abner; baseballmom; Mo1; Ciexyz; ...

good news ping


5 posted on 10/21/2010 11:52:38 AM PDT by Tribune7 (The Democrat Party is not a political organization but a religious cult.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: NeverForgetBataan

Everyone needs to vote, get their like-minded friends and relatives to vote, take people to the polls if necessary, and help your local conservative candidates

Save the gloating until after the election!


6 posted on 10/21/2010 11:54:20 AM PDT by PGR88
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: NeverForgetBataan

Yup, they need to rally their troops by giving them the false impression they even have a chance.


7 posted on 10/21/2010 11:54:27 AM PDT by HerrBlucher (Defund, repeal, investigate, impeach, convict, jail, celebrate.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: GOPinCa

Even in polls that show Sestak leading or tied..he doesnt get over 46!!!! Has any poll had him over 46!!!!....Boxers ceiling is 45 then Sestaks seems to be 46


8 posted on 10/21/2010 11:55:43 AM PDT by skaterboy (Hate=Love....Love=Hate)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: GOPinCa

I am in PA and have heard from people in a position to know that they are concerned about the numbers.

Toomey’s race is not a slam dunk.... I just maxed out and I would encourage everyone to donate what you can... $5 bucks or $2500 bucks.

Cross your fingers!

All that said, makes me feel better to read it


9 posted on 10/21/2010 11:56:36 AM PDT by WomBom ("I read Free Republic for the pictures")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: NeverForgetBataan
If Toomey doesn't win by a bigger margin in Pennsylvania than Raese wins in West Virginia, then I will swear off telling West Virginia jokes ever again.

And if Toomey can pull off a double digit with over Joe Sleezetak and Raese does likewise in West Virginia, then I'll burn a couch in both their honors.

10 posted on 10/21/2010 11:57:33 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Obadiah
much_rejoicing.wav
11 posted on 10/21/2010 11:58:39 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: PGR88
Or to paraphrase Kenny Rodgers...’They'll be time enough for gloating when the voting’s done”....
12 posted on 10/21/2010 12:13:30 PM PDT by JPG (Sarah Palin says: "Buck-up or get out of the truck.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: GOPinCa
In the NJ Governor race several pollsters (including Quinnipiac & Monmouth)changed their likely voter models around this time last year, resulting in polls showing Corzine mounting an amazing comeback to lead Christie in the waning days.
We all know how that turned out.
13 posted on 10/21/2010 12:17:59 PM PDT by 07Jack
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: GOPinCa

Sounds good to me.


14 posted on 10/21/2010 12:32:55 PM PDT by fatima (Free Hugs Today :))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: HerrBlucher
Yup, they need to rally their troops by giving them the false impression they even have a chance.

And...show how close things are to start recounting themselves to victory!

Very predictable ACORNers.

15 posted on 10/21/2010 12:37:53 PM PDT by melancholy (It ain't Camelot, it's Scam-a-lot!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: melancholy

Interesting. Assuming Obama turnout numbers, Toomey would still win, by a razor thin margin. That’s, frankly, amazing. Toomey is more popular now than Obama was in PA back in 2008.


16 posted on 10/21/2010 1:55:20 PM PDT by BenKenobi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: AdmSmith; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; bigheadfred; Convert from ECUSA; Delacon; dervish; ...

Thanks GOPinCa.


17 posted on 10/21/2010 3:26:01 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (The 2nd Amendment follows right behind the 1st because some people are hard of hearing.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: WomBom
I am in PA and have heard from people in a position to know that they are concerned about the numbers.

Same here. Joe Sestak is killing Pat Toomey with Christine O'Donnell. :-(

People need to encourage their friends and neighbors to get to the polls to support Mr. Toomey.

18 posted on 10/21/2010 3:43:26 PM PDT by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: WomBom

I believe these numbers are being thrown out there to rev up the troops so they are not over confident. If weather is bad that day and people think there is a comfortable margin they will not vote. Just playing it safe.


19 posted on 10/21/2010 4:13:18 PM PDT by jerseyrocks
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: HerrBlucher; melancholy
Sorry, but for 2004/2006/2008, I spent a great deal of time in the district held by Joe Sestak. I've seen many, many hard-working ACORN types getting out the vote and not a single GOP team.

I was the Judge of Elections for a precinct that was 2 to 1 Republican to Democrat, yet the votes were nearly even...and I'm sure it wasn't fraud. The fact is, the Dems have been doing a good job mobilizing new voters, mobilizing their base, and convincing the Country-Club GOP voters that a vote for the GOP is a vote for Christine O'Donnell/Sarah Palin/TeaParty.

20 posted on 10/21/2010 7:26:49 PM PDT by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Gondring

I think Sestak will do very well in Southeastern PA, after all, that’s where he’s from. I’m hoping Toomey will do much better in central and western PA. I don’t know if Sestak will be able to mobilize the huge amounts of votes from Philadelphia, in a mid-term election, with the President not on the ballot. Without that kind of turnout, he’ll lose. It’ll be close... 1-2 points, but I think Toomey wins.


21 posted on 10/21/2010 7:43:33 PM PDT by Big E
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Gondring

I think Sestak will do very well in Southeastern PA, after all, that’s where he’s from. I’m hoping Toomey will do much better in central and western PA. I don’t know if Sestak will be able to mobilize the huge amounts of votes from Philadelphia, in a mid-term election, with the President not on the ballot. Without that kind of turnout, he’ll lose. It’ll be close... 1-2 points, but I think Toomey wins.


22 posted on 10/21/2010 7:43:48 PM PDT by Big E
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: flowerplough
Anyone reading here ever been called a “Broken Glass Republican”

I have.

I coined the term in my first post on Free Republic in 2000. (See my homepage for details.)

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)

LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

23 posted on 10/21/2010 8:06:36 PM PDT by LonePalm (Commander and Chef)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Gondring
and convincing the Country-Club GOP voters that a vote for the GOP is a vote for Christine O'Donnell/Sarah Palin/TeaParty.

In other words, a vote for the GOP is a vote for conservatism. Well, if they don't like conservatism, or they are offended by it, then they should vote democrat. We should never be ashamed of conservatism, that is how we got into this mess to begin with.

24 posted on 10/21/2010 9:09:59 PM PDT by HerrBlucher (Defund, repeal, investigate, impeach, convict, jail, celebrate.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: HerrBlucher
In other words, a vote for the GOP is a vote for conservatism. Well, if they don't like conservatism, or they are offended by it, then they should vote democrat.

That's exactly the point! There are many who are registered Republican but vote Democrat. But people who don't know the area see that and think there must be voter fraud where there isn't. Meanwhile, true voter fraud, not to mention voter intimidation, is sailing right by down in Philadelphia.

And you get the other point, too....that many who are registered GOP, and even usually vote that way, are switching away from their early support of Pat Toomey because Christine O'Donnell is being used to scare voters with a meme of "the GOP is out of control and you can't give them power." Sadly, there are a great many of our fellow Americans who are clueless enough for these things to work.

25 posted on 10/22/2010 1:13:32 AM PDT by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: Gondring
And you get the other point, too....that many who are registered GOP, and even usually vote that way, are switching away from their early support of Pat Toomey because Christine O'Donnell is being used to scare voters with a meme of "the GOP is out of control and you can't give them power." Sadly, there are a great many of our fellow Americans who are clueless enough for these things to work.

I am so PI**ED about this!!! It would be so easy to paint the DemonRATs as Communists who want to take over the country! The Republicans have done ZERO campaigning! It makes me wonder where my donations are going!?! I pray to God that there is some plan to destroy the DemonRATS via a national ad campaign beginning this weekend.

26 posted on 10/22/2010 6:29:25 AM PDT by Conservative_Rob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: Conservative_Rob

How many people have accompanied you as you go door-to-door this season?


27 posted on 10/22/2010 8:23:19 AM PDT by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Gondring
Some of us have to spend most of our time providing for our families and those protected constitencies who recieve my tax dollars.

I have to depend on the sanctity of the voting booth, and it's been subverted to the point of meaninglessness. I give directly to the candidates I support, not to parties, but I'm not seeing any effective ads being produced by Toomey's campaign.

Where I am, the DemonRATs are running hourly ads with the same old montra "Republicans want to take away your Social Security", Republicans are in bed with Wall Street", Bush was BAD".

This could easily be countered with Obambi's 3 trillion dollar payoff to his Wall Street buddies and unions, which, of course, has made Social Security BROKE! Did you get your cost of living increase the last two years??? Is 10% unemployment better than 4.5% unemployment??? Yep, DemonRATs will protect your Social Security, all the time robbing from it so that your benefits decrease every year to the point that it is worthless. Do you want a gubmint stooge telling you what medical care you are allowed???

I'm just a dumb working Joe. If I can come up with these, then Pat needs a new media director.

28 posted on 10/22/2010 9:41:45 AM PDT by Conservative_Rob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson