He might, but generally midterm elections are high water marks for challengers to incumbents. In a Presidential election year, especially the way 2012 is shaping up, the dynamic is very different. This is the year the 'Pubs have to do well, because whoever doesn't win this time around will probably be looking at a much tougher environment in 2012.
The Massholes in Bawney's district just make this one of those places where an established and entrenched 'Rat like Fwank are that much harder to dig out. There are just places like that, where the 'Rat seemingly has the seat for life if they want it. MD is that way, too. Look how long that old hag Mikulski has been hanging around. She'll probably die in office, the old bat.
Great analysis, all the way around. With Sean, much will depend on if the Repubs get a majority in the House — and if they have the gonads to go after Fwank for his palpable malfeasance. The second, of course, is a massive if.