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Strong early-vote numbers for GOP [Florida]
Herald Tribune ^ | 10/22/10 | Jeremy Wallace

Posted on 10/22/2010 12:05:56 PM PDT by freespirited

The enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats has for months been cited as a harbinger to major Republican Party victories in the Nov. 2 mid-term elections.

And if early voting is any indication, that barometer appears justified, both locally and across Florida.

Through the first three full days of early voting, ending Wednesday, Republicans were dominating Democrats in Sarasota County. That is sending a panic through local Democrats who fear that unless the trend is quickly reversed, they could be looking at wholesale defeats, including a loss for incumbent state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald, D-Sarasota.

Of the 8,600 votes cast early in Sarasota County, just 30 percent were by Democrats. Republicans comprised 53 percent of the voters. The remaining 17 percent were supporters of minor parties or held no party affiliation.

Statewide, Republicans are also leading Democrats in early voting. Of the 778,000 early voters so far, just 33 percent statewide have been Democrats compared with 53 percent Republicans.

Compounding Democrats' problems: Early voting before this year was seen as one of the party's strengths. Statewide, Democrats beat Republicans in early voting in both 2006 and 2008.

Likewise, in Sarasota County more Democrats cast ballots early than did Republicans in 2006 and 2008, even though the county has more registered Republicans.

“Sure I'm concerned,” Fitzgerald said.

Fitzgerald added that he believed Republicans were more energized this year, but he did not expect the numbers that he is seeing so far in early voting.

Fitzgerald said if Democrats do not start voting soon, he knows he will be in trouble come Nov. 2 in his hotly contested District 69 re-election bid.

The numbers have been a big confidence boost for Republicans such as Ray Pilon, who is challenging Fitzgerald. Pilon, who has had to overcome doubts in his own party that he could win, said the numbers have lifted his supporters' morale.

“It's encouraging,” said Pilon, a former county commissioner.

Pilon won't be the only one celebrating if the early voting edge stays with the GOP. The turnout could bode well for Republicans in statewide contests. That includes gubernatorial candidate Rick Scott, who is counting on a big GOP turnout in Sarasota County to help him win what is expected to be Florida's closest race for governor in over a decade.

Sarasota Republican Party chairman Joe Gruters said the early-voting numbers are proving that Republican voters have more vigor this year.

“Republicans are energized,” Gruters said just after Scott's running mate, Jennifer Carroll, was in Sarasota to encourage local Republicans to keep up their efforts to turn out the early voters.

“We don't expect to win early voting, but any lead at all is shocking at this point and a testament to the incredible enthusiasm amongst Republicans,” said Dan Conston, spokesman for the Republican Party of Florida.

That kind of thinking explains why top national prognosticators are expecting Republicans to register big gains in both houses of Congress, and in gubernatorial offices across the nation.

Frustration with President Barack Obama and anger at the sagging economy have combined to be a major motivator for Republicans.

But Democrats are not conceding that those early- voting trends will hold up.

Sarasota Democratic Party chairwoman Rita Ferrandino admits there was an initial panic that set it when she saw only 30 percent Democrats in the early-voting numbers. But the more she has investigated what is going on, the more she is convinced that the U.S. Senate race is causing the voter turnout disparity for Democrats.

Ferrandino said many of the county's best Democratic voters — those who never miss an election — report to her that they are holding off in case Democrat Kendrick Meek or independent Charlie Crist drop out of the Senate race against Republican Marco Rubio.

“I'm confident it is the Senate race,” Ferrandino said.

By the time local Democrats hold their big early-vote turnout rally at Sarasota's Island Park on Oct. 30, Ferrandino said ,the numbers should begin breaking back toward Democrats.

Eric Jotkoff, a spokesman for the Florida Democratic Party, said there should be no concern at all.

“We are right where we expected to be at this point in the cycle and look forward to celebrating huge victories this November when Florida elects Democratic leaders up and down the ballot,” Jotkoff said.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: earlyvoting; enthusiasm; florida
A pretty objective news story. Who would have thunk it.
1 posted on 10/22/2010 12:05:58 PM PDT by freespirited
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To: freespirited

I think Barck the Kenyan is gonna need a bigger ice cream truck.


2 posted on 10/22/2010 12:07:55 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Which are you voting for on November 2nd? Freedom and liberty or FREE ice cream?)
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To: freespirited

Any numbers on Grayson? I hope he gets humiliated.


3 posted on 10/22/2010 12:10:01 PM PDT by Brett66 (Where government advances, and it advances relentlessly , freedom is imperiled -Janice Rogers Brown)
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To: freespirited; InterceptPoint
Statewide, Republicans are also leading Democrats in early voting. Of the 778,000 early voters so far, just 33 percent statewide have been Democrats compared with 53 percent Republicans.
Florida may be one of those states where all the Democrats are swept out of office except for only the minority districts.
4 posted on 10/22/2010 12:10:55 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

Love the excuse about the Senate race being the differential.

This is called whistling past the graveyard.


5 posted on 10/22/2010 12:11:42 PM PDT by mwl8787
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To: LS
Statewide, Republicans are also leading Democrats in early voting. Of the 778,000 early voters so far, just 33 percent statewide have been Democrats compared with 53 percent Republicans.
I sure hope these numbers are the rule and not the exception across the US.
6 posted on 10/22/2010 12:12:10 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: freespirited
...local Democrats who fear that unless the trend is quickly reversed, they could be looking at wholesale defeats

I picture them on the beach looking way, way up to see the top of the tsunami...(teanami)...

...and holding up an umbrella...

N O V E M B E R !

LOVE it!

7 posted on 10/22/2010 12:13:35 PM PDT by NorCoGOP (OBAMA: Living proof that hope is not a plan.)
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To: freespirited

[Fitzgerald added that he believed Republicans were more energized this year, but he did not expect the numbers that he is seeing so far in early voting]

I view this literally as a life and death election, as do many in te Tea Party.

I put a lot at risk, writing the biography of Harry Reid. I wouldn’t have done that if I didn’t think the country was in peril.


8 posted on 10/22/2010 12:14:40 PM PDT by DaxtonBrown (HARRY: Money Mob & Influence (See my Expose on Reid on amazon.com written by me!))
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To: freespirited

I would say the Dem there is toast. Sarasota is not as conservative as just south of there in Ft. Myers - home of scum Connie Mack IV the open borders DIABLO who’s grand pappy fixed baseball games.

Sarasota is a bit more liberal but lots of retirees who are suffering and who will suffer a LOT more under ObamaCare.

ObamaCare is the first Islamic tax on non-Muslims in America. Also called a Jizya. Jizya’s are common in Islamic countries where non-muslims are taxed.


9 posted on 10/22/2010 12:15:49 PM PDT by Frantzie (Imam Ob*m* & Democrats support the VICTORY MOSQUE & TV supports Imam)
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To: freespirited

The Dems will wait until election night and figure out how many ballots they need to stuff in the boxes to win.


10 posted on 10/22/2010 12:20:56 PM PDT by CholeraJoe (Dude, your I-pod isn't a karaoke machine.)
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To: freespirited

11 posted on 10/22/2010 12:33:40 PM PDT by struggle ((The struggle continues))
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To: freespirited

The last part reeks or bovine poop.

LLS


12 posted on 10/22/2010 12:40:24 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer (WOLVERINES!)
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To: freespirited
That is sending a panic through local Democrats who fear that unless the trend is quickly reversed, they could be looking at wholesale defeats, including a loss for incumbent state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald, D-Sarasota.

Well, DUH. We are going to kick out every one of these Liberal trash as hard as we can.

And the GOP had best take heed, because the entire RINO, good old boy establishment is going to be sailing through the door after them right soon.

13 posted on 10/22/2010 12:42:43 PM PDT by bill1952 (Choice is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
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To: freespirited
Fitzgerald added that he believed Republicans were more energized this year, but he did not expect the numbers that he is seeing so far in early voting.

This will be the constant comments made on Nov.3 when the GOP sweeps.

'They knew the GOP was going to have a strong showing, but they didn't know it was going to be as strong as it is going to be'.

Don't be misled by the 'tightening of the polls', when you have to 'rally your base' your Party is in serious trouble.

14 posted on 10/22/2010 12:43:20 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (When the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn (Pr.29:2))
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To: freespirited

The dead vote after the polls have closed.


15 posted on 10/22/2010 12:45:22 PM PDT by henkster (A broken government does not merit full faith and credit.)
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To: freespirited

Congressman Colonel Allen West!!!! Because he worked so hard to get that title


16 posted on 10/22/2010 1:02:56 PM PDT by GWB00 (Barbara Streisand barely made it out of high school.)
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To: freespirited

Congressman Colonel Allen West!!!! Because he worked so hard to get that title


17 posted on 10/22/2010 1:02:56 PM PDT by GWB00 (Barbara Streisand barely made it out of high school.)
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To: freespirited

I believe this eagerness to vote on the part of republicans and actual Americans across the country will cause an even greater tidal wave of democrat carnage than suspected. Unfortunately, fraud will be RAMPANT this year. It will be the only thing which can keep particular elections close.


18 posted on 10/22/2010 1:42:17 PM PDT by Oldpuppymax
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To: Oldpuppymax
I voted yesterday in Tampa. I could not wait anymore. It was sweet. My precinct is a conservative one in south tampa and the booths were full with several waiting at 3 on a Thursday afternoon.
19 posted on 10/22/2010 1:54:32 PM PDT by screaminsunshine (counter revolutionary)
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To: Oldpuppymax

Rush launce operation reverse chaos yesterday to keep the Hillary supporters home.


20 posted on 10/22/2010 1:56:33 PM PDT by screaminsunshine (counter revolutionary)
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To: freespirited

http://www.floridavoterfile.com/statistics/FLORIDA.HTM

Voter Registration in Florida.

Democrats 41%
Republicans 35%
Other/indy 24%

statewide early voting
53 Republicans
33 Democrats
14 Indy

So,
Republicans +18
Democrats -8
Indy -10

is this basically how it’s been working nationally?

Let’s assume so.

So, if you want to check the polls in a particular state, figure out how many registered Republicans there are in a particular state, as a percentage, and add 18%.

Did the pollster talk to that many Republicans? If not, the poll is very possibly undercounting Republicans, and the poll is questionable on that basis.

In Delaware, it’s 47% Dems, 29% Reps, 24% indy.

Add in the 18 to Reps, subtract 8 from Dems and 10 from Indy
and you get - 47% Republicans, 39% Dems, 14% Indy. Is this what the polls say in Delaware?

Well, no, not at all.

Survey USA talked to 45% Dems, 32% Republicans, 21% Indys.
They talked to way too few Republicans and too many Dems and Indys.

Monmouth talked to more Indys (self identified?) than Democrats and more Democrats than Republicans. Roughly 31.2% Republicans. It should be, based on what we’re seeing on the ground, 47%. Short 16%.

Magellan had it at 47% Dems, 38% Reps, 15% Indy. That’s the closest to Florida. Add 9% to Reps, subtract 8% from Dems, subtract 1 from Indys.

Note that if you give 9% to Christine and take 9 away from Coons, it’s pretty much a toss up. And 10% to Christine and 10% from Coons means Christine wins.


21 posted on 10/22/2010 2:10:45 PM PDT by truthfreedom
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To: truthfreedom

I have a feeling it’s more pronounced in FL because of RATcare. Seniors are PISSED and they are VOTING.


22 posted on 10/22/2010 2:39:07 PM PDT by freespirited (This tagline dedicated to the memory of John Armor, a/k/a Congressman Billybob.)
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To: Tennessean4Bush

I heard today at the local RPOF office in Winter Park that R’s have outvoted D’s by 175k in the first 3 days of voting. That’s a big #.


23 posted on 10/22/2010 3:13:31 PM PDT by spacejunkie01
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