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Entering Final Week, The GOP Has A Death Grip On The House (90% Probability)
The Business Insider ^ | 10-24-2010 | Joe Weisenthal

Posted on 10/24/2010 4:55:30 PM PDT by blam

Entering Final Week, The GOP Has A Death Grip On The House

Joe Weisenthal
Oct. 24, 2010, 6:52 PM

According to InTrade, odds of the GOP taking over the house are now a staggering 90%.

However, it's not all roses for the Republicans:

The Democrats are still over 50% to hold the Senate. Christine O'Donnell's odds are down to 6%. In California, Barbara Boxer is at 75% to hold off Carly Fiorina. One huge scalp though: Harry Reid is just over 40% to hold his Senate seat

[snip]

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2010midterms; 2010polls; election; gop; gopcomeback; politics; representatives
I think the Juan Williams episode has even helped the conservatives.
1 posted on 10/24/2010 4:55:34 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

If odds makers knew anything about voters and campaigns, they’d quit their jobs as odds makers and make millions running campaigns.


2 posted on 10/24/2010 4:57:06 PM PDT by ElkGroveDan (Now can we forget about that old rum-runner Joe Kennedy and his progeny of philandering drunks?)
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To: blam

Would be interesting... If Reid loses but the Dems keep control, would it be Schumer or Durbin that would take control? I think either one of those nut cases only helps us in 2012.


3 posted on 10/24/2010 4:57:33 PM PDT by paul544
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To: blam

it’s not the f8cking gop nerd, it’s anybody but the establishment kapish?


4 posted on 10/24/2010 4:57:58 PM PDT by yldstrk (My heros have always been cowboys)
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To: ElkGroveDan

There’s WAYYYY more money in bookmaking than running campaigns.


5 posted on 10/24/2010 4:58:33 PM PDT by delapaz
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To: delapaz

bttt


6 posted on 10/24/2010 4:59:29 PM PDT by ConservativeMan55
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To: blam

The Teanami tide can’t be stopped.

It’s still coming!


7 posted on 10/24/2010 5:01:42 PM PDT by Freddd (CNN is down to Three Hundred Thousand viewers. But they worked for it.)
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To: blam

Keep the pressure on! We can’t slack off until the government is under control again.


8 posted on 10/24/2010 5:02:30 PM PDT by GAB-1955 (I write books, love my wife, serve my nation, and believe in the Resurrection.)
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To: ElkGroveDan
If odds makers knew anything about voters and campaigns, they’d quit their jobs as odds makers and make millions running campaigns.

You don't understand how Intrade works; there ARE no "odds makers" - the odds makers are the people making the bets themselves. If a candidate has low current odds of winning, it's not because some bookmaker has set the odds low, it's because the majority of the thousands of people placing bets think that candidate has a low chance of winning.

Such predictive markets have shown remarkable accuracy; the collective wisdom of the "crowd" is usually superior to the wisdom of individual "experts."

9 posted on 10/24/2010 5:02:30 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: blam

The Senate is going to go GOP as well.


10 posted on 10/24/2010 5:02:57 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (When the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn (Pr.29:2))
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To: fortheDeclaration

God, I hope so. I feel like we’re gonna be a seat or two short for the senate.


11 posted on 10/24/2010 5:05:17 PM PDT by chad_in_georgia
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To: blam

I know it has. The blue dogs in my circle of friends are not pleased at all with the political situation of the far left. They see the Tsunami coming and are running from lefty beach.


12 posted on 10/24/2010 5:06:51 PM PDT by eyedigress ((Old storm chaser from the west)?)
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To: Strategerist
Intrade is only as good as the suppositions guiding those investing the money.

They are not taking into account the simple fact that the Senate races cannot be seen in a vacuum.

Do they think that the Democrats are going to be devastated in Congressional races and in Governors races and NOT the Senate as well?

Watch the odds change as the election draws closer.

13 posted on 10/24/2010 5:07:17 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (When the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn (Pr.29:2))
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To: eyedigress

Mine too. One sent me an anti-Obama joke e-mail today...His way of admitting he was wrong.


14 posted on 10/24/2010 5:09:42 PM PDT by screaminsunshine (the way to win this game is not to play)
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To: ElkGroveDan
If odds makers knew anything about voters and campaigns, they’d quit their jobs as odds makers and make millions running campaigns.

"Odds makers" don't make odds, they just take bets. The bets are what the odds are calculated from; bookies, or odds makers, are neutral.

15 posted on 10/24/2010 5:10:39 PM PDT by Prokopton
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To: blam
FYI, the graph in the original posting (and the "prediction") is from InTrade. The 90% probability is based on how people are willing to bet their money, not any kind of statistical analysis.

The idea is that bettors have the same information and are making informed bets. But, emotion always figures into betting, and drags the actual "percentage" up or down.

A better statistical analysis is the Monte Carlo simulations that Nate Silver does for the NY Times:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

After 100,000 simulations, it predicts that there's only a 20% chance that the Democrats will control the House in 2011.

I can't link in the graph for the Senate, but the prediction is an 81% chance the Democrats will control at least 50 seats in the Senate (with Biden, that's enough).

16 posted on 10/24/2010 5:12:03 PM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good WOMAN (Sgt. Kimberly Munley) with a gun)
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To: fortheDeclaration

They show losses for Dems in Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Colorado. Outside of Delaware and California, and Connecticut I don’t see them showing Dems winning. If the Republicans win closer ones such as Penn, WAshington, Wisconsin, etc. they have a very good shot at 50.


17 posted on 10/24/2010 5:12:37 PM PDT by freedomrings69
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To: ElkGroveDan

I think it would be the other way around. I would rather make money betting on the races than work 18 hour days under tons of pressure to run them.


18 posted on 10/24/2010 5:13:40 PM PDT by freedomrings69
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To: fortheDeclaration
Do they think that the Democrats are going to be devastated in Congressional races and in Governors races and NOT the Senate as well?

Don't forget that the number of contested Senate seats favors the Democrats this election. However, the opposite will be true in 2012 -- if the Republicans don't screw it up, they can sweep the Senate and the Presidency.

19 posted on 10/24/2010 5:14:07 PM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good WOMAN (Sgt. Kimberly Munley) with a gun)
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To: blam

I’m not too concerned about the Senate. It’s the House where the bills involving finance originate and that’s the most important concern I have.


20 posted on 10/24/2010 5:15:12 PM PDT by OldPossum
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To: blam
The GOP Has A Death Grip On The House

If it were Democrats winning, it would read, "Utopia upon us. Forecast: Rainbows for the next 100 years." Have Democrats ever, in the minds of editors, had a "deathgrip" on anything?

21 posted on 10/24/2010 5:21:06 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
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To: justlurking
If you are a Democrat Senator and want to be a committee chairman on a responsible and/or important committee and it's 50/50 (with /Biden controlling in tie votes) you can make a deal with the Republicans the Democrats may not want to make with you. Remember, with Hairy Reed out it's Schmucky Chucky Schumer you have to deal with and he is totally unprincipled. ANY Republican majority leader is better than Chucky.

This is where RINOs come from ~ Democrats of value to Republican control in a legislative body ~ not to be confused with tired old Republicans no longer of value to the Republicans.

22 posted on 10/24/2010 5:23:46 PM PDT by muawiyah ("GIT OUT THE WAY" The Republicans are coming)
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To: justlurking
I thought the number favored the GOP both in this one and in the next one as well.

I believe there are 15 Democrat contested seats in this election.

How many GOP?

23 posted on 10/24/2010 5:29:18 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (When the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn (Pr.29:2))
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To: eyedigress; All
"The blue dogs in my circle of friends are not pleased at all with the political situation of the far left. They see the Tsunami coming and are running from lefty beach."


24 posted on 10/24/2010 5:30:29 PM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: blam

Tonight’s 60 minutes episode, which featured the plight of the educated long-term unemployed, could further damage Demonrat fortunes except among those who still blame GW Bush for everything.


25 posted on 10/24/2010 5:31:24 PM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop Barry now. He can't help himself.)
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To: justlurking

Problem is, if InTrade bettors base their bets on the same polls we see, they’re just mirroring the polls.


26 posted on 10/24/2010 5:33:13 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: blam

We should be careful. The leftist media may be exaggerating our lead to cause many of us not to bother voting. This may be a red herring.

We have to keep working very hard to get out message out. There were no PUMAs in the last election. It was a trick.

Now add in the numbers of those who will cheat and try to steal the election. We must not be complacent.


27 posted on 10/24/2010 5:34:15 PM PDT by Melian ("There is only one tragedy in the end, not to have been a saint." ~L. Bloy)
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To: musicman

What do you mean by “we”, kemosabe?


28 posted on 10/24/2010 5:47:48 PM PDT by BenKenobi
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To: luvbach1

I’m one of those, but then I also would have voted for McCain if I could.


29 posted on 10/24/2010 5:49:05 PM PDT by BenKenobi
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To: blam

Ninety percent is NOT a “death grip”. A “death grip” would be 100%. A ten percent chance is still a chance.


30 posted on 10/24/2010 6:37:09 PM PDT by raybbr (Someone who invades another country is NOT an immigrant - illegal or otherwise.)
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To: paul544

It’s Chuckie..he’s been buying votes..donating several mill to the DSCC..


31 posted on 10/24/2010 6:46:38 PM PDT by ken5050 (I don't need sex.....the government screws me every day..)
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To: blam

“I think the Juan Williams episode has even helped the conservatives.”

Yes, I’ve been thinking the Whoppi/Behar/NPR combination coming in the final weeks is having a crystalizing effect on the attitudes of the public out there.

These lefties are angry that their power is being challenged, discredited and thoroughly defeated.


32 posted on 10/24/2010 7:04:07 PM PDT by Senator Goldwater
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To: Strategerist
Such predictive markets have shown remarkable accuracy; the collective wisdom of the "crowd" is usually superior to the wisdom of individual "experts."

In this case, the "experts" set the conventional wisdom and the crowds follow.

Wisdom of crowds, c'mon. Flocks, more like.

33 posted on 10/24/2010 7:19:26 PM PDT by Crichton
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To: blam

btt


34 posted on 10/24/2010 7:30:18 PM PDT by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: ElkGroveDan

Being an odds maker carries far fewer risks. All they have to do is add up competiting bets, subtract their commission, and change the odds as the bets dictate.


35 posted on 10/24/2010 7:39:14 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: ElkGroveDan

There are no odds makers in futures markets.


36 posted on 10/24/2010 8:53:01 PM PDT by JLS (Democrats: People who won't even let you enjoy an unseasonably warm winter day.)
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To: fortheDeclaration
Watch the odds change as the election draws closer.

Agreed. Intrade is pretty accurate but ten days out is still too soon to put much stock in what they are saying. Back in January, it wasn't until three days before the election (Jan 16) that Intrade had Scott Brown pulling even with Martha Coakley. By election day morning, Intrade had Scott Brown at 79%.

A week from Tuesday, Intrade will have the Congress at close to 100% to go Republican and the Senate at least 75% to go Republican.

37 posted on 10/24/2010 9:03:18 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (I am 38 days away from outliving Curly Howard)
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To: SamAdams76

Thank you for that information!


38 posted on 10/24/2010 9:54:09 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (When the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn (Pr.29:2))
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To: Melian

Oh, we are going to vote, don’t worry about that!


39 posted on 10/25/2010 3:36:43 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (When the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn (Pr.29:2))
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To: paul544

I think the money would be on Dirt Bag Durbin, since he (delusionally or not) will appear to be more centrist than Shumer et.al.


40 posted on 10/25/2010 3:46:45 AM PDT by catfish1957 (Hey algore...You'll have to pry the steering wheel of my 317 HP V8 truck from my cold dead hands)
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