Skip to comments.Entering Final Week, The GOP Has A Death Grip On The House (90% Probability)
Posted on 10/24/2010 4:55:30 PM PDT by blam
Entering Final Week, The GOP Has A Death Grip On The House
Oct. 24, 2010, 6:52 PM
According to InTrade, odds of the GOP taking over the house are now a staggering 90%.
However, it's not all roses for the Republicans:
The Democrats are still over 50% to hold the Senate. Christine O'Donnell's odds are down to 6%. In California, Barbara Boxer is at 75% to hold off Carly Fiorina. One huge scalp though: Harry Reid is just over 40% to hold his Senate seat
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
If odds makers knew anything about voters and campaigns, they’d quit their jobs as odds makers and make millions running campaigns.
Would be interesting... If Reid loses but the Dems keep control, would it be Schumer or Durbin that would take control? I think either one of those nut cases only helps us in 2012.
it’s not the f8cking gop nerd, it’s anybody but the establishment kapish?
There’s WAYYYY more money in bookmaking than running campaigns.
The Teanami tide can’t be stopped.
It’s still coming!
Keep the pressure on! We can’t slack off until the government is under control again.
You don't understand how Intrade works; there ARE no "odds makers" - the odds makers are the people making the bets themselves. If a candidate has low current odds of winning, it's not because some bookmaker has set the odds low, it's because the majority of the thousands of people placing bets think that candidate has a low chance of winning.
Such predictive markets have shown remarkable accuracy; the collective wisdom of the "crowd" is usually superior to the wisdom of individual "experts."
The Senate is going to go GOP as well.
God, I hope so. I feel like we’re gonna be a seat or two short for the senate.
I know it has. The blue dogs in my circle of friends are not pleased at all with the political situation of the far left. They see the Tsunami coming and are running from lefty beach.
They are not taking into account the simple fact that the Senate races cannot be seen in a vacuum.
Do they think that the Democrats are going to be devastated in Congressional races and in Governors races and NOT the Senate as well?
Watch the odds change as the election draws closer.
Mine too. One sent me an anti-Obama joke e-mail today...His way of admitting he was wrong.
"Odds makers" don't make odds, they just take bets. The bets are what the odds are calculated from; bookies, or odds makers, are neutral.
The idea is that bettors have the same information and are making informed bets. But, emotion always figures into betting, and drags the actual "percentage" up or down.
A better statistical analysis is the Monte Carlo simulations that Nate Silver does for the NY Times:
After 100,000 simulations, it predicts that there's only a 20% chance that the Democrats will control the House in 2011.
I can't link in the graph for the Senate, but the prediction is an 81% chance the Democrats will control at least 50 seats in the Senate (with Biden, that's enough).
They show losses for Dems in Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Colorado. Outside of Delaware and California, and Connecticut I don’t see them showing Dems winning. If the Republicans win closer ones such as Penn, WAshington, Wisconsin, etc. they have a very good shot at 50.
I think it would be the other way around. I would rather make money betting on the races than work 18 hour days under tons of pressure to run them.
Don't forget that the number of contested Senate seats favors the Democrats this election. However, the opposite will be true in 2012 -- if the Republicans don't screw it up, they can sweep the Senate and the Presidency.
I’m not too concerned about the Senate. It’s the House where the bills involving finance originate and that’s the most important concern I have.
If it were Democrats winning, it would read, "Utopia upon us. Forecast: Rainbows for the next 100 years." Have Democrats ever, in the minds of editors, had a "deathgrip" on anything?
This is where RINOs come from ~ Democrats of value to Republican control in a legislative body ~ not to be confused with tired old Republicans no longer of value to the Republicans.
I believe there are 15 Democrat contested seats in this election.
How many GOP?
Tonight’s 60 minutes episode, which featured the plight of the educated long-term unemployed, could further damage Demonrat fortunes except among those who still blame GW Bush for everything.
Problem is, if InTrade bettors base their bets on the same polls we see, they’re just mirroring the polls.
We should be careful. The leftist media may be exaggerating our lead to cause many of us not to bother voting. This may be a red herring.
We have to keep working very hard to get out message out. There were no PUMAs in the last election. It was a trick.
Now add in the numbers of those who will cheat and try to steal the election. We must not be complacent.
What do you mean by “we”, kemosabe?
I’m one of those, but then I also would have voted for McCain if I could.
Ninety percent is NOT a “death grip”. A “death grip” would be 100%. A ten percent chance is still a chance.
It’s Chuckie..he’s been buying votes..donating several mill to the DSCC..
“I think the Juan Williams episode has even helped the conservatives.”
Yes, I’ve been thinking the Whoppi/Behar/NPR combination coming in the final weeks is having a crystalizing effect on the attitudes of the public out there.
These lefties are angry that their power is being challenged, discredited and thoroughly defeated.
In this case, the "experts" set the conventional wisdom and the crowds follow.
Wisdom of crowds, c'mon. Flocks, more like.
Being an odds maker carries far fewer risks. All they have to do is add up competiting bets, subtract their commission, and change the odds as the bets dictate.
There are no odds makers in futures markets.
Agreed. Intrade is pretty accurate but ten days out is still too soon to put much stock in what they are saying. Back in January, it wasn't until three days before the election (Jan 16) that Intrade had Scott Brown pulling even with Martha Coakley. By election day morning, Intrade had Scott Brown at 79%.
A week from Tuesday, Intrade will have the Congress at close to 100% to go Republican and the Senate at least 75% to go Republican.
Thank you for that information!
Oh, we are going to vote, don’t worry about that!
I think the money would be on Dirt Bag Durbin, since he (delusionally or not) will appear to be more centrist than Shumer et.al.