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Entering Final Week, The GOP Has A Death Grip On The House (90% Probability)
The Business Insider ^ | 10-24-2010 | Joe Weisenthal

Posted on 10/24/2010 4:55:30 PM PDT by blam

Entering Final Week, The GOP Has A Death Grip On The House

Joe Weisenthal
Oct. 24, 2010, 6:52 PM

According to InTrade, odds of the GOP taking over the house are now a staggering 90%.

However, it's not all roses for the Republicans:

The Democrats are still over 50% to hold the Senate. Christine O'Donnell's odds are down to 6%. In California, Barbara Boxer is at 75% to hold off Carly Fiorina. One huge scalp though: Harry Reid is just over 40% to hold his Senate seat

[snip]

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2010midterms; 2010polls; election; gop; gopcomeback; politics; representatives
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I think the Juan Williams episode has even helped the conservatives.
1 posted on 10/24/2010 4:55:34 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

If odds makers knew anything about voters and campaigns, they’d quit their jobs as odds makers and make millions running campaigns.


2 posted on 10/24/2010 4:57:06 PM PDT by ElkGroveDan (Now can we forget about that old rum-runner Joe Kennedy and his progeny of philandering drunks?)
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To: blam

Would be interesting... If Reid loses but the Dems keep control, would it be Schumer or Durbin that would take control? I think either one of those nut cases only helps us in 2012.


3 posted on 10/24/2010 4:57:33 PM PDT by paul544
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To: blam

it’s not the f8cking gop nerd, it’s anybody but the establishment kapish?


4 posted on 10/24/2010 4:57:58 PM PDT by yldstrk (My heros have always been cowboys)
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To: ElkGroveDan

There’s WAYYYY more money in bookmaking than running campaigns.


5 posted on 10/24/2010 4:58:33 PM PDT by delapaz
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To: delapaz

bttt


6 posted on 10/24/2010 4:59:29 PM PDT by ConservativeMan55
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To: blam

The Teanami tide can’t be stopped.

It’s still coming!


7 posted on 10/24/2010 5:01:42 PM PDT by Freddd (CNN is down to Three Hundred Thousand viewers. But they worked for it.)
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To: blam

Keep the pressure on! We can’t slack off until the government is under control again.


8 posted on 10/24/2010 5:02:30 PM PDT by GAB-1955 (I write books, love my wife, serve my nation, and believe in the Resurrection.)
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To: ElkGroveDan
If odds makers knew anything about voters and campaigns, they’d quit their jobs as odds makers and make millions running campaigns.

You don't understand how Intrade works; there ARE no "odds makers" - the odds makers are the people making the bets themselves. If a candidate has low current odds of winning, it's not because some bookmaker has set the odds low, it's because the majority of the thousands of people placing bets think that candidate has a low chance of winning.

Such predictive markets have shown remarkable accuracy; the collective wisdom of the "crowd" is usually superior to the wisdom of individual "experts."

9 posted on 10/24/2010 5:02:30 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: blam

The Senate is going to go GOP as well.


10 posted on 10/24/2010 5:02:57 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (When the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn (Pr.29:2))
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To: fortheDeclaration

God, I hope so. I feel like we’re gonna be a seat or two short for the senate.


11 posted on 10/24/2010 5:05:17 PM PDT by chad_in_georgia
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To: blam

I know it has. The blue dogs in my circle of friends are not pleased at all with the political situation of the far left. They see the Tsunami coming and are running from lefty beach.


12 posted on 10/24/2010 5:06:51 PM PDT by eyedigress ((Old storm chaser from the west)?)
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To: Strategerist
Intrade is only as good as the suppositions guiding those investing the money.

They are not taking into account the simple fact that the Senate races cannot be seen in a vacuum.

Do they think that the Democrats are going to be devastated in Congressional races and in Governors races and NOT the Senate as well?

Watch the odds change as the election draws closer.

13 posted on 10/24/2010 5:07:17 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (When the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn (Pr.29:2))
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To: eyedigress

Mine too. One sent me an anti-Obama joke e-mail today...His way of admitting he was wrong.


14 posted on 10/24/2010 5:09:42 PM PDT by screaminsunshine (the way to win this game is not to play)
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To: ElkGroveDan
If odds makers knew anything about voters and campaigns, they’d quit their jobs as odds makers and make millions running campaigns.

"Odds makers" don't make odds, they just take bets. The bets are what the odds are calculated from; bookies, or odds makers, are neutral.

15 posted on 10/24/2010 5:10:39 PM PDT by Prokopton
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To: blam
FYI, the graph in the original posting (and the "prediction") is from InTrade. The 90% probability is based on how people are willing to bet their money, not any kind of statistical analysis.

The idea is that bettors have the same information and are making informed bets. But, emotion always figures into betting, and drags the actual "percentage" up or down.

A better statistical analysis is the Monte Carlo simulations that Nate Silver does for the NY Times:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

After 100,000 simulations, it predicts that there's only a 20% chance that the Democrats will control the House in 2011.

I can't link in the graph for the Senate, but the prediction is an 81% chance the Democrats will control at least 50 seats in the Senate (with Biden, that's enough).

16 posted on 10/24/2010 5:12:03 PM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good WOMAN (Sgt. Kimberly Munley) with a gun)
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To: fortheDeclaration

They show losses for Dems in Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Colorado. Outside of Delaware and California, and Connecticut I don’t see them showing Dems winning. If the Republicans win closer ones such as Penn, WAshington, Wisconsin, etc. they have a very good shot at 50.


17 posted on 10/24/2010 5:12:37 PM PDT by freedomrings69
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To: ElkGroveDan

I think it would be the other way around. I would rather make money betting on the races than work 18 hour days under tons of pressure to run them.


18 posted on 10/24/2010 5:13:40 PM PDT by freedomrings69
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To: fortheDeclaration
Do they think that the Democrats are going to be devastated in Congressional races and in Governors races and NOT the Senate as well?

Don't forget that the number of contested Senate seats favors the Democrats this election. However, the opposite will be true in 2012 -- if the Republicans don't screw it up, they can sweep the Senate and the Presidency.

19 posted on 10/24/2010 5:14:07 PM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good WOMAN (Sgt. Kimberly Munley) with a gun)
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To: blam

I’m not too concerned about the Senate. It’s the House where the bills involving finance originate and that’s the most important concern I have.


20 posted on 10/24/2010 5:15:12 PM PDT by OldPossum
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