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Early Voting Numbers
AJC ^ | 10/25/10 | Jamie Dupree

Posted on 10/24/2010 11:32:47 PM PDT by freespirited

Everyone in the political world is trying to figure out who is going to win on Election Day, so what better to whet your appetite than some data from states about early voting.

This material comes from a professor at George Mason University in Virginia who specializes in early voting, as Dr. Michael McDonald runs a web site that posts early voting data, some of which includes a breakdown by party of who is voting.

For example in Florida, almost 800,000 votes are already in, and when you look at the party breakdown, you see that 52.8% of the ballots are in from Republicans to 33.7% for Democrats.

I don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize that GOP votes are coming in at a 19% higher clip than the Democrats in Florida.

Go back two years, when the Democrats did very well in Florida with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot, and you will see that Democrats had an 8% edge in early voting in the Sunshine State.

So if the current numbers hold on, then the GOP would have a 27-point swing in their favor in early voting numbers.

Does that sound like something we've been calling the "enthusiasm gap?"

Granted, just because one party votes doesn't mean that party is getting all those votes. But McDonald says it's not too far off.

"People who self-identify with a particular party, who register with a particular party, are much more likely to vote for that party," McDonald said in an interview.

"It gives you some clues, but of course, it's not a definitive end-all to what the election outcome is going to be," he added.

Some states don't publicly post such data, so McDonald has been able to figure out a number of ways to get access to it, like in Georgia, which has had over 300,000 votes come in so far via early voting and absentee.

Other states publish a bevy of information, like California, which makes you wish they just ran a scoreboard of all votes every day, so we could watch this dern election like a football scoreboard for a full month.

As for some data from key states, Republicans are doing well in Colorado, where 41.8% of early votes have come in from the GOP, versus 36.5% for Democrats and 21% for Independents.

Compare that to 2008, when Democrats had 37.7% of the early votes, Republicans had 35.9% and Independents were at 26.4%.

In Nevada, where Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) is fighting hard against Republican Sharron Angle, Republicans have 42.5% of the early votes to 42.4% for Democrats, with Independents at 15%.

In that state, there are two big counties, Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, and Washoe County, which is where Reno is located.

In Clark County, Democrats have the edge in early votes at 46.5% to 37.8% for the GOP. In 2008, the spread was 52-30% for the Dems.

In Washoe County, Republicans have the edge in early votes at 46.2% to 40% for the Democrats. In 2008, Democrats had the edge in early votes from Washoe County, 47.1-35.3%.

As for bright spots for Democrats, in Iowa they have a 45.9-38.1% edge in early votes.

And in Ohio, while there are not numbers broken down by party affiliation, big numbers of votes are already in from two Democratic strongholds, Cuyahoga County around Cleveland and Franklin County around Columbus.

Put this site on your favorites and keep checking it over the next eight days. I love stats, and this is a good one:

http://is.gd/ggOOv


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 0pansy2012; 2010; 2010midterms; earlyvoting; midterms
In Nevada, where Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) is fighting hard against Republican Sharron Angle, Republicans have 42.5% of the early votes to 42.4% for Democrats, with Independents at 15%.

Good night, Harry.

1 posted on 10/24/2010 11:32:50 PM PDT by freespirited
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To: freespirited
More numbers:

=======================


2 posted on 10/24/2010 11:34:42 PM PDT by freespirited (This tagline dedicated to the memory of John Armor, a/k/a Congressman Billybob.)
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To: freespirited

Are you kidding? That’s not nearly enough to clear the 5% democrat voter fraud gap.


3 posted on 10/24/2010 11:36:32 PM PDT by douginthearmy
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To: freespirited

West Virginia? I thought we had that? of course..it ain’t over till it’s over...


4 posted on 10/24/2010 11:44:40 PM PDT by Aria ( "Remember, attitudes are contagious, so make sure yours are worth catching." Sarah Palin 9-18-2010)
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To: freespirited

Good Post.

Thanks.


5 posted on 10/24/2010 11:57:00 PM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: freespirited

These numbers look good overall, but I can’t understand why some states would have a Dem edge in a supposed Republican tsunami. The only thing I can think of is these could be heavy union states where they have a strong early GOTV effort that is intentionally designed to skew these numbers and give the appearance of enthusiasm on the Dem side.

It’s either that or the wave may not be as big as we had hoped :(


6 posted on 10/24/2010 11:58:07 PM PDT by lquist1
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To: freespirited

Dang. Nothing from Hawaii. We’ve got at least a couple of very close races, early voting, and a ton of annoying Barack Obama ads.


7 posted on 10/24/2010 11:58:49 PM PDT by BuckyKat (Green is the new red.)
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To: freespirited

Trying to make sense of the numbers is like navigating in the fog without a compass. We have no idea how many democrats are voting Republican or what the independents are doing. We also don’t know that the early turnout won’t be offset by lower numbers on election day.

More and more districts are in play every day and that tells me the wave is building. Don’t let anyone be fooled by phony polling in the last week. If voters use the healthcare plan and the stimulus votes to determine who they are voting for, all predictions and bets are off and some previously unpolled and “safe” democrats will be looking for jobs.


8 posted on 10/25/2010 12:08:14 AM PDT by excopconservative
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To: freespirited

i’m not as optimistic. We need to add a few percentage points to the democrat side for fraud


9 posted on 10/25/2010 12:17:26 AM PDT by 4rcane
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To: freespirited

I was looking at North Carolina. On the stats for the 2008 early voting, there’s stats about early voting 2004 North Carolina.

This year the Republicans in North Carolina are doing 5 points better than in 2004. George Bush in 2004 was the best Republican performance Presidential since Reagan in 1984.

There was a very tight linkage between party turnout and presidential performance 2004 and 2008.

Obama outperformed Kerry net 12.5 points.
Early voting Dems were up 2.8 Republicans were down 7.2 Indys up 4.4.

If there was a presidential race this year - Republican 59% - Democrat 41%.

North Carolina
56 - 43.6 bush kerry - 12.4 (5.1) = 17.5
49.7-49.38 obama mccain -
2008 2004 2010
Dem 51.4% 48.6% 44.3%
Rep 30.2% 37.4% 38.2%
None 18.5% 14.1% 17.4%
Best Results in North Carolina since 1984 Reagan Landslide.


10 posted on 10/25/2010 12:55:04 AM PDT by truthfreedom
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To: lquist1
No, Democrats just usually vote early.

Republicans like to vote on election day.

So, the early voting should go the Democrats even in a GOP tsunaumi.

11 posted on 10/25/2010 1:21:48 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (When the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn (Pr.29:2))
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To: excopconservative
We also don’t know that the early turnout won’t be offset by lower numbers on election day.

Very unlikely, GOP voters are very anxious to vote, so it looks like the numbers could equal that of a Presidential year.

12 posted on 10/25/2010 1:23:10 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (When the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn (Pr.29:2))
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To: freespirited

Iowa will be IOUA if they lose the freebie farm welfare and actually have to grow crops.


13 posted on 10/25/2010 1:34:36 AM PDT by screaminsunshine (the way to win this game is not to play)
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To: lquist1

Its by registration. Its not telling you who someone actually voted for.


14 posted on 10/25/2010 1:40:01 AM PDT by wiggen (The teacher card. When the racism card just won't work.)
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To: freespirited

“So if the current numbers hold on, then the GOP would have a 27-point swing in their favor in early voting numbers.”

That is assuming that the electronic voting machine process is not rigged. It would be nice to see the actual vote totals. I bet we never will see them in stand alone form.


15 posted on 10/25/2010 1:53:18 AM PDT by Revel
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To: 4rcane

...”We need to add a few percentage points to the democrat side for fraud.”...

This is very concerning..What would happen if it became obvious to the people that widespread fraud had occurred all over the nation, literally stealing the government?


16 posted on 10/25/2010 1:53:40 AM PDT by jazzlite (esat)
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To: TommyDale

ping #10


17 posted on 10/25/2010 2:00:15 AM PDT by Liz (Nov 2 will be one more stitch in Obama's political shroud.)
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To: freespirited
As for bright spots for Democrats, in Iowa they have a 45.9-38.1% edge in early votes.

IOWA? Would someone please explain what is going on in this prairie state!

18 posted on 10/25/2010 2:24:51 AM PDT by REPANDPROUDOFIT (General, sir, it's ok to call me "ma'am"!)
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To: REPANDPROUDOFIT
There could very well be a lot of Democrats voting Republican. Bulldogs, Reagan Democrats, farmers, even women, everybody but minorities and public employees might want to send a message if they feel that they have been had and defrauded by their own party.

If you know your Huckleberry Finn, you know that was the reaction of the people in Arkansas to being defrauded and presumed upon.


19 posted on 10/25/2010 2:50:02 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: nathanbedford
Ok - you got me with the Huck Finn statement. It's been a long time since I read it.

I simply think of these mid-western farm states as highly conservative with strong family values. It seems like they would be highly offended by Obama and the Congress's disdain of traditional American values. Am I misreading the populace? Or is it like someone says above, that it has to do with the farm subsidies?

20 posted on 10/25/2010 2:56:36 AM PDT by REPANDPROUDOFIT (General, sir, it's ok to call me "ma'am"!)
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To: freespirited
If I'm correct this shows what party voters are registered to but now HOW they voted. Where I live people that are registered dimocrat have voted republican for decades.
21 posted on 10/25/2010 2:58:29 AM PDT by MagnoliaB
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To: MagnoliaB

You’re right. But there is no way for us to know how people voted at this point in the process.


22 posted on 10/25/2010 3:02:27 AM PDT by freespirited (This tagline dedicated to the memory of John Armor, a/k/a Congressman Billybob.)
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To: lquist1

That spreadsheet tells us ‘the fix is in’.


23 posted on 10/25/2010 3:10:25 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: jazzlite

“This is very concerning..What would happen if it became obvious to the people that widespread fraud had occurred all over the nation, literally stealing the government?”

They’ve stolen everything else over the last two years, I’m not sure why I should be surprised. This won’t be over until they’re all tar, feathered and run out on a rail.


24 posted on 10/25/2010 3:41:45 AM PDT by WKUHilltopper (Fix bayonets!)
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To: freespirited

Sorry I am a Registered Democrat and I have Not Voted that way for 30 years


25 posted on 10/25/2010 3:51:22 AM PDT by ballplayer
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To: REPANDPROUDOFIT

I thought Terry Branstad was ahead in the race for IA gov. in every poll. If Dems have this big of a lead in early voting either a lot of them are voting for Branstad, or perhaps there are just more Democrat voters there so naturally they would be turning out in larger numbers?


26 posted on 10/25/2010 4:06:59 AM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: truthfreedom

Lets just hope 25,000 of them don’t vote 3rd party (Barr in 08) like they did in 2008 - giving NC to Obama.


27 posted on 10/25/2010 4:12:40 AM PDT by PeteB570 (Islam is the sea in which the terrorist shark swims. It aids & comforts the shark on it's journey.)
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To: jazzlite

Nothing.


28 posted on 10/25/2010 4:22:20 AM PDT by Gadsden1st
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To: freespirited

I think the comparison should be made over 2006 rather than 2008 as that was a presidential election year. There are larger turnouts during presidential years as opposed to non presidential years. The same trend may be present in those years but I think it would be meaningful.

Texas data for the top 15 counties indicates that the total will be up over 2006 but will fall significantly short of the 2008 number. That trend is typical for years back in Texas that I have looked at.

Example Texas has just over 13% turnout of early voting/mail in ballots during non presidential years 2006 and 2002. Whereas it had over 42% in 2008.


29 posted on 10/25/2010 5:36:06 AM PDT by deport (TEXAS -- Early Voting begins OCT. 18, 2010 (vote early and often)
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To: freespirited; devolve; PhilDragoo

**Good night, Harry.**

Man, I HOPE that is right!

I would love to be rid of Whorehouse Harry once and for all!


30 posted on 10/25/2010 5:47:17 AM PDT by MeekOneGOP (2008: The year the Media died. --Sean Hannity, regarding Barack HUSSEIN ObaMao's treatment ...)
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To: deport

2008 is the best data we have because early voting really didn’t take hold until 2008. It’s going to take a few election cycles to really pin it down so we can compare apples to apples.


31 posted on 10/25/2010 6:14:25 AM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (The worst is behind us. Unfortunately it is really well endowed.)
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To: perfect_rovian_storm

In person early voting has been in place in Texas for several election cycles so that is my experience. I don’t know when other states placed it into effect. But my point is based upon voting patterns there are normally less voters in non presidential elections. The numbers may actually favor the Republicans more if it could be compared to an off year. In the end it will be what it will be regardless of the cycle.


32 posted on 10/25/2010 6:20:38 AM PDT by deport (TEXAS -- Early Voting begins OCT. 18, 2010 (vote early and often)
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To: freespirited
For example in Florida, almost 800,000 votes are already in, and when you look at the party breakdown, you see that 52.8% of the ballots are in from Republicans to 33.7% for Democrats.

I don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize that GOP votes are coming in at a 19% higher clip than the Democrats in Florida.

No rocket scientists required, but a basic knowledge of math and ratios is required to realize that 52.8% vs 33.7% is a 56.7% HIGHER CLIP NOT 19% WHICH IS JUST THE NUMERICAL DIFFERENCE.

Man, I hate it when rocket scientists pose as mathematicians.

33 posted on 10/25/2010 6:32:58 AM PDT by USS Alaska
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To: USS Alaska

this drives me crazy too. I see it all the time ... even saw it in the Stanford U student newspaper.


34 posted on 10/25/2010 7:34:20 AM PDT by freespirited (This tagline dedicated to the memory of John Armor, a/k/a Congressman Billybob.)
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To: potlatch; MeekOneGOP











35 posted on 10/25/2010 3:00:22 PM PDT by devolve (. . . . . WE'LL ALWAYS HAVE . . . . BOCA BEACH . . . .)
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To: devolve

Cute posting devolve. I hope Harry’s shoe bomb goes off!


36 posted on 10/25/2010 3:38:12 PM PDT by potlatch
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To: potlatch

.

It took a while -

But I believe El Rushbo, FNC, FR and other sites finally woke up some of those that ran out of Obama’s unemployment stash.....

- O’Reilly appears to be going more aggressive and Conservative - He is going after the “Muslim Threat” right now -

- Another CAIR pimp on O’Reilly’s show right now - Refusing to answer Bill’s questions by asking another question:

“How many other countries besides America have Muslims attacked?”

.

O’Reilly goes right after the CAIR (democrat shill) spinner -

.


37 posted on 10/25/2010 5:22:10 PM PDT by devolve (. . . . . WE'LL ALWAYS HAVE . . . . BOCA BEACH . . . .)
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To: devolve
I posted to you on another thread about O’Reilly and who all he has on. I've always liked O’Reilly and I put up with all the haters and just ignored them.

He has gone overboard on trying to be ‘fair and balanced’ too often and there were times he didn't know all the facts. But he's not bad. One week they like someone but let them say a disagreeable word and they are suddenly hated.

Same thing going on with birthers on the Lakin thread, fighting, fighting, name calling. I've learned to walk away and avoid those who annoy me, lol. It works!

38 posted on 10/25/2010 5:39:51 PM PDT by potlatch
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