Skip to comments.Politico poll shows independents flocking to GOP (Late October Poll )
Posted on 10/25/2010 12:46:50 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Politicos new poll reinforces the fact that momentum remains strong with fired-up Republicans, mainly because of fired-up independents. The numbers look daunting for Democrats with just one week to go before Election Day, and in many places, past the time many have already voted. And its not as though the Democrats didnt have warnings that their massive expansion of government wouldnt have dire consequences:
Expressing deep dissatisfaction with President Obamas policies and performance, independents have increasingly sided with conservatives in the belief that government grew too large, too fast under Obamaand that it can no longer be trusted. In the final pre-election Battleground Poll, Republicans hold a 14-point edge among independents and lead overall, 47 percent to 42 percent, in the generic ballot match up.
Its the flight of independents that presents the biggest challenge for Democrats. Independents helped lift Democrats to power in 2006 and pushed Obama into office in 2008. But in last years Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, these voters registered grave concerns and did it again by breaking for Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) in his upset victory in January.
Instead of heeding the warnings, Democrats proceeded with the $1 trillion health care law and banked on an economic recovery that hasnt come.
On health care: 62 percent of independents hold an unfavorable view of the new law (compared to 52 percent overall). Only six percent of independents view the legislation very favorably.
On the economy: 66 percent of independents say the recovery legislation is not working (compared to 57 percent overall). The percentage saying the stimulus is not working spiked 12 points since Labor Day.
The poll itself actually shows milder splits than others, such as Gallup, in the generic ballot and the split among independents. The GOP wins the generic ballot by six points, 48/42, and independents break their way by 14. Those are the consistent numbers from the Battleground poll this cycle, though. Five weeks ago, the same pollster had the generic ballot at 47/43, and the previous poll to that had it at 43/43 even. The idea that Democrats have staged some sort of comeback has no basis, and right now the best they can do is to hope most people voted early before their position eroded even further.
On favorability, the news gets worse for Democrats. Barack Obama is now underwater in this measure, 46/51. The Democratic Party has slipped below the GOP, 42/50 to 50/41, respectively. The Tea Party does better than Democrats, too, at 41/38. Interestingly, Obamas job approval is very closely linked to his favorability now, 45/50, with 42% strongly disapproving. His personal likability as a distinct advantage seems to have dissipated when asked as part of a series of other people and institutions, although a follow-up question asking specifically about Obama as a person generated a 65/24 response.
Obama has a bigger problem on the issues, as do Congressional Democrats. The poll shows a dead heat between the GOP and Democrats on traditionally Democratic issues like health care and Social Security. The GOP has significant leads on both when framed as a question between the GOP and Obama, with leads of 49/42 on health care and 47/39 on Social Security. The GOP also beats Obama and the Democrats on the deficit (50/34, 51/37), the economy ( 48/42, 46/45), and sharing your values (44/43 , 46/44). Job creation is a dead heat between Republicans and Democrats in Congress, but the GOP leads by 11 points when pitted against Obama.
Not surprisingly, this translates into Obamas re-elect numbers. Only 30% will definitely vote for Obama in 2012, while 35% have already decided to vote against him. Adding in probables, the re-elect split goes to 40/46, and with leaners 42/48. Dont expect to see Obama on the trail much this week with those numbers.
I’m starting to think most of these races might end up about 3 pts better for the GOP than the polls are showing, similar to Christie’s showing in NJ last year.
The Republican pollster’s summary of the results, which you can find at Politico, reveals that among likely voters, the lead in this poll is twelve points. It’s interesting and revealing that all the major pollsters, save Newsweek, are aligning in the nine to twelve point range. Plus, they all are at pains to point out that among the very most likely voters, the Republican lead is even larger. We could have an historical blow out. First item of business: defund the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. That would set the tone.
OBAMA---THE FLOP OF AGES Ohaha was electorally castrated when he invested time, money and WH resources in NJ 2009 Nov. The NJ race was considered a "squeaker" that would go on till all hours. HOWEVER, the Repub was declared the winner two hours after the polls closed with a comfortable 4-point margin (would have been higher were it not for Dem voter fraud). Coakley conceded 45 min after the Mass polls closed.
THE OBAMA SLAPDOWN Ohaha was heavly invested in the 2009 NJ gubernatorial race. Pulling out all the stops made Ohaha a VERY good target for voters disgusted with Ohahas policies.
The NY Times reported:
(a) every TV ad incumbent governor Corzine put on the air was screened by Obama's WH team.
(b) Corzine's aides gave the WH daily briefings.
(c) Obamas pollsters took over for Corzines polling team,
(d) White House operatives were on the ground for internal strategy sessions,
(e) White House operatives were orchestrating obscure pep rallies with Latinos (kept secret from voters),
(f) Ohaha campaigned in the state three times, Biden was there twice.
(g) Ohaha TV ads ran relentlessly in costly NY media markets.
(h) The crooked NJ Democrat Machine was also running at warp speed.
OBAMA WAS DESPERATE FOR NJ's CORZINE TO WIN.
>> Incumbent Dem Jon Corzine (the wealthy loser) outspent the Repub winner about 4-1.
>> New Jersey has a huge Democratic registration.
>> Corzine bragged he had 20,000 paid union helpers on the ground election day to get out the vote.
>> There was a third party candidate siphoning off Republican votes.
>> Corzine had the power of incumbency.
>> Corzine had the power of a crooked Democrat Machine cooking the vote.
>> Ohaha hid $17.5 BILLION stimlulus in New Jersey.....for Corzine's reelection campaign.
And still Corzine lost decisively.
THE UPSHOT The WH's lack of political savvy was glaringly on display. According to Ohaha's slimy Press Secretary, Robert Gibbs, Ohaha was "busy with other matters" election night and "wasn't really concerned" with NJ election results...an indication the WH was sucking up valium and vodka in order to anesthetize themselves from the aftermath.....trying to convince themselves the election was not a referendum on Obama.
The Obama WH's involvement in Corzines campaign was political stupidity at its nadir and put an end to Obabas hopes for a permanent Democratic majority. Despite the fact that the WH was heavily invested in every aspect of Corzine's NJ campaign. Obama also gifted Corzine w/ $17.5 BILLION stimulus that according to the AP Press, simply disappeared.....never to be seen or heard of again once it hit Jersey. Then came the Mass earthquake.
For Dems, hope springs eternal as Obama finances endangered Dems subrosa with unspent stim.
I do not like this Uncle Sam,
I do not like his health care scam.
I do not like these dirty crooks,
or how they lie and cook the books.
I do not like when Congress steals,
I do not like their secret deals.
I do not like this speaker Nan ,
I do not like this ‘YES, WE CAN’.
I do not like this spending spree-—
I’m smart, I know that nothing’s free.
I do not like your smug replies,
when I complain about your lies.
I do not like this kind of hope.
I do not like it.
Nope, nope, nope!
Go green... recycle Congress in 2010!
Hussein’s first post-election initiative will be that of creating voters—er, I mean CITIZENS-of the 40 or so million illegals in the nation. Ignorant, uneducated, welfare recipients and single mothers...the PERFECT democrat voter profile. And Hussein will do this by executive order if AT ALL possible.
The Democrats talk about rallying their base, but the fact is that they have lost the independent vote.
A massive wave is coming, that is why Obama is in Blue States, not Red ones, hoping to limit it's damage.
That is what his attack on Arizona is all about!
The Mayor of LA is Hispanic and the Legislature in Sacramento has a sizable group of Hispanics.
I like to wait until election day to vote, but I just couldn’t wait any longer so I voted today. It felt SOOOO good!
Prepare yourselves for 2 yrs. of being repeatedly called Racists at 6 and 11, and all morning long on Sundays.
I hope your right.
“The Tea Party does better than Democrats, too, at 41/38. “
We don’t see that comparison very often in the media.
Then again, I suppose he could issue the order and dare the congress or the courts to man up and do something about it.
We are immune to those playground tactics. Now, the GOP, on the other hand, had better grow some gonads!
Forget the phony polls showing races are tightening. They’re not. They’re designed to get the (few remaining) Dem faithful to the polls. It’s not going to matter. A GOP sweep, with the help of disgruntled, disillusioned independents, is coming.
Not me. I pulled a 1979 Veuve Cliquot Ponsardin I've been bogarting for decades. Tough as it's been, I'm going to vote and pop it on Nov. 2nd. And I'll raise a glass to you, Tanker, and all the rest of our FReeper brethren!
(Yes, some rednecks rathole wine.)
Oh, I’m gonna be popping a good bottle myself!
I don't want to jinx things, but I have the same feeling. Turnout could change the result dramatically from the polls, especially distorting is the fact that motivation was very high for the Dems in 2006,extremely high for the Dems in 2008, and now insanely high for the Conservatives in 2010.
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