Skip to comments.Poll: GOP Challenger Leads Rep. Scott Murphy In New York
Posted on 10/26/2010 12:19:28 PM PDT by neverdem
Republican Chris Gibson has catapulted ahead of Democratic Rep. Scott Murphy in the race for the upstate New York's 20th congressional district, according to an independent poll released Tuesday.
The survey found that Gibson was leading Murphy 51-42 percent, reversing a 17 point deficit from last month, according to the poll by the Siena College Research Institute. The survey found that Gibson was now drawing strong support from Republicans and also was leading among independents, in the district that includes a number of counties around Albany.
The district is one of several upstate New York districts won by Democrats in the last two cycles that the Republican Party and outside conservative groups have targeted this year. It's also one that CQ Politics recently moved from Democratic to Tossup.
The poll found that Murphy's favorability ratings have fallen from 56 percent to 45 percent since September while Gibson has seen his favorability rating rise to 46 percent from 22 percent.
"The Gibson campaign has certainly been more successful in creating a negative view of Murphy than the Murphy campaign has been in trying to create a negative image of Gibson, " said Steven Greenberg, poll director.
The poll also found that President Obama's popularity in the district has fallen. But Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who previously represented the district and is now running for reelection to the Senate, remains popular with the district's voters. The survey was conducted Oct. 23-25 with telephone calls to 676 likely voters. The margin of error is 3.8 percent.
Yow. Looks like the big wave is starting to break.
Yikes! CA 20 is breaking the same way...over 100 seats if this trend continues.
“Yikes! CA 20 is breaking the same way...over 100 seats if this trend continues.”
If so we can party like it is ‘94. 1894, that is.
FReepmail me if you want on or off my New York ping list.
Yes, things are starting to break in upstate NY. It is wonderful to witness!
Paladino's campaign manager didn't know about military rank and how it works so PALADINO IS BAD AND WE'RE DOOOMED!!!!!
Let's just hope Cuomo applies the vaseline liberally when he gets to albany (get it LIBERAL-ly?)
BECAUSE WE'RE DOOMED!!!!!
After John “Sot” Sweeney and Kirsten “Babe” Gillibrand, Gibson should be a hoot.
Your analysis is good, but you missed a couple:
Conservatives are so over confident that most will forget to actually vote.
The vote stealing mechanisms of the left are so omnipotent that it is mathematically impossible for Republicans to win any race.
We are being lulled into a false sense of security, and the left is actually going to vote in record numbers.
Conservatives cannot win any election anywhere outside of the Bible belt.
Every poll that shows that this will be a blowout are to be ignored. The only polls of any value are those that can somehow be interpreted to fit in with the theory that this is not a conservative country.
Any action which shows desperation on the part of the Democrats is actually part of a wily and convoluted strategy to further Democratic electoral dominance.
I am sure that I am forgetting some too.
Chris Gibson is an outstanding fit for the district. Nice to see him performing in the polls.
thanks for the ping...was so excited to get the update
Looking at crosstabs...
looks like even 5% of Dems moved to Gibson ...LOL
Must be why they have Bubba & Move-On coming up to help scotty
Folks..pelosibluelapdog scotty has 3x the $$ and Chris still needs$ for the final push
This district is where in the state?
This one looks promising. The GOP may score big gains in upstate New York.
“This district is where in the state?”
CD20 runs from southern NY, up the Hudson river to northern NY, covers quite a large area...used to be RED
Don't neglect two districts in downstate New York: the 2nd (Incumbent D Israel vs. R Gomez) and the 4th (Incumbent D McCarthy vs. R Becker). These are very tight and competitive.
Just a tidbit...
Some may have seen/heard of Col Gibson before..and not realize it.
In Haiti, he commanded the 82nd Airborne Division’s 2nd BCT the opening month of the humanitarian relief operation
IIRC his retirement was held up a tad by that, and thus he got a lil late start announcing his campaign ..
I’m pretty familiar with everything from WNY through to Rome/Utica.
Thanks for the ping!