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KeyHouseRaces - The Latest Polls & 106 Seats in Play
KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 27 October 2010 | Interceptpoint

Posted on 10/27/2010 8:46:27 AM PDT by InterceptPoint

At KeyHouseRaces we have been logging the lastest polls for the House races in play since early September. Although we initialy posted both Dem and GOP internal polls we gave that idea up when we started to recognize that, in general, these polls were highly skewed in favor of the party doing the polling. The Nate Silver estimate for that skewing is about 6 points. That would put Dem and GOP polls 12 points apart when polling the same district. Posting these is clearly a waste of time.

So we don't post internal polls anymore, even the friendly ones.

Here are the 46 polls that we've collected in the last week including those from The Hill that were just released. 28 of these show a GOP lead, 14 show a Dem lead and 4 are tied. There are 9 GOP polls where the candidate is over the 50% mark. The Dems have 2 in that category. And worth noting is the fact that many of the Dem leads show the GOP candidate closing the race.

Particularly worth noting: GA-08, TX-17, SC-05, FL-02 and NY-20.



TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: elections; house; khr
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And just for reference here is the ranked list of our 106 Key House Races. We now have 99 Dems at risk and just 7 Republicans - and only 4 of those seem seriously threatened.

Rank Experts Democrat Seat Republican Avg. Experts District
1 LA 3 Ravi Sangisetty Open D Jeff Landry 2.2 Likely R LA 3
2 NY 29 Mathew Zeller Open D Tom Reed 2.2 Likely R NY 29
3 TN 6 Brett Carter Open D Diane Black 2.2 Likely R TN 6
4 AR 2 Joyce Elliott Open D Tim Griffin 2.0 Likely R AR 2
5 IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Incumbent D Adam Kinzinger 1.8 Likely R IL 11
6 IN 8 W. Trent Van Haaften Open D Dr. Larry Bucshon 1.8 Likely R IN 8
7 KS 3 Stephene Moore Open D Kevin Yoder 1.8 Likely R KS 3
8 OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Incumbent D Steve Stivers 1.7 Likely R OH 15
9 CO 4 Betsy Markey Incumbent D Cory Gardner 1.5 Leans R CO 4
10 PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Incumbent D Mike Kelly 1.5 Leans R PA 3
11 TN 8 Roy Herron Open D Stephen Fincher 1.5 Leans R TN 8
12 WA 8 Suzan DelBene Incumbent R Dave Reichert 1.5 Leans R WA 8
13 FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Incumbent D Sandy Adams 1.3 Leans R FL 24
14 AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent D Paul Gosar 1.2 Leans R AZ 1
15 FL 25 Joe Garcia Open R David Rivera 1.2 Leans R FL 25
16 NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent D Frank Guinta 1.2 Leans R NH 1
17 OH 1 Steve Driehaus Incumbent D Steve Chabot 1.2 Leans R OH 1
18 TX 17 Chet Edwards Incumbent D Bill Flores 1.2 Leans R TX 17
19 CA 3 Ami Bera Incumbent R Dan Lungren 1.0 Leans R CA 3
20 FL 8 Alan Grayson Incumbent D Daniel Webster 1.0 Leans R FL 8
21 MD 1 Frank Kratovil Incumbent D Andy Harris 1.0 Leans R MD 1
22 FL 2 Allen Boyd Incumbent D Steve Southerland 0.8 Leans R FL 2
23 MI 1 Gary McDowell Open D Dr. Daniel Benishek 0.8 Leans R MI 1
24 PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Incumbent D Lou Barletta 0.8 Leans R PA 11
25 VA 2 Glenn Nye Incumbent D Scott Rigell 0.8 Leans R VA 2
26 VA 5 Tom Perriello Incumbent D Robert Hurt 0.8 Leans R VA 5
27 WA 3 Denny Heck Open D Jaime Herrera 0.8 Leans R WA 3
28 AR 1 Chad Causey Open D Rick Crawford 0.7 Leans R AR 1
29 NM 2 Harry Teague Incumbent D Steve Pearce 0.7 Leans R NM 2
30 WI 7 Julie Lassa Open D Sean Duffy 0.7 Leans R WI 7
31 MS 1 Travis Childers Incumbent D Alan Nunnelee 0.5 Toss-Up MS 1
32 ND AL Earl Pomeroy Incumbent D Rick Berg 0.5 Toss-Up ND AL
33 PA 7 Bryan Lentz Open D Pat Meehan 0.5 Toss-Up PA 7
34 PA 8 Patrick Murphy Incumbent D Mike Fitzpatrick 0.5 Toss-Up PA 8
35 AZ 5 Harold Mitchell Incumbent D David Schweikert 0.3 Toss-Up AZ 5
36 CO 3 John Salazar Incumbent D Scott Tipton 0.3 Toss-Up CO 3
37 IL 14 Bill Foster Incumbent D Randy Hultgren 0.3 Toss-Up IL 14
38 NC 8 Larry Kissell Incumbent D Harold Johnson 0.3 Toss-Up NC 8
39 NH 2 Annie Kuster Open D Charlie Bass 0.3 Toss-Up NH 2
40 NY 19 John Hall Incumbent D Nan Hayworth 0.3 Toss-Up NY 19
41 OH 16 John Boccieri Incumbent D Jim Renacci 0.3 Toss-Up OH 16
42 SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Incumbent D Mick Mulvaney 0.3 Toss-Up SC 5
43 SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Incumbent D Kristi Noem 0.3 Toss-Up SD AL
44 WI 8 Steve Kagen Incumbent D Reid Ribble 0.3 Toss-Up WI 8
45 HI 1 Colleen Hanabusa Incumbent R Charles Djou 0.2 Toss-Up HI 1
46 AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Incumbent D Jesse Kelly 0.2 Toss-Up AZ 8
47 CA 11 Jerry McNerney Incumbent D David Harmer 0.2 Toss-Up CA 11
48 GA 8 Jim Marshall Incumbent D Austin Scott 0.2 Toss-Up GA 8
49 IN 9 Baron Hill Incumbent D Todd Young 0.2 Toss-Up IN 9
50 MI 7 Mark Schauer Incumbent D Tim Walberg 0.2 Toss-Up MI 7
51 NV 3 Dina Titus Incumbent D Dr. Joe Heck 0.2 Toss-Up NV 3
52 NY 23 Bill Owens Incumbent D Matt Doheny 0.2 Toss-Up NY 23
53 PA 10 Chris Carney Incumbent D Tom Marino 0.2 Toss-Up PA 10
54 WV 1 Mike Oliverio Open D David B. McKinley 0.2 Toss-Up WV 1
55 AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D Martha Roby 0.0 Toss-Up AL 2
56 FL 22 Ron Klein Incumbent D Allen West 0.0 Toss-Up FL 22
57 IL 10 Dan Seals Open R Bob Dold 0.0 Toss-Up IL 10
58 IL 17 Phil Hare Incumbent D Bobby Schilling 0.0 Toss-Up IL 17
59 OH 18 Zach Space Incumbent D Bob Gibbs 0.0 Toss-Up OH 18
60 TN 4 Lincoln Davis Incumbent D Dr. Scott Desjarlais 0.0 Toss-Up TN 4
61 TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Incumbent D Quico Canseco 0.0 Toss-Up TX 23
62 MA 10 William Keating Open D Jeff Perry -0.2 Toss-Up MA 10
63 OR 5 Kurt Schrader Incumbent D Scott Bruun -0.2 Toss-Up OR 5
64 NJ 3 John Adler Incumbent D Jon Runyan -0.3 Toss-Up NJ 3
65 NY 24 Mike Arcuri Incumbent D Richard Hanna -0.3 Toss-Up NY 24
66 GA 2 Sanford Bishop Incumbent D Mike Keown -0.5 Toss-Up GA 2
67 MO 4 Ike Skelton Incumbent D Vicky Hartzler -0.5 Toss-Up MO 4
68 NY 20 Scott Murphy Incumbent D Chris Gibson -0.5 Toss-Up NY 20
69 PA 12 Mark Critz Incumbent D Timothy Burns -0.7 Leans D PA 12
70 IA 3 Leonard Boswell Incumbent D Brad Zaun -0.7 Leans D IA 3
71 KY 6 Ben Chandler Incumbent D Andy Barr -0.7 Leans D KY 6
72 NM 1 Martin Heinrich Incumbent D Jon Barela -0.7 Leans D NM 1
73 NY 1 Tim Bishop Incumbent D Randy Altschuler -0.7 Leans D NY 1
74 IN 2 Joe Donnelly Incumbent D Jackie Walorski -0.8 Leans D IN 2
75 OH 6 Charlie Wilson Incumbent D Bill Johnson -0.8 Leans D OH 6
76 VA 9 Rick Boucher Incumbent D Morgan Griffith -0.8 Leans D VA 9
77 CT 4 Jim Himes Incumbent D Dan Debicella -1.0 Leans D CT 4
78 ID 1 Walter Minnick Incumbent D Raul Labrador -1.0 Leans D ID 1
79 VA 11 Gerald Connolly Incumbent D Keith Fimian -1.0 Leans D VA 11
80 WA 2 Rick Larsen Incumbent D John Koster -1.0 Leans D WA 2
81 AZ 7 Raúl Grijalva Incumbent D Ruth McClung -1.2 Leans D AZ 7
82 CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Incumbent D Van Tran -1.2 Leans D CA 47
83 CT 5 Christopher Murphy Incumbent D Sam Caligiuri -1.2 Leans D CT 5
84 MI 9 Gary Peters Incumbent D "Rocky" Raczowski -1.2 Leans D MI 9
85 MN 1 Tim Walz Incumbent D Randy Demmer -1.2 Leans D MN 1
86 MS 4 Gene Taylor Incumbent D Steven Palazzo -1.2 Leans D MS 4
87 NY 13 Mike McMahon Incumbent D Mike Grimm -1.2 Leans D NY 13
88 CA 20 Jim Costa Incumbent D Andy Vidak -1.3 Leans D CA 20
89 DE AL John Carney Open R Glen Urquhart -1.3 Leans D DE AL
90 LA 2 Cedric Richmond Incumbent R Joseph Cao -1.3 Leans D LA 2
91 NY 25 Dan Maffei Incumbent D Ann Marie Buerkle -1.3 Leans D NY 25
92 NC 2 Bob Etheridge Incumbent D Renee Ellmers -1.5 Leans D NC 2
93 NC 7 Mike McIntyre Incumbent D Ilario Pantano -1.5 Leans D NC 7
94 NC 11 Heath Shuler Incumbent D Jeff Miller -1.5 Leans D NC 4
95 WI 3 Ron Kind Incumbent D Dan Kapanke -1.5 Leans D WI 3
96 CO 7 Ed Perlmutter Incumbent D Ryan Frazier -1.7 Likely D CO 7
97 OH 13 Betty Sutton Incumbent D Tom Ganley -1.7 Likely D OH 13
98 PA 4 Jason Altmire Incumbent D Keith Rothfus -1.7 Likely D PA 4
99 RI 1 David Cicilline Open D John Loughlin -1.7 Likely D RI 1
100 WV 3 Nick Rahall Incumbent D "Spike" Maynard -1.8 Likely D WV 3
101 IA 1 Bruce Braley Incumbent D Ben Lange -2.0 Likely D IA 1
102 IA 2 Dave Loebsack Incumbent D Marianneette Miller Meeks -2.0 Likely D IA 2
103 PA 17 Tim Holden Incumbent D David Argall -2.0 Likely D PA 17
104 MN 8 Jim Oberstar Incumbent D Chip Cravaack -2.2 Likely D MN 8
105 NY 22 Maurice Hinchey Incumbent D George Phillips -2.2 Likely D NY 22
106 IL 8 Melissa Bean Incumbent D Joe Walsh -2.3 Likely D IL 8

1 posted on 10/27/2010 8:46:31 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: 100%FEDUP; 1010RD; 101voodoo; 1035rep; 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten; 23 Everest; 2A Patriot; ...

2 posted on 10/27/2010 8:48:57 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

Keep us posted — thanks — hopefully both MN-1 and MN-8 will evolve to a Toss-Up


3 posted on 10/27/2010 8:53:36 AM PDT by mwl8787
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To: mwl8787

And IN-2. Let’s send Joe Donnelly home.


4 posted on 10/27/2010 8:56:57 AM PDT by MustKnowHistory
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To: InterceptPoint

great references keep it up.

i have donated more this cycle in these tight races than ever before and almost all outside my state

from Alaska to Mass to Delaware and so forth

we have to keep pushing


5 posted on 10/27/2010 8:58:12 AM PDT by wardaddy (the redress over anything minority is a cancer in our country...stage 4)
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To: InterceptPoint

I’m definitely watching MSNBC’s election night coverage next Tuesday. It will be soooooooooooo funny!!!


6 posted on 10/27/2010 9:01:47 AM PDT by Old Teufel Hunden
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To: InterceptPoint
There are 2 more that need to be on that list
OR-2 Cornilles(R) v. Wu(D)
and
OR-4 Robinson(R) v. DeFazio(D)

The Repubs are back by only 4% in both these races and still a HIGH % of undecideds in both races!

Not as sure about OR-2 but REALLY think OR-4 is going to go for Robinson.

This would be AMAZING as DeFazio (progressive caucus leader trying to bring impeachment against Chief Justice Roberts) garnered 82% of the vote in his last election!!!!

7 posted on 10/27/2010 9:02:30 AM PDT by Anti-Hillary (Pretty soon everything in this country will be "free", except it's people!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Great job...I’ve got to wonder if Cook, Rosenberg etc are able to keep up? The results from CA-20 and NY-20 are very interesting. I think CA-20 be a toss-up now given the survey/usa results.


8 posted on 10/27/2010 9:03:26 AM PDT by Drango (NO-vember is payback for April 15th)
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To: InterceptPoint

Hate to get giddy here-—have been let down before-—but another analysis of only the MOST RECENT POLLS showed 99 seats with the GOP leading and another 10 in striking distance.


9 posted on 10/27/2010 9:03:57 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: InterceptPoint

Thanks for the ping!


10 posted on 10/27/2010 9:04:03 AM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: wardaddy

wardaddy’s war chest!


11 posted on 10/27/2010 9:04:40 AM PDT by Persevero (Homeschooling for Excellence since 1992)
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To: InterceptPoint
What the *$@&@#%*#%^#@!&%#%#$%(%$& is wrong with IOWA???

Is the state full of idiots or what???

Iowa is supposed to be the "midwest". You know....traditional CONSERVATIVE valuse and all...

Just sayin'

12 posted on 10/27/2010 9:05:10 AM PDT by Logic n' Reason (You can roll a turd in powered sugar; that don't make it a jelly donut)
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To: InterceptPoint

Thanks for this.

Couple of notes from here in the swamps of Delaware.

Kratovil is toast. Your grid says the district leans Republican....leaning my right eyeball. That happens to be my old district in Merryland when oncit I lived there. VERY conservative, the gerrymandered district spans from Anne Arundel County to Merryland’s eastern shore. They lost their mind last time when they elected Kratovil but take this to the bank, the natives are restless, they got pitchforks and tarbuckets, they’re ready to light the fire and it’s GOODBYE KRATOVIL!

Now I know the O’Donnell race is a senate race and not part of this grid. I’d been lamenting the lack of polls in the Coons/O’Donnell race though I have a theory on those same lack of polls. Ask me about it sometime.

But I note that here on your grid so gracefully provided, there’s NOTHING ABOUT THE DELAWARE HOUSE RACE!

I know the COD thing is sucking all of the oxygen out of the air but there is a very important House race going on here in Delaware. Del only has ONE seat in the House of Reps, formerly occupied by the infamous Mike Castle who is, nameofthefather,sonandholyghost, now history. Thus THAT house seat could turn if the pub running now, one Glen Urquhart, who I adore by the way, doesn’t win over the Dem contender, former Del loot-gov John Carney.

On your grid there’s no polls for this race either!

Well I got some thoughts on that too but with Delaware being the focus of attention what with Christine O’Donnell they so love to mock, and this really big House race when you think about it not that poor ole Glen gets any attention with COD taking up all the publicity space...you’d think they’d have SOMETHING on these races, huh?


13 posted on 10/27/2010 9:05:46 AM PDT by Fishtalk
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To: mwl8787

I would think that idiot Heath Schuler should be toast in NC. What about that woman near NASA Cape Canaveral in FL - Kostmas or something. I am sure she is toast.

NASA workers will be dumpster diving.


14 posted on 10/27/2010 9:15:39 AM PDT by Frantzie (Imam Ob*m* & Democrats support the VICTORY MOSQUE & TV supports Imam)
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To: Fishtalk
But I note that here on your grid so gracefully provided, there’s NOTHING ABOUT THE DELAWARE HOUSE RACE!

On your grid there’s no polls for this race either!

It's there: #89 out of 106. We have it ranked LEANS D.

You have to go to KeyHouseRaces Polls to see the full list of polls. And we do have DE-AL listed. In fact you caused me to go hunting for a recent poll and I found one and posted it. It's Monmouth University and it shows Urquhart (R) losing to Carney (D) by 53 to 44.

15 posted on 10/27/2010 9:16:58 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: Anti-Hillary

Is there someone running this year in 2? My mind’s gone blank...


16 posted on 10/27/2010 9:18:35 AM PDT by goodnesswins (f you don't support Obama, and the deconstruction of America: YOU are a RACIST.)
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To: InterceptPoint

Well what can I say but “oh”?

Hmmmm....leans Dem?

Gotta think about this. Not at all sure I believe that.


17 posted on 10/27/2010 9:19:37 AM PDT by Fishtalk
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To: goodnesswins

Rob Cornilles

OPPS!!!! It is Dist. 1 NOT 2

http://www.cornillesforcongress.com/

Blumenthal is Dist. 2 and he is a lock.


18 posted on 10/27/2010 9:21:57 AM PDT by Anti-Hillary (Pretty soon everything in this country will be "free", except it's people!)
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To: InterceptPoint

BTTT


19 posted on 10/27/2010 9:28:07 AM PDT by E.G.C.
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To: wardaddy
i have donated more this cycle in these tight races than ever before and almost all outside my state

This is the future of politics, IMO. Social networking, blogs and websites like Key House Races are going to take precedence over what comes from the national party structures.

Immediate access to candidate info, polling data, district demographics and other means of evaluating a race allow someone in the northern tip of Maine to know precisely what's going on in the Alaska tundra.

As of now, conservatives own the social networking scene and are using it to great advantage in this election cycle.

20 posted on 10/27/2010 9:41:01 AM PDT by randita (Visit keyhouseraces.com to find GOP House candidates who need your support to knock off a DEM.)
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To: InterceptPoint
As a former Dakotan, I'm very sorry to see the RATs up a point or two in both Dakotas. I can only theorize the reason is that they think the pork these blue dogs bring home is more valuable to them than the damage they do to the rest of the country.

Unfortunately, this probably means ObaMao's misery hasn't sufficiently affected the Dakotas yet.

21 posted on 10/27/2010 9:43:11 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Vigilanteman

It probably hasn’t. Every time I see one of those time-lapse unemployment pics of the nation, the area in north-central stays most-employed. They really might not know what’s happening elsewhere.


22 posted on 10/27/2010 9:44:51 AM PDT by BelegStrongbow (St. Joseph, patron of fathers, pray for us!)
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Make that South Dakota only . . .

It looks like Pomeroy's vote for ObamaCare has overcome the traditional state dislike of "Imperial Cass" and put him 10 points behind.

23 posted on 10/27/2010 9:45:27 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Drango; InterceptPoint

Cook has basically said that an incumbent, in a close race..even if trailing, is listed as toss-up unless he/she has been indicted..which explains why he’s hedging on a lot of races...calling them toss-ups...any way of goign back to get his predictions the last week before 1994, and see which races he called toss-up back then, and how they turned out?


24 posted on 10/27/2010 9:45:43 AM PDT by ken5050 (I don't need sex.....the government screws me every day..)
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To: Fishtalk

OK, Pat..I’m asking..give me/us your thoughts on the DEL senate race..and a prediction...much has been said lately that Coon’s newfound willingness to extend ALL the Bush tax cuts means that the race is tight...


25 posted on 10/27/2010 9:48:11 AM PDT by ken5050 (I don't need sex.....the government screws me every day..)
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To: InterceptPoint

Just wanted to point out the MS-02 JMC poll of LV’s that had Thompson-D 42% and Marcy-R at 41%. Don’t know if it’s an internal or not, but an incumbent sitting at 42% at this point is not in good shape at all.

Also there was a recent poll showing WA-09 close and it was pooh-poohed.

SurveyUSA has one today showing Muri-R trailing Smith-D by only 3 pts. - 49%-46%.

So the first poll wasn’t a fluke after all.


26 posted on 10/27/2010 9:48:23 AM PDT by randita (Visit keyhouseraces.com to find GOP House candidates who need your support to knock off a DEM.)
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To: Vigilanteman

The Dakotas have low unemployment rates compared to the rest of the country. Don’t know what’s up there that keeps people employed.

I see signs that folks in the mountain states, MT, ID, CO are on the warpath.


27 posted on 10/27/2010 9:51:04 AM PDT by randita (Visit keyhouseraces.com to find GOP House candidates who need your support to knock off a DEM.)
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To: MustKnowHistory
And IN-2. Let’s send Joe Donnelly home.

I second that. I am still angry at myself for writing Donnelly a letter prior to the final vote thanking him for his pro-life stance in opposing the Insurance Bill. As Roger Daltry says, "We won't get fooled again."

28 posted on 10/27/2010 10:00:32 AM PDT by Hoodat ( .For the weapons of our warfare are mighty in God for pulling down strongholds.d)
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To: randita
The Dakotas have low unemployment rates compared to the rest of the country. Don’t know what’s up there that keeps people employed.

1. Coal
2. Oil

29 posted on 10/27/2010 10:05:15 AM PDT by Hoodat ( .For the weapons of our warfare are mighty in God for pulling down strongholds.d)
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To: ken5050; InterceptPoint

A lot of pundits are hedging, but that’s not the problem here...Let’s look at CA-20. It’s a staggering +10R (52-42)in the survey/usa poll on Oct 25th. All the pundits should rank that as a toss-up or better. BUT many still have him as dark blue. They haven’t updated their predictions yet. For example Sabato’s update is from the 21st. Thus KHR also lags.


30 posted on 10/27/2010 10:06:32 AM PDT by Drango (NO-vember is payback for April 15th)
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To: Old Teufel Hunden

:)My plan too.


31 posted on 10/27/2010 10:08:45 AM PDT by fatima (Free Hugs Today :))
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To: InterceptPoint

BUMP


32 posted on 10/27/2010 10:12:23 AM PDT by SharpRightTurn (White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: ken5050

Well hiya Ken,

And I do have a moment.

First, an unusual thing going on here in the swamps this week. Don’t know what to make of it but I’ll throw it out there. We begin with that like the rest of the country, Delaware has many elections going on. Y’all know about the Christine O’Donnell (COD) /Coons race no doubt. And as I mentioned upthread, there’s the little known but very important House race...for good ole Mike Castle’s seat. Del only has one REP in America’s House and it is, as these things go, more powerful than Del senate seats. So Rep Urquhart, who I really like, is going against former Del loot-Gov...John Carney.

All this week the Democratic candidates have just, boom, not shown up for scheduled debates. It’s just the oddest thing. In the case of Coons, he just refuses to have any more debates with COD. John Carney was a no show at a recent debate and another local race involving Pete Schwartzkopf...yeah son of former Desert Storm General, Pete was a no show too. Pete’s a Dem., radical, right here in Sussex county and Sussex county ain’t Wilmington. The Sussex GOP, which DOES do stuff and IS Conservative, just for an oddity, is throwing everything to get this guy outta the hell Sussex county where the air is beautiful and life is good.

Don’t know what this means but everyone political round here is wondering what the heck ...? SCHEDULED debates...serious...just not showing up. Looks to me like some very orchestrated thing on the part of the Dems but I’m baffled. None of them going out in public...weird.

In the grid provided upthread, as I was corrected, it shows this seat leaning Dem. While I questioned that once informed, I tend to agree it’s probably leaning Dem.

For Delaware, let’s get those pesky statistics out of the way...is around 2/3 registered Dems against 1/3 registered pubs. There is a HUGE base of Indies here in Del, just to note. The Del population is a little less than 3/4 from up around Wilmington and the environs of Philadelphia. A little more than 25% of Delaware population comes from Kent and Sussex counties. Kent and Sussex counties consist of semi-rural, farm like abodes and are very conservative.

Given those numbers as I listed above, it’ll take some going against the grain to get a pub elected to either Senator or as Del. only Rep in the House. Keeping in mind that RINO Mike Castle managed to win for some eight years as the Rep. Keeping in mind that RINO Mike Castle voted Dem on practically every issue and damn, I could win as Rep if I called myself a pub but voted Dem.

and yet it is that very odd scenario which is creating problems for the Dems as well as the pollsters as regards Delaware. Because for the past at least two elections, it really never mattered if the welfare class in and around Wilmington bothered to vote. Mike Castle was just fine with the Del. Dems. The Kent and Sussex county voters would trudge to the polls to hold their nose and vote for Castle to keep whatever ridiculous Dem nominated from winning. Joe Biden won since 1972 because...well he’s a known name. Delaware has few folks really BORN here. Folks move into Delaware to escape the oppressive property taxes of nearby NJ and Merryland and the like. The mean well but all they know at first is Biden and here’s a guy been around, got a nice smile...seems like a nice fellow. Well yeah he’s an idiot, but he’s OUR idiot.

Point of all this is that for many, many years most the only folks voting in Delaware were Conservatives, Republicans, Independents. Democrats didn’t have to vote much and a large percentage of that group just stayed home. The Dems weren’t moved to get out the vote, pay a pack of ciggies to get them to the polls. The rest of Del would carry the water, get out and vote, and in the end the Dem guy as desired would win.

As an aside, 2008 was an exception to this dynamic. The Dems in Delaware came out and pulled the levers for the OBama/Biden ticket cause a)they really liked Obama and b)adding Biden to the ticket was just whipped cream on the pie.

However, comes the midterms, and Obama’s not on the ticket, and with midterms being boring anyway, and no big deal of interest....the Dems have a big problem in little Delaware.

Cause go with me on this, the Kent and Sussex countians....yeah man they’ll sure come out to vote, like they do every election, but they’re NOT going to vote for either Dem Carney or Coons. I got a bridge to sell cheap anybody thinks they will.

So the Dems gotta get their people out to vote and folks, it ain’t gonna be easy. No Obama or Biden on the ticket, a really lackluster Coons midget nothing burger, an entrenched politico like John Carney....there’s not much worth losing some good sleep over to the big mass of Wilmington Dems that could overtake the statistically challenged Repubs in this race.

Finally, and thanks for indulging me but you did ask, I know that most of the upcoming elections depend on turnout. But Delaware is more dependent on turnout than any of the states I daresay. Delaware has a HUGE group of voters who never much had to bother with that voting thing.

I conclude that the upcoming Del Senate/House races will be close. I do know that Obama/Biden came to Delaware, not so much to move the base, but to meet with the mighty unions, which is a big force in this little state, to get out there and get those people to the polls.

It’s an intriguing scenario, caused by Delaware’s formerly politically uninformed population and the lack of need to get the Dems to the polls. The entire American population is infinitely more informed than before and yeah we’ve had plenty of Tea Parties in Delaware.

Everything’s changed this year and I suspect the polls are erratic and entirely undependable. Which is why no one really wants to go out on any limbs.

I do think a that “leaning Dem” designation is probably spot on.

I do NOT think that Delaware is a lock for the Democrats.


33 posted on 10/27/2010 10:22:44 AM PDT by Fishtalk
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To: InterceptPoint

Thanks for the ping. Yay for Texas-17. Chet is going down!


34 posted on 10/27/2010 10:27:16 AM PDT by McLynnan
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To: Fishtalk
Fish, I have been all over your state. Although a thorough tour doesn't take long, you have a great little place.

Weird, though. Rural DE seems stuck in some kind of time warp, baby! Kindly inform whatever voters you run across this weekend that neither Truman nor Eisenhower is running this time and that LBJ died.

BTW, how could anyone who honorably completed 3rd Grade consider letting Joe Biden leave his room, never mind run for office? What's with your people? BTW, how does the pheasant hunting look? Coons? Is that genetic damage? Inbreeding? What? That boy ain't right.

35 posted on 10/27/2010 10:42:58 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk (Revive The Poll Tax and Literacy Requirement for voter registration.)
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To: Old Teufel Hunden

Ohhh Yeahhhhhh, Hey thanks - I really like that idea!


36 posted on 10/27/2010 10:48:02 AM PDT by clyde260 (Public Enemy #1: Network News!)
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To: Fishtalk

Nice essay..we shall see..


37 posted on 10/27/2010 10:50:47 AM PDT by ken5050 (I don't need sex.....the government screws me every day..)
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To: Drango

Thus KHR also lags.
*************************
That is indeed our fate - We live and die with our “Experts”. Hopefully they will catch up with the polls at the end. We’ll know in a few days. KHR will have an update post this Saturday and we’ll do a Monday final update if there are any changes coming from the “Experts” over the weekend.


38 posted on 10/27/2010 10:51:45 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: Fishtalk

It sounds like entrenched politicians tend to stay entrenched in DE, at least until this latest primary where a fixture like Castle got booted. I realize it wasn’t an open primary but it sounds like DE is not immune to what’s happening in the other 56, I mean 49.

These dims all of a sudden deciding not to debate is strange. I’m guessing their internals are showing a precarious lead and the earlier debates haven’t been at all helpful. Coons may be one of the most uninspiring candidates I’ve ever seen run for anything at anytime, anywhere. I think the more the electorate sees and hears Coons the less likely they’ll be to go out and pull the lever for him. I just can’t believe turnout is going to be good for the D’s.

Finally, does DuPont carry enough weight up there for his endorsement to mean anything for the less motivated indies and pubbies?


39 posted on 10/27/2010 10:55:02 AM PDT by bereanway
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To: Fishtalk

I disagree. While I think the actual races are much tighter in DE than the polls suggest, the unions will nevertheless get out the vote for John Carney in New Castle County. Coons, whom the union members justifiably dislike, gets to go along for the ride.

O’Donnell and Urquhuart are both likely to lose. Carney would not be running (mostly) positive ads if he were in any jeopardy. Hopefully the Democratic tide will not take Bonini down with them, because Colin deserves to win.

Each party leaves something on the table in every election cycle. Like NY State, the Delaware GOP has destroyed itself this cycle.


40 posted on 10/27/2010 11:11:06 AM PDT by mwl8787
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To: InterceptPoint

I’ll be interested to see what happens in the North Carolina 4th. The execrable mega-liberal David Price is in the brawl of his life with B.J. Lawson...since it’s not on these lists, I assume that outside polls are showing it as a safe retention for Price even though Lawson’s polling shows him right there.

Price will not be able to ride the racial Obama wave here in heavily-black Durham this year (68-28 Obama in 2008), and I expect his smelly hippie base over in Chapel Hell and Carrboro aren’t exactly motivated right now. I don’t think he’ll lose, there’s just too much of a combination of college liberals and black racist Democrats to overcome. But if there is any year that the Rats could finally lose their chokehold on this district, this is it.

}:-)4


41 posted on 10/27/2010 11:14:42 AM PDT by Moose4 ("By all that you hold dear on this good Earth, I bid you stand, Men of the West!")
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To: McLynnan
I compared this list to the list of races to which the Democrats' National Congressional Campaign Committee is committing last minute funds (as published in National Review). There are 19 races on this list for seats currently held by Democrats, and which are shown as leaning Republican or at worst a tossup, to which their national committee is not committing funds. They are: Arkansas 2, California 47 (Tran-Sanchez), Colorado 4, Florida 8, Florida 24, Illinois 11, Indiana 8, Kansas 3, Louisiana 3, New Hampshire 1, New Mexico 2, New York 29, Ohio 1, Ohio 15, Pennsylvania 3, Tennessee 8, Washington 8, and Wisconsin 8.

Either the Dems have given up on these races or the Dem candidates there have adequate funds. I suspect that the former is true. So, the way I see it, with these 19 races, we are half the way there.

42 posted on 10/27/2010 11:15:50 AM PDT by p. henry
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To: InterceptPoint

Joe Biden expects Democrat gains in House and Senate.
Joe Biden expects parapalegic to stand.
Joe Biden....as a VP makes AlGore look like Albert Einstein.


43 posted on 10/27/2010 11:33:45 AM PDT by LeonardFMason
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To: bereanway
Thanks for your response. I trust you know I did my best.

First, as to the sudden disappearance of the Dems...maybe you got something. Like you said, Coons is inspiring nobody, a big zero, totally non-charismatic blotto burger. Whereas COD has a bright smile and people are naturally drawn to her. The comparison between the two is just so obvious.

As for John Carney, serious...I have YET to see the man, either in any public event, or even in a TV ad. They have some, but there's no Carney in them. Another nothing burger whereas Glen Urquhart is just the nicest fellow, very personable.

This is not to say that COD or Urquhart are hiding out in any form or fashion.

It's just odd.

And so before my nap, a look at my political album, you should smile

Below, in 2005, ME, granddaughter....and Christine O'Donnell! Yes I can say I knew her when...

Below, COD with grandaughter from this past August.

Below, just for grins, granddaughter and Glen Urquhart! Yes that's former VA Senator Allen holding granddaughter

Finally, for giggles and grins...ME....with Mike Castle! Well hell no I'm not proud of it but once upon a time I really tried. The man kept slapping me in the face so now he's outta there.!


44 posted on 10/27/2010 11:34:13 AM PDT by Fishtalk
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To: bereanway

Sorry....as for the DuPont endorsement, it sure won’t hurt.

I think the DuPont endorsement helps soothe angry Del GOP voters as much as anything.

The fine, fine Mike Castle STILL has not endorsed COD, this after all the years we supported him as he constantly slapped us in the face.


45 posted on 10/27/2010 11:36:38 AM PDT by Fishtalk
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To: mwl8787

Actually I’m not sure we do disagree.

I said I thought the races lean Democrat so hey,maybe we’re talking by degree. I do NOT think it will be a rout but if you held a gun to my head, I’d say most likely the Dems will pick up both Del seats....more’s the pity. Still, seriously, Castle is gone and that means so much.

As for Bonini....that Flowers fellow is in heap big trouble I hear, something about beating women.

And you’re right, the Del GOP finally collapsed.


46 posted on 10/27/2010 11:40:15 AM PDT by Fishtalk
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To: MustKnowHistory
Every congressional race in Indiana and Kentucky is important because they report early, thus affecting some votes on the west coast. We are targeting the open seat (Ellsworth), Baron Hill and Joe Donnelly... did I miss anything in Indiana?
47 posted on 10/27/2010 11:48:11 AM PDT by mwl8787
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To: InterceptPoint; Clintonfatigued; Impy

Good news from Illinois. Bod Dold in the 10th District has an excellent new ad running called “Seals for Dold” Check it out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuGIcLWOxUA&feature=player_embedded

Finally some creativity from the Dold camp instead of the Mark Kirk-lite message. “Seals for Dold”, love the play on words and it hammers home the point about what kind of person Dan Seals really is.

Glad to see the Dold campaign is waking up and finding new ways to reach out to 10th District voters in the final week. Hope he can pull this off and step out of Kirk’s shadow to be his own man.


48 posted on 10/27/2010 11:54:25 AM PDT by BillyBoy (Impeach Obama? Yes We Can!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Wow..106 races in play!

I’d thought it would be closer to 80 races, the one disadvantage we have is the Dhimmis have put their cash to work and that has kept some races in the “D” column that otherwise would not be there.


49 posted on 10/27/2010 12:09:06 PM PDT by padre35 (You shall not ignore the laws of God, the Market, the Jungle, and Reciprocity Rm10.10)
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To: InterceptPoint

Bergmann Challenges Cohen in Ninth District (TN)(Arrogant Dem Refuses To Debate Black Conservative)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2615358/posts


50 posted on 10/27/2010 12:40:19 PM PDT by GailA (obamacare paid for by cuts & taxes on most vulnerable Veterans, retired Military, disabled & Seniors)
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