Skip to comments.KeyHouseRaces - The Latest Polls & 106 Seats in Play
Posted on 10/27/2010 8:46:27 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
At KeyHouseRaces we have been logging the lastest polls for the House races in play since early September. Although we initialy posted both Dem and GOP internal polls we gave that idea up when we started to recognize that, in general, these polls were highly skewed in favor of the party doing the polling. The Nate Silver estimate for that skewing is about 6 points. That would put Dem and GOP polls 12 points apart when polling the same district. Posting these is clearly a waste of time.
So we don't post internal polls anymore, even the friendly ones.
Here are the 46 polls that we've collected in the last week including those from The Hill that were just released. 28 of these show a GOP lead, 14 show a Dem lead and 4 are tied. There are 9 GOP polls where the candidate is over the 50% mark. The Dems have 2 in that category. And worth noting is the fact that many of the Dem leads show the GOP candidate closing the race.
Particularly worth noting: GA-08, TX-17, SC-05, FL-02 and NY-20.
|1||LA||3||Ravi Sangisetty||Open D||Jeff Landry||2.2||Likely R||LA||3|
|2||NY||29||Mathew Zeller||Open D||Tom Reed||2.2||Likely R||NY||29|
|3||TN||6||Brett Carter||Open D||Diane Black||2.2||Likely R||TN||6|
|4||AR||2||Joyce Elliott||Open D||Tim Griffin||2.0||Likely R||AR||2|
|5||IL||11||Debbie Halvorson||Incumbent D||Adam Kinzinger||1.8||Likely R||IL||11|
|6||IN||8||W. Trent Van Haaften||Open D||Dr. Larry Bucshon||1.8||Likely R||IN||8|
|7||KS||3||Stephene Moore||Open D||Kevin Yoder||1.8||Likely R||KS||3|
|8||OH||15||Mary Jo Kilroy||Incumbent D||Steve Stivers||1.7||Likely R||OH||15|
|9||CO||4||Betsy Markey||Incumbent D||Cory Gardner||1.5||Leans R||CO||4|
|10||PA||3||Kathleen Dahlkemper||Incumbent D||Mike Kelly||1.5||Leans R||PA||3|
|11||TN||8||Roy Herron||Open D||Stephen Fincher||1.5||Leans R||TN||8|
|12||WA||8||Suzan DelBene||Incumbent R||Dave Reichert||1.5||Leans R||WA||8|
|13||FL||24||Suzanne Kosmas||Incumbent D||Sandy Adams||1.3||Leans R||FL||24|
|14||AZ||1||Ann Kirkpatrick||Incumbent D||Paul Gosar||1.2||Leans R||AZ||1|
|15||FL||25||Joe Garcia||Open R||David Rivera||1.2||Leans R||FL||25|
|16||NH||1||Carol Shea-Porter||Incumbent D||Frank Guinta||1.2||Leans R||NH||1|
|17||OH||1||Steve Driehaus||Incumbent D||Steve Chabot||1.2||Leans R||OH||1|
|18||TX||17||Chet Edwards||Incumbent D||Bill Flores||1.2||Leans R||TX||17|
|19||CA||3||Ami Bera||Incumbent R||Dan Lungren||1.0||Leans R||CA||3|
|20||FL||8||Alan Grayson||Incumbent D||Daniel Webster||1.0||Leans R||FL||8|
|21||MD||1||Frank Kratovil||Incumbent D||Andy Harris||1.0||Leans R||MD||1|
|22||FL||2||Allen Boyd||Incumbent D||Steve Southerland||0.8||Leans R||FL||2|
|23||MI||1||Gary McDowell||Open D||Dr. Daniel Benishek||0.8||Leans R||MI||1|
|24||PA||11||Paul Kanjorski||Incumbent D||Lou Barletta||0.8||Leans R||PA||11|
|25||VA||2||Glenn Nye||Incumbent D||Scott Rigell||0.8||Leans R||VA||2|
|26||VA||5||Tom Perriello||Incumbent D||Robert Hurt||0.8||Leans R||VA||5|
|27||WA||3||Denny Heck||Open D||Jaime Herrera||0.8||Leans R||WA||3|
|28||AR||1||Chad Causey||Open D||Rick Crawford||0.7||Leans R||AR||1|
|29||NM||2||Harry Teague||Incumbent D||Steve Pearce||0.7||Leans R||NM||2|
|30||WI||7||Julie Lassa||Open D||Sean Duffy||0.7||Leans R||WI||7|
|31||MS||1||Travis Childers||Incumbent D||Alan Nunnelee||0.5||Toss-Up||MS||1|
|32||ND||AL||Earl Pomeroy||Incumbent D||Rick Berg||0.5||Toss-Up||ND||AL|
|33||PA||7||Bryan Lentz||Open D||Pat Meehan||0.5||Toss-Up||PA||7|
|34||PA||8||Patrick Murphy||Incumbent D||Mike Fitzpatrick||0.5||Toss-Up||PA||8|
|35||AZ||5||Harold Mitchell||Incumbent D||David Schweikert||0.3||Toss-Up||AZ||5|
|36||CO||3||John Salazar||Incumbent D||Scott Tipton||0.3||Toss-Up||CO||3|
|37||IL||14||Bill Foster||Incumbent D||Randy Hultgren||0.3||Toss-Up||IL||14|
|38||NC||8||Larry Kissell||Incumbent D||Harold Johnson||0.3||Toss-Up||NC||8|
|39||NH||2||Annie Kuster||Open D||Charlie Bass||0.3||Toss-Up||NH||2|
|40||NY||19||John Hall||Incumbent D||Nan Hayworth||0.3||Toss-Up||NY||19|
|41||OH||16||John Boccieri||Incumbent D||Jim Renacci||0.3||Toss-Up||OH||16|
|42||SC||5||John Spratt Jr.||Incumbent D||Mick Mulvaney||0.3||Toss-Up||SC||5|
|43||SD||AL||Stephanie Sandlin||Incumbent D||Kristi Noem||0.3||Toss-Up||SD||AL|
|44||WI||8||Steve Kagen||Incumbent D||Reid Ribble||0.3||Toss-Up||WI||8|
|45||HI||1||Colleen Hanabusa||Incumbent R||Charles Djou||0.2||Toss-Up||HI||1|
|46||AZ||8||Gabrielle Giffords||Incumbent D||Jesse Kelly||0.2||Toss-Up||AZ||8|
|47||CA||11||Jerry McNerney||Incumbent D||David Harmer||0.2||Toss-Up||CA||11|
|48||GA||8||Jim Marshall||Incumbent D||Austin Scott||0.2||Toss-Up||GA||8|
|49||IN||9||Baron Hill||Incumbent D||Todd Young||0.2||Toss-Up||IN||9|
|50||MI||7||Mark Schauer||Incumbent D||Tim Walberg||0.2||Toss-Up||MI||7|
|51||NV||3||Dina Titus||Incumbent D||Dr. Joe Heck||0.2||Toss-Up||NV||3|
|52||NY||23||Bill Owens||Incumbent D||Matt Doheny||0.2||Toss-Up||NY||23|
|53||PA||10||Chris Carney||Incumbent D||Tom Marino||0.2||Toss-Up||PA||10|
|54||WV||1||Mike Oliverio||Open D||David B. McKinley||0.2||Toss-Up||WV||1|
|55||AL||2||Bobby Bright||Incumbent D||Martha Roby||0.0||Toss-Up||AL||2|
|56||FL||22||Ron Klein||Incumbent D||Allen West||0.0||Toss-Up||FL||22|
|57||IL||10||Dan Seals||Open R||Bob Dold||0.0||Toss-Up||IL||10|
|58||IL||17||Phil Hare||Incumbent D||Bobby Schilling||0.0||Toss-Up||IL||17|
|59||OH||18||Zach Space||Incumbent D||Bob Gibbs||0.0||Toss-Up||OH||18|
|60||TN||4||Lincoln Davis||Incumbent D||Dr. Scott Desjarlais||0.0||Toss-Up||TN||4|
|61||TX||23||Ciro Rodriguez||Incumbent D||Quico Canseco||0.0||Toss-Up||TX||23|
|62||MA||10||William Keating||Open D||Jeff Perry||-0.2||Toss-Up||MA||10|
|63||OR||5||Kurt Schrader||Incumbent D||Scott Bruun||-0.2||Toss-Up||OR||5|
|64||NJ||3||John Adler||Incumbent D||Jon Runyan||-0.3||Toss-Up||NJ||3|
|65||NY||24||Mike Arcuri||Incumbent D||Richard Hanna||-0.3||Toss-Up||NY||24|
|66||GA||2||Sanford Bishop||Incumbent D||Mike Keown||-0.5||Toss-Up||GA||2|
|67||MO||4||Ike Skelton||Incumbent D||Vicky Hartzler||-0.5||Toss-Up||MO||4|
|68||NY||20||Scott Murphy||Incumbent D||Chris Gibson||-0.5||Toss-Up||NY||20|
|69||PA||12||Mark Critz||Incumbent D||Timothy Burns||-0.7||Leans D||PA||12|
|70||IA||3||Leonard Boswell||Incumbent D||Brad Zaun||-0.7||Leans D||IA||3|
|71||KY||6||Ben Chandler||Incumbent D||Andy Barr||-0.7||Leans D||KY||6|
|72||NM||1||Martin Heinrich||Incumbent D||Jon Barela||-0.7||Leans D||NM||1|
|73||NY||1||Tim Bishop||Incumbent D||Randy Altschuler||-0.7||Leans D||NY||1|
|74||IN||2||Joe Donnelly||Incumbent D||Jackie Walorski||-0.8||Leans D||IN||2|
|75||OH||6||Charlie Wilson||Incumbent D||Bill Johnson||-0.8||Leans D||OH||6|
|76||VA||9||Rick Boucher||Incumbent D||Morgan Griffith||-0.8||Leans D||VA||9|
|77||CT||4||Jim Himes||Incumbent D||Dan Debicella||-1.0||Leans D||CT||4|
|78||ID||1||Walter Minnick||Incumbent D||Raul Labrador||-1.0||Leans D||ID||1|
|79||VA||11||Gerald Connolly||Incumbent D||Keith Fimian||-1.0||Leans D||VA||11|
|80||WA||2||Rick Larsen||Incumbent D||John Koster||-1.0||Leans D||WA||2|
|81||AZ||7||Raúl Grijalva||Incumbent D||Ruth McClung||-1.2||Leans D||AZ||7|
|82||CA||47||Loretta Sanchez||Incumbent D||Van Tran||-1.2||Leans D||CA||47|
|83||CT||5||Christopher Murphy||Incumbent D||Sam Caligiuri||-1.2||Leans D||CT||5|
|84||MI||9||Gary Peters||Incumbent D||"Rocky" Raczowski||-1.2||Leans D||MI||9|
|85||MN||1||Tim Walz||Incumbent D||Randy Demmer||-1.2||Leans D||MN||1|
|86||MS||4||Gene Taylor||Incumbent D||Steven Palazzo||-1.2||Leans D||MS||4|
|87||NY||13||Mike McMahon||Incumbent D||Mike Grimm||-1.2||Leans D||NY||13|
|88||CA||20||Jim Costa||Incumbent D||Andy Vidak||-1.3||Leans D||CA||20|
|89||DE||AL||John Carney||Open R||Glen Urquhart||-1.3||Leans D||DE||AL|
|90||LA||2||Cedric Richmond||Incumbent R||Joseph Cao||-1.3||Leans D||LA||2|
|91||NY||25||Dan Maffei||Incumbent D||Ann Marie Buerkle||-1.3||Leans D||NY||25|
|92||NC||2||Bob Etheridge||Incumbent D||Renee Ellmers||-1.5||Leans D||NC||2|
|93||NC||7||Mike McIntyre||Incumbent D||Ilario Pantano||-1.5||Leans D||NC||7|
|94||NC||11||Heath Shuler||Incumbent D||Jeff Miller||-1.5||Leans D||NC||4|
|95||WI||3||Ron Kind||Incumbent D||Dan Kapanke||-1.5||Leans D||WI||3|
|96||CO||7||Ed Perlmutter||Incumbent D||Ryan Frazier||-1.7||Likely D||CO||7|
|97||OH||13||Betty Sutton||Incumbent D||Tom Ganley||-1.7||Likely D||OH||13|
|98||PA||4||Jason Altmire||Incumbent D||Keith Rothfus||-1.7||Likely D||PA||4|
|99||RI||1||David Cicilline||Open D||John Loughlin||-1.7||Likely D||RI||1|
|100||WV||3||Nick Rahall||Incumbent D||"Spike" Maynard||-1.8||Likely D||WV||3|
|101||IA||1||Bruce Braley||Incumbent D||Ben Lange||-2.0||Likely D||IA||1|
|102||IA||2||Dave Loebsack||Incumbent D||Marianneette Miller Meeks||-2.0||Likely D||IA||2|
|103||PA||17||Tim Holden||Incumbent D||David Argall||-2.0||Likely D||PA||17|
|104||MN||8||Jim Oberstar||Incumbent D||Chip Cravaack||-2.2||Likely D||MN||8|
|105||NY||22||Maurice Hinchey||Incumbent D||George Phillips||-2.2||Likely D||NY||22|
|106||IL||8||Melissa Bean||Incumbent D||Joe Walsh||-2.3||Likely D||IL||8|
Keep us posted — thanks — hopefully both MN-1 and MN-8 will evolve to a Toss-Up
And IN-2. Let’s send Joe Donnelly home.
great references keep it up.
i have donated more this cycle in these tight races than ever before and almost all outside my state
from Alaska to Mass to Delaware and so forth
we have to keep pushing
I’m definitely watching MSNBC’s election night coverage next Tuesday. It will be soooooooooooo funny!!!
The Repubs are back by only 4% in both these races and still a HIGH % of undecideds in both races!
Not as sure about OR-2 but REALLY think OR-4 is going to go for Robinson.
This would be AMAZING as DeFazio (progressive caucus leader trying to bring impeachment against Chief Justice Roberts) garnered 82% of the vote in his last election!!!!
Great job...I’ve got to wonder if Cook, Rosenberg etc are able to keep up? The results from CA-20 and NY-20 are very interesting. I think CA-20 be a toss-up now given the survey/usa results.
Hate to get giddy here-—have been let down before-—but another analysis of only the MOST RECENT POLLS showed 99 seats with the GOP leading and another 10 in striking distance.
Thanks for the ping!
wardaddy’s war chest!
Is the state full of idiots or what???
Iowa is supposed to be the "midwest". You know....traditional CONSERVATIVE valuse and all...
Thanks for this.
Couple of notes from here in the swamps of Delaware.
Kratovil is toast. Your grid says the district leans Republican....leaning my right eyeball. That happens to be my old district in Merryland when oncit I lived there. VERY conservative, the gerrymandered district spans from Anne Arundel County to Merryland’s eastern shore. They lost their mind last time when they elected Kratovil but take this to the bank, the natives are restless, they got pitchforks and tarbuckets, they’re ready to light the fire and it’s GOODBYE KRATOVIL!
Now I know the O’Donnell race is a senate race and not part of this grid. I’d been lamenting the lack of polls in the Coons/O’Donnell race though I have a theory on those same lack of polls. Ask me about it sometime.
But I note that here on your grid so gracefully provided, there’s NOTHING ABOUT THE DELAWARE HOUSE RACE!
I know the COD thing is sucking all of the oxygen out of the air but there is a very important House race going on here in Delaware. Del only has ONE seat in the House of Reps, formerly occupied by the infamous Mike Castle who is, nameofthefather,sonandholyghost, now history. Thus THAT house seat could turn if the pub running now, one Glen Urquhart, who I adore by the way, doesn’t win over the Dem contender, former Del loot-gov John Carney.
On your grid there’s no polls for this race either!
Well I got some thoughts on that too but with Delaware being the focus of attention what with Christine O’Donnell they so love to mock, and this really big House race when you think about it not that poor ole Glen gets any attention with COD taking up all the publicity space...you’d think they’d have SOMETHING on these races, huh?
I would think that idiot Heath Schuler should be toast in NC. What about that woman near NASA Cape Canaveral in FL - Kostmas or something. I am sure she is toast.
NASA workers will be dumpster diving.
On your grid theres no polls for this race either!
It's there: #89 out of 106. We have it ranked LEANS D.
You have to go to KeyHouseRaces Polls to see the full list of polls. And we do have DE-AL listed. In fact you caused me to go hunting for a recent poll and I found one and posted it. It's Monmouth University and it shows Urquhart (R) losing to Carney (D) by 53 to 44.
Is there someone running this year in 2? My mind’s gone blank...
Well what can I say but “oh”?
Gotta think about this. Not at all sure I believe that.
OPPS!!!! It is Dist. 1 NOT 2
Blumenthal is Dist. 2 and he is a lock.
This is the future of politics, IMO. Social networking, blogs and websites like Key House Races are going to take precedence over what comes from the national party structures.
Immediate access to candidate info, polling data, district demographics and other means of evaluating a race allow someone in the northern tip of Maine to know precisely what's going on in the Alaska tundra.
As of now, conservatives own the social networking scene and are using it to great advantage in this election cycle.
Unfortunately, this probably means ObaMao's misery hasn't sufficiently affected the Dakotas yet.
It probably hasn’t. Every time I see one of those time-lapse unemployment pics of the nation, the area in north-central stays most-employed. They really might not know what’s happening elsewhere.
It looks like Pomeroy's vote for ObamaCare has overcome the traditional state dislike of "Imperial Cass" and put him 10 points behind.
Cook has basically said that an incumbent, in a close race..even if trailing, is listed as toss-up unless he/she has been indicted..which explains why he’s hedging on a lot of races...calling them toss-ups...any way of goign back to get his predictions the last week before 1994, and see which races he called toss-up back then, and how they turned out?
OK, Pat..I’m asking..give me/us your thoughts on the DEL senate race..and a prediction...much has been said lately that Coon’s newfound willingness to extend ALL the Bush tax cuts means that the race is tight...
Just wanted to point out the MS-02 JMC poll of LV’s that had Thompson-D 42% and Marcy-R at 41%. Don’t know if it’s an internal or not, but an incumbent sitting at 42% at this point is not in good shape at all.
Also there was a recent poll showing WA-09 close and it was pooh-poohed.
SurveyUSA has one today showing Muri-R trailing Smith-D by only 3 pts. - 49%-46%.
So the first poll wasn’t a fluke after all.
The Dakotas have low unemployment rates compared to the rest of the country. Don’t know what’s up there that keeps people employed.
I see signs that folks in the mountain states, MT, ID, CO are on the warpath.
I second that. I am still angry at myself for writing Donnelly a letter prior to the final vote thanking him for his pro-life stance in opposing the Insurance Bill. As Roger Daltry says, "We won't get fooled again."
A lot of pundits are hedging, but that’s not the problem here...Let’s look at CA-20. It’s a staggering +10R (52-42)in the survey/usa poll on Oct 25th. All the pundits should rank that as a toss-up or better. BUT many still have him as dark blue. They haven’t updated their predictions yet. For example Sabato’s update is from the 21st. Thus KHR also lags.
:)My plan too.
Well hiya Ken,
And I do have a moment.
First, an unusual thing going on here in the swamps this week. Don’t know what to make of it but I’ll throw it out there. We begin with that like the rest of the country, Delaware has many elections going on. Y’all know about the Christine O’Donnell (COD) /Coons race no doubt. And as I mentioned upthread, there’s the little known but very important House race...for good ole Mike Castle’s seat. Del only has one REP in America’s House and it is, as these things go, more powerful than Del senate seats. So Rep Urquhart, who I really like, is going against former Del loot-Gov...John Carney.
All this week the Democratic candidates have just, boom, not shown up for scheduled debates. It’s just the oddest thing. In the case of Coons, he just refuses to have any more debates with COD. John Carney was a no show at a recent debate and another local race involving Pete Schwartzkopf...yeah son of former Desert Storm General, Pete was a no show too. Pete’s a Dem., radical, right here in Sussex county and Sussex county ain’t Wilmington. The Sussex GOP, which DOES do stuff and IS Conservative, just for an oddity, is throwing everything to get this guy outta the hell Sussex county where the air is beautiful and life is good.
Don’t know what this means but everyone political round here is wondering what the heck ...? SCHEDULED debates...serious...just not showing up. Looks to me like some very orchestrated thing on the part of the Dems but I’m baffled. None of them going out in public...weird.
In the grid provided upthread, as I was corrected, it shows this seat leaning Dem. While I questioned that once informed, I tend to agree it’s probably leaning Dem.
For Delaware, let’s get those pesky statistics out of the way...is around 2/3 registered Dems against 1/3 registered pubs. There is a HUGE base of Indies here in Del, just to note. The Del population is a little less than 3/4 from up around Wilmington and the environs of Philadelphia. A little more than 25% of Delaware population comes from Kent and Sussex counties. Kent and Sussex counties consist of semi-rural, farm like abodes and are very conservative.
Given those numbers as I listed above, it’ll take some going against the grain to get a pub elected to either Senator or as Del. only Rep in the House. Keeping in mind that RINO Mike Castle managed to win for some eight years as the Rep. Keeping in mind that RINO Mike Castle voted Dem on practically every issue and damn, I could win as Rep if I called myself a pub but voted Dem.
and yet it is that very odd scenario which is creating problems for the Dems as well as the pollsters as regards Delaware. Because for the past at least two elections, it really never mattered if the welfare class in and around Wilmington bothered to vote. Mike Castle was just fine with the Del. Dems. The Kent and Sussex county voters would trudge to the polls to hold their nose and vote for Castle to keep whatever ridiculous Dem nominated from winning. Joe Biden won since 1972 because...well he’s a known name. Delaware has few folks really BORN here. Folks move into Delaware to escape the oppressive property taxes of nearby NJ and Merryland and the like. The mean well but all they know at first is Biden and here’s a guy been around, got a nice smile...seems like a nice fellow. Well yeah he’s an idiot, but he’s OUR idiot.
Point of all this is that for many, many years most the only folks voting in Delaware were Conservatives, Republicans, Independents. Democrats didn’t have to vote much and a large percentage of that group just stayed home. The Dems weren’t moved to get out the vote, pay a pack of ciggies to get them to the polls. The rest of Del would carry the water, get out and vote, and in the end the Dem guy as desired would win.
As an aside, 2008 was an exception to this dynamic. The Dems in Delaware came out and pulled the levers for the OBama/Biden ticket cause a)they really liked Obama and b)adding Biden to the ticket was just whipped cream on the pie.
However, comes the midterms, and Obama’s not on the ticket, and with midterms being boring anyway, and no big deal of interest....the Dems have a big problem in little Delaware.
Cause go with me on this, the Kent and Sussex countians....yeah man they’ll sure come out to vote, like they do every election, but they’re NOT going to vote for either Dem Carney or Coons. I got a bridge to sell cheap anybody thinks they will.
So the Dems gotta get their people out to vote and folks, it ain’t gonna be easy. No Obama or Biden on the ticket, a really lackluster Coons midget nothing burger, an entrenched politico like John Carney....there’s not much worth losing some good sleep over to the big mass of Wilmington Dems that could overtake the statistically challenged Repubs in this race.
Finally, and thanks for indulging me but you did ask, I know that most of the upcoming elections depend on turnout. But Delaware is more dependent on turnout than any of the states I daresay. Delaware has a HUGE group of voters who never much had to bother with that voting thing.
I conclude that the upcoming Del Senate/House races will be close. I do know that Obama/Biden came to Delaware, not so much to move the base, but to meet with the mighty unions, which is a big force in this little state, to get out there and get those people to the polls.
It’s an intriguing scenario, caused by Delaware’s formerly politically uninformed population and the lack of need to get the Dems to the polls. The entire American population is infinitely more informed than before and yeah we’ve had plenty of Tea Parties in Delaware.
Everything’s changed this year and I suspect the polls are erratic and entirely undependable. Which is why no one really wants to go out on any limbs.
I do think a that “leaning Dem” designation is probably spot on.
I do NOT think that Delaware is a lock for the Democrats.
Thanks for the ping. Yay for Texas-17. Chet is going down!
Weird, though. Rural DE seems stuck in some kind of time warp, baby! Kindly inform whatever voters you run across this weekend that neither Truman nor Eisenhower is running this time and that LBJ died.
BTW, how could anyone who honorably completed 3rd Grade consider letting Joe Biden leave his room, never mind run for office? What's with your people? BTW, how does the pheasant hunting look? Coons? Is that genetic damage? Inbreeding? What? That boy ain't right.
Ohhh Yeahhhhhh, Hey thanks - I really like that idea!
Nice essay..we shall see..
Thus KHR also lags.
That is indeed our fate - We live and die with our “Experts”. Hopefully they will catch up with the polls at the end. We’ll know in a few days. KHR will have an update post this Saturday and we’ll do a Monday final update if there are any changes coming from the “Experts” over the weekend.
It sounds like entrenched politicians tend to stay entrenched in DE, at least until this latest primary where a fixture like Castle got booted. I realize it wasn’t an open primary but it sounds like DE is not immune to what’s happening in the other 56, I mean 49.
These dims all of a sudden deciding not to debate is strange. I’m guessing their internals are showing a precarious lead and the earlier debates haven’t been at all helpful. Coons may be one of the most uninspiring candidates I’ve ever seen run for anything at anytime, anywhere. I think the more the electorate sees and hears Coons the less likely they’ll be to go out and pull the lever for him. I just can’t believe turnout is going to be good for the D’s.
Finally, does DuPont carry enough weight up there for his endorsement to mean anything for the less motivated indies and pubbies?
I disagree. While I think the actual races are much tighter in DE than the polls suggest, the unions will nevertheless get out the vote for John Carney in New Castle County. Coons, whom the union members justifiably dislike, gets to go along for the ride.
O’Donnell and Urquhuart are both likely to lose. Carney would not be running (mostly) positive ads if he were in any jeopardy. Hopefully the Democratic tide will not take Bonini down with them, because Colin deserves to win.
Each party leaves something on the table in every election cycle. Like NY State, the Delaware GOP has destroyed itself this cycle.
I’ll be interested to see what happens in the North Carolina 4th. The execrable mega-liberal David Price is in the brawl of his life with B.J. Lawson...since it’s not on these lists, I assume that outside polls are showing it as a safe retention for Price even though Lawson’s polling shows him right there.
Price will not be able to ride the racial Obama wave here in heavily-black Durham this year (68-28 Obama in 2008), and I expect his smelly hippie base over in Chapel Hell and Carrboro aren’t exactly motivated right now. I don’t think he’ll lose, there’s just too much of a combination of college liberals and black racist Democrats to overcome. But if there is any year that the Rats could finally lose their chokehold on this district, this is it.
Either the Dems have given up on these races or the Dem candidates there have adequate funds. I suspect that the former is true. So, the way I see it, with these 19 races, we are half the way there.
Joe Biden expects Democrat gains in House and Senate.
Joe Biden expects parapalegic to stand.
Joe Biden....as a VP makes AlGore look like Albert Einstein.
First, as to the sudden disappearance of the Dems...maybe you got something. Like you said, Coons is inspiring nobody, a big zero, totally non-charismatic blotto burger. Whereas COD has a bright smile and people are naturally drawn to her. The comparison between the two is just so obvious.
As for John Carney, serious...I have YET to see the man, either in any public event, or even in a TV ad. They have some, but there's no Carney in them. Another nothing burger whereas Glen Urquhart is just the nicest fellow, very personable.
This is not to say that COD or Urquhart are hiding out in any form or fashion.
It's just odd.
And so before my nap, a look at my political album, you should smile
Below, in 2005, ME, granddaughter....and Christine O'Donnell! Yes I can say I knew her when...
Below, COD with grandaughter from this past August.
Below, just for grins, granddaughter and Glen Urquhart! Yes that's former VA Senator Allen holding granddaughter
Finally, for giggles and grins...ME....with Mike Castle! Well hell no I'm not proud of it but once upon a time I really tried. The man kept slapping me in the face so now he's outta there.!
Sorry....as for the DuPont endorsement, it sure won’t hurt.
I think the DuPont endorsement helps soothe angry Del GOP voters as much as anything.
The fine, fine Mike Castle STILL has not endorsed COD, this after all the years we supported him as he constantly slapped us in the face.
Actually I’m not sure we do disagree.
I said I thought the races lean Democrat so hey,maybe we’re talking by degree. I do NOT think it will be a rout but if you held a gun to my head, I’d say most likely the Dems will pick up both Del seats....more’s the pity. Still, seriously, Castle is gone and that means so much.
As for Bonini....that Flowers fellow is in heap big trouble I hear, something about beating women.
And you’re right, the Del GOP finally collapsed.
Good news from Illinois. Bod Dold in the 10th District has an excellent new ad running called “Seals for Dold” Check it out:
Finally some creativity from the Dold camp instead of the Mark Kirk-lite message. “Seals for Dold”, love the play on words and it hammers home the point about what kind of person Dan Seals really is.
Glad to see the Dold campaign is waking up and finding new ways to reach out to 10th District voters in the final week. Hope he can pull this off and step out of Kirk’s shadow to be his own man.
Wow..106 races in play!
I’d thought it would be closer to 80 races, the one disadvantage we have is the Dhimmis have put their cash to work and that has kept some races in the “D” column that otherwise would not be there.
Bergmann Challenges Cohen in Ninth District (TN)(Arrogant Dem Refuses To Debate Black Conservative)