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And just for reference here is the ranked list of our 106 Key House Races. We now have 99 Dems at risk and just 7 Republicans - and only 4 of those seem seriously threatened.

Rank Experts Democrat Seat Republican Avg. Experts District
1 LA 3 Ravi Sangisetty Open D Jeff Landry 2.2 Likely R LA 3
2 NY 29 Mathew Zeller Open D Tom Reed 2.2 Likely R NY 29
3 TN 6 Brett Carter Open D Diane Black 2.2 Likely R TN 6
4 AR 2 Joyce Elliott Open D Tim Griffin 2.0 Likely R AR 2
5 IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Incumbent D Adam Kinzinger 1.8 Likely R IL 11
6 IN 8 W. Trent Van Haaften Open D Dr. Larry Bucshon 1.8 Likely R IN 8
7 KS 3 Stephene Moore Open D Kevin Yoder 1.8 Likely R KS 3
8 OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Incumbent D Steve Stivers 1.7 Likely R OH 15
9 CO 4 Betsy Markey Incumbent D Cory Gardner 1.5 Leans R CO 4
10 PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Incumbent D Mike Kelly 1.5 Leans R PA 3
11 TN 8 Roy Herron Open D Stephen Fincher 1.5 Leans R TN 8
12 WA 8 Suzan DelBene Incumbent R Dave Reichert 1.5 Leans R WA 8
13 FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Incumbent D Sandy Adams 1.3 Leans R FL 24
14 AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent D Paul Gosar 1.2 Leans R AZ 1
15 FL 25 Joe Garcia Open R David Rivera 1.2 Leans R FL 25
16 NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent D Frank Guinta 1.2 Leans R NH 1
17 OH 1 Steve Driehaus Incumbent D Steve Chabot 1.2 Leans R OH 1
18 TX 17 Chet Edwards Incumbent D Bill Flores 1.2 Leans R TX 17
19 CA 3 Ami Bera Incumbent R Dan Lungren 1.0 Leans R CA 3
20 FL 8 Alan Grayson Incumbent D Daniel Webster 1.0 Leans R FL 8
21 MD 1 Frank Kratovil Incumbent D Andy Harris 1.0 Leans R MD 1
22 FL 2 Allen Boyd Incumbent D Steve Southerland 0.8 Leans R FL 2
23 MI 1 Gary McDowell Open D Dr. Daniel Benishek 0.8 Leans R MI 1
24 PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Incumbent D Lou Barletta 0.8 Leans R PA 11
25 VA 2 Glenn Nye Incumbent D Scott Rigell 0.8 Leans R VA 2
26 VA 5 Tom Perriello Incumbent D Robert Hurt 0.8 Leans R VA 5
27 WA 3 Denny Heck Open D Jaime Herrera 0.8 Leans R WA 3
28 AR 1 Chad Causey Open D Rick Crawford 0.7 Leans R AR 1
29 NM 2 Harry Teague Incumbent D Steve Pearce 0.7 Leans R NM 2
30 WI 7 Julie Lassa Open D Sean Duffy 0.7 Leans R WI 7
31 MS 1 Travis Childers Incumbent D Alan Nunnelee 0.5 Toss-Up MS 1
32 ND AL Earl Pomeroy Incumbent D Rick Berg 0.5 Toss-Up ND AL
33 PA 7 Bryan Lentz Open D Pat Meehan 0.5 Toss-Up PA 7
34 PA 8 Patrick Murphy Incumbent D Mike Fitzpatrick 0.5 Toss-Up PA 8
35 AZ 5 Harold Mitchell Incumbent D David Schweikert 0.3 Toss-Up AZ 5
36 CO 3 John Salazar Incumbent D Scott Tipton 0.3 Toss-Up CO 3
37 IL 14 Bill Foster Incumbent D Randy Hultgren 0.3 Toss-Up IL 14
38 NC 8 Larry Kissell Incumbent D Harold Johnson 0.3 Toss-Up NC 8
39 NH 2 Annie Kuster Open D Charlie Bass 0.3 Toss-Up NH 2
40 NY 19 John Hall Incumbent D Nan Hayworth 0.3 Toss-Up NY 19
41 OH 16 John Boccieri Incumbent D Jim Renacci 0.3 Toss-Up OH 16
42 SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Incumbent D Mick Mulvaney 0.3 Toss-Up SC 5
43 SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Incumbent D Kristi Noem 0.3 Toss-Up SD AL
44 WI 8 Steve Kagen Incumbent D Reid Ribble 0.3 Toss-Up WI 8
45 HI 1 Colleen Hanabusa Incumbent R Charles Djou 0.2 Toss-Up HI 1
46 AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Incumbent D Jesse Kelly 0.2 Toss-Up AZ 8
47 CA 11 Jerry McNerney Incumbent D David Harmer 0.2 Toss-Up CA 11
48 GA 8 Jim Marshall Incumbent D Austin Scott 0.2 Toss-Up GA 8
49 IN 9 Baron Hill Incumbent D Todd Young 0.2 Toss-Up IN 9
50 MI 7 Mark Schauer Incumbent D Tim Walberg 0.2 Toss-Up MI 7
51 NV 3 Dina Titus Incumbent D Dr. Joe Heck 0.2 Toss-Up NV 3
52 NY 23 Bill Owens Incumbent D Matt Doheny 0.2 Toss-Up NY 23
53 PA 10 Chris Carney Incumbent D Tom Marino 0.2 Toss-Up PA 10
54 WV 1 Mike Oliverio Open D David B. McKinley 0.2 Toss-Up WV 1
55 AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D Martha Roby 0.0 Toss-Up AL 2
56 FL 22 Ron Klein Incumbent D Allen West 0.0 Toss-Up FL 22
57 IL 10 Dan Seals Open R Bob Dold 0.0 Toss-Up IL 10
58 IL 17 Phil Hare Incumbent D Bobby Schilling 0.0 Toss-Up IL 17
59 OH 18 Zach Space Incumbent D Bob Gibbs 0.0 Toss-Up OH 18
60 TN 4 Lincoln Davis Incumbent D Dr. Scott Desjarlais 0.0 Toss-Up TN 4
61 TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Incumbent D Quico Canseco 0.0 Toss-Up TX 23
62 MA 10 William Keating Open D Jeff Perry -0.2 Toss-Up MA 10
63 OR 5 Kurt Schrader Incumbent D Scott Bruun -0.2 Toss-Up OR 5
64 NJ 3 John Adler Incumbent D Jon Runyan -0.3 Toss-Up NJ 3
65 NY 24 Mike Arcuri Incumbent D Richard Hanna -0.3 Toss-Up NY 24
66 GA 2 Sanford Bishop Incumbent D Mike Keown -0.5 Toss-Up GA 2
67 MO 4 Ike Skelton Incumbent D Vicky Hartzler -0.5 Toss-Up MO 4
68 NY 20 Scott Murphy Incumbent D Chris Gibson -0.5 Toss-Up NY 20
69 PA 12 Mark Critz Incumbent D Timothy Burns -0.7 Leans D PA 12
70 IA 3 Leonard Boswell Incumbent D Brad Zaun -0.7 Leans D IA 3
71 KY 6 Ben Chandler Incumbent D Andy Barr -0.7 Leans D KY 6
72 NM 1 Martin Heinrich Incumbent D Jon Barela -0.7 Leans D NM 1
73 NY 1 Tim Bishop Incumbent D Randy Altschuler -0.7 Leans D NY 1
74 IN 2 Joe Donnelly Incumbent D Jackie Walorski -0.8 Leans D IN 2
75 OH 6 Charlie Wilson Incumbent D Bill Johnson -0.8 Leans D OH 6
76 VA 9 Rick Boucher Incumbent D Morgan Griffith -0.8 Leans D VA 9
77 CT 4 Jim Himes Incumbent D Dan Debicella -1.0 Leans D CT 4
78 ID 1 Walter Minnick Incumbent D Raul Labrador -1.0 Leans D ID 1
79 VA 11 Gerald Connolly Incumbent D Keith Fimian -1.0 Leans D VA 11
80 WA 2 Rick Larsen Incumbent D John Koster -1.0 Leans D WA 2
81 AZ 7 Raúl Grijalva Incumbent D Ruth McClung -1.2 Leans D AZ 7
82 CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Incumbent D Van Tran -1.2 Leans D CA 47
83 CT 5 Christopher Murphy Incumbent D Sam Caligiuri -1.2 Leans D CT 5
84 MI 9 Gary Peters Incumbent D "Rocky" Raczowski -1.2 Leans D MI 9
85 MN 1 Tim Walz Incumbent D Randy Demmer -1.2 Leans D MN 1
86 MS 4 Gene Taylor Incumbent D Steven Palazzo -1.2 Leans D MS 4
87 NY 13 Mike McMahon Incumbent D Mike Grimm -1.2 Leans D NY 13
88 CA 20 Jim Costa Incumbent D Andy Vidak -1.3 Leans D CA 20
89 DE AL John Carney Open R Glen Urquhart -1.3 Leans D DE AL
90 LA 2 Cedric Richmond Incumbent R Joseph Cao -1.3 Leans D LA 2
91 NY 25 Dan Maffei Incumbent D Ann Marie Buerkle -1.3 Leans D NY 25
92 NC 2 Bob Etheridge Incumbent D Renee Ellmers -1.5 Leans D NC 2
93 NC 7 Mike McIntyre Incumbent D Ilario Pantano -1.5 Leans D NC 7
94 NC 11 Heath Shuler Incumbent D Jeff Miller -1.5 Leans D NC 4
95 WI 3 Ron Kind Incumbent D Dan Kapanke -1.5 Leans D WI 3
96 CO 7 Ed Perlmutter Incumbent D Ryan Frazier -1.7 Likely D CO 7
97 OH 13 Betty Sutton Incumbent D Tom Ganley -1.7 Likely D OH 13
98 PA 4 Jason Altmire Incumbent D Keith Rothfus -1.7 Likely D PA 4
99 RI 1 David Cicilline Open D John Loughlin -1.7 Likely D RI 1
100 WV 3 Nick Rahall Incumbent D "Spike" Maynard -1.8 Likely D WV 3
101 IA 1 Bruce Braley Incumbent D Ben Lange -2.0 Likely D IA 1
102 IA 2 Dave Loebsack Incumbent D Marianneette Miller Meeks -2.0 Likely D IA 2
103 PA 17 Tim Holden Incumbent D David Argall -2.0 Likely D PA 17
104 MN 8 Jim Oberstar Incumbent D Chip Cravaack -2.2 Likely D MN 8
105 NY 22 Maurice Hinchey Incumbent D George Phillips -2.2 Likely D NY 22
106 IL 8 Melissa Bean Incumbent D Joe Walsh -2.3 Likely D IL 8

1 posted on 10/27/2010 8:46:31 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: 100%FEDUP; 1010RD; 101voodoo; 1035rep; 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten; 23 Everest; 2A Patriot; ...

2 posted on 10/27/2010 8:48:57 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

Keep us posted — thanks — hopefully both MN-1 and MN-8 will evolve to a Toss-Up


3 posted on 10/27/2010 8:53:36 AM PDT by mwl8787
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To: InterceptPoint

Hate to get giddy here-—have been let down before-—but another analysis of only the MOST RECENT POLLS showed 99 seats with the GOP leading and another 10 in striking distance.


9 posted on 10/27/2010 9:03:57 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: InterceptPoint

Thanks for this.

Couple of notes from here in the swamps of Delaware.

Kratovil is toast. Your grid says the district leans Republican....leaning my right eyeball. That happens to be my old district in Merryland when oncit I lived there. VERY conservative, the gerrymandered district spans from Anne Arundel County to Merryland’s eastern shore. They lost their mind last time when they elected Kratovil but take this to the bank, the natives are restless, they got pitchforks and tarbuckets, they’re ready to light the fire and it’s GOODBYE KRATOVIL!

Now I know the O’Donnell race is a senate race and not part of this grid. I’d been lamenting the lack of polls in the Coons/O’Donnell race though I have a theory on those same lack of polls. Ask me about it sometime.

But I note that here on your grid so gracefully provided, there’s NOTHING ABOUT THE DELAWARE HOUSE RACE!

I know the COD thing is sucking all of the oxygen out of the air but there is a very important House race going on here in Delaware. Del only has ONE seat in the House of Reps, formerly occupied by the infamous Mike Castle who is, nameofthefather,sonandholyghost, now history. Thus THAT house seat could turn if the pub running now, one Glen Urquhart, who I adore by the way, doesn’t win over the Dem contender, former Del loot-gov John Carney.

On your grid there’s no polls for this race either!

Well I got some thoughts on that too but with Delaware being the focus of attention what with Christine O’Donnell they so love to mock, and this really big House race when you think about it not that poor ole Glen gets any attention with COD taking up all the publicity space...you’d think they’d have SOMETHING on these races, huh?


13 posted on 10/27/2010 9:05:46 AM PDT by Fishtalk
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To: InterceptPoint
As a former Dakotan, I'm very sorry to see the RATs up a point or two in both Dakotas. I can only theorize the reason is that they think the pork these blue dogs bring home is more valuable to them than the damage they do to the rest of the country.

Unfortunately, this probably means ObaMao's misery hasn't sufficiently affected the Dakotas yet.

21 posted on 10/27/2010 9:43:11 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: InterceptPoint

I’ll be interested to see what happens in the North Carolina 4th. The execrable mega-liberal David Price is in the brawl of his life with B.J. Lawson...since it’s not on these lists, I assume that outside polls are showing it as a safe retention for Price even though Lawson’s polling shows him right there.

Price will not be able to ride the racial Obama wave here in heavily-black Durham this year (68-28 Obama in 2008), and I expect his smelly hippie base over in Chapel Hell and Carrboro aren’t exactly motivated right now. I don’t think he’ll lose, there’s just too much of a combination of college liberals and black racist Democrats to overcome. But if there is any year that the Rats could finally lose their chokehold on this district, this is it.

}:-)4


41 posted on 10/27/2010 11:14:42 AM PDT by Moose4 ("By all that you hold dear on this good Earth, I bid you stand, Men of the West!")
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To: InterceptPoint

Thank you for the continuing updates!

I hope you do a thread showing all the winners (main list
and tier2) .... maybe start a thread election night.

I think your effort has helped keep people energized & hopeful.

Our campaign staff has posted links to your KHR site on their main site & their facebook..recognizing the grassroots efforts, and your one-stop-shopping for info.

NY20 is pushing hard to turn this district back to RED; you know the dems are nervous for their pelosibluelapdog dem murphy...cuz they’re sending Bubba up here to GOTV

Great job to the team at our very own FReepers @ KHR!

~Kate


52 posted on 10/27/2010 1:17:33 PM PDT by Hush44 (http://www.chrisgibsonforcongress.com/)
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To: InterceptPoint

You’ve got CA-20 as Leans D. You might want to check:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2614636/posts


54 posted on 10/27/2010 1:35:46 PM PDT by mlo
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To: InterceptPoint

bump for later. thanks for the post!


55 posted on 10/27/2010 2:04:18 PM PDT by the crow (If I don't have a right to play defense, then I'll go on offense. - Enterprise)
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To: InterceptPoint; randita
Using these polls and last Saturday's expert assessments, the GOP gain goes up by one to 50. The P10 Gain is 46; the P90 Gain is 55.

-PJ

64 posted on 10/27/2010 6:34:26 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ("Comprehensive" reform bills only end up as incomprehensible messes.)
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To: InterceptPoint

Patrick Murphy (PA-8) has a problem. A vote fraud scandal is breaking out involving his campaign manager. Murphy is going down hard!


66 posted on 10/27/2010 6:44:14 PM PDT by Fresh Wind (King: "I have a dream"...Sharpton: "I want a check")
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To: InterceptPoint

Thanks for the ping. Dems are spending alot of money on candidates in IL8, 10 and 14. Glad to see the races are so close. Went to a rally tonight, got to hear the soon-to-be Rep. Adam Kinzinger from IL-11. He’ll make the people of the district proud!


68 posted on 10/27/2010 7:55:57 PM PDT by Fu-fu2
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