Posted on 10/28/2010 5:49:03 AM PDT by randita
The number “79” has stuck in my mind for about 6 weeks as a gain in the house. No specific information, just a hunch.
I have no clue what will happen in the senate. I expect heavy and widespread democrat cheating in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and California.
There was a column on national review online a few week ago..”The 70% rule”...looked back at all the wave elections..the ones where both the House and Senate switched..in every case...about 70% of the “seats in play” changed hands..Now, admittedly, “seats in play” can be vague..but this year, we see, from many political analysts, a range from 80-110...so that could give us a 56-77 seat pick-up...
On the House, I think he’s low. I’m thinking GOP picks up 80+ seats, and it could be quite a few more, possibly 100.
On the Senate I think he’s close, but I think WV will be a GOP pickup, and I think WA is a likely pickup for +9. The X factor is voter fraud in King County which could wind up stealing it for the rats.
I just don’t see CA going GOP although I would dearly love to see Boxer go down.
These are gut feel calls...your milage may vary.
The percentage of voting-age citizens who actually cast ballots has been in the low to mid 50 percent range in presidential years, and in the high 30s in elections like this one. You are, I believe, quite correct in noting that there is a lot of room on the upside.
That means that about 1/6 or 16% of voters think enough of the process to drag their butts to the polls to vote for President, but they can't be bothered two years later. Assuming that about half of that 16% are republicans (or independents who are now leaning republican) who are extremely motivated, we could get an off-year number that could be as high as 45% (or even more.) That would make all of the current predictions south of optimistic Dick Morris seem way too conservative and not Conservative enough.
They did field a good candidate in O’Donnell, she saved us from Castle.
**********************
Christine O’Donnell has already done two superb things, one which will have a long lasting effect. She has ousted Castle, and she has outed Rove. The GOP “insiders” are revealed for the backstabbing Democrat fifth column that we have increasingly suspected. Now there is zero doubt.
The revelation of Rove’s et al’s determined opposition completely changes the way things go forward. From now on, the fight against the statist ruling class within the GOP will be as fiercely fought as the battle against the leftist-statist Democrats. Crist and Murkowski helped this along, but they were self interested officeholders. Rove reveals the corrupted institution, the quislings within. Now the masks are off and the daggers drawn.
THANK YOU ROVE, YOU MAGNIFICENT TURDBLOSSOM!
don’t get me started..
We could have found a strong conservative candidate instead of O’Donnell (let’s be honest, she is an awful candidate and losing by a landslide).
Even Castle would have been better than the Marxist-D candidate (vote for Senate Majority Leader is the most important one, along with voting with conservatives 40% of votes).
Losing the control of Senate by 1 seat (because of DE disaster) may be fun for you, but I’m not amused. Nor is the country.
...and delivered us unto Coons.
I say 65+ in the House
7-8+ in the Senate
Governors +7 (but don’t know this too well... have been paying more attention the House and Senate)
***** Anyone want to start a predictions thread?
“So WHY DIDN’T THEY?”
This is the question we all can think for the next two years, under the rule of Senate Majority Leader Schumer.
Gee, I guess I have been over-Obamacized. I misread the report as the Crystal Blow report. Or have I been over-Sinclairicized?
Who do you think would have "control of the Senate" if Castle would have won? Certainly not conservatives and probably not even Republicans. Being beat over the head with Castle's liberal votes proving "bipartisanship" also would not have been "amusing".
Castle was not conservative, but he was from GOP and would have voted for GOP Senate Majority Leader (the most important vote) allowing GOP enormous amount of control. We would not have filibuster-proof control anyway.
Based on his earlier votes, he would have voted with GOP often (say, 40% of important votes, compared to Coons 0%). Scott Brown had already voted against GOP several times, but I still like him. Fred Thompson voted against conservatives several times with in your face attitude (free speech restrictions etc Centrist Coalition bs), but he was still better than Dem candidate.
DE is deep-blue state. Conservatives have little chance there, only outstanding candidates (say, Marco Rubio) would have any chance. Bad jokes like O’Donnell are losing by landslide.
And won’t Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins still have seats in the Senate? Not to mention Scott Brown and Lindsey Graham. So, control will be effectively Democratic for a while longer even if the Reps do win 10+ seats. The only difference will be who wields the gavel in the committees. This is not a trivial difference, but the rubber meets the road on the floor in the Senate. It’s in the House where committee chairmanship is vital.
We should know more today. The Wilmington paper reported today that the Frankin & Marshall poll has been updated (she was behind by something like 18% last time)and the results will be reported at a presser at 11:30 this morning. We’ll see if this race has tightened as much as we all hope it has. The poll’s turnout model is suspect, but the % improvement, if any, would be relevant.
Well, Alaska is a win/win. Miller may be self destructing, but if Murkowski wins it's still an (R) hold.
I think we are likely to win in IL. Kirk is a RINO, but it's still a win and a vote for McConnell.
NY seems to have been a wasted opportunity. DioGuardi just hasn't caught on at all.
Delaware was a self inflicted wound. To turn an almost sure win with an imperfect candidate into a certain defeat with a candidate that meets some purity test but has no chance of victory was just dumb.
So yeah, hopefully next cycle we can get some more competitive candidates in places like New York, Delaware, etc.
“If the American people are angry enough at how they are being lied to by MaObama, the Democrats and the Media, particularly, they see the real truth about this economy, it will be Democrat road kill”
If they were, they’d all be FREEPERS. So we still have work to do.
From what I've seen, the numbers are reasonably straightforward for most of the Senate races. For the close ones, I suppose it will come down to whatever "October surprises" are sprung today or tomorrow.
I'll be expecting something of the sort here in Colorado, regarding Ken Buck. Michael Bennet has been going with the "too extreme" theme for weeks now, with good effect.
As an example, Bennet just came out with an ad featuring a Buck statement that he "opposes separation of church and state." Buck is now in full back-pedaling mode, of course. Again. After having spent several days back-pedaling from his unsolicited and unneccessary comments on homosexuality and same-sex marriage.
There's also a story about how Buck refused to prosecute a rape case, back in 2005... the decision may have been OK or shaky or wrong, depending on what side of the story you most believe. That story hasn't made big headway, but it's out there.
The problem is, Buck has made so many unguarded and ill-advised comments in his campaign, that there's a wealth of things to choose from. You have to figure that Bennet's campaign is saving the best for last. I guess we'll find out today or tomorrow...
And here's a thought....the GOP gubernatorial candidate in Hawaii in only a few points down..th race is winnable...and Hawaii's TWO Dem senators have a combined age close to Methusaleh....no way wishing anyone ill, but actuarial tables may come into play unexpectedly..
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