Posted on 10/30/2010 12:45:31 PM PDT by WebFocus
The controversy over whether Bill Clinton urged Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek to drop out of the Florida Senate race in order to help Gov. Charlie Crist has caused an understandable wave of interest in the race.
All sorts of questions are now being asked about what happened, who was involved, and whether Meek was actually on the cusp of withdrawing.
The more apt question, though, is whether it would have mattered.
Let's take a look at what polling data tells us on that question.
The last pollster to look at a Rubio-Crist matchup without Meek was the automated and Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, which showed the race deadlocked at 46 percent. With Meek in the race, the same poll showed Rubio at 44 percent, Crist at 33 percent and Meek at 21 percent. That's a net gain of 11 points for Crist without Meek in the race.
That's also pretty consistent with where the candidates stand on the ideological spectrum. Very few Meek voters would be likely to switch to Rubio, given that Rubio is an unapologetic conservative and Meek is a standard issue Democrat.
Given the choice, most Meek voters would have been faced with either abstaining, voting for Crist, or voting for a Democratic nominee who remains on the ballot but has withdrawn from the race. Those voters would still likely show up at the polls, though, given a hotly contested governor's race that is going down to the wire, so they might have gone for Crist in big numbers even if there wasn't much enthusiasm for his candidacy.
But even if a Meek exit would have drawn the race to a virtual tie, that's not the same as putting it in the toss-up column.
(Excerpt) Read more at voices.washingtonpost.com ...
Rubio 2010: Inherit the Meek.
If it is perceived that Meeks was forced out by the Dem establishment, many black voters stay home...
No...A third to a half have already voted..
Any political party that considers a vote for Crisp after this is a party of degenerates who will get burned in the end. Remember this. Crisp has no allegiance to anyone but himself.
Why the heck would anyone trust him?
Think Arlen.
A black voter vote for orange boy?? Hell no.
EXACTLY!!!!!!
This move would have ended the Governors race too.
Could you imagine the explosion of MSM outrage if Bush visited a Black Republican and asked him to drop out to facilitate an independent win?
Lets not kid ourselves. The RSCC, RNC elites love Crist. Steele, Cornyn, McConnel and the DC Republican elites did everything to dump on Rubio. The former chair of the FlGOP...now awaiting jail time, tried his best to run Rubio off.
Meek should have demanded Crist drop out LOL.
Rubio has a proven tract record. He is in for a rough time with sitting Republican Senators that want to keep their little kingdoms.
I blame all the stupid FL GOP voters who put him in the Governor’s mansion in the first place. They had a more conservative candidate back in 2006 but they let themselves be snookered by ol’ Charlie.
You are correct, NRSC. They made donations to Crist during the primary. Steele came here twice IIRC during that time. The former Chair of the state party was removed and the rest is history. I had read where the NRSC had asked Crist to return the money but by that time it was way too late.
Some very angry Republicans/conservatives here re took control. Anger was directed at Crist and the national Republicans for interfering in primaries.
Again you are correct about Crist popularity but after he sided with the teachers union it was down hill from then on.
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