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Could a Meek departure have given Democrats a chance in Florida?
Washington Post ^ | 10/30/2010 | Aaron Blake

Posted on 10/30/2010 12:45:31 PM PDT by WebFocus

The controversy over whether Bill Clinton urged Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek to drop out of the Florida Senate race in order to help Gov. Charlie Crist has caused an understandable wave of interest in the race.

All sorts of questions are now being asked about what happened, who was involved, and whether Meek was actually on the cusp of withdrawing.

The more apt question, though, is whether it would have mattered.

Let's take a look at what polling data tells us on that question.

The last pollster to look at a Rubio-Crist matchup without Meek was the automated and Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, which showed the race deadlocked at 46 percent. With Meek in the race, the same poll showed Rubio at 44 percent, Crist at 33 percent and Meek at 21 percent. That's a net gain of 11 points for Crist without Meek in the race.

That's also pretty consistent with where the candidates stand on the ideological spectrum. Very few Meek voters would be likely to switch to Rubio, given that Rubio is an unapologetic conservative and Meek is a standard issue Democrat.

Given the choice, most Meek voters would have been faced with either abstaining, voting for Crist, or voting for a Democratic nominee who remains on the ballot but has withdrawn from the race. Those voters would still likely show up at the polls, though, given a hotly contested governor's race that is going down to the wire, so they might have gone for Crist in big numbers even if there wasn't much enthusiasm for his candidacy.

But even if a Meek exit would have drawn the race to a virtual tie, that's not the same as putting it in the toss-up column.

(Excerpt) Read more at voices.washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: charliecrist; florida; kendricmeek; marcorubio

1 posted on 10/30/2010 12:45:35 PM PDT by WebFocus
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To: WebFocus
No.


2 posted on 10/30/2010 12:47:39 PM PDT by darkwing104 (Lets get dangerous)
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To: WebFocus

Rubio 2010: Inherit the Meek.


3 posted on 10/30/2010 12:49:14 PM PDT by RichInOC (No! BAD Rich! (What'd I say?))
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To: WebFocus

If it is perceived that Meeks was forced out by the Dem establishment, many black voters stay home...


4 posted on 10/30/2010 12:50:23 PM PDT by BigEdLB (Now there ARE 1,000,000 regrets - but it may be too late.)
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To: RichInOC

No...A third to a half have already voted..


5 posted on 10/30/2010 12:50:34 PM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: WebFocus

Any political party that considers a vote for Crisp after this is a party of degenerates who will get burned in the end. Remember this. Crisp has no allegiance to anyone but himself.

Why the heck would anyone trust him?

Think Arlen.


6 posted on 10/30/2010 12:54:04 PM PDT by dforest
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To: WebFocus

A black voter vote for orange boy?? Hell no.


7 posted on 10/30/2010 1:08:55 PM PDT by Cheetahcat (Zero the Wright kind of Racist! We are in a state of War with Democrats)
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To: BigEdLB

EXACTLY!!!!!!

This move would have ended the Governors race too.


8 posted on 10/30/2010 1:16:21 PM PDT by LeonardFMason
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To: WebFocus

Could you imagine the explosion of MSM outrage if Bush visited a Black Republican and asked him to drop out to facilitate an independent win?


9 posted on 10/30/2010 1:22:27 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: LeonardFMason
Although the sense that Meek's share is perfectly additive to Crist is debatable, it's an entirely moot point now. They would have had to do this before early voting (which ends tomorrow) and they would have had to do it without Bill Clinton's ham-handed muffing of the process. Adios to Mr. Crist (a spineless opportunist) and welcome to the national stage a promising new leader - Marco Rubio. Soon to be Senator-elect Marco Rubio. Amen to that!
10 posted on 10/30/2010 1:27:24 PM PDT by Wally_Kalbacken
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To: indylindy

Lets not kid ourselves. The RSCC, RNC elites love Crist. Steele, Cornyn, McConnel and the DC Republican elites did everything to dump on Rubio. The former chair of the FlGOP...now awaiting jail time, tried his best to run Rubio off.

Meek should have demanded Crist drop out LOL.
Rubio has a proven tract record. He is in for a rough time with sitting Republican Senators that want to keep their little kingdoms.


11 posted on 10/30/2010 2:07:57 PM PDT by rrrod (at home in Medellin Colombia)
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To: rrrod
They may have loved him, but there is no reason to continue loving someone who jumps ship and will caucus with the opposing party - in this case, unlike in others, Crist literally stabbed all of those who backed him in the back, rather than just losing to a candidate they didn't prefer in a primary. Previously Crist was also campaigning anti-stimulus, pro-family, pro-life, etc. He's totally flipped on everything. Oddly enough, Crist's entry into the race initially is likely is why no higher profile Democrats bothered to go for it given Crist's huge popularity at the time...given what he tried to do to torpedo a Republican victory, it is kind of justice in of itself that he, himself, intially gave a more conservative Republican an advantage back from the time he was a Republican. By the way...what is the "RSCC" (or do you mean NRSC?), and what evidence do you have that Steele or the RNC was ever involved in the race?
12 posted on 10/30/2010 2:43:13 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: Republican Wildcat

I blame all the stupid FL GOP voters who put him in the Governor’s mansion in the first place. They had a more conservative candidate back in 2006 but they let themselves be snookered by ol’ Charlie.


13 posted on 10/30/2010 3:31:55 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Republican Wildcat

You are correct, NRSC. They made donations to Crist during the primary. Steele came here twice IIRC during that time. The former Chair of the state party was removed and the rest is history. I had read where the NRSC had asked Crist to return the money but by that time it was way too late.

Some very angry Republicans/conservatives here re took control. Anger was directed at Crist and the national Republicans for interfering in primaries.

Again you are correct about Crist popularity but after he sided with the teachers union it was down hill from then on.


14 posted on 10/30/2010 11:14:10 PM PDT by rrrod (at home in Medellin Colombia)
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