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Real Clear Politics: CA senate race moved to "toss up"
Real Clear Politics ^

Posted on 10/31/2010 9:09:22 AM PDT by GOPinCa

Real Clear Politics just moved the California senate race from 'leans Democrat' to 'toss up.' Please help GOTV for Carly Fiorina. We can win this!!

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: 2010midterms; barbaraboxer; boxer; ca2010; carly; carlyfiorina; fiorina; tossups
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1 posted on 10/31/2010 9:09:23 AM PDT by GOPinCa
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To: GOPinCa

That’s still not good. Carly may be tied among living voters, but Boxer has 100% support among the dead who vote. We need to get our real voters to the polls and make sure they outnumber the dead [and illegals]!


2 posted on 10/31/2010 9:11:07 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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To: GOPinCa

People are starting to think about what another term for Jerry Brown will mean. He’s still Gov. Moonbeam, hasn’t changed after all these years.


3 posted on 10/31/2010 9:12:39 AM PDT by excopconservative
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To: GOPinCa

I’m leaning that Carly will win.....Boxer can’t get over the 50% watermark for incumbents, there will be more GOTV for Carly than Boxer and with Whitman having a stronger ground game for Tuesday compared to Brown, that might help Carly as well...It will be hard but I think in the end Boxer is going to lose.


4 posted on 10/31/2010 9:16:04 AM PDT by Bigtigermike
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To: Pollster1

Since the law states that once a person is sworn in after the election, there is nothing that can be done even if fraud is discovered, demand proof that a person is elegible to vote. States need to do this and then fight the battle after the election. I would demand a drivers license or state issued identification at the least.


5 posted on 10/31/2010 9:16:31 AM PDT by RC2
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To: GOPinCa

No tossup here. We may not like to hear this but Boxer will win. She’s been consistently ahead in every poll and it’s not going to suddenly change on election day.


6 posted on 10/31/2010 9:21:58 AM PDT by libh8er
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To: GOPinCa

There aren’t enough informed, smart, legal, living, non-government-dependent voters in CA to elect Whitman or Fiorina. So, they’ll get more of the same.


7 posted on 10/31/2010 9:24:10 AM PDT by clintonh8r ("Let them eat lobster cake." Michele Antoinette, vacation #6.)
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To: libh8er
No tossup here. We may not like to hear this but Boxer will win. She’s been consistently ahead in every poll and it’s not going to suddenly change on election day.

Turn out is everything.

If news of big Republican wins start in the East, it very well could depress and suppress the Boxer support.

8 posted on 10/31/2010 9:24:42 AM PDT by eddie willers
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To: libh8er

In states like ca, ny, etc the repub has to be up by at least 5 top 10 for it to be even close.


9 posted on 10/31/2010 9:25:04 AM PDT by GlockThe Vote
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To: libh8er

Turnout will decide, this is an unusual election year. Carly may just beat the odds. We will see Nov. 2.


10 posted on 10/31/2010 9:27:13 AM PDT by HerrBlucher (Defund, repeal, investigate, impeach, convict, jail, celebrate.)
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To: libh8er

The polls, all of them, see the race the same. But their turnout models are a joke. This race is razor tight, and could go either way.


11 posted on 10/31/2010 9:27:26 AM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: eddie willers
If news of big Republican wins start in the East, it very well could depress and suppress the Boxer support.

That's exactly what I've been saying, but:

1. There's no guarantee that the news from the East will be all THAT great, and

2. Even if Rat turnout is down in CA, we shouldn't be surprised if a little California style vote fraud puts Babs over the top. I can see this one ending with about a 49-47 margin, but there is a chance -- a small one -- that the good guy gets the 49.

12 posted on 10/31/2010 9:31:53 AM PDT by PermaRag (the stock market will stop bleeding when those who manipulate it START bleeding)
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To: GOPinCa
The middle class in California have moved to other states in big numbers. What you have left are poor immigrants (legal & not legal) and the elite Hollyweird bunch and the super rich from the business world.

There isn't much of a chance for a republican to get elected with those odds, sadly!

13 posted on 10/31/2010 9:33:56 AM PDT by blondee123 (Illinois ELECT Adam Kinzinger - http://www.electadam.com/( rid US of marxism!))
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To: GOPinCa; calcowgirl; CounterCounterCulture
Fiorina is pro-amnesty and pro-cap-and-trade; and she talks about "getting things done." If that's her A-list, I'd rather she didn't.

So, tell me why I should be getting all tingly about a RINO that paints the Republican Party as a pack of arrogant corporate elitists? Why do I want another Snowe or Collins? What about judges? What difference does it make with Obama making the appointments? If a Republican flushes him in 2012, do we want a "gang of 15"?

What about treaties? Fiorina is an unrepentant globalist, while actual ratification doesn't carry the weight it once did.

Didn't we learn our lesson with Schwarzenegger? If Davis had tanked the State in another two years, wouldn't we have been in better position to get it back instead of running ANOTHER Wilson clone as our only hope?

Since when have RINOs backed conservative nominees? Look at what has happened to every single conservative nominee for statewide office since Schwarzenegger snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. What have you seen in Delaware? Look at what's happening in Colorado or Florida. Is backing RINOs really worth it when together with Democrats they constitute a governing majority with Republicans taking the blame for the consequences?

Didn't we learn our lesson in 2006?

14 posted on 10/31/2010 9:36:44 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The environment is too complex and too important to manage by central planning.)
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To: GOPinCa

Great overall trend, but I just don’t see CA gong red. That state has disappointed me too many times.


15 posted on 10/31/2010 9:37:49 AM PDT by catfish1957 (Hey algore...You'll have to pry the steering wheel of my 317 HP V8 truck from my cold dead hands)
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To: blondee123
There's a chance,but the Republican is going to be flawed. A social liberal, but fiscal conservative. Then of course, the Republican candidate and their family must be as clean as the wind-driven snow.

Or you can be like Carly and be conservative - and still lose to someone like Boxer.

I haven't seen any negative adds from Fiorina against Boxer. God knows there is enough material.

16 posted on 10/31/2010 9:44:10 AM PDT by muleskinner
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To: Carry_Okie

Yup. What’s the difference between liberal Republicans like Fiorina and Whitman and the Democrats? California Republican voters rejected conservative candidates in their primaries in favor of celebrity candidates with no real principle.

Just like with the current Governor. I can’t say I’m enthused about it and then again the GOP is the Stupid Party.


17 posted on 10/31/2010 9:49:54 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Carry_Okie
Fiorina is pro-amnesty and pro-cap-and-trade

Why do you say that when her websitte says she is clearly against it?

"However, Barbara Boxer’s misguided cap-and-trade legislation will not lead us in that direction, which is why Carly ardently opposes it. This disastrous bill will lead to more job losses for American families and more onerous regulation on our nation’s businesses. In fact, a recent Heritage Foundation report finds that cap-and-trade would cost American families $2,872 every year! Boxer’s cap-and-trade scheme won’t produce a single megawatt of new energy; instead, it will punish manufacturers and small-business owners and put the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage with nations like China and India."

"An effective temporary worker program for seasonal agricultural employees..."

Where do you get Carly is pro-amnesty and pro cap and trade when I just picked these off her website?

18 posted on 10/31/2010 9:56:10 AM PDT by muleskinner
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To: GOPinCa

Five votes for Fiorina from out extended household. We can include all Republicans for that matter.


19 posted on 10/31/2010 10:01:30 AM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: GOPinCa

If Barbara Boxer loses Tuesday, I will be the happiest person on Earth. It will probably be 2 AM in Chicago but I will have fireworks blasting off like the 4th of July!


20 posted on 10/31/2010 10:11:38 AM PDT by Dengar01 (Go Blackhawks!!!)
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To: goldstategop
Yup? No difference between Fiorina and Whitman vs Boxer and Brown?

So you would have 0% from Boxer as opposed to 80% to 90% from Fiorina because you can't get 100%? Then you can flood Fiorina with e-mails, phone calls and letters on the issues you want. It's not that tough, unless you have given up like the French. Are you French?

One thing I see is that you are not in California anymore.

21 posted on 10/31/2010 10:21:41 AM PDT by muleskinner
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To: excopconservative

exactly!! We need to spread Boxer’s indian story all over as fast as we can!!! She and her son and any other accomplices need to go to JAIL!


22 posted on 10/31/2010 10:33:12 AM PDT by watchdogmom
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To: catfish1957
Great overall trend, but I just don’t see CA gong red. That state has disappointed me too many times.

The problem in these statewide races is that, overall, Obama is still fairly popular. Just today he is at 47% Approval in Ras and 47% Approval in Gallup. In states like California and Washington, he is over 50%.

Despite what a disaster Obama and his hideous band of Congressional Democrats have been, almost half the public still stubbornly approves of BHO.

Because a lot of that support is concentrated in urban areas, Obama's fairly high numbers don't help him as much in the House races where his approval among whites is low. But for statewide races, the Democrats benefit massively from the strong support among minority and victim groups.

Overcoming this going forward is going to be a major problem. If we don't start making inroads into at least the Hispanic vote soon, it is going to be next to impossible to win statewide in more and more states.

23 posted on 10/31/2010 10:34:23 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Carry_Okie

Your right we are in between the DEVIL and the deep blue sea here,between the two. If fiorina gets out of hand stomp her the hell out.


24 posted on 10/31/2010 10:34:58 AM PDT by watchdogmom
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To: Dengar01

Yes, ma’am, would be great news to see “Senator” Boxer go down to defeat.

She worked so hard to earn the title of “Senator”. It’s just a thing with her. She loves to hear other people say it.

I hope we can call her by another title soon. Let’s restore the title of “Private Citizen Barbara Boxer” to her.


25 posted on 10/31/2010 10:39:16 AM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: Longbow1969

Yup. That’s why I predict Obama is going to win a second term. He has NY, PA, NJ, IL and CA locked up. Its going to be pretty hard for a GOP presidential candidate to run the table on the Democrats in the mega-states.

That’s about the size of the challenge the GOP has to overcome in 2012 and defeating Obama is still a long-shot, no matter what happens on Tuesday.


26 posted on 10/31/2010 10:43:11 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
Yup. That’s why I predict Obama is going to win a second term. He has NY, PA, NJ, IL and CA locked up. Its going to be pretty hard for a GOP presidential candidate to run the table on the Democrats in the mega-states. That’s about the size of the challenge the GOP has to overcome in 2012 and defeating Obama is still a long-shot, no matter what happens on Tuesday.

I concur.

Demographics are working against us at an astonishing pace. We are headed towards a time where this nation will almost be like 2 entirely different countries - where, unfortunately, traditional, white voters will be in the minority. The country will be in the worst shape it has ever been, yet leftists may still command a majority of the vote for generations to come.

We must find a way to begin reversing this. Blacks are probably a total write off. Hispanics on the other hand are a group we must make inroads with - otherwise more and more states will be lost to us like California.

27 posted on 10/31/2010 10:50:11 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: GOPinCa

Grayson, Frank, Dingell AND Boxer?

That would be a GREAT NIGHT! :D:D:D:D


28 posted on 10/31/2010 10:55:21 AM PDT by Tzimisce (No thanks. We have enough government already. - The Tick)
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To: Carry_Okie

you bloody moron
because she will make mcconnell majority leader.
and every committee chair a non rat.
and she will vote for spending cuts, and tax cuts and not say sooo many ridiculous things like boxer.


29 posted on 10/31/2010 11:06:17 AM PDT by genghis
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To: muleskinner
Why do you say that when her website says she is clearly against it?

Oh really? She's against BOXER'S cap and trade, not cap and trade in principle. See? This is how RINO liars work.

As to amnesty, here is what Fiorina said to a Latino group only less than a week ago,

"Barbara Boxer is not a friend of Latinos. In fact, she has worked against the values Latinos hold sacred. She helped defeat the bipartisan immigration reform bill of 2007 and Boxer opposes a guest worker program. And she has fought to expand abortion and legalize same sex marriage. On November 2nd vote for a Senator who truly values Latinos and who shares Latino values. Vote for a Senator who will defend marriage, who will protect the unborn, and will work to fix our broken immigration system. On November 2nd, vote your values. Vote Carly Fiorina." You were saying?
30 posted on 10/31/2010 11:42:53 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The environment is too complex and too important to manage by central planning.)
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To: genghis
you bloody moron

because she will make mcconnell majority leader.

Yeah, how'd that work out last time? It led directly to a RAT President, House, and Senate.

and every committee chair a non rat.

Yeah, how'd that work out last time? It led directly to a RAT President, House, and Senate.

and she will vote for spending cuts, and tax cuts and not say sooo many ridiculous things like boxer.

I don't buy it. She's a proven prevaricator and a stooge for Juilie Packard.

31 posted on 10/31/2010 11:45:43 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The environment is too complex and too important to manage by central planning.)
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To: GOPinCa

My final GOP numbers, nationwide:

60 Senators (including Carly)
40 Governors (including Meg)
30 Statehouses (not including CA, sadly)
120 Congresscritters (including Gunny Pop CA-51)


32 posted on 10/31/2010 11:46:26 AM PDT by reaganaut (Ex Mormon, now Christian - "I once was lost but now am found, was blind but now I see")
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To: muleskinner
So you would have 0% from Boxer as opposed to 80% to 90% from Fiorina because you can't get 100%?

BS. We'd get at the most 40%. This isn't about purity, this is about insulting our intelligence.

33 posted on 10/31/2010 11:47:11 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The environment is too complex and too important to manage by central planning.)
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To: libh8er

Don’t believe the polls; the Dem always polls a point or two above the actual vote!


34 posted on 10/31/2010 11:49:28 AM PDT by reaganaut (Ex Mormon, now Christian - "I once was lost but now am found, was blind but now I see")
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To: Carry_Okie

-—”So, tell me why I should be getting all tingly about a RINO that paints the Republican Party as a pack of arrogant corporate elitists?”

So what you’re saying is, “Unless I get my way (e.g. get a non-RINO conservative), I don’t want it” — WHICH MEANS YOU’RE SAYING YOU WOULDN’T VOTE FOR A BOXER OPPONENT AND THEREFORE YOU’D RATHER HAVE BOXER.

Be realistic for a change. (I live in Calif and anything we can do to get rid of that moronic Boxer, the better).


35 posted on 10/31/2010 11:49:28 AM PDT by AlanGreenSpam (Obama: The First 'American IDOL' President - sponsored by Chicago NeoCom Thugs)
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To: reaganaut
My final GOP numbers, nationwide: 60 Senators...

Help me out here. If I understand correctly, 19 Dem seats are up for election. Repubs currently have 41 seats. Repubs would have to win EVERY Senate race to get to 60? Is that possible?

36 posted on 10/31/2010 11:58:53 AM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: AlanGreenSpam
So what you’re saying is, “Unless I get my way (e.g. get a non-RINO conservative), I don’t want it” — WHICH MEANS YOU’RE SAYING YOU WOULDN’T VOTE FOR A BOXER OPPONENT AND THEREFORE YOU’D RATHER HAVE BOXER.

For twenty-five years, I went along with the "support the nominee" policy. Then came the Simon election. I have never seen such a screw job on the part of the Party in my life. Since that time, the CAGOP has refused to support a single conservative nominee for statewide office, not one. I'm not doing Charlie Brown any more. Got it?

Be realistic for a change. (I live in Calif and anything we can do to get rid of that moronic Boxer, the better).

In light of the content of that last post, do you see how ridiculous you look to me? For a change? I did that one for twenty-five years! I've had it with the complete lack of "moderate" reciprocity. No more.

My family has five generations in California. I've done more than just about anybody on this forum to roll back leftist policy, having written two books, deferred at least $1.25 million in income, and spent buckets of money in the proving that conservative policies can do a better job of environmental management. For you to say that without checking me out shows you to be shallow, lazy, and arrogant. Why should I listen to you?

37 posted on 10/31/2010 12:10:33 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The environment is too complex and too important to manage by central planning.)
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To: GOPinCa

Yeah, I know. Meg is problematic for conservatives. Carly is problematic for conservatives. I get that. Their being problematic doesn’t make Jerry Brown or Barbara Boxer acceptable. They are not. They just are not. If you’re an real conservative instead of just playing one on teh interwebz, you know why. Especially if you live in California. Especially if you remember Jerry Brown’s first two terms. I especially do not want Lex Luthor there set loose on the state again. And if you’re willing to saddle my state with those two clowns...go find another state to destroy. I kind of like mine.


38 posted on 10/31/2010 12:11:35 PM PDT by RichInOC ("I am Governor Jerry Brown, my aura smiles and never frowns, soon I will be President....")
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To: AlanGreenSpam; muleskinner; genghis
One more thing from this "moron." Why should I support a corporate globalist RINO, who is worth tens of millions, when the NRSC is pouring millions into her campaign while it craps on Christine O'Donnell?

Do you need any more poignant example of why the contract of mutual support that constitutes a political party has been violated by its own leadership? At that point, the contract is void until that leadership has been replaced.

39 posted on 10/31/2010 12:30:35 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The environment is too complex and too important to manage by central planning.)
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To: jjotto

“Repubs would have to win EVERY Senate race to get to 60? Is that possible?”

Well, maybe only with a superwave; I’m sure Carly will make it.

Refuse to count out O’Donnell on the other coast - if she can make it, every Pubbie’s a shoo-in! (It just burns my bacon when conservatives are called stupid for pointing out it’s freedom OF religion, not freedom FROM religion.)


40 posted on 10/31/2010 12:44:36 PM PDT by reaganaut (Ex Mormon, now Christian - "I once was lost but now am found, was blind but now I see")
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To: reaganaut

In blue states people lie to poll takers, it’s like the Bradley affect. They tell the pollster they’re undecided or voting for Boxer, but in the booth they mark Fiorina. Boxer can’t get to 50 and I think she will lose.


41 posted on 10/31/2010 12:56:22 PM PDT by Paddy Irish
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To: Carry_Okie

Why ignore abortion and guns?

Carly Fiorina is running a series of strong pro-life ads, and we all remember her taking a strong pro-gun rights stand in her debates.


42 posted on 10/31/2010 1:58:27 PM PDT by ansel12
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To: ansel12
Why ignore abortion and guns?

That's a fair question I've addressed with respect to Carly before, but since you haven't seen it...

Got a case in the docket capable of forcing the SCOTUS to dump Roe? Think that's going to happen with the current court? Think Obama is going to nominate anybody who would overturn it? Then Carly is irrelevant on abortion for at least one third of her term. By the next election under the current trend, the conservative we'd damned well better have replacing Obama will have a far more friendly Senate than Bush ever saw.

On guns, I'm afraid the O-bot will have done all the necessary damage by signing treaty and Carly knows it. If you think ratification is necessary for Obama to start enforcing the UN Convention on Trading in Small Arms, well, I have bad news for you. Hence her support of liberalizing gun laws is equally irrelevant.

43 posted on 10/31/2010 2:41:59 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The environment is too complex and too important to manage by central planning.)
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To: ansel12; Carry_Okie
Ah, still pushing the faux life propaganda from iCarly that was discredited during the primary? Yeah, some "pro-lifer."
44 posted on 10/31/2010 2:47:14 PM PDT by CounterCounterCulture
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To: AlanGreenSpam

I’m with you! Why is hell would we want one more minute with Boxer? She’s a liberal hack!


45 posted on 10/31/2010 2:48:31 PM PDT by sissyjane (Did you plug the hole yet Daddy????)
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To: Carry_Okie

They never learn. They always live and respond to fear, and will swallow any imposter with sweet-sounding political cliches.

Charlie Brown indeed.


46 posted on 10/31/2010 2:50:19 PM PDT by CounterCounterCulture
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To: CounterCounterCulture

So, you prefer Barbra Boxer?

Is that your sanctimonious message?


47 posted on 10/31/2010 2:51:44 PM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Greetings Jacques. The revolution is coming)
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To: bert

If you’re going to spout stupidities, don’t post to me.


48 posted on 10/31/2010 2:52:59 PM PDT by CounterCounterCulture
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To: CounterCounterCulture

Shove it toots! I’ve had it with Barbara Boxer.


49 posted on 10/31/2010 2:55:47 PM PDT by sissyjane (Did you plug the hole yet Daddy????)
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To: sissyjane

“I’ve had it with Barbara Boxer.”

Me too!


50 posted on 10/31/2010 3:01:03 PM PDT by 1035rep
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