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Polls may mislead in California governor's race
San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 10/31/10 | Debra J. Saunders

Posted on 10/31/2010 9:14:53 AM PDT by SmithL

Former Gov. Pete Wilson is the only politician to have beaten Jerry Brown in an election. In 1982, Wilson, then-San Diego mayor, trounced Brown, then California's bigfoot governor, in the race for U.S. Senate 51 to 45 percent. Now Wilson serves as Meg Whitman's campaign chairman. On Thursday, he told me not to believe polls that show Whitman losing by as much as double digits. Whitman, he says, has a real shot at beating Brown.

Polls that show Whitman losing, Wilson said, "are greatly underestimating the enthusiasm on the part of the Republicans and pretty much a lack of it on the other side."

And: "I think the undecided are going to decide in her favor."

If the polls are right and Brown does win, the big question is: Will Brown conclude that he won because he ran a savvy campaign or that he won largely because Whitman spent $161 million on a dysfunctional campaign?

Maybe both.

Darry Sragow, a former Democratic strategist, is interim director of the Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California poll that shows Brown ahead of Whitman with 52 percent to 39 percent of the vote. (Wilson has real issues with that poll.) While Sragow refused to call the race, and noted that "the unexpected sometimes happens," he believes that Whitman frittered away her credibility during the campaign.

But also, "Jerry Brown won in one very, very important way," Sragow noted. Brown and campaign manager Steve Glazer withstood months of pressure from Democratic operatives who "were beating Jerry on the head and shoulders for not engaging and not spending money."

In the punditry biz, we have a tendency to overplay the importance of campaigns. In California, 44 percent of registered voters are Democrats and 31 percent are Republicans.

(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: ca2010; goldenstate; megwhitman; petewilson; polls; whitman

1 posted on 10/31/2010 9:14:55 AM PDT by SmithL
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To: SmithL

Please, those of you who Twitter or are on Facebook, spread this around!

Reporting Voter Fraud

The Republican Party has set up a National Hotline, which will be staffed with Attorneys to handle polling issues as well as possible voter fraud or intimidation.
1 - 888 - 775 - 8117. IF you even SUSPECT this is happening, PLEASE call for their free advice.

http://www.resistnet.com/


2 posted on 10/31/2010 9:20:32 AM PDT by Mortrey (Impeach President Soros)
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To: SmithL

I don’t know why Whitman hasn’t been a better candidate, but if Californians change out the Governator for the Governhippie, they are nuts.

Moonbeam, your old girlfriend said it best:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr9vKWLgZzo

(yes, she really was that skinny back then...not to mention HOT!)


3 posted on 10/31/2010 9:26:30 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: SmithL

Here’s to some major upsets November 2, even in California.


4 posted on 10/31/2010 9:29:27 AM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard .. Obama: Epic Fail or Bust!!!)
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To: SmithL

Most likely, of the 44%, 15% are illegals. Check ID’s.


5 posted on 10/31/2010 9:31:56 AM PDT by RC2
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To: SmithL

Ive never seen a candidate spend so much money effectively neutralizing herself. She shouldve been running against Sacremento & Swartzennegger as much as Brown. Instead she runs on ‘im Meg Whitman and i made a ton of money at Ebay.


6 posted on 10/31/2010 9:34:05 AM PDT by Maelstorm (Better to keep your enemy in your sights than in your camp expecting him to guard your back.)
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To: SmithL

Never trust polls in states like CA, when they tell you a ‘telephone poll of likely voters’ Just where did they sample these likely voters? It matters a lot! I think the Rasmussen poll is probably the closest and that includes, 2% who want someone else, many of whom may break for one or the other of the main party candidates, and 3% who say they are undecided. With a +/- 4.5% margin of error this is too close to call either way. In reality it is a dead heat.

It is up to all those who do NOT want another dem/lib/progressive to go and vote for Whitman. Maybe not the best in teh world, but she isn’t the person who signed into law the dill act which let CA gov employees unionize and has got us into being bankrupt by public employee pension payments!


7 posted on 10/31/2010 9:35:52 AM PDT by Ruth C (If you chose not to vote, you vote for the most liberal candidates in CA)
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To: SmithL

California deserves EVERY pound of defecatory material they can slap on their heads! They are putrid leftist assholes who live in a some fairy (SF) dream world of make believe.


8 posted on 10/31/2010 9:45:53 AM PDT by Doc Savage (Stay Thirsty My Friend!!)
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To: bigbob

If she was a Dem “WHORE”, she’d win in a slide.
That title is reserved for Moonbeam this go-around.

California has bad karma that it will not lose until it sheds the leftist bent and those they support at the polls.


9 posted on 10/31/2010 9:49:41 AM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard .. Obama: Epic Fail or Bust!!!)
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To: Doc Savage

Excuse me? Some of us Californian are republicans, you might
want to keep that in mind next time you want to insult
all of us.


10 posted on 10/31/2010 10:23:09 AM PDT by psjones (u)
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To: All
Scott Brown (R-Mass) was 9 points down when he snatched the Dem seat Kennedys held for 50 years.

HOW CAN BROWN AFFORD A MILLION DOLLAR HOUSE WITH NO VISIBLE MEANS OF SUPPORT?

The mystery of Jerry Brown's pension (Jerry's a double-dipper)
Orange County Register via DrudgeReport | 8/13/2010 | Brian Joseph
FR Posted on Friday, August 13, 2010 by GVnana

As Cali gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown grabbed the spotlight with his criticism of Bell city officials and their outrageous salaries and pensions, The Orange County Register Watchdog got to wondering: How much will the Democrat for Governor make in retirement?

That, as it turns out, is a very difficult question to answer.

After more than a month of investigation, the Watchdog can only say for certain that Brown and a handful of other top officials are eligible for generous benefits under a special pension fund so obscure that few people in government know how it works and many thought it had been eliminated 20 years ago by outraged voters.

Under the law, Brown should have accrued, at most, 16 years of service credit in this special fund, known as the Legislators’ Retirement System, or LRS. Actuarial statements produced by LRS, however, indicate that an unnamed person of Brown’s age and earning Brown’s exact salary has been credited with 25 to 29 years of service. The difference would mean tens of thousands of dollars in additional pension payments for Brown each year.

Brown’s campaign staff acknowledge the unnamed person sure looks like the gubernatorial candidate but have been unable to explain the discrepancy over service. Officials at the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, which manages LRS, have similarly refused to cooperate ... -snip-

But perhaps most eyebrow-raising is the service of a current LRS member identified in actuarial reports only as 65 years or older with 25 to 29 years of service and a salary of $184,301. -snip-

The person listed in the actuarials appears then to be Brown. -snip-

The only problem is Brown should have only 16 years of LRS-eligible service: four years as Secretary of State (1971 to 1974), eight years as Governor (1975 to 1982) and four years as Attorney General (2007 to 2010). (Excerpt) Read more at taxdollars.ocregister.com ...

11 posted on 10/31/2010 10:27:46 AM PDT by Liz (Nov 2 will be one more stitch in Obama's political shroud.)
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To: SmithL

The media has been caught red-handed trying to fabricate stories against Joe Miller in Alaska. I’m quite sure the California media is doing the same thing. Do not believe anything the media comes out with in the last few days.


12 posted on 10/31/2010 10:31:23 AM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: SmithL
Do they really think a state taxing marijuana will not get the attention of the IRS? Obama just hired an army of IRS agents for this reason. Their identification will be scanned whenever this is purchased and all that information will find it's way to auto insurance companies, worker's compensation liability insurance companies and government agencies. Those people keep feeding the IRS monster. Ask yourself who was busting the alcohol bootleggers... Revenue agents... TEA PARTY TIME !
13 posted on 10/31/2010 3:44:17 PM PDT by Sir Francis Dashwood (Arjuna, why have you have dropped your bow???)
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